The Elite Forum
The Big Three Plus One => General Chat => Topic started by: Ngamer on March 15, 2009, 07:01:00 pm
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Holy smokes, it's bracket time!
Yes sir, the greatest playoffs in all of sport are here again- it's college basketball's Big Dance! But which of the 64 teams will come out on top?
As always, we're running an Elite bracket competition at ESPN.com, and everyone's invited. Just start here:
http://games.espn.go.com/tcmen/frontpage (http://games.espn.go.com/tcmen/frontpage)
After you log in, pick an entry name (like "Ng's Superpicks!") and then click Create/Join a Group. Do a search for
The Final Four Elite
Our pass, as always, is "elite."
Good luck to all, and let the discussion of which teams wheat feels were snubbed start now!
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Past Topics/Results
2008 - http://perfectdarkelite.yuku.com?topic=13536 (http://perfectdarkelite.yuku.com?topic=13536) Champ: Kansas, Elite Champ: Goose
2007 - http://perfectdarkelite.yuku.com/reply/68287 (http://perfectdarkelite.yuku.com/reply/68287) Champ: Florida, Elite Champ: mostfrantic
2006 - http://perfectdarkelite.yuku.com?topic=1777 (http://perfectdarkelite.yuku.com?topic=1777) Champ: Florida, Elite Champ: Woll
2005 - Eaten maybe Champ: North Carolina, Elite Champ: ???
2004 - Eaten maybe Champ: UConn, Elite Champ: ???
2003 - http://perfectdarkelite.yuku.com?topic=10917 (http://perfectdarkelite.yuku.com?topic=10917) Champ: Syracuse, Elite Champ: Tisko
2002 - http://perfectdarkelite.yuku.com?topic=10816 (http://perfectdarkelite.yuku.com?topic=10816) Champ: Maryland, Elite Champ: mikers
2001 - http://perfectdarkelite.yuku.com?topic=9174 (http://perfectdarkelite.yuku.com?topic=9174) Champ: Champ: Duke, Elite Champ: Max Jansen
Who will take home this year's trophy?!
(https://forums.the-elite.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fgeocities.com%2Fcyber1166%2Fpics%2Ftrophy2.txt&hash=e6a8b7b585976b1eb42c0cc5e0087017d7e9dd8a)
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There will also be a facebook pool up shortly, stay tuned.
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Go Kansas Jayhawks!!
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Go teams playing against the Kansas Jayhawks!!
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my team is florida but there not good this year so i was thinking louisville would make it all the way
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Here are the futures I've got so far!
To win the tournament
Memphis 8/1 and 10/1 - Risked $250 to win $2100 (really should have looked around for better odds - 11/1 was available (https://forums.the-elite.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ezboard.com%2Fintl%2Faenglish%2Fimages%2Femoticons%2Ffrown.gif&hash=9bb8520656650a7c2457ae0ae2ee8996e4109fd6))
Gonzaga 30/1 - Risked $150 to win $4500
West Virginia 60/1 - Risked $75 to win $4500
UCLA 55/1 - Risked $25 to win $1375
To win their regions
Gonzaga 6/1 and 13/2 - Risked $225 to win $1362.50
West Virginia 13/1 - Risked $200 to win $2600
UCLA 12/1 - Risked $75 to win $900
*Edited to add some Memphis 10/1 and some Gonzaga 13/2 to win their region. Thanks Thira, now I'll be down a thousand!
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You realize you're gonna be down like $800? I can understand the WVU/UCLA win it all bets, but the rest seem foolish.
That's great QB! I'm happy for you.
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The Elite on Facebook (http://apps.facebook.com/cbssports/groups/group/175062)
gogogo!
NOTE: Requires the CBS Sports application.
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Doesn't matter Tyler. If QB got those bets for better odds than what they are worth (for example, if Memphis wins this tournament more often than every 8 years) then he made a good bet. And making good bets is all that matters. You can lose bets and still have made an excellent bet.
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I only took LSU at 24/1.
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Just added the following:
Will a #1 seed win the tournament?
