Author Topic: Elite Fantasy Baseball & MLB Betting 2009  (Read 2439 times)

..

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Elite Fantasy Baseball & MLB Betting 2009
« on: March 04, 2009, 09:57:00 pm »
  Summer's almost upon us and that means it's time for Fantasy Baseball!  Durk's favourite annual event will kick off in a few weeks, so Shep   better get his Prospectus book ordered so he can finish a solid 5th!  This year, we'll invite all of last years competitors to re-join, and hopefully   they'll accept!  
 
  Come  
  QB  
  Ngamer  
  Packattack (defending champ)  
  wheatrich  
  PDO  
  Youse  
  Thingy  
  Shep  
  wiff  
 
  In addition to those 10, we'll have open spots reserved for the first 2 of these prospective members to post in this topic:  
 
  Boss  
  drag  
  Third  
 
  We're keeping the CI/MI spots from last year, but expanding the OF position to 5 slots instead of 3, since that was a big point of discussion last year.    Also we're using OBP instead of AVG in one of the hitting categories.  Everything else stays the same!  
 
  Right now the draft is set for Saturday March 14th 12:30PM EST.  I will be on vacation and moving the following   weekend so the weekend of the 14th is the only one that works for me, and most of the Sunday slots were taken on Yahoo already.  If we can all agree on a   weekday before that, I'm down, but if not this will have to do!  
 
  Good luck!  
 

Thiradell

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« Reply #1 on: March 04, 2009, 09:57:00 pm »
I wanna play!
nothin' moves me more than a groove that soothes me
nothin' soothes me more than a groove that boosts me
nothin' boosts me more, or suits me beautifully
there's nothin' you can do to me; stab me, shoot me

RWG

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Elite Fantasy Baseball & MLB Betting 2009
« Reply #2 on: March 04, 2009, 10:17:00 pm »
But I want to play so I can learn about baseball and bet on it
"I want to be defined by the things that I love. Not the things I'm afraid of, or the things that haunt me in the middle of the night.  I just think that, you are what you love."  Taylor Swift, Daylight.

【 Verax Maneret 】

Ngamer

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Elite Fantasy Baseball & MLB Betting 2009
« Reply #3 on: March 05, 2009, 06:06:00 am »
Looking forward to another fun season!

While we're on the subject of baseball, let's use this leadup to Opening Day to discuss the World Baseball Classic!

NgOnHisLaptop (3:21:40 PM): speaking of the WBC, do you have any bets down?
CieloAzor (3:21:59 PM): yeah, Canada at 100-1 and Venezuela at 12-1
NgOnHisLaptop (3:37:31 PM): alright, after looking over the pools I'm going to
NgOnHisLaptop (3:38:10 PM): confirm a wager of $5 to win $30 for Japan repeating as WBC Champs

Here are the pools and schedule for this year.

Pool A (Asian Pool): China, Japan, Taiwan, Korea
Pool B (Misc Pool): South Africa, Cuba, Australia, Mexico
Pool C (North America Pool): Canada, USA, Italy, Venezuela
Pool D (La Isla del Encanto Pool): Netherlands, Domican Republic, Panama, Puerto Rico

Top two out of each group advance to the Elite Eight, like this:


Here's hoping for a Japan/US final!

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RWG

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Elite Fantasy Baseball & MLB Betting 2009
« Reply #4 on: March 05, 2009, 03:42:00 pm »
Yeah QB... Canada beat the Jays, but the Jays then beat USA. I know it doesn't mean a lot but Canada is at a sexy +450 against the US for tomorrow's game on pinnacle
"I want to be defined by the things that I love. Not the things I'm afraid of, or the things that haunt me in the middle of the night.  I just think that, you are what you love."  Taylor Swift, Daylight.

【 Verax Maneret 】

wishiwasfamous

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« Reply #5 on: March 06, 2009, 02:48:00 pm »
Well shoot, I won't be able to make it to the draft, as I'll be flying out of Kansas that morning! Since preranking always fails me, expect to see another gutter team. Not like you guys would expect anything else.

Friday late afternoon, evening maybe?

Thiradell

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Elite Fantasy Baseball & MLB Betting 2009
« Reply #6 on: March 06, 2009, 07:04:00 pm »
That would work fine for me.
nothin' moves me more than a groove that soothes me
nothin' soothes me more than a groove that boosts me
nothin' boosts me more, or suits me beautifully
there's nothin' you can do to me; stab me, shoot me

Ngamer

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Elite Fantasy Baseball & MLB Betting 2009
« Reply #7 on: March 06, 2009, 07:12:00 pm »
Any time Friday or Saturday is good by me, but Sunday is right out.
thengamer. com

..

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Elite Fantasy Baseball & MLB Betting 2009
« Reply #8 on: March 07, 2009, 02:23:00 pm »
Okay, we just need Youse, PDO, and pack to join. I talked to PDO yesterday and he said he'd join today. I sent Youse a PM on Facebook so let's hope he gets on soon enough. I don't know how to get a hold of pack, since he's never on AIM and not on Facebook, so I'll try to get his attention with the board tops.

packattack

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Elite Fantasy Baseball & MLB Betting 2009
« Reply #9 on: March 08, 2009, 07:27:00 pm »
I got an email from sdkess about this so I decided to join.  Initially I was not going to join but I figured it would be more fun sucking than sitting out the whole season.  I've followed absolutely no baseball news since last year so I've got a bit of research to do if I want to have much success against QB and Boss.  See you guys next Saturday.
go pack go

Ngamer

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Elite Fantasy Baseball & MLB Betting 2009
« Reply #10 on: March 09, 2009, 03:49:00 pm »
AWESOME. Now we just need Youse and we'll be all set. This is going to be the most star-studded season of Fantasy ever!
thengamer. com

RWG

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Elite Fantasy Baseball & MLB Betting 2009
« Reply #11 on: March 09, 2009, 03:55:00 pm »
If Youse doesn't show, you can be sure to find the next best thing with Goose!
"I want to be defined by the things that I love. Not the things I'm afraid of, or the things that haunt me in the middle of the night.  I just think that, you are what you love."  Taylor Swift, Daylight.

【 Verax Maneret 】

dragondragon18

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Elite Fantasy Baseball & MLB Betting 2009
« Reply #12 on: March 10, 2009, 02:43:00 pm »
I'm drafting Barry Bonds.
D Warrior

Ngamer

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Elite Fantasy Baseball & MLB Betting 2009
« Reply #13 on: March 10, 2009, 07:15:00 pm »
Youse has joined; we're all set for the most intense season of Fantasy EVER.
thengamer. com

RWG

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Elite Fantasy Baseball & MLB Betting 2009
« Reply #14 on: March 10, 2009, 07:18:00 pm »
Aww, oh well. I'm sure Youse will provide me with a daily interpretation and analysis of the likely results for all the MLB games throughout the season. Good luck to everyone participating this year!
"I want to be defined by the things that I love. Not the things I'm afraid of, or the things that haunt me in the middle of the night.  I just think that, you are what you love."  Taylor Swift, Daylight.

【 Verax Maneret 】

Ngamer

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Elite Fantasy Baseball & MLB Betting 2009
« Reply #15 on: March 13, 2009, 09:41:00 pm »
14 Hours to Draft time!

Be sure to get those pre-ranks in if you need them!

*goes to do his*

thengamer. com

rshepherd1000

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Elite Fantasy Baseball & MLB Betting 2009
« Reply #16 on: March 14, 2009, 11:51:00 am »
Autodrafting Thanks aol

wheatrich

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« Reply #17 on: March 14, 2009, 02:57:00 pm »
I'm not grading this but I probably would give your autodraft a better grade than my piece of crap draft.

Ngamer

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« Reply #18 on: March 14, 2009, 02:58:00 pm »
And now the moment Red Bull has been waiting for... the 2009 Draft Results!

World Champs = Youse
very very fine team = wiff
Daytona = QB
IsThereAGreatTeam = Thingy
Handguns = Third
Kingers = PDO


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     
Round 1
1.Hanley       RamírezBoss
2.Albert       PujolsWorld Phucki...
3.José       Reyesvery very fi...
4.David       WrightDaytona Side...
5.Grady       Sizemorepackattack
6.Miguel       CabreraIsThereAGrea...
7.Ryan       HowardNg's SuperCrew
8.Ryan       BraunCome
9.Josh       HamiltonShep's Ridic...
10.Mark       TeixeiraHandguns
11.Evan       LongoriaKingers Kings
12.Chase       UtleyThe Wheatfield
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       
Round 2
1.Jimmy       RollinsThe Wheatfield
2.Johan       SantanaKingers Kings
3.Tim       LincecumHandguns
4.Ian       KinslerShep's Ridic...
5.Lance       BerkmanCome
6.Carlos       BeltránNg's SuperCrew
7.B.J.       UptonIsThereAGrea...
8.Prince       Fielderpackattack
9.Carlos       QuentinDaytona Side...
10.Álex       Rodríguezvery very fi...
11.Alfonso       SorianoWorld Phucki...
12.Manny       RamírezBoss
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       
Round 3
1.Matt       HollidayBoss
2.Dustin       PedroiaWorld Phucki...
3.Brandon       Phillipsvery very fi...
4.Justin       MorneauDaytona Side...
5.Jason       Baypackattack
6.Carlos       LeeIsThereAGrea...
7.Kevin       YoukilisNg's SuperCrew
8.Nick       MarkakisCome
9.CC       SabathiaShep's Ridic...
10.Vladimir       GuerreroHandguns
11.Aramis       RamírezKingers Kings
12.Ichiro       SuzukiThe Wheatfield
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       
Round 4
1.Carl       CrawfordThe Wheatfield
2.Cole       HamelsKingers Kings
3.Matt       KempHandguns
4.David       OrtizShep's Ridic...
5.Russell       MartinCome
6.Brian       RobertsNg's SuperCrew
7.Curtis       GrandersonIsThereAGrea...
8.Adrián       Gonzálezpackattack
9.Nate       McLouthDaytona Side...
10.Jonathan       Papelbonvery very fi...
11.Álex       RíosWorld Phucki...
12.Adam       DunnBoss
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       
Round 5
1.Chipper       JonesBoss
2.Brian       McCannWorld Phucki...
3.Jake       Peavyvery very fi...
4.Rafael       FurcalDaytona Side...
5.Alexei       Ramírezpackattack
6.Brandon       WebbIsThereAGrea...
7.Roy       HalladayNg's SuperCrew
8.Jacoby       EllsburyCome
9.Shane       VictorinoShep's Ridic...
10.Joe       MauerHandguns
11.Garrett       AtkinsKingers Kings
12.Magglio       OrdóñezThe Wheatfield
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       
Round 6
1.Chris       DavisThe Wheatfield
2.Dan       UgglaKingers Kings
3.Troy       TulowitzkiHandguns
4.Geovany       SotoShep's Ridic...
5.Jay       BruceCome
6.Bobby       AbreuNg's SuperCrew
7.Corey       HartIsThereAGrea...
8.Dan       Harenpackattack
9.Josh       BeckettDaytona Side...
10.Hunter       Pencevery very fi...
11.Víctor       MartínezWorld Phucki...
12.Joe       NathanBoss
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       
Round 7
1.Ryan       LudwickBoss
2.Stephen       DrewWorld Phucki...
3.Mariano       Riveravery very fi...
4.Carlos       PeñaDaytona Side...
5.Aubrey       Huffpackattack
6.Ryan       ZimmermanIsThereAGrea...
7.Ryan       DoumitNg's SuperCrew
8.Brad       LidgeCome
9.Francisco       LirianoShep's Ridic...
10.Jermaine       DyeHandguns
11.Derek       JeterKingers Kings
12.Chad       BillingsleyThe Wheatfield
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       
Round 8
1.Félix       HernándezThe Wheatfield
2.Vernon       WellsKingers Kings
3.Joakim       SoriaHandguns
4.Francisco       RodríguezShep's Ridic...
5.Michael       YoungCome
6.Cliff       LeeNg's SuperCrew
7.Chone       FigginsIsThereAGrea...
8.Jhonny       Peraltapackattack
9.Rich       HardenDaytona Side...
10.Derrek       Leevery very fi...
11.John       LackeyWorld Phucki...
12.Chris       IannettaBoss
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       
Round 9
1.James       ShieldsBoss
2.J.J.       HardyWorld Phucki...
3.Ervin       Santanavery very fi...
4.Yovani       GallardoDaytona Side...
5.Howie       Kendrickpackattack
6.Robinson       CanóIsThereAGrea...
7.Miguel       TejadaNg's SuperCrew
8.Joba       ChamberlainCome
9.Roy       OswaltShep's Ridic...
10.Joey       VottoHandguns
11.Johnny       DamonKingers Kings
12.Carlos       DelgadoThe Wheatfield
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       
Round 10
1.Matt       WietersThe Wheatfield
2.Scott       KazmirKingers Kings
3.A.J.       BurnettHandguns
4.Lastings       MilledgeShep's Ridic...
5.Edinson       VólquezCome
6.José       ValverdeNg's SuperCrew
7.Jon       LesterIsThereAGrea...
8.Daisuke       Matsuzakapackattack
9.Javier       VázquezDaytona Side...
10.Edwin       Encarnaciónvery very fi...
11.Bobby       JenksWorld Phucki...
12.Jonathan       BroxtonBoss
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       
Round 11
1.Ryan       DempsterBoss
2.Torii       HunterWorld Phucki...
3.Chris       Youngvery very fi...
4.Nelson       CruzDaytona Side...
5.Ricky       Nolascopackattack
6.Carlos       ZambranoIsThereAGrea...
7.Raúl       IbañezNg's SuperCrew
8.Mike       AvilesCome
9.Carlos       MármolShep's Ridic...
10.Adrián       BéltreHandguns
11.B.J.       RyanKingers Kings
12.David       PriceThe Wheatfield
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       
Round 12
1.Andre       EthierThe Wheatfield
2.Kerry       WoodKingers Kings
3.Jayson       WerthHandguns
4.Matt       CainShep's Ridic...
5.Alex       GordonCome
6.Conor       JacksonNg's SuperCrew
7.Justin       UptonIsThereAGrea...
8.Brad       Hawpepackattack
9.Francisco       CorderoDaytona Side...
10.Justin       Verlandervery very fi...
11.Brian       FuentesWorld Phucki...
12.Rickie       WeeksBoss
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       
Round 13
1.Zack       GreinkeBoss
2.Derek       LoweWorld Phucki...
3.Adam       Wainwrightvery very fi...
4.Matt       CappsDaytona Side...
5.Brian       Wilsonpackattack
6.James       LoneyIsThereAGrea...
7.Mark       DeRosaNg's SuperCrew
8.Jorge       CantúCome
9.Kelly       JohnsonShep's Ridic...
10.José       LópezHandguns
11.Milton       BradleyKingers Kings
12.Ben       SheetsThe Wheatfield
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       
Round 14
1.Pat       BurrellThe Wheatfield
2.Nick       SwisherKingers Kings
3.Brandon       MorrowHandguns
4.Chris       YoungShep's Ridic...
5.Chris       CarpenterCome
6.Brett       MyersNg's SuperCrew
7.Ted       LillyIsThereAGrea...
8.Scott       Bakerpackattack
9.Jorge       PosadaDaytona Side...
10.Bengie       Molinavery very fi...
11.Mark       ReynoldsWorld Phucki...
12.Elijah       DukesBoss
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         
Round 15
1.Max       ScherzerBoss
2.Erik       BedardWorld Phucki...
3.Aaron       Harangvery very fi...
4.Josh       JohnsonDaytona Side...
5.Xavier       Nadypackattack
6.Matt       GarzaIsThereAGrea...
7.Trevor       HoffmanNg's SuperCrew
8.Kazuo       MatsuiCome
9.Carlos       GuillénShep's Ridic...
10.Rick       AnkielHandguns
11.Luke       ScottKingers Kings
12.
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Ngamer

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« Reply #19 on: March 16, 2009, 04:59:00 am »
After I finished up on my pre-rankings last night I sketched out some quick notes as a way to keep in mind some guys I wanted to highlight or... anti-highlight. Let's look back and see how they played out!
---


Ones to "reach" for

* people who can steal bases - I always finish last in this category; need to make it a point of emphasis in '09
RESULT: success! this caused me to pick Roberts over Uggla and boosted Beltran and Abreu, both of whom I'm very happy to have. Taveras is admittedly a big ball of eww, but jeez, how could I turn down a guy with a legit chance at 70 SBs in Round 17?

* Ryan Howard - gains a good bit of value now that his walks help him and Ks don't hurt him (as much). plus he deserves it after his great service to the Crew last season!
RESULT: got him! seemed like he was going 8/9 in average leagues, so getting him 7th where OBP counts is pretty solid I'd say. now I DO think Braun is going to have a great season, but between the two Ryans I guess SuperCrew loyalty won out over Brew Crew loyalty here

* Jimmy Rollins - shockingly weak crop at SS makes him priceless; check out the tremendous drop in quality after the Hanley/Reyes/Rollins trilogy
RESULT: well I was right about that huge gap. but yeah, 7th would have been too large a reach and of course he wasn't going to fall back to me. good work by wheat, who I think found excellent value for him at 13th

* Kevin Youkilis - .390 and 115 RBI is looking mighty good right now for someone who can double as 3B... when the #2 at a position is a guy who only played half his rookie season and the 6th or 7th best option is 50 years old and a Brave, you know there's trouble
RESULT: reeeeach to take him 31st, and yet I'm still glad I did it. seriously, when your best non-Wright options are shaky at best AND they were both snatched up about 10 picks too soon you've got to take drastic measures to shore up that position

* Adam Dunn - like Howard (and Fielder), value should be way way up now that walks help more and Ks don't do as much damage
RESULT: knew I'd have a hard time landing him, but expected it to be Come pulling him down, not Boss. OBP is huge for the guy, but still, 4th round? sorry Bryan but I wasn't going to climb that far for this slugger

* Russell Martin - 3B is dire and C is almost as bad now that Mauer's back is acting up. plus I'd really, really like to avoid drafting Geovany Soto
I was extremely relieved when Shep bailed me out only 2 picks away from having to take the Brewer-killing Soto, but wasn't in such a good position since Martin and Mauer were also off the board. that forced me to pull the trigger on Doumit a little earlier than I would have liked, but ah well, he's got good numbers and I really wanted to get that position out of the way

* Mariano Rivera - Yanks figure to be winning a ton of close games with that re-tooled starting five, plus, 0.67 WHIP through the whole season? good gracious!
RESULT: True I had him highlighted, but the third pick in Round 7 would have been a stretch even for me. I guess you've got to throw all sense out the window though after someone takes Paplebon in round FOUR, and- wait a minute that was auto-picking wiff as well! Boy he sure put an emphasis on saves into those pre-ranks I guess.

* Dice-K - doesn't deserve it, but wheat expects this and I could never disappoint him
RESULT: Eh I was starting to eye him, but wanted to get Cliff Lee back on my squad first and after that I needed to secure a closer. Could have nabbed him had he lasted another 11 picks I guess.

* Yovani Gallardo - poised to have a great season IMO, but I get the feeling QB or wheat will snatch him up before he falls to me
RESULT: yup, grabbed early by QB just as I expected. like Dice-K I had interest but wouldn't have made a move for another couple rounds


Wait for it, Wait for it...

* Chase Utely - a stud, it's true, but 2B is surprisingly deep this season. let Youse reach for him; something down in the Uggla range figures to be a better value
RESULT: oh my! never expected him to be a first round pick, and would only have thought Youse would go for him early in R2; wheat stressing his middle infield so early was certainly one of the bigger surprises of the early part of the draft (along with PDO taking a pitcher 14th, what the duce?) it also caused a trickle down effect with Shep being forced to pull the trigger early on Kinsler, which had me quite worried, but happily I was able to stick to my plan and still had the choice of Uggla and Roberts about where I'd wanted to take one of them

* Top Tier SPs - as much as I'd love to land Sabathia/Webb/Peavey, the price will likely be too heavy to pay considering the decent depth there this year. should focus on the batter's box up front and look to round out the mound later on with choices from that 2nd/3rd tier (Oswalt, Lee, Beckett, Harden, Burnett)
RESULT: was sure there was going to be a hilarious run at SP after that wacky PDO pick, but everyone else kept their head and the next was Shep grabbing CC at a very reasonable 33rd. my only regret here was how I came SO close to lucking out big time and landing one of those big fish in Webb, dang it Thingy! but that's okay, Halladay is pretty close to that A-list tier in my mind, and then being able to take home a 22 game winner in R8 just as I had sketched out was a nice little bonus

* A-Rod - what a risky proposition... out to start the year, likely to get wanged in the head with a beer bottle at some game outside of NYC. and yet, there's so little at 3B that he's hard to resist
RESULT: all the talent in the world of course, but taking a guy with this much adversity plus a lingering injury with the 22nd pick was just insane. I had to pull out my Youkillis card a little earlier than expected as a result of wiff's wacky auto picks, but that's okay, important thing was I secured the position just as I'd planned to

* F-Rod - surely someone will bite early on the guy who set the single season saves record despite being the 4th or 5th best closer that season. on the other hand, the Mets do figure to win a load of games up until the final three weeks of the season...
RESULT: very impressed with the Elite on this one; Papelbon/Rivera/Lidge all went earlier, just as I'd have done myself, and as a result I nearly had to go against my own advice and take F-Rod myself there in R8. luckily Shep saved me from my lack of willpower by a mere 2 picks

* Manny being Manny - nice effort he displayed in the final two months, but how much of that was him wanting to get paid versus wanting to help his team? and now that payday has arrived, and considering he was forced to sign essentially the same contract he'd called "insulting" six weeks earlier, is there any chance we see that effort again in '09?
RESULT: I'd have called a 2nd round draft of Manny a major mistake, but ehhh, the 24th pick isn't such a bad position for him to land and I can see why Boss wanted to make a splash after having to sit on his hands for 22 straight picks. still though, that's a bit of a bigger risk than I'd have been willing to take with such a headcase

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« Reply #20 on: March 16, 2009, 06:12:00 am »
Great post, Jon!

My only regret from the draft was not landing Uggla or Weeks at 2B. I had both down as being very strong value picks in our format, but my draft position never gave me a chance at landing Uggla in a spot that made sense, and then Weeks went waaaay earlier than I had anticipated based on Yahoo's O-rank and ADP. On the other side of the coin, I think guys like Alexei Ramirez and Howie Kendrick are really hurt by the switch to OBP as they seem to go out of their way to avoid walking. Between that and what I feel are rather optimistic projections for them, I really had no interest in owning them.

I actually had Adam Dunn ranked as the 9th best OF, 1 AHEAD of Manny Ramirez. I figured I'd let him fall for a while since the his ADP from "normal" leagues have set the bar so low, but the guy has hit 40 home runs on the button for 5 straight years, and 46 the year before that. When you hit 40 bombs, you're gonna do well for yourself in RBIs, and when you walk like it's going out of style, you're going to score runs. The guy is a 4 category stud in OBP leagues.

I had my eye on Abreu as well, not only because he walks a ton, but because he was being underrated on Yahoo to begin with. He's drafted around the 60th pick on Mock Draft Central and the 67th pick on ESPN. On Yahoo, he goes 95th!

Right behind Abreu, I had a little grouping of OFs I liked better than many bigger names that were going much earlier in the draft. Nelson Cruz, Jayson Werth, and Elijah Dukes all seemed like solid 5-category contributors.

I had A-Rod still on the board as the #3 Third Baseman after Wright and Cabrera. I took a pretty crappy projection for A-Rod, lopped off about a month of work, rounded everything down to make him look as bad as possible, and then added a month's worth of stats from a poor replacement player. A-Rod still came out ahead of Aramis Ramirez.

I filled up my starting rotation with guys I was targeting much sooner than I would have thought and with more ease than I could have hoped. Harden would be on the tier with Santana and Lincecum if he were guaranteed 200 innings. He may not last that long, but I'll take what I can get. Beckett's down year was primarily the result of bad luck. Vazquez has had bad luck following him for a while, but a shift to the easier league and a more friendly park should see him become a Cy Young candidate if his luck evens out. This may sound overly optimistic, but I had Beckett, Harden, Vazquez, and Gallardo ranked as the 8th, 9th, 11th, and 14th starting pitchers, respectively.

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« Reply #21 on: March 16, 2009, 06:32:00 am »
I took Utley 4th last year lol. I almost went Utley/Kinsler there actually and still not sure I shouldn't have done that instead. I got stuck in a really ugly spot in the round 3/4 having no idea. Everytime I take a pitcher in the top 5 rounds he's a bust every time. (you can thank me later youse) It was another stupid spot as I knew the good power hitters would be gone by 3/4 picks but yet I would've reached a bit.

I think Dunn will be a reach in the end although I think his OBP will go up from other teams walking him he's on the worst offensive team in the league AND in a pitcher's ballpark. I'm guessing a reduction of 20% across the board in HR/RBI/R (varies depending where they hit him in the order obv) I made more reaches on Davis and Wieters fully knowing if I didn't they wouldn't come back and I didn't like the other prospective options at those positions I would've been stuck with. That said I think it was way better than my Crawford pick of that round but I got d/c and completely froze there as a result.

There were several times I had two guys in the queue with four picks left and they were gone at my pick. I think I drafted really bad+had a really bad draft spot=ugly draft. 7 and 8 were just terrible I wanted Liriano/Dye and ended up in another brutally ugly spot. Sheets was an accident obviously.

I had a 12 team draft with the 7th pick with friends but only a few knowledgeable guys and got this team instead
Reyes, Kinsler, Fielder, Bay which considering that league had no pitchers available to draft (it's on MLB and that's a team draft lol) is pretty ridiculous.

QB probably had the best draft--any pick that wasn't at least solid he was complaining about it himself during the draft. You'll have to give him some smelling salt because reading that line probably made him faint.

Wieters and Davis are on both teams and I figure they'll be on all of any fantasy teams I end up doing lol.

when come was taking guys like Maybin early that I wanted it kind of forced my hand into doing the same thing. I probably over reached a bit there too especially with the last pick I almost took corpas instead and motte probably won't be up till june although he's a RP so he should be up quickly anyway.

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« Reply #22 on: March 16, 2009, 05:37:00 pm »
I absolutely hate drafting for and having a category for OBP. I think fantasy baseball is much more fun finding guys who actually hit well, not just bat .220 and get on base a lot via the walk.
go pack go

youseinthehouse

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« Reply #23 on: March 16, 2009, 11:27:00 pm »
I'm not a fan of OBP either. As with CGs for pitchers, it places emphasis on what is sometimes a managerial decision. If we're going to go for an unorthodox hitting stat, why not OPS? That's at least a little more indicative of the quality of the hitter. We already have SBs as a stat for the people who should be on base most often.

Anyway, let's hope I can convert a D+ at-best [mostly]Autodraft (especially the late rounds after I left-- WTF was Yahoo! doing giving me approx. nine catchers after already snagging McCann and Martinez??) into a third place again. I imagine that like last year, I'll really regret missing the draft. This year I'm especially upset because I prefer strong pitching-- something I'm definitely lacking.

I would have selected Chase Utley with my pick had I been below pick 2 but above Wheat =P.

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« Reply #24 on: March 16, 2009, 11:58:00 pm »
I guess I'll go ahead and defend OBP. I don't much care whether we use AVG or OBP, but OBP is by far the better measure of a player's talent. Guys that hit for a high average but never walk aren't helping their real ball clubs, so why should we all fawn over them in fantasy?

OPS (OBP + SLG, for those who don't know) is a great statistic for determining the best ballplayers in real life, but I don't understand the benefit of adding SLG to our OBP in fantasy. SLG would have a fair bit of correlation with the HR stat, so I think going with straight OBP as the last category is clearly best. If you want, we can consider adding categories for doubles and/or triples next year, but we'd probably have to add some pitching categories to even it out.

I know Boss and Jon were very happy with the change back to OBP, but I think Come was planning to go back to AVG next year anyway. A little variety isn't bad.

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« Reply #25 on: March 17, 2009, 12:26:00 am »
I agree with you QB. I just personally don't like drafting for OBP because I always screw up drafting players that suck at walking. For whatever reason, I never adjust well from doing avg drafts to doing OBP drafts. This should definitely be a competitive league this year with QB and Boss probably being the two who will fight for the championship. I'm going to have to hit the waiver wire early and often do have any chance at keeping up. Like Youse, I hope to stay competitive via smart waiver wire pick ups throughout the year.
go pack go

Ngamer

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« Reply #26 on: March 17, 2009, 01:25:00 am »
My take is that in real baseball, a hard-fought at bat ending in a walk or hit by pitch is just as useful as one that ends in a soft single, so I prefer them to be rewarded the same. Aside from SBs all the other categories reward slugging, so I'd be against turning avg/obp into another slugger-rewarding cat for the reasons QB touched on. As for it being a managerial decision, I don't know... sure that comes into play somewhat, but I think overall BBs have alot more to do with a player's ability to have a good eye and lay off or foul off pitches that he doesn't like. Which again I like rewarding in Fantasy, since it's certainly super useful on the actual diamond.
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wishiwasfamous

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« Reply #27 on: March 17, 2009, 01:57:00 am »
AVG ftw

youseinthehouse

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« Reply #28 on: March 17, 2009, 08:35:00 pm »
You gents make an argument for using OBP because a higher OBP means the player is helping his team more, and therefore should help his fantasy team more. However, you then say that OPS is one of the best measures of measuring a player's worth, yet do NOT want it to be reflected in fantasy. I don't quite follow.

And I get it about not wanting to overvalue HRs. What I'm asking is, how can you overvalue HRs, the ultimate in team aid? You guys are discussing how walks help out the player's ballclub. Here is an (approximate) ordering of plate appearance results in terms of helping out the player's ballclub: HRs > 3B > 2B > 1B > BB. Imagine if there were a single stat that encompassed this exact hierarchy. That would be wild! Oh wait...

Edit: I don't mean to sound too complainy-- just fleshing out the argument here. I'm fine with it the way it is. Like you said, varying it up is healthy for a fantasy league to keep everyone content. I'm just saying, I am like pack in that I have devoted absolutely none of my life worrying about OBP and am more or less in the dark about it. I'm predicting a reaming for me in that category this year, despite Albert the Great on my team.

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« Reply #29 on: March 17, 2009, 09:33:00 pm »
Actually the point was that OPS is so all-encompassing that it's already being accounted for by the categories we're using. It would almost be like devoting 1.5 categories to HRs and 0.5 categories to OBP, which just waters down the importance of OBP and makes the SLG count double. I figure if you wanted to, you could make a league where OPS would be the only hitting category. It would do an admirable job of representing the players' true value, but I don't know how interesting it would be.

In summary, the change from AVG to OBP does a good thing by keeping everything that's good about AVG and then rewarding walks, which are important and otherwise unaccounted for. The change from OBP to OPS would just add redundancy to the power categories (HRs/RBIs), while drowning out OBP.

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« Reply #30 on: March 17, 2009, 10:57:00 pm »
Point taken, but still fairly inaccurate in my mind in terms of the weighting you mentioned (1.5x/0.5x): Plenty of players exist who a) don't hit for power b) don't hit in an RBI sweet spot within their lineup and c) DO hit for a lot of extra bases.

Quiet Bol

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« Reply #31 on: March 20, 2009, 07:03:00 pm »
I just finished betting the season-long props. Unfortunately, it wasn't quite the feeding frenzy it was last year, but hopefully I'll do okay. Note that there's no minimum amount of games a player must play anymore. So hopefully all of these people get hurt!

Kerry Wood under 31.5 saves - $110 to win $100

Cole Hamels under 14.5 wins - $135 to win $100
Roy Halladay under 16.5 wins - $135 to win $100
Joba Chamberlain under 13.5 wins - $125 to win $100
Justin Duscherer under 10.5 wins - $125 to win $100
Ervin Santana under 14.5 wins - $130 to win $100

Willy Tavares under 49.5 stolen bases - $125 to win $100

Kevin Youkilis under 102.5 RBIs - $125 to win $100
Evan Longoria under 107.5 RBIs - $130 to win $100
Justin Morneau under 119.5 RBIs - $65 to win $50

Garrett Atkins over 20.5 HRs - $115 to win $100

Javier Vazquez to win NL Cy Young - $10 to win $250
Jack Cust to hit the most HRs this season - $5 to win $500
(Field) to hit the most HRs this season - $10 to win $100 (I won't repost the whole list I'm against but it looks like a stronger group than last year when I got this same bet at 16/1. Boo.)

wheatrich

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« Reply #32 on: March 20, 2009, 11:06:00 pm »
... damn they're closed. Initially I liked the overs then realized there's no min games bullshit anymore! Can't wait to get in myself on that under Taveras SB prop and pretty much the under on anyone over 15 wins.

edit--yeah bodog realized how much $ to sharps they were giving up on all these stupid props and don't have many anymore anywhere as a result.  All the free $ ones from the past are essentially gone now.

Yeah that field bet is 11/1 now and I couldn't come up with anyone with a realistic chance not on that list offhand (unlike last year where they missed a few guys)

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« Reply #33 on: March 21, 2009, 02:34:00 am »
division and leagues are up! Unfortunately bodog learned their lesson last season with the rays and even the royals are at 7/1. fuckers.

Red Sox under 94.5
White Sox over 78.5
Baltimore Orioles 150/1 to win WS
Oakland under 82.5
Texas over 74.5
Atlanta under 84.5
Reds under 78.5
SF under 80.5

oh wow the max bets on these are $500... ugh at tying up that kind of $ that long. I probably won't have any $500 plays though as a result I don't trust bodog with that kind of tied up cash (ie more than x thousand at once) lol.

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« Reply #34 on: March 23, 2009, 07:42:00 pm »
this world baseball classic is a disaster. USA was playing like it was spring training. (jeter at SS and rollins at DH instead of the other way around makes NO FUCKING SENSE) also the oswalt thing where he left him in there to please the astros so he got his work in.

Japan v Korea for the FIFTH time in this tournament for the final. Oh and they forgot to put the rules in spanish so half the teams didn't understand the rules. only 5 or 6 USA injured guys nice as well. Ridiculous.

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« Reply #35 on: March 23, 2009, 10:30:00 pm »
As wheat was saying, Japan and Korea are currently going head to head to decide the fate of both the 2009 WBC and more importantly Ngamer's $5 investment!  Let's take a look at how everything went down in the bracket this season.



As you see, Japan and Korea have already played 4 times and the series currently stands at 2-2, with Japan posting two easy victories (14-2 and 6-2) while Korea sneaked out two tight wins (1-0 and 4-1).  HOWEVER, this is the first of the five games that actually matters; because these two teams are a combined 12-0 against all other nations they've yet to meet up in a match where the loser would be eliminated.  No doubt that the best two teams are being represented in the Final this season... should be a good one!

To wheat's point though, I agree.  They ought to change the bracket so that the #2 finisher out of the opening pool is forced to move to the other side of the bracket in order to eliminate so many repeat matchups.  If they did that the final 8 would have been...

#1 Korea vs #2 USA
#1 Cuba vs #2 Netherlands
---
#1 Venezuela vs #2 Japan
#1 Puerto Rico vs #2 Mexico

That way we wouldn't have had to watch those repeat Korea/Japan and USA/Venezuela battles until either the semi-finals or the Finals.

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« Reply #36 on: March 23, 2009, 11:56:00 pm »
Some guy just smashed his helmet on a steal attempt. That's insane. Probably was made in China.

Ngamer

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« Reply #37 on: March 24, 2009, 12:49:00 am »
Final Ng/QB 2008 NFL Tab

(included failed bet on the Steelers to match the spread in the Superbowl)

YTD: -$16.68
QB Tab YTD: -$26.68 (includes two 360 controllers)


It's currently 3-2 Japan heading into the bottom of the 9th. Can the Japanese throw a scoreless inning to secure the WBC Championship and eliminate Ng's entire tab? Let's find out!

UPDATE - Urrrrrk, Japanese closer strikes out three batters but allows a run in the meantime.  It will take extra innings to decide the fate of this tab!

UPDATE2 - Yessssssssssss!  Ichiro comes through in the clutch with a two out, two RBI single to put Japan up 5-3!  That tab is as good as canceled!

UPDATE3 - It's over, it's all over!  Japan defends the WBC title in an epic 4 hour Asian Showdown, completing their unlikely 6 to 1 run to the title!  Whooo hoo!

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« Reply #38 on: March 24, 2009, 06:45:00 am »
Bud Selig stated that he guessed he was the commissioner of the World Baseball Classic. Considering how badly it was run it's not a surprise. If I was MLB I'd pay half his salary just for him to go away. I know I don't know many MLB commissioners but he's got to rank among the worst and he won't freaking leave. Also I would pay $25 for ESPN to fire Joe Morgan immediately. $50 if you include Steve Phillips. They add so little knowledge to the game and say obvious crap all the time. It's brutal listening to that complete nonsense and it's not easy to watch a baseball game without hearing the sounds. (where's the mute announcer button I've been looking for 2 years now anyway? damnit technology get over here)

I'm glad this abomination's over with. If they ever do this again please someone with intelligence actually plan this (and better yet after and not before the season so we might actually try) I mean even Steve Phillips criticized the no spanish rules part. When steve phillips finds an obvious criticism--you know it's really really bad.

They haven't even grabbed a fair system yet--it was actually preferable to lose the opening round game as the %'s meant you were more likely to advance than if you won then lost from your early round brackets. (well except for the Dominican Republic)

I would just go single elimination and seed it. At least ngamer came up with somewhat of a reasonable solution as 5 times playing each other is just ridiculous.

Ok done with the rant carry on.

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« Reply #39 on: March 24, 2009, 06:22:00 pm »
World baseball classic? Whats that?
go pack go

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« Reply #40 on: March 26, 2009, 08:14:00 am »
lol, Risked $100 to win $100 on Over 19.5 HRs for ANY member of the SF Giants this season. I feel bad for Giants fans that this prop even exists.

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Elite Fantasy Baseball & MLB Betting 2009
« Reply #41 on: March 26, 2009, 12:08:00 pm »
I dunno I thought OBV OVER too then I looked at the team... Everyone had a 16 HR projection or worse over 162 games last season (molina isn't playing all 162 obv) the previous season and they really weren't injured. Obviously there's a few guys who could progress and show some new power but it'd have to be double. You're essentially taking Rowand and maybe Bowker but I don't see anyone else (unless they sign bonds lol) with that kind of pop and SF is such a bad HR park for it's pretty sad (everyone else has very little to no chance)

It's a no play for me so good luck. I saw the line at -105/-115 so everyone's taking the under lol.

My entire bench now starts the season either in triple A [though TB's just shafting Price on that one so they don't have to pay him], the DL, or not even on a team  fantastic

Quiet Bol

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« Reply #42 on: March 26, 2009, 04:36:00 pm »
Ishikawa and Sandoval are projected for 18 and 16. Obviously if any single player were projected for over 19.5, the bet would be a slam dunk, but it's such a low number that I think even a guy like Randy Winn could fluke it, or somebody could just come from out of nowhere. It's not the no-brainer I thought it was when I first spotted it, but I think it's a decent enough bet.

wheatrich

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« Reply #43 on: March 27, 2009, 03:34:00 am »
I think Ishikawa's projection is way too high. He's not even considered an every day option and I don't think he's even got that kind of power right now. A few years ago I would have thought Winn had a solid chance to fluke it but not now way too old imo.

Obv lots of guys come out of nowhere but almost everyone who did the potential was there that you could see. I'm struggling finding (other than Sandoval) that kind of thing in any of the other currently rostered players on that team. (I don't think Bowker's playing every day either)

The line's probably about right considering the fluke potential/other random baseball luck but SF just blows so bad I can't lay $ on it as a result lol. (playing a zillion games in the NL west doesn't help either since SF, LA, SD, and ARI (and Coors isn't the HR park it used to be it's about average now [though the suckage of the rockies might be to blame for that]) are all massive pitcher parks)

Quiet Bol

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« Reply #44 on: March 27, 2009, 08:12:00 am »
Arizona and Colorado have the two best hitter's parks in baseball overall and they're both around top 5 in HRs. More importantly, San Fran is an average ballpark for home runs and everything else. We'll just have to agree to disagree on Ishikawa. I'm not expecting the power he showed in Triple A last year (16 HRs in just 171 ABs), but he looks to be the opening day starter and he's clearly capable of a 20 HR showing.

youseinthehouse

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« Reply #45 on: March 27, 2009, 10:59:00 am »
Rowand gets 20, easy. When I caught a game in SF last year, Randy Winn homered. I say he gets it done, too.

Ngamer

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Elite Fantasy Baseball & MLB Betting 2009
« Reply #46 on: August 28, 2009, 08:53:00 pm »
We're approaching the final month of the season and things are really tightening up around the league.  Here are the current standings:

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     
Rank TeamPointsPts ChangeWaiverMoves
1. Boss105.501265
2. Daytona Sidewinders104.50.5658
3. The Wheatfield78.5-0.51088
4. Ng's SuperCrew76.5-0.5812
5. Handguns71.50.559
6. World Upper Halves66.50473
7. packattack64.5-0.5953
8. IsThereAGreatTeam641315
9. very very fine team5701119
10. Come37-178
11. Shep's Ridic Team35.50.524
12. Kingers Kings19011

Over in the ACTUAL world of baseball, the races aren't quite so compelling right now.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 
American League
EASTWLPCTGBHOMEROADRSRADIFFSTRKL10
NY Yankees7948.622-42-2037-28716608+108Lost 15-5
Boston7354.575642-2131-33675578+97Lost 17-3
Tampa Bay6957.5489.542-2127-36655572+83Lost 17-3
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           
CENTRALWLPCTGBHOMEROADRSRADIFFSTRKL10
Detroit6759.532-40-2027-39579566+13Lost 15-5
Chicago Sox6464.500436-3028-34594584+10Won 14-6
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           
WESTWLPCTGBHOMEROADRSRADIFFSTRKL10
LA Angels7551.595-37-2538-26713640+73Lost 14-6
Texas7155.563441-2430-31615552+63Won 15-5

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 
National League
EASTWLPCTGBHOMEROADRSRADIFFSTRKL10
Philadelphia7352.584-32-2941-23657550+107Lost 17-3
Florida6760.528736-2931-31598602-4Lost 14-6
Atlanta6760.528735-3032-30578518+60Won 16-4
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           
CENTRALWLPCTGBHOMEROADRSRADIFFSTRKL10
St. Louis7455.574-38-2536-30572507+65Lost 17-3
Chicago Cubs6462.5088.537-2427-38557540+17Won 14-6
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   
WESTWLPCTGBHOMEROADRSRADIFFSTRKL10
LA Dodgers7652.594-40-2536-27616486+130Won 26-4
Colorado7256.563436-2636-30646566+80Lost 27-3
San Francisco6959.539741-2128-38514488+26Lost 15-5

However, the Wild Card is still shaping up to be mighty exciting in both leagues.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 
American League
AMERICANWLPCTGBHOMEROADRSRADIFFSTRKL10
Boston7354.575-42-2131-33675578+97Lost 17-3
Texas7155.5631.541-2430-31615552+63Won 15-5
Tampa Bay6957.5483.542-2127-36655572+83Lost 17-3
Seattle6662.5167.535-2831-34511561-50Lost 15-5
Chicago Sox6464.5009.536-3028-34594584+10Won 14-6
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           
National League
NATIONALWLPCTGBHOMEROADRSRADIFFSTRKL10
Colorado7256.563-36-2636-30646566+80Lost 27-3
San Francisco6959.539341-2128-38514488+26Lost 15-5
Florida6760.5284.536-2931-31598602-4Lost 14-6
Atlanta6760.5284.535-3032-30578518+60Won 16-4
Chicago Cubs6462.508737-2427-38557540+17Won 14-6
Houston6265.4889.535-3027-35528599-71Won 16-4



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Thiradell

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« Reply #47 on: August 28, 2009, 11:30:00 pm »
Pujols walk-off HR! 41st of the year. Saw this live with four other guys in the lounge, pretty sweet.
nothin' moves me more than a groove that soothes me
nothin' soothes me more than a groove that boosts me
nothin' boosts me more, or suits me beautifully
there's nothin' you can do to me; stab me, shoot me

youseinthehouse

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Elite Fantasy Baseball & MLB Betting 2009
« Reply #48 on: August 29, 2009, 12:52:00 am »
So much for my predictions, this is why I don't bet on baseball. Randy Winn has 2 HR and Rowand is stuck at 12! Hopefully for QB's sake Sandoval doesn't go down to some freak injury in the next couple of days.... he's at 19.  (Edit, just checked the box scores... a Sandoval homer!  Congrats, QB)

wheatrich

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« Reply #49 on: August 29, 2009, 02:59:00 am »
I got pretty well owned and need Texas to win the AL west or an Atlanta collapse to keep me from being sick about it (and I just lost a little over 1k in poker tonight ). The other big bets I made are looking god awful (and I'm counting Willy Taveras under SB's as a win).

Remind me next OBP league we do--don't draft Chris Davis and Jimmy Rollins OBP murderers.