2008 Summer Movies [The Hunt for Titanic]

[Ngamer]

The Summer of '08 officially kicked off last night with the release of Iron Man in American theaters. As you may recall from a year back, we had a very enjoyable discussion of the record-setting Summer season of '07, which can be found at

http://perfectdarkelite.yuku.com?topic=1418

It ended up being the biggest season in history, both in terms of money made and overall theater attendance. Well, 2008 isn't going to be smashing those new records, but it's still got a ton of what should be very fun and enjoyable films, including a few that have a chance to really be something special, IMO.

This will be our Summer-long topic to talk about the new movies we see, and also we're going to use this first week to predict the Top Five movies of the season! Plus I'm going to post the results of last year's competition pretty soon. But first off, let's get rolling on that

2008 Summer Movie Preview


NOTE: for these writeups, anything after a $ is in millions of dollars, unless I say otherwise

May 2nd (Week #1)
Iron Man

Read About It: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0371746/
Watch The Trailer: http://ie.youtube.com/watch?v=6Hx6TEqrzHU

What The Heck Is It?
The story of Tony Stark, a genius billionaire who develops an armored suit to become a Marvel superhero.

Why Will It Be Big?
Superheroes have been big business ever since Spidey in '01, and Marvel's track record is especially impressive. $404 for Spidey 1, $373 for S2, $337 for S3, the last X-Men film made $234- heck, even Fantastic Four pulled in over $150. Expect Iron Man to perform more like Spidey and less like the rare underachievers in the genre (like The Hulk and Daredevil).

Why Should I See It?
I absolutely love this trailer; it's my second favorite of the Summer in fact. I originally didn't have much interest in Iron Man, as I never followed Marvel too much outside of Spidey and the X-Men, but between the excellent trailer and the loads of positive hype, I was sold, and ended up attending a midnight showing. And the film did not disappoint! Downey Jr is perfect for the role, the action sequences got the job done, the special effects are superb, and there's plenty more solid characterization than you would expect from a superhero Summer flick. IM comes highly recommended, to say the least!

Speaking of the great trailer, be sure to check out this Onion report on the film if you haven't seen it yet: http://ie.youtube.com/watch?v=YBM3j7x4Lcw

May 9th (Week #2)
Speed Racer

Read About It: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0811080/
Watch The Trailer: http://ie.youtube.com/watch?v=tO2jcwgIi8o

What The Heck Is It?
After conquering the world of the Matrix, the Wachowski Brothers earned their dream project: a chance to reinvent their childhoods with a mega-budget reproduction of old school animation classic Speed Racer.

Why Will It Be Big?
The Matrix became a modern classic after catching fire on DVD, and the three films form one of the most successful trilogies in history ($171-$282-$139 in the US, and a combined $1.62 billion worldwide between the three). The Brothers W continued to do great work with the excellent V for Vendetta, which unfortunately was criminally under-seen ($71)... but with the return to a huge budget and summer tent-pole status, expect big results for Speed.

Why Should I See It?
The acting doesn't look so amazing, your being doubtful of the plot doesn't surprise me... but good heavens, look at those visuals! Sin City and 300 proved that its possible to perfect adapt the graphic novel visual style to the big screen, but no one has been able to successfully adapt the anime style to live action- until now. These races look like F-Zero brought to life. Heck, if that isn't enough to get you to the theater, then... well, I guess it's understandable. But it's more than enough for me!

May 16th (Week #3)
The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian

Read About It: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0499448/
Watch The Trailer: http://ie.youtube.com/watch?v=VqzYukVDqy4

What The Heck Is It?
The four kids from The Lion, The Witch, and the Wardrobe get pulled back into the fantasy world of C.S. Lewis. It's only been a year since their last adventure for them, but 1300 years have passed in Narnia, and (of course) an evil force has taken over in their absence.

Why Will It Be Big?
For some reason, people are shocked when they hear what an enormous success the first Narnia was: it made $292 in the US and was even more well-loved overseas, pulling down $745 worldwide. To put that in perspective, only the first Harry Potter back in '01 ever managed to break $293! It's doubtful that this Narnia will be able to match those huge numbers, but there's a reason why 5 more of these films are in the works; it's because this movie is once again going to be big.

Why Should I See It?
Narnia 1 was no Lord of the Rings, much as it tried to be, but I was still pretty impressed by it back in '05. It looks as though Caspian is going with a darker tone this time around, to match the character's more mature status. No reason to go in expecting anything earth-shattering, but still, I think I'll reread this book and go in hoping to once again enjoy myself inside this dreamworld of magic here in 2008.

May 23rd (Week #4)
Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull

Read About It: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0367882/
Watch The Trailer: http://ie.youtube.com/watch?v=lPTJ4v6KPrg

What The Heck Is It?
After nearly a 20 year absence (The Last Crusade came out all the way back in 1989, if you can believe it), Indiana Jones makes his grand return to the silver screen, and his fourth epic adventure awaits.

Why Will It Be Big?
Crusade made $197 back in '89; a solid total, but keep in mind that would come out to a whooping $340 with today's ticket prices. Indy 4 is going to have a tough time equaling that number, but between the character being so well-loved, having Ford and Spielberg back, the huge sales the trilogy has pulled off on DVD, and nearly 20 year's worth of anticipation and hype, I can't imagine Skull not being an enormous box office success.

Why Should I See It?
Ford still looks great, the trailer is good fun, and it certainly seems that this latest Indy installment is going to be bringing back all of the old school adventure flick charm that everyone except Come loved during the 80s. What's not to like? Nothing!

May 30th (Week #5)
Sex and the City: The Movie

Read About It: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1000774/
Watch The Trailer: uuuurk

What The Heck Is It?
uuuugh

Why Will It Be Big?
noooooooooo

Why Should I See It?
yuuuuuuuck

June 6th (Week #6)
You Don't Mess With The Zohan

Read About It: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0960144/
Watch The Trailer: http://ie.youtube.com/watch?v=jmMXk0bA8gk

What The Heck Is It?
The deadliest Israeli commando of all time (Adam Sandler) fakes his death in order to escape the war and start a new life in New York City, as a hairdresser.

Why Will It Be Big?
Listen, no one has less respect for Adam Sandler than myself, but the guy is box office go- well, maybe not gold, but you could make a case for silver. He's taken four borderline awful films in a row and turned them into big winners (Chuck and Larry $120, Click $137, The Longest Yard $158, 50 First Dates $121); imagine what could happen if this movie isn't quite so awful!

Why Should I See It?
The movie was co-written by two of the funniest men in Hollywood, the legendary Robert Smigel and the new golden boy, Judd Apatow. And the trailer actually makes it look like there could be some promise here... hate to get hopes up too high, but perhaps this could be worth seeing after all.

June 13th (Week #7)
The Incredible Hulk

Read About It: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0800080/
Watch The Trailer: http://ie.youtube.com/watch?v=dUpOhM8Hxx0

What The Heck Is It?
An completely new take on everyone's favorite green monster; Ang Lee's 2003 Hulk has been burned to the ground, as an entirely new cast lead by Edward Norton attempts to reboot the franchise.

Why Will It Be Big?
Everyone thinks of the '03 Hulk as a horrible flop, but really it didn't do THAT awful. The movie pulled in a respectable $132 in the US and ended up at $245 worldwide. Now, it's entirely possible that the negative perception of the last film hurts this one and so it does even worse... but I think people will be willing to forgive and forget, especially after seeing very solid trailers like the one above.

Why Should I See It?
Edward Norton is one of the finest actors of our generation. Even though he seems an odd fit as the Hulk, it might be worth seeing for his presence alone. Also, reports say that the action has been turned up to 11 for this film; in fact, rumor has it that the final confrontation between Hulk his archnemesis The Abomination is a 26 minute slugfest. 26 minutes! Goodness me!

June 20th (Week #8)
Get Smart

Read About It: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0425061/
Watch The Trailer: http://ie.youtube.com/watch?v=4PK7RSEzP9Q

What The Heck Is It?
It was before our time, but Get Smart was a very popular secret agent/James Bondish/early Austin Powersish TV show in the mid-60's that played on Cold War paranoia. Now its being brought into the modern era, with the incredibly likable Steve Carell at the helm.

Why Will It Be Big?
Don't underestimate Carell. Younger viewers loved him on the Daily Show and in The Office, he took The 40 Year Old Virgin to $109 on his charm alone, helped turn Little Miss Sunshine into the indy smash hit of '06, and somehow managed to pull in another $100 for the frankly awful Evan Almighty. That kind of appeal combined with the baby boomers wanting to see their childhood show revived could lead to big success: plus the movie gets to play up the gorgeous Anne Hathaway, the always-funny Alan Arkin, and... should we overlook the importance of the former wrestler who's playing Agent 23?


Why Should I See It?
I don't know. I guess the trailer looks decently funny, doesn't it?


June 27th (Week #9)
WALL*E

Read About It: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0910970/
Watch The Trailer: http://ie.youtube.com/watch?v=fCcCZOSAtxA

What The Heck Is It?
The latest from Pixar, this time telling the story of a robot accidentally left on Earth after the entire human population leaves for another planet. But after hundreds of years alone, WALL*E is thrown into a new adventure...

Why Will It Be Big?
Are you kidding me? Toy Story, $192. A Bug's Life, $163. Monsters Inc., $256. Toy Story 2, $245. The Incredibles, $261. Finding Nemo, $340. Cars, $244. Ratatouille, $206. No other company in history has put together this kind of winning streak, and it likely to never be done again. Pixar is the king of family animation, and the amazing thing is, all they'd have to do to continue printing money would be to churn out movie after movie featuring cute talking animals (like the competition is constantly pushing out- Ice Age, Shrek, Madagascar, Over the Hedge, Chicken Little, etc etc). Instead, they continue to take bold risks and push the medium to new heights with every outing.

Why Should I See It?
Because unlike everyone else out there, Pixar is story-driven. They work on every new character and story for years and years, and THEN sit down to start the animation process (which they also work on for years and years). The resulting quality is unmistakable, as the list of films above can attest to. I for one would be shocked if WALL*E doesn't keep that historic winning streak alive.

Also This Week...
Wanted

Read About It: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0493464/
Watch The Trailer: http://ie.youtube.com/watch?v=O7ftozVc3lI

What The Heck Is It?
Up and coming star James McAvoy gets enlisted into a league of superhero-style assassins by Angelina Jolie and Morgan Freeman. High octane superfights commence.

Why Will It Be Big?
People are generally surprised to hear what a smashing success Mr. and Mrs. Smith ended up being; the movie pulled in $186 and an even more impressive $478 worldwide back in '05. Granted, Angelina isn't going to have Brad Pitt helping her rake in the dough with these new superfights, but I could still see Wanted pulling down some decent cash if the action sequences are as exciting as they look in the trailer.

Why Should I See It?
No one else seems interested in this film, but the trailer has really sold me. That said, I have a weak spot for Angelina and an equally weak spot for The Matrix, so I shouldn't be surprising that Freeman doing his best Fishburne and McAvoy his best Keanu while shots are being fired in bullet time was enough to win me over. So yeah, I've got high hopes that this is going to be a good time at the theaters, though I understand why others would overlook it.

July 4th (Week #10)
Hancock

Read About It: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0448157/
Watch The Trailer: http://ie.youtube.com/watch?v=rZQQgvhn4jg

What The Heck Is It?
Will Smith plays a homeless semi-superhero who causes more trouble than he solves.

Why Will It Be Big?
It shouldn't be. Superhero parodies have already been attempted, and both My Super Ex-Girlfriend and last month's Superhero Movie bombed hard. But it will be. Because two words are attached: Will Smith. A couple years back people started to talk about him being the most bankable movie star of our generation- now he's cemented that title, and no one else is even close. We're talking about a guy who has turned a completely needless and not-very-good sequel into a legitimate $190 blockbuster (Men In Black II), an equally unnecessary and also not so hot sequel into a $137 success (Bad Boys II), who has twice turned flawed SF action set pieces into winners ($144 for I, Robot and an astounding $256 for I Am Legend last Christmas), who catapulted what would have been a generic $70 romantic comedy into a stunning $179 blockbuster (Hitch), and who most impressively of all pushed what should have been a well-review but little seen $15 indy sobber out to an absolutely mind-blowing $164 (The Pursuit of Happyness). PLUS, he's back on his home ground, the fourth of July holiday which he has owned like no one else in history (Independence Day in '96, Men In Black in '97, MiB2 in '02, Robot in '04).

Long story short, don't be surprised when this takes in a huge payday come July.

Why Should I See It?
The trailer looks pretty funny, and I have to admit, those special effects are better than I would have expected. It's a weird role, but it anyone call pull it off, its Smith... I don't know, I'm not entirely sold on the project yet, but it certainly looks like fun.

July 11th (Week #11)
Hellboy II: The Golden Army

Read About It: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0411477/
Watch The Trailer: http://ie.youtube.com/watch?v=G_O0xYCy1cg

What The Heck Is It?
One of the most stunning sequels of all time; not because of its visual effects or subject matter, but rather because it exists at all (about 12 people saw Hellboy in '04). Anyways, HB is the half-son of the devil, but he fights alongside humans against the forces of evil, and faces his biggest challenge here.

Why Will It Be Big?
You wouldn't think it could be... HB1 was one of the weakest of the post-Spidey glut of superhero films, managing only $60 million and doing even worse outside of the US (it didn't quite manage $100 worldwide). But after director Guillermo del Toro stunned audiences everywhere with his violent, brilliant fantasy Pan's Labyrinth in '06, he got the go ahead for HBII, complete with an gigantic increase in budget this time around. I still can't see Army becoming a breakout hit, but it should at least have no trouble outdoing the disappointing showing of the original film.

Why Should I See It?
Hellboy was probably the weirdest post-Spidey superhero movie I've seen. It's very funny in parts, has good action in other parts, but is filled with so many strange creatures and characters and such a wacky plot that I never figured out whether I loved the movie or hated it. Pan was so incredible that I'm going to continue supporting del Toro for the foreseeable future, but whether that means seeing this movie opening weekend, I haven't decided yet.

July 18th (Week #12)
The Dark Knight

Read About It: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0468569/
Watch The Trailer: http://ie.youtube.com/watch?v=WaIR9dAZRR0

What The Heck Is It?
The franchise reboot that kicked off in Batman Begins continues in Knight. This time the action centers around the most iconic villain in comic history, The Joker, as portrayed by Heath Ledger.

Why Will It Be Big?
Begins started off with a negative vibe after posting a poor opening weekend in '05. It quickly erased that bad first impression, though, by going on the most impressive run of the Summer from then on, wrapping up the season with a highly respectable $205. Unlike most superhero flicks, though, BB has continued to have great staying power even after leaving theaters. The DVD sales have been very good and the film has continued to climb the rankings at IMDB, where it currently sits as the 103rd highest-rated film ever. That's why Knight returns with an increased budget, big stars, and an appealingly dark tone that has been made even more ominous due to Heath Ledger's passing.

Why Should I See It?
Before Ledger's death, I thought this was the best trailer of the Summer. Afterwards, and knowing that this is the role that killed him, his sick laugh at the end of reel absolutely sends chills up my spine. It's been many years since I've anticipated a movie this highly, and I think there are many thousands more who are thinking the same way.

July 25th (Week #13)
The X-Files: I Want To Believe

Read About It: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0443701/
Watch The Trailer: http://ie.youtube.com/watch?v=AKFvQ8yt-7E (hand-cammed clip of actual scenes- no official trailer has been release yet)

What The Heck Is It?
The entire production has been very tight lipped, so almost nothing is known about the plot. Rumor has it this sequel to the 1998 film plays more like a 90 minute episode of the TV series, rather than trying to wrap up the series and tie up all the loose ends.

Why Will It Be Big?
Whoa, how has it been 10 years already? Anyways, the original movie was actually a pretty big hit, pulling down $84 in the US and doing even better elsewhere to finish with $189 worldwide. X-Files has always had a fanatical cult following, but will the long wait have fueled fan's excitement, or have people just forgotten about the series by now? This is one of the bigger wildcards of the Summer, it's hard to say how moviegoers are going to react to this one.

Why Should I See It?
http://ngamer.speedrunwiki.com/Nostalgic90s/X-Files.mp3

Also This Week...
Step Brothers

Read About It: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0838283/
Watch The Trailer: http://ie.youtube.com/watch?v=yRLFUc00lc0

What The Heck Is It?
Will Ferrell and John C. Reilly reunite to portray two 40-something men who become sibling rivals after their divorced parents marry each other. Hilarious hijinks ensue.

Why Will It Be Big?
Will Ferrell is a weird fish... he was the Next Big Thing after Elf ($173) and Anchorman ($85) hit it big, but looked like box office poison after Bewitched and The Producers flopped, then appeared to be back on his game after hitting it big with Talladega Nights ($148) and Blades of Glory ($119), but NOW he's back to bomb status after almost no one showed up to see him as Jackie Moon in Semi-Pro ($33). Was that just a minor hiccup, or are audiences finally starting to tire of Ferrell's antics?

Why Should I See It?
Reilly's a great talent, you know what you're getting with Ferrell, and it should be pretty easy to decide if this is a movie for you after watching the trailer. Personally, I like both guys, so maybe it will be easier to enjoy their chemistry now that there won't be all that NASCAR going on in the middle of things.

August 1st (Week #14)
The Mummy III: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor

Read About It: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0859163/
Watch The Trailer: not available yet

What The Heck Is It?
Seven years after The Mummy Returns, Brendan Frasier once against picks up the, uh... torch or something, to do battle with... I don't know, more skeletons?

Why Will It Be Big?
The Mummy was actually a heck of a lot of fun back in 1999, and pulled down a hefty $155 ($416 worldwide) as a result. The Mummy II maybe wasn't quite so great, but it was still decent, and cashed in $202/$433 when all was said and done. In between we also had semi-sequel The Scorpion King, intended as the movie that was going to make The Rock a household name and the next great action star, and that did $91. Pretty decent, right?


Why Should I See It?
Well, it's coming about five years too late, but maybe M3 will still contain some of the same old-fashioned adventure thrills of the first two films, so if you like them there might be some reason to hold out hope.

August 8th (Week #15)
Pineapple Express

Read About It: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0910936/
Watch The Trailer: http://ie.youtube.com/watch?v=AZ07JO-SaBc

What The Heck Is It?
The Apatow Gang is back, with their most ambitious project yet! Many of the people you loved from The 40 Year Old Virgin, Knocked Up, Superbad, and Forgetting Sarah Marshall are back, but instead of a modern-day love story, this time around the action follows a couple of potheads who are trying to avoid being gunned down after witnessing a murder.

Why Will It Be Big?
There's a reason Judd Apatow is the Golden Boy of Hollywood, and that reason is $109, $149, $121. Those are the US grosses for Virgin/Knocked/Super, which is impressive enough, and then you realize that all three were made on tiny budgets without A-list starpower or huge marketing campaigns, and then you're so astounded that your face falls clear off your head. Express is a whole new ballgame for the crew; hopefully they learned something from Simon Pegg's very funny Hot Fuzz last year, as another action/parody/comedy of that quality would be just wonderful.

Why Should I See It?
You didn't enjoy Undeclared, Anchorman, Virgin, Knocked Up, Superbad, Walk Hard, Sarah Marshall, OR Freaks and Geeks? I'm afraid I'm going to have to ask you to get off my internet.

Yes Plum, that means you.

August 15th (Week #16)
Tropic Thunder

Read About It: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0942385/
Watch The Trailer: http://ie.youtube.com/watch?v=4pxOzSpUXtg

What The Heck Is It?
Ben Stiller, Jack Black, and a black Robert Downey Jr. are the lead actors in the next "Saving Private Ryan", but the situation changes when they're thrown into actual warfare. They just don't realize it right away.

Why Will It Be Big?
People are constantly saying how sick they are of Stiller, how he should be in less movies, but the guy's a consistent draw. He helped make Meet the Fockers the most shocking comedy blockbuster of the decade ($280, what?!), and wowed us again just the Christmas before last when he somehow pushed Night at the Museum to $251. My only concern here is, why did it take years and years for another good action/parody/comedy to come down the line in Hot Fuzz, then we're fortunate to have two of them in one year here in 2008, yet somehow they get scheduled into the two weeks right next to each other? I realize August is the time for summer comedies, but come on, give Apatow a little respect and back this thing up to create a little distance from Express, would you? Unfortunately I see this cutting into the business for both films.

Why Should I See It?
I didn't know what to think, but after watching the trailer I'm of the opinion that this could be another big hit for Stiller and crew. Downey looks to steal the show, and rumor has it there's going to be all kinds of big cameos across the board for this one; looks like I'll have to make time to catch both Pineapple and Thunder on opening weekend.

August 22nd (Week #17)
Bankok Dangerous

Read About It: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0814022/
Watch The Trailer: http://ie.youtube.com/watch?v=CUoG9bLFkg8

What The Heck Is It?
Nick Cage stars as the world's deadliest hitman, or something, and blah blah blah, unnecessary remake of asian thriller, etc etc, big sigh.

Why Will It Be Big?
It won't.

Why Should I See It?

[Ngamer]

And now, it's YOUR chance to get in on the action! What do you predict will be the Top Five pictures of this Summer season, in terms of overall North American gross? If you'd like you can make your guess- the Contest will stay open until this Thursday at midnight, when Speed Racer hits the streets and the competition is on for real.

I'll start us off.

*SECRET SUPER SPECIAL NOTE* - these are not my real picks yet (they will be posted Thursday), for now I'm just putting something out there to make for an easy copy-paste!

Ngamer's Top Five
1. Indy 4
2. Prince Caspian
3. Iron Man
4. Speed Racer
5. Hancock

Any edits to your prediction post after midnight Thursday will disqualify you from the Contest, natch.

Good luck!

[Ngamer]

Speaking of making preds, it's time to take a look at the final results from last year's action!  We'll start with

The Top 11 Movies of Summer 2007

11. Live Free or Die Hard - $135
* Ngamer predicted... $73 (54.1% accuracy)

Although I loved the action-packed trailer, the long delay since the last installment had me worried for Die Hard 4.  Fortunately for movie-goers, my concerns weren't justified, and the film's strong mix of humor and action won over audiences throughout the whole last half of the Summer.  The good legs nearly carried DH4 all the way into a Top Ten position; quite the accomplishment during a summer as jam-packed with blockbusters as this one was.

10. Rush Hour 3 - $140
* Ngamer predicted... $82 (58.6% accuracy)

I have no idea how this happened.  All I can recall about Rush Hour 3 was its having a pretty decent opening weekend, and then quickly fading out of view.  How in the world did it get all the way to 140?  I guess the August release date worked in RH3's favor... as the last big-budget movie of the season, there was no competition afterwards to cut out its legs, so it was able to say in theaters longer and tail off more gracefully.

9. Knocked Up - $149
* Ngamer predicted... $69 (46.3% accuracy)

Never has being so wrong felt so right!  Everyone was talking up Knocked as the sleeper comedy hit of the season, but I was worried that the Apatow gang wouldn't be able to repeat their 40 Year Old Virgin magic again in their sophomore outing.  After Superbad and Sarah Marshall, I've learned to stop doubting them now!

8. The Simpsons - $183
* Ngamer predicted... $118 (64.5% accuracy)

I spent a good deal of time last Summer discussing how Simpsons was the wildcard of the season, and it made plenty of sense at the time, but in the end it performed almost right in the middle of the range people expected of it.  Certainly not a bust, but it wasn't the earth-shattering blockbuster some hopeful fans had it pegged for either.  All in all it was a good turnout; factor in how well it pulled in audiences worldwide, though, and that good gets bumped up to great.

7. Ratatouille - $206
* Ngamer predicted... $212 (97.2% accuracy)

Yeah, nailed this one!  As I talked about above, no one has a proven track record for consistency like Pixar, which made predicting this total gross easier than most other films.  After the opening weekend it looked like I had overshot by a decent bit; fortunately Rata had the best word of mouth of the season, and that kept people coming back for many weeks, allowing the movie to easily eclipse the 200 mark.

6. The Bourne Ultimatum - $227
* Ngamer predicted... $145 (63.9% accuracy)

In my preview I mentioned being cautious about Bourne 3, because the series had been somewhat sucker-punched by the new Daniel Craig version of Bond.  Jason Bourne was a newer, hipper secret agent, and so Bond's new attitude would probably dull the effect, I thought.  Whoops!  Quality won out, and the best movie in the Bourne series ended up becoming the highest-grossing as well.  Kudos all around!

5. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix - $292
* Ngamer predicted... $301 (97.0% accuracy)

Yes, hit another right on the head.  Honestly though, the Potter fanbase is so set in stone by this point that all the films are pretty easy to ballpark.  The only disappointment here is that HP5 couldn't quite manage that 300 mark... I was really hoping it could, as I felt this was likewise the best film of the series.

4. The Pirates of the Carribean: At World's End - $309
* Ngamer predicted... $347 (89.0% accuracy)

A rare underperformance...  AWE didn't end up being quite the movie many were hoping for, but I place more of the blame for this one on myself; I should have realized that Americans wouldn't have much theater money left over after having seen Spidey 3 and Shrek the previous two weeks.  I also didn't factor in how most of the Pirates hype had been burned off the Christmas before, when Dead Man's Chest had set all kinds of records for itself.

3. Transformers - $319
* Ngamer predicted... $183 (57.4% accuracy)

The breakout smash of the Summer!  You could make a case for Knocked Up or Bourne, but most would agree that Transformers was the movie that really turned heads in 2007.  It's hard to get on my case for the low prediction though... sure the special effects looked excellent in the trailer, but the movie was such a wildcard that my 180 was actually toward the high end of the range people were giving it, as there was a pretty big crowd who fully expected Transformers to bomb.  Boy, do they look stupid now, eh Goose?

2. Shrek 3 - $323
* Ngamer predicted... $327 (98.8% accuracy)

Scarily accurate, thy name is Ngamer!  Another very good pred here, especially considering how far below Shrek 2's incredible final number I forced myself to ballpark this one.  I went that low because I thought S2 was in the worst position, being squeezed in between Spidey 3 and Pirates 3, and I ended up being right on that score.

1. Spider-Man 3 - $337
* Ngamer predicted... $385 (87.5% accuracy)

Odd that Spidey could take first place for the season and finish on top of so many big time blockbusters, yet still be considered a bit of a disappointment in the end.  That just speaks for the enormous hype that surrounded this movie when it debuted one year ago yesterday... what's hard to say is whether the movie finished below 350 more as a result of the mixed word of mouth, or the huge bite out of business that Shrek and Pirates took in the following weeks.

Overall, I predicted the big movies of 2007 to pull in $2.88 billion at the box office here in the US.  Even though S3/S3/P3 failed to match my lofty guesses, nearly everything else (including Superbad, which just missed the cut) blew my expectations so out of the water that the final gross for the season was $3.46 billion, an overperformance of 120%!
---

Now let's see how everyone else's predictions went.  Here's the final standings for everyone who sent in a Top Five prediction for '07.

Top Five Predictions - Final Standings

* note: the scoring system is |Actual Position - Predicted Position|, summed for all 5 predicted movies.  so you want to score the lowest value possible.

13. Matis - 27 points

Adam rolled the dice twice, first by picking The Fantastic Four 2 to finish third, and second by picking 28 Weeks Later to come out in 5th.  As they actually ended up 12 (ouch) and 20th (big ouch!), that stung pretty bad.

12. Reds - 26 points

Yikes, I guess he wasn't cheating hard enough!  Reds took a major gamble by backing Clooney's boys to do enough to push Ocean's 13 into the #3 spot- when they were pushed all the way back to 16, his luck ran out.

11. Lark - 21 points

Lark was doing so well, but then he pulled a Reds and billed Ocean's 13 for the #4 spot.  Better luck this year, Greg.

10.  PG - 19 points

Paul went conservative aside from the major risk of slotting low budget Stephen King story 1408 for the #4 spot.  Even though the movie did very well for itself, the marketplace was too packed this Summer and it finished 18th, killing his chances.

9. Kirby - 17 points

Some day Kirby will be right about something; I hope it doesn't happen too soon, however, as that would surely be the first sign of the oncoming Apocalypse.  His big mistake on this occasion was putting too much faith in Bruce Willis, with a #4 prediction.

6. Matt H. - 13 points

Matt was doing just fine- picking the Simpsons for 3rd cost him 4 points, but he was still in the running... then he took Die Hard for 5th.  Whoops!

6. DK - 13 points

DK was nearly perfect through the first four picks... then he went ahead and slotted Fantastic Four 2 into the 5 spot.  See you later, Alba-gater!

6. Zerg - 13 points

Zerg did real swell until he started drinking the Kirby kool-aid and backed Die Hard in the 4th position.  So close!

5. Moto - 12 points

Moto backed The Simpsons for 5th place, which was a bit of a zinger but no killing blow.  The camel's back broke, though, when he selected longshot Harry Potter 5 to outdo the Big Three and come in 1st place.  Too bold, fellow, too bold by four!

4. Neo - 11 points

An excellent slate of picks from Neo, except that his love of the Simpsons cost him 4 points, while his hatred of Shrek (picking it all the way down in 5th) added a devastating +3 to his tally.

3. Boss - 9 points

A very conservative estimate from Boss nearly won him the day...  Spidey/Shrek/Pirates/Potter came through in spades, but The Simpsons couldn't quite get over the hump to match the #5 he wanted to see, and that was barely enough to hold him back.

2. hiscore - 7 points

Truly a heck of a performance out of the Scorester.  He was perfect on Spidey, only 1 off on Shrek, only 1 off on Potter... but his downfall, once again, was backing the Simpsons for 5th.  Nothing to be ashamed about here though; you nearly pulled off the upset for the ages!

Which means your 2007 Champion is...

1. Ngamer - 6 points

A Top Five victory is not about calling the unlikely upset, its rather all about limiting your damage.  And no one did that better in 2007 than Ng.  His Spidey 3 pick was perfect, his Shrek guess was only one too low, his Potter was only one too high, his Pirates was off by two.  The winning choice was going with Pixar in the 5 slot- Ratatouille came through for Ngamer in a big way, costing him only 2 points with its 7th place final position, and that ended up being just enough to seal the deal.
---

Good luck to everyone on your 2008 predictions!

[RWG]

I just got back from seeing Ironman and I really liked it. Lots of great character development and that Iron-man is fucking BADASS. The guy is a genius and it's just a cool watch.

I can't wait until next year when we all get to predict the Hannah Montana movie as the #1 box office hit of the summer

[PDplum]

Why Should I See It?
You didn't enjoy Undeclared, Anchorman, Virgin, Knocked Up, Superbad, Walk Hard, Sarah Marshall, OR Freaks and Geeks? I'm afraid I'm going to have to ask you to get off my internet.

Yes Plum, that means you

Fantastic wasn'y expecting to be zinged in that: I was a bit harsh on superbad it was just stereotypical american humour i often don't get. Virgin was funny. The rest i have not seen.
Looking forward to indy 4 (like rocky balboa just to see a sectegenarian try and be young) Brendan Frasier is one of my alltime fav actors so a new mummy film should be cool Does it have rachel weiss in it?

[Wyst3r]

Yeah Iron Man was quite a suprise, i had never heard of him before the movie and expected a poor copy of all other super hero's, I thought the movie would be a ton of superhero crap where there would be alot of focus on the big fancy battles and the hero's double life, but i was really happy to see that instead they put most of the time on showing life BEFORE he becomes "iron man". Also for once i don't have any problems with the double life thing, cause it isn't really a double life, the guy behind the mask IS the guy in the mask. Also the humour was awesome, though i usually find it cheap in these kinds of movies. But well, To sum it up, i love this movie. Prolly way more than the other hero movies.

SEQUEL!!

Now can't wait for Indy 4

[octoinky]

Omg this summer looks *TERRIBLE*  Maybe 3 movies I'll see, tops.  Probably only Black Knight, to be honest.. wow.  I'll get some preds in later

[Soft-Hedwig]

Clearly Sex and the City is going to be the highest grossing.

[Thiradell]

1. The Dark Knight
2. Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull
3. The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian
4. Iron Man
5. WALL*E

[RWG]

Ryan White Goose's 2008 Top 5 Movie Grossing Prediction:



5. The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian

I don't watch fantasy movies like this, nor do I intend on it, but they always seem to do well and I think the first one in this series did well, so I will put this here. What terrible commentary.

4. WALL*E

I'm putting a lot of faith in this prediction and it likely will make or break it for me. I have absolutely no idea what this is about but out two and two together; Disney Pixar... one of the most memorable Super Bowl ads... this has to do well. Almost seems like an E.T. meets Toy Story and we all know how well those did.

3. Iron Man

I saw this last night and had to go to the bar for an hour to kill time since the two shows I would have been early for were already sold out. This doesn't quite have the "WOW!" factor Transformer's had, but it's quite a different story than your generic superhero movie. Robert Downey Jr. and Gweneth Paltrow returning after what seems like along hiatus from blockbusters should help the case. The movie's released already so it has a nice jump on the rest of them too. Go Iron Man!

2. The Dark Knight

As if Heath Ledger's death wasn't a (very unfortunate) huge way to draw attention to what will be his final work, the Batman series is one of the biggest series in comic books, television shows and movies altogether. I don't plan on seeing this movie but there's no doubt in anyone's mind that this will near the top of the summer movie grossing list.

1. Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull

Until about 2002, when every summer seemed to produce 5 huge blockbusters, the original Raiders of the Lost Ark was ranked in the top 20 highest grossing movies of all time. What's special about this was that it was in 1977 dollars. The only other movies before even 1997 that had this kind of success where the Star Wars trilogy, E.T. and Gone With the Wind. I don't see any of those movies being remade or sequelled or a film being added to one of these series this summer and so Indiana Jones is the runaway favourite in my mind for highest grosser of the summer. Harrison Ford doesn't even really look old in this. It should be amazing!




I also highly considered Sex and the City because it really has a massive fan base.  Speed Racer should also do very well but these 5 I believe will be the top five.

[Fal2002]

The only one i want to watch and have been waiting for is Indiana Jones!

[matt8k]

matt8000's Top Five
1. The Dark Knight  
2. Iron Man
3. WALL*E
4. Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull
5. The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian


The Dark Knight
My most anticipated without a doubt. The interest in the circumstances surrounding Heath Ledger combined with the quality of the previous Batman film will get it to the top.

Iron Man
Well on my tv this week it's all been about Iron Man. There's been ads, interviews and trailers to boot. I'm not particularly interested in this one, but if the marketing is the same everwhere else it'll do well. I've read on the internets that it's worth staying to the end of the credits...

WALL*E
Pixar create very clever films, and parents know it (that said - I enjoy their work too).
I'm betting on the pulling power of Pixar (PPP?) to reel in the dollars on this one - it could be considered a risky pick.

The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian
Don't think it will quite reach the heights of the last film, but should do solidly.

Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull
The 'too old' comment has already been made. I won't go there.
STEVEN SPIELBERG and INDY! Enough said.

Sex and the City: The Movie
This joins the list of failed tv to movie franchises. *flop*

Speed Racer
Should do well. Was on my shortlist but didn't quite make the cut.

The Incredible Hulk
I'm curious to what a new actor will bring to the role.
More action than the last take on Hulk can only be a good thing.

Get Smart
This was one of those tv shows I used to come home to as a kid.
After seeing the tv series, I think they've chosen the right actor for the job.

Wanted  
'League of extraordinary gentlemen' anyone?.
The star power of the lead actors promises a decent taking. Won't break records though.

Hancock
Will Smith ensures a reasonable success.

Hellboy II: The Golden Army
Haven't seen the first. Probably won't see the second.

Step Brothers
Will Ferrell seems to be able to pull a decent audience. I'm not a massive fan, but I don't think this one will be a total flop.

The Mummy III: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor
Not having Rachel Weisz in the cast is gonna hurt (she's working on something else according to imdb). Still, if the humour and action is anything like the last two it'll be worth a look.

Tropic Thunder
Another film that won't get to the top, but the star power of Downey, Jack Black & Stiller should deliver a few laughs. I'll be interested to see which (if any) actor steals the show.

[Neo]

Don't know anything about this year's movies, unlike last year, but whatever;

1. Dark Knight
2. WALL*E
3. Indiana Jones
4. Iron Man
5. Chronicles of Narnia

[Ngamer]

Rachel Weisz is out for Mummy III, replaced by Mario Bello. HOWEVER, the evil Chinese Emperor-spirit-ghost-thing will be played by Jet Li, and the evil female sorceress who curses him is going to be Michelle Yeoh from Crouching Tiger. So, there's that.

[MostFrantic]

Excellent writeup Jon.

1. Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull: By Labor Day, this one may well double the rake of No. 2. When the original came out in 1977, it was in the theaters for something like nine months. Everybody saw that one. Everybody will see this one.

2. WALL*E: Yeah, ok. I have no clue about this one but considering it's a premium Pixar, every youngster will be seeing this. Throw in the average adult attendance and boom!, the #2 moneymaker.

3. The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian: Ahem, no clue again. But all the kids that saw WALL*E will see this as well. Just many, many fewer adults.

4. The Mummy III: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor: If Rachel Weisz was in this one, it possibly would challenge IJ4 for the hit of the summer.

5. The Dark Knight: Tricky to call this one. The somber theme coupled with Heath Ledger's passing may keep ticket sales lower than expected. People generally don't want to go see a film during summer to bawl. Then again, the Batman franchise has been quite successful and perhaps Ledger's final performance may bring out the fans.

Honorable mentions:

Sex and the City: C'mon now, who's really going to go see this? Female couples between the ages of 30 & 35?

X-Files: Could be a dark horse. Narrow fan base but Gillian Anderson's smokin' hotness may jack it up by $100 mil or so.

Get Smart: People may be tiring of Carell's schtick and Arkin is an unlikely summer film star. But Anne Hathaway may salvage this one.

Step Brothers: Um, are Ferrell and Reilly going to continue to be in a slew of buddy movies? Ferrell's popularity escapes me. Isn't Reilly considered to be the wealthiest actor that has never starred?

[alexaxxem]

im gonna go see ironman tomorow night... heard its great... the black knight looks awesome plus the two actors in it also played together in the prestige (a great movie!) so im looking forward to that... spider man last year sucked i hated it... i want to see prince caspian just for fun and something to do it will be alright. the mummy III! since when was this coming out! never heard of it... i remember in the 6th grade going to see the mummy... and i liked it... but now im almost a sophomore in college... maybe they waited to long? i dont know but im sure if the same people are in it, it should be good... so now im anctious to see it! speedracer... sorry your gonna suck lol previews looked terrible.... one thing i want though... is another pirates of the carribean... will there be another one?

[Axel A]

Should I be ashamed that Sex and the City is the movie that I'm looking most forward to on that list

[rshepherd1000]

dark knight
indy
caspian
ironman
walle

[DavidK5]

1. Narnia 2
2. Indiana Jones 4
3. Dark Knight
4. Iron Man
5. WALL*E

[Red Bull]

1) Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull
2) WALL*E
3) The Dark Knight
4) The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian
5) The Mummy III: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor

[Matis]

Matis PREDICTIONS!

1. Indiana Jones
2. Batman
3. Narnia
4. Iron Man
5. Wall*E

[alexaxxem]

ok i seen iron man and it was awesome... way more than i ever expected... made spiderman look horrible

[mikerspd]

Iron Man - 280 (That may be way low from what I've heard about its opening weekend, everyone loves Downey Jr. to my surprise)
Indy - 250 (I thought there was supposed to be a sequel to 3 in ... 199*?  Jesus I feel old.)
Narnia: PC - 220 (PC, lol, awesome)
Dark Knight - 205  (I think many will want to see it for Heath Ledger, and some will be hesitant to watch in the theater)
Wall*E - 200 (This looked cutely funny, and seems standard Pixar, below Toy Story, but still good.)

Great job Ngamer, both on the list/analysis, and last year's domination.

[wheatrich]

wheat's movie bets!
Bet On: Will 'Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull' have higher Opening Weekend sales than the first three 'Indiana Jones' movies combined?

YES at -450 (risk 225 to win 50) [62.9 mil apparently--with iron man reeling in 109 or so seems like free dough here]


Bet On: Which movie will have higher Opening Weekend ticket sales?

The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian -300 vs Speed Racer

Narnia! (the reason there's 7 movies in the works is that there are 7 books in the series!) risk 150 to win 50

(other bets they had I didn't take)
Indiana Jones vs Sex in the City opening weekend (Jones -500) [I may or may not end up on jones on this one because I really don't understand exactly how big that City fan base actually is--wish I saw this line sooner as anything -400 or better I would've autofired on it]

Indiana Jones dying at end of movie yes +500 no -900 Although I believe he won't die I hate risking that kind of cash for so little unless I'm literally 100% sure (because of how much of the roll it locks up to make that bet) and I'm not.

[RWG]

You don't know how big the Sex in the City fanbase is because you don't know many women =/

[Soft-Hedwig]

Or many gay men

[NathanStinson]

pwnt

btw, Iron Man was, surprisingly, good.

[RWG]

rofl durk, touche

[Ngamer]

wheat, you can safely bet the farm on all of those top three.  I'm sure you could on the fourth as well, but I agree, it's a silly bet and I'd stay away from it.

Yikes guys, I need you to stop referring to the new Batman movie incorrectly!

The Dark Knight = http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tkT1wdRePco

Black Knight = http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WEo5E7q6HQU

You can see how painful a mistake this is.

Now, let's see some more Top Fives!

[Scrambler Fanny]

top 5 is as follows:

1) indiana jones-330
2) dark knight-280
3) prince caspian-275
4) iron man (ties with)
WALL*E-265
5) incredible hulk (ties with)
the happening (ties with)
the mummy (ties with)
speed racer-210 can i do that, or is that illegal?

[RWG]

THE HAPPENING LOOKS INSANE!! Why didn't Jon put that on the list? I guess The Village was a flop but Signs and the Sixth Sense did pretty damn well. Shamalayan is amazing.

[Quiet Bol]

There are only like 8 movies that needed to be mentioned, and only 7 of them actually were (Kung Fu Panda being the other contender).

Geez fotr, aside from the fact that you only needed to list 5 movies (and your first 5 is actually really strong, though officially no movies will tie, so I doubt you're allowed to predict ties), those movies you have tied for 6th have no chance of being anywhere near 210, aside from Speed Racer, if it maxes out its potential.

1. Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull
2. The Dark Knight
3. Iron Man
4. The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian
5. Wall*E
-
6. Speed Racer
7. Kung Fu Panda
8. Hancock

Hope that's not the same order somebody already used! I didn't check.

[wheatrich]

New bet (one of the previous is no longer up)

Caspian EVEN
vs
Jones -140

Opening Weekend Sales

Probably staying away from this--it's really hard to gauge exactly how popular indiana jones will be now vs a money machine like narnia will end up being.

Top five movie picks (from a guy who last saw in theaters--the last narnia movie...)

1. with the upset Narnia
2. Indiana Jones
3. Speed Racer
4. Iron Man
5. Walle

[Ngamer]

Ties aren't allowed ringer, but that's ok, I'll just score it as Iron Man 4th and WALL*E 5th if you leave it as is.

True QB, Panda has an outside shot of pulling in the family audience enough to sneak into the bottom of the top five, but I tailored my writeups more toward movies guys our age would more likely be interested in, so that got left out.  (In the case of like Sex and the City, I had to at least mention it since as we've been saying, it might do well enough with female audiences to become a moderate hit.)

[RWG]

and gay men!

[Ngamer]

22 hours left to make those preds! Don't delay any longer, Jimbos of the world!

EDIT - Last chance, AHHHHHHHHHHHHH!

[Quiet Bol]

"Any edits to your prediction post after midnight Thursday will disqualify you from the Contest, natch."

Poor Jon!

[Ngamer]

Ngamer's Top Five
1. The Dark Knight
2. Iron Man
3. Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull
4. The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian
5. WALL*E
---

Why?  Whhhhhhhhhhhhhhy?
In terms of box office, The Dark Knight reminds me most clearly of Pirates 2.  The original in the series didn't have huge expectations or a big opening weekend, but people were pleasantly surprised with how good they ended up being, an as a result great word of mouth pushed them to decent returns at the box office.  Then they moved to DVD where they became even more appreciated, so that after a few years people were so excited for part two that the opening weeks were huge.  The difference is, I think Dark Night is going to actually improve on the original in terms of being a quality film, so when you throw in the bigger budget, the better cast, and the curiosity of seeing Heath Ledger in his final role, my expectations are huge.  Plus I think WB did the correct thing in pushing this back out of the crowded May timeframe; with no major blockbusters of the Indy or Iron Man variety afterward to cut out its legs, Batman should go on raking in huge dough all Summer.  Especially if Ledger's Batman is as good as advertised... can you imagine the kind of water cooler buzz that's going to be generated if people start seriously talking Ledger up for a Best Supporting Actor nomination?

Iron Man in 2 is no surprise- I had it slotted here pre-release, and the strong opening weekend was just icing on the 'I like this pred' cake.  If Speed Racer is a bust (certainly a possibility), that will be a whole extra week of bringing in the big money, and in any case the very positive word of mouth ought to help keep it from collapsing, unlike many other superhero films.

Indy back in third is the biggest risk... I know how well-loved the original trilogy is, I know that all the time since '89 has fans really ramped up, but sorry, I don't see Indy fits the mold of the modern Summer blockbuster.  Here in the '00s, if you want a monster summer hit you've got to appeal to the teenage boys with disposable cash.  Think Spidey 1 or 2, or Transformers, or Pirates 2, or Revenge of the Sith.  You can also occasionally get there by becoming the movie that everyone under the age of 12 just HAS to see (think Shrek 2 or Finding Nemo), though that's more rare.  And the way I see it, Indy doesn't fit either of those bills.  Sure, your Mom and Dad know about it and want to see it, probably your grandparents do as well, but if the reviews are lukewarm, I'll bet half of that audience says "oh well, guess we can catch it on DVD sometime instead."

Of course if the reviews are great, and the younger audience gets swept up in the hype as well, there's going to be such a huge audience for this film that it could smash all kinds of records, and leave quite a bit of egg on my face.  But that's ok, you've got to take a little risk to win big!

Narnia in 4th is more or less a safety pick.  Yeah, it looks alright, but I get the sense that the original was one of those movies that everyone saw but nobody loved, and generally those take a pretty healthy dip on the second go-round.  Even though I give it almost 0 chance of matching Wardrobe's success, though, there's a reason so much money is invested in this series, and that's because between the family appeal and the religious context, its flop-proof.  Good enough reason to get my backing.

WALL*E making the cut is me giving a big "thank you" to Pixar for saving me last season with that great run Ratatouille pulled off.  Actually I think WE could have some trouble matching Rata's and Cars overall success (food and car racing seem more universal and relateable to families than outer space and robots), but again, I'm not too concerned because even a "down result" for Pixar would be a convincing victory for anyone else, so I don't see it dropping far down the ranks even under a worst-case scenario.

[dragondragon18]

Wow, what a fine set of preds!

[RWG]

Jon wins.  Just cancel the rest of the contest.

[rshepherd1000]

speed racer takes ~20m in opening weekend. free money

[NathanStinson]

Pretty poor opening by most blockbuster standards!

[RWG]

lol speed racer

[NathanStinson]

lol hannah montana

[octoinky]

Anybody who watches speed racer loses 1 octo point. Looks so retarded I can't believe it.

[RWG]

lol Nate, Hannah Montana movie is going to gross well over 20million opening weekend next summer when it comes out. In fact I wouldn't put it past the film to break the 151million record of Spidey 3.

[Thiradell]

Iron Man 2nd?! I can't...

*Holds tongue due to lack of extensive knowledge*

[RWG]

THE CHRONIC (WHAT) CLES OF NARNIA

[NathanStinson]

I just got back from it

I really enjoyed it! Good, mindless action, with some heart

[Ngamer]

Indy has arrived, and is ready to begin a potentially record-smashing run at the box office!

It has received the third-largest opening in American history in terms of total theaters (behind only Pirates 3 and Potter 5), and performed wonderfully at midnight shows last night. An early report from Fantasy Moguls has a very interesting update:

The generally well-reviewed sequel will perform extraordinarily well in after-midnight shows. As of 8:00 p.m. (Pacific), high-grossing Arclight Theatres in Hollywood has nine sold-out shows, starting at 12:01 a.m., 12:15 a.m., 12:16 a.m., 12:17 a.m., 12:30 a.m., 12:31 a.m., 12:32 a.m., 12:45 a.m. and 12:46 a.m. That is completely unprecedented.

The bottom line is that Steven Spielberg and George Lucas have created a four-quadrant juggernaut. There is a nostalgia factor here with parents looking forward to introducing kids to Harrison Ford's iconic character. The PG-13 rating makes Kingdom of the Crystal Skull very family friendly. And, Shia LeBeouf is a hit with Under 25s, riding the success of both Disturbia and Transformers. I now believe that IJ4 has a real shot at $46 million-$48 million for opening day.

In short, Indy isn't going to have a shot at the opening day record, because it's starting on a Thursday instead of a Friday. It won't have a shot at the opening weekend record, because again its going to burn off plenty of demand with those midnight shows and all day Thursday. The record it's going to be gunning for is to become the biggest grosser ever through its first five days (Thursday, Friday, Saturday, and then Monday, which is a holiday here in the US). Currently that record stands at $173, set two Summers back by Revenge of the Sith. So watch for that mark as the official results start rolling in!