No +190 - Risked $75 to win $142.50
I have the #1 seeds winning more like 36% of the time, not ~65.5%. That may be a low estimate, but even if Memphis counted as a 5th #1 seed, this would still be a good bet.
and...
How many teams from Mid-Major Conferences will advance past the round of 64?
6 teams at 13/2 - Risked $75 to win $487.50
7 teams at 19/2 - Risked $75 to win $712.50
I have 6 teams winning 27% of the time, and 7 teams winning 22% of the time, meaning both are great value at these odds.
All of these are significant errors by Bodog imo, but unfortunately, they were smart enough to set the maximum bet at $75 for now.
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How much does an American residence cost and is it worth it to have a property there (even if it's a tent and a wireless internet card) so I can play on Bodog?
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Its ironic that I have followed college basketball more this year than I ever have in my life, yet filling out a bracket this year seems much tougher than ever. It feels like there is more parity this year than ever and I can see so many matchups going either way. There is no way that all 4 number one seeds make it to the final four this year.
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Aussie Picks are going all the way this year!
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The reason everyone hates the #1 seeds is that there's no real dominant team. Memphis has the fewest losses and that's the least since something in the 70's.
I have the #1 seeds winning this tournament at around 55-60%. I think mich state and Duke are roughly 0% and that really hurts those overall numbers. (wish uconn out first as the #1's was a little better than 7/4 ... ugh) Every bet QB made went the bad way so I have no plays there at all. I think every bet now is -EV in those props section.
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Kansas defends the title more often than once every 50 years. Definitely a +EV bet though not +EG.
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Eh, 6 first round wins from the Mid-Major conferences is at 11/2 and I still like it. I tried shifting the winning percentages up and down for all the mid-major teams, and while the probability of 5 wins and 7 wins rose and fell accordingly, 6 wins seemed to be the sweet spot no matter what. Kelly is still telling me to bet a ridic amount, so now that the max has doubled, I'm doubling down as well.
Risked another $75 to win $412.50 (altogether - $150 to win $900)
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Warning, warning!
Less than 12 hours remain
before the tip off of the best 4 days in the yearly sports calendar! Be sure to get your bracket into the pool before then!
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Damn you Ngamer, don't keep propogating the Sucram-credit for that 2002 win (I think there was some confusion about the "Dolejsi" name, and he was a bit more famous at the time, while now he's just more infamous). I won that shit! And I will proudly fail this year!
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10 brackets... complete! Got my real picks, favorites picks, kenpom picks, vegas odds picks, top seeds, coinflip picks, and 4 brackets with "unique" final 4s that took me 30 seconds in hopes of $$ (lol @ that)
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Good luck Eliters! Go Zags!
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Well octo, someone wins the money. Why can't it be you?
It should be noted I'm off to an early lead but that's nothing unexpected.
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Elite's Championship Picks (from 34 total brackets)
#1 Louisville - 8
#1 UNC - 8
#1 Pittsburgh - 5
#2 Memphis - 4
#1 UConn - 2
#3 Syracuse - 1
#2 Michigan St. - 1
#3 Kansas - 1
#3 Villanova - 1
#5 Florida St. - 1
#6 UCLA - 1
#4 Gonzaga - 1
Whoa, talk about a good variety!
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Top Ten Most Likely Champs (based on all worldwide ESPN brackets)
#1 UNC - 27.2% of all brackets
#1 Louisville - 18.2%
#1 Pittsburgh - 17.2%
#2 Memphis - 9.8%
#1 UConn - 7.1%
#2 Oklahoma - 4.4%
#2 Duke - 3.5%
#3 Syracuse - 2.3%
#2 Michigan St. - 2.2%
#3 Kansas - 1.1%
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Top Ten Strongest Teams (based on x-stats from all ESPN brackets)
| 1 | UNC | 50.0 |
| 2 | Pitt | 41.8 |
| 3 | Louisville | 40.1 |
| 4 | Memphis | 29.8 |
| 5 | Uconn | 26.1 |
| 6 | Oklahoma | 23.5 |
| 7 | Syracuse | 21.6 |
| 8 | Duke | 21.0 |
| 9 | Villanova | 18.4 |
| 10 | Mich St | 14.1 |
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Goose's entire balance of $4.02 on CentSports.com (if you have never played, it's a free betting site where you start with 10 cents and anything you win can be paid to you; http://www.centsports.com/?opcode=141077) (http://www.centsports.com/?opcode=141077)) is already up. Will Goose ever be able to scratch up $30 to pay off Shep? Let's take a look!
Syracuse vs. Stephen Austin UNDER 131 (-115) $0.52 to win $0.45
Syracuse vs. Stephen Austin +12 Spread (-115) $0.52 to win $0.45
Tennessee vs. Oklahoma State UNDER 157 (-115) $0.51 to win $0.44
PARLAY North Dakota +10 Spread vs. Kansas (-110) AND UNDER 144 (-105) $0.51 to win $1.18
PARLAY Temple (+200 Moneyline) vs Arizona State AND UNDER 124 (-115) $0.23 to win $0.90
Pittsburgh vs. East Tennessee UNDER 148 (-110) $0.51 to win $0.46
Cornell +13 Spread vs. Missouri (-110) $0.52 to win $0.47
Siena +3 Spread vs. Ohio State (-105) $0.70 to win $0.67
Updates through the day in the elite chatroom!
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THROUGH DAY ONE
Of the 5 million brackets that were entered on ESPN, only 25,308 managed to go a perfect 16 for 16 today- aka only 0.5%! No Eliters are left with a perfect, but there are 5 who pulled a 15 for 16 (Ngamer, Ngamer's Dad, Ngamer's Cousin, Swaff, and wheat).
Let's hope tomorrow turns out just as well... and remember to root for that Temple upset!
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I had 3 bets VCU +8, Mich ML and Western Kentucky ML
I had already envisioned the spending of the $ on the last two with 13 minutes left in their respective games and then both teams tried their hardest to lose the game. argh would've had A&M too for a perfect day 1 if I knew they played last year (right now wishing I had made an alternate non Uconn bracket...). VCU just missed a buzzer beater which would've not only ended QB's UCLA bet right there but likely would have put the mid majors over 6 wins.
currently 3 mid majors Gonzaga, WKU, Memphis
Xavier vs Portland State is 4
that leaves fading
Siena, Utah (odds wise = 4/5 or so)
Temple, Utah State (odds wise = 2/3 one will win)
others Cle St, Dayton, N Dakota St (which actually has a bucknell type team...), R Morris, Cornell, SF Austin, Portland St
(ignoring 16's here obv) odds wise=just over 1.
pretty much meaning a VCU buzzer beater would've made 6 very unlikely right now. My personal odds also shift the others a little higher as well.
(I had villanova as the 6th most likely team to win the tournament and american made the stupid move of holding the star out too long with foul trouble--should've thrown him in there when the game got close--I couldn't believe it when nova tied it he didn't there was nothing to wait for at that point)
My bets today*
Ohio State ML The game I saw Siena play they were just so sloppy and dumb (as opposed to WKU which was actually not stupid like every other team in the tournament is they don't jack up wild and crazy shots I was impressed from that regard as now every kid sees 1 v 3 and thinks easy lay up)
Cleveland State ML This is my anti a wacko team bet (see my always bet against Clemson rule) WF is that team for me this season. Arizona over Utah. Well I should've grabbed Utah +3 so I could've snatched the arb here but I picked Zona to win this game and I should take the bet as a small dog as a result (see WKU, Michigan in my personal bracket)
Temple ML I think this one is a little more EV than the ML so we'll go here with this one.
ND State +425 it's ahead of pinnacle's +420 and since I'm giving up juice from pinny banning me I might as well take it.
rant: if they're not going to call traveling then why even bother making it a rule? This season was NBA ish in that regard. Getting annoying yelling (or just it popping in my head) "WALK" on seemingly every play. The ones where the player switches pivot feet constantly is just hilarious. (there's a youtube vid out there this season of a duke player taking 14 steps lol [even under the current system of letting a little bit slide I counted 9])
* because I'm on the sharp lines I don't have every bet available and a lot of these bets I think the point spread and/or ML is a slightly better in terms of EV... if I could bet it so I'm stuck with this stuff.
edit--a futures bet
Cleveland State to make the final four 1000/1. Hey it's the most +EV futures bet I've seen yet but obv absolutely ridiculous if that hit. It's worse than hitting 19 on BJ with the dealer showing an 8 prob.
hmmm risk $250 to win 250,000? ugh.... (obv can't b/c I'm a nit and would have to find somehow a way to arb 100,000 on the other team in an elite eight game lol) [however I'm now the biggest Cle St fan in the entire elite!]
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I know its not my elite bracket in the group, but I'm proud to say that one of my brackets is perfect so far (https://forums.the-elite.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ezboard.com%2Fintl%2Faenglish%2Fimages%2Femoticons%2Fsmile.gif&hash=1adea417e08e9042f9ce1a5426616bf29f2ca20e) One out of the 25000 perfects isn't bad.
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Only certain conferences count as mid-majors under Bodog's terms, so I've currently got 4 wins (Memphis, Gonzaga, Dayton, WKU) and I need 2 or 3 of the following to win (hopefully 2)...
Xavier
Utah
Cleveland State
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Wow, Dayton continues their trend of @#$@ing me over my entire life. How WVU can lose to a team that crappy is beyond me.
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Dayton over WVU also just stabbed me in the heart (lost an Elite 8 team like some of you others). Hopefully nothing horrible happens tonight either!
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Dayton was an obvious upset. I had it in all my brackets except for the elite final four one, because I didn't want to lose to the crowd in case it didn't happen.
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Picking Dayton was actually a really stupid pick if you know anything about college basketball, but congrats on that win.
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Getting annoyed that the most douchey, hated, trolling poster on the elite boards is chirping you about college basketball is also really stupid, but congrats on that ability.
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lol, as badly as I feel this mid-major bet has gone, I essentially have $225 on Cleveland State now at +366, which is better than any price on the market. I could hedge out but I don't have access to any decent odds on Wake so I'd lose $25 every time Wake won. If Shep hadn't just gone to bed, I would be able to hedge out for $25 profit instead, but f$%# it, I'll just let it ride on Cleveland State. One time, dealer!
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In hindsight, any upset can be "obvious". I really don't see how you can call this one obvious, though. WVU was the better team going in, and they just couldn't hit the mark today. Dayton played very solid, and my only regret was picking WVU for the Elite 8 instead of just stopping at S16. Oh well. And thanks for the centsports site; I'll try to have some fun with it.
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It was obvious because Dayton has a cool name. Everyone knows you pick whichever team has the cooler name.
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So, I just realized that, despite filling out a bracket, I forgot to join our group. >_>
I'll post my stuff here later I guess, but I think it's nearly identical to QB's bracket. And fuck WVU.
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argh when the hell was Cle St 366? I would've max bet that (https://forums.the-elite.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ezboard.com%2Fintl%2Faenglish%2Fimages%2Femoticons%2Ffrown.gif&hash=9bb8520656650a7c2457ae0ae2ee8996e4109fd6)
Dayton was over a 4 to 1 dog. Hardly "obvious"
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There's was no Cle St +366...that's what my mid-major bet had turned into going into the final set of games. Thanks Cleveland State!
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UPDATE AFTER DAY TWO
Oh wow, now that's more like it! Really cool Dayton over WVU upset, very nearly seeing the first #1 flop out of the tourney after the 16 seeds have had 100 tries at them, and then a completely epic final set of games! With all that in the bank, the new leaders are
Ngamer's Cousin - 28 pts and 99.9 percentile (only 5200 better brackets)
wheat - 26 pts
And then Swaff, Ng's Dad, and Ng's Sister all at 25. You can see how that nailbiter of a win for Wisconsin boosted the WI brackets in the pool!
Now regarding those last 4 games...
[23:32] NgamerAtWork: man oh man!
[23:32] NgamerAtWork: I've got to disagree QB, that's got to be up there with the best 2.5 hours of March Madness of all time, as I was saying earlier
[23:33] NgamerAtWork: we saw a #9 that 60% of the nation was backing upset... with a buzzer beater... in DOUBLE OT
[23:33] NgamerAtWork: a #5 that 79% of the nation was backing upset... in OVERTIME
[23:34] NgamerAtWork: and a #4 that 93% of the nation was backing upset in a totally unexpected BLOWOUT
[23:34] NgamerAtWork: and the Mich St game was at least close for the first half as a small bonus
[23:34] NgamerAtWork: that puts it in Elite territory IMO!
[23:34] CieloAzor: the 5/12 game was supposed to be close anyway
[23:35] CieloAzor: you can pretty much throw the seeds out there
[23:35] NgamerAtWork: then 79% of people shouldn't have taken the 5!
[23:35] CieloAzor: the Cleveland State upset was great but it didn't come down to the wire
[23:36] NgamerAtWork: I think the C St game was almost better because of that though... they didn't just get lucky from deep to hang around and then have a streaky shooter nail one to sneak out a win
[23:36] NgamerAtWork: as you often see from Cinderella
[23:36] NgamerAtWork: they just flat out outplayed Wake in all aspects
[23:36] CieloAzor: I know I enjoyed the game
EDIT - Oh yes, and as of Sienna's 2OT win over OSU there are now zero perfect brackets left in the country! (Or at least, out of the 5 mil that were sent in to ESPN.) In fact only 35 brackets even managed to go 31-1 through Round One!
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I find that hard to believe. There are 2^32 possible combinations...
*googles*
2^32 = 4 294 967 296
Oh shiiiiiiii
Well ok, forget this. Let's assume the 1 vs 16 and 2 vs 15 are always safe and no one should ever pick one of those upsets. There are now 2^24 possible combinations.
16 777 216
Meh, one year it will happen. A perfect first round (https://forums.the-elite.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ezboard.com%2Fintl%2Faenglish%2Fimages%2Femoticons%2Fsick.gif&hash=147d83ab69333060437ede2e0058676600b3ea8c)
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Well, essentially every coinflip of mine went the wrong way. Part of me was saying "every team I'm rooting for keeps losing" but those are always biased by my bracket. Looking back over my actual FAVORITES bracket, it is doing better than my real bracket.
favorites bracket - 210
octo's bracket - 200
complete coinflip bracket - 170
My best bracket is at 260. Naturally, it has a WVU > Wake elite 8, so might as well throw that one away too.
I guess the two sets of games I didn't watch had all the good endings. I missed this morning, and tonight. Oh well maybe tomorrow I'll catch something fun outside of a replay!
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2-3 for a +.9u gain. Thank you cle state. 5-3 overall for a +4.6u gain so far. I only bet OSU cause of the virtual home game.
Today I'm betting against my bracket
Texas A&M ML look we all know uconn's vulnerable and I admit it that would be a killer to my bracket so either way win win lol
Texas ML and the spread (1u spread, .5 ML) they've got the talent to match up with Duke and Duke is the third out of the ACC teams I don't like very much in their matchup (see Clemson, Wake Forest)
WKU +10.5 I really like this team a lot and think they should cover at the very least. (no ML line for me)
LSU +11 can't bet ML so ugh here as a result. I do fear a rout cause of the unc home game but I think this team is ridic underrated. (any underrated vs overrated in any form is an automatic play from me)
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Apparently on facebook there is only one perfect bracket still with a person who has Mizzou winning it all. Neato!
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CLEVELAND STATE BABY
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Hey Octo, your coinflip bracket after round 1 was 17/32... talk about variance!
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I violated my own don't bet after 2 am rule cause I usually blow $ then. god damnit
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Goose....
> dbinom(15,32,.5)+dbinom(16,32,.5)+dbinom(17,32,.5)
[1] 0.4033851
Odds of observing a 15,16, or 17 in my coinflip bracket were 40%. Pretty bad example of variance, IMO (https://forums.the-elite.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ezboard.com%2Fintl%2Faenglish%2Fimages%2Femoticons%2Fsmile.gif&hash=1adea417e08e9042f9ce1a5426616bf29f2ca20e)
And ugh @ all of today's games basically. So much promise for fun upsets, and... so little success. Oh well!
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lol really? I didn't know you could calculate the odds of getting some variant.
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UPDATE THROUGH DAY THREE
Oh man, for the first half of the day I had to double check to make sure we weren't still in Round One, that's how bad the favorites were steamrolling the lower seeds. With the way Nova and Memphis had failed to impress on Thursday I was sure we'd be seeing compelling matchups now that the competition was stronger, but someone have splashed cold water in their faces as all four of those first games were basically over after 15 minutes.
Like yesterday the final set of games tried to save the day, but they just couldn't QUITE manage it this time! Kudos to Mich and WKU and Texas and Washington for keeping it interesting right down to the final couple minutes, but what a shame that none of them could complete their comeback attempts.
With those results in the books, it's time to give congrats to the seven Elters who went a perfect 8/8 today: octo, wiff, Trent, PDO, QB, my Dad... but the REAL story of the day is how my cousin Max, who was already in the 99.9th percentile heading into the day, ALSO scored a perfect 8/8 and has boosted himself into the 100th percentile- only 836 of the 5 million brackets have outscored him to this point!
My Dad sits 3 pts back, then there's wheat 4 back, and QB, my sister, PDO, and Swaff are 5 back to round out the top of the Elite ranks.
Okay, how let's start hoping for a Sunday of basketball that's more like that Friday. Go go Cleveland St!
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We were one Texas in and out basket away from getting a solid win today but managed to cover the spread. I missed posting Villanova at -2--I should've put a bigger bet on that one actually (https://forums.the-elite.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ezboard.com%2Fintl%2Faenglish%2Fimages%2Femoticons%2Ffrown.gif&hash=9bb8520656650a7c2457ae0ae2ee8996e4109fd6)
So we went about +.4u on a 3-3 day bringing us to a total of 8-6 overall for a +5u gain adding in the LSU futures loss we're at +4u currently at 8-7.
Arizona -150 a mystery unit (more than one) this is pretty simple actually here, with Cle St I can just raise the $ (till max bet ML in a conference final) as a hedge with the Cle St bet of earlier. Actually if Cle St makes it to the elite eight I'm going to need somewhat big bets on the other team's ML placed down by some people. This means that it's impossible for me to not gain something as a result somewhere if I don't fuck this up (or the top seed vs cle state line is absurd the wrong way).
I'm still rooting for Cleveland State because of that mystery bet earlier if they get to the final four it might be enough to get me to actually smile.
Oklahoma State ML +325. I really like this one. Any 1 or 2 seed who didn't beat the 15/16 by more than 10 has never won the NCAA tournament. But moreso than that (which is actually silly) they looked terrible and that should be ok. I like the spread to but the ML was a decently better line.
USC +4 looks solid to me as well
(I don't bet O/U's on bodog because the juice is absurd)
point 2
what the hell is this the-elite picks or the Bearder invitational?
point 3
the women's tournament is mega rofl. The 2 seed Auburn is playing the 7 seed Rutgers ON RUTGERS HOME FLOOR. Why the hell hasn't the women's side figured out with the mens side that home court is unfair especially for a LOWER seed. Could you imagine the uproar from Kansas right now if they had to face lower seed Dayton at Dayton (where a regional is being hosted today)?
point 4
I turned on Marist v Virginia for a few minutes and noticed there were about 25 people in the stands. x2=about 50 total. The ncaa womens tournament=who really fucking cares?
(btw where's the NIT prediction and CBI and that other one (yeah they have a FOURTH men's college basketball postseason tournament now) threads)
My bracket completely hinges on Uconn and not Memphis in the final four so even today's results are useless for me.
point 5
barack obama also went 8/8 in those games and if his crappy bracket beats mine (which if memphis beats uconn in that regional final he's got a shot) that would be immensely disappointing.
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Agreed on point 2.
I see where Jon is coming from. His friends and family want to play along in the pool and it's the only pool around for them I assume, but still. This crosses the line.
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Fun read on fivethirtyeight.com - obama favored swing states (a deep statistical analysis, so read the article if you disagree)
Who cares if Jon's family is in, its not like winning the pool means anything. If you want, just pretend the names aren't there.
Seems like this years winning recipe is picking the top seeds. All our top brackets are like 1-2-3-4 1-2-3-5 1-2-3-4 1-2-3-6 in the sweet 16, and most from then out abandon the lower seeds more.
And another disappointing day of could be fun upsets, but the boring top seed winning.
And, rofl @ Arizona going from shouldn't be in the tournament to joke of a path for a 12 seed into the sweet 16? Unless USC pulls this off today, they're the ONLY true underdog in the sweet 16, talk about boring. I guess time to root for the 4/5 seeds next week...
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1-2-3-6? Interesting.
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Oops, hehe! Must be 1-2-4-6 (https://forums.the-elite.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ezboard.com%2Fintl%2Faenglish%2Fimages%2Femoticons%2Fsmile.gif&hash=1adea417e08e9042f9ce1a5426616bf29f2ca20e)
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UPDATE THROUGH THE SECOND ROUND
Ack, a repeat of that disappointing Day 3! An early set where pretty much nothing was in doubt (though I was happy to see the Badgers put up such a good fight in the first half, that plus the awesome finish against Florida St was enough to redeem their season in my mind) followed by three very good games to round out the day. BUT, again, the underdogs just couldn't pull the trigger when they got their final shots and so we ended up watching all the favorites limp into R3. I'm still upset about the way that Marquette game ended... yes it was his own fault for stepping over the line, but it's still sad to see a team only 5 men deep (and minus their best player) run an absolute track meet the entire second half, come all the way back from 14 down, and yet still have the game taken from them in the last couple minutes. Bah.
Regarding the Bearder Invite comment, I think wheat was more upset at you guys for not picking well enough to push the Bearder picks back into the middle of the pack like they normally are. Or at least, I hope that's what he was getting at, because actually this same group (me, my Dad, two cousins, and my former next door neighbor) have picked together in every ESPN pool from '01 until now. It just hasn't been as noticable because we've never dominated like this before.
Speaking of which...
My cousin Max continues to lead the pack with 54 pts and a 98 percentile nationwide, while 1 back are my Dad and sister. Then it's... uh oh, me! Tied at 52 with wheat and wiff. Go Bearder clan!
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I was just making a joke. Nobody gets my sense of humor (https://forums.the-elite.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ezboard.com%2Fintl%2Faenglish%2Fimages%2Femoticons%2Ffrown.gif&hash=9bb8520656650a7c2457ae0ae2ee8996e4109fd6)
edit--first time ever the top 12 teams all made it to the final 16.
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I second the ugh at the Marquette game.
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Ng/QB 2008 Sports Tab
Due to Japan's WBC win I've boosted from being in the hole to...
YTD: +$13.32
QB Tab YTD: +$3.32 (includes two 360 controllers)
And so
Im Ngamer (12:45:00 AM): now I would like a make a risky $3.32 bet so I can hopefully lose and end my '08 QB tab at an even 0
CieloAzor (12:45:08 AM): oh my
Im Ngamer (12:45:26 AM): sooo, do we have anything in terms of who will win the Championship?
CieloAzor (12:47:09 AM): okay, UNC is the fav at 3-1
CieloAzor (12:47:14 AM): Louisville is 4-1
CieloAzor (12:47:29 AM): Pittsburgh and UConn at 6-1
CieloAzor (12:47:44 AM): Memphis is 13-2
CieloAzor (12:48:03 AM): looks like next is Oklahoma at 15-1
CieloAzor (12:48:11 AM): Duke 16-1
CieloAzor (12:48:15 AM): Gonzaga at 18-1
CieloAzor (12:48:25 AM): Michigan State and Syracuse at 20-1
CieloAzor (12:48:29 AM): Villanova 22-1
CieloAzor (12:48:49 AM): Kansas and Missouri at 30-1
CieloAzor (12:48:59 AM): Purdue at 40-1
CieloAzor (12:49:06 AM): Xavier and Arizona at 50-1
Im Ngamer (12:49:16 AM): golly, can't believe Duke is THAT disrespected
Im Ngamer (12:49:58 AM): my only trouble with Duke is they'd have to beat UNC just to get there, which I'm not sure they can do...
Im Ngamer (12:51:11 AM): but if Duke did pull it off I could cash out at 56 bucks, hmmm
Im Ngamer (12:53:25 AM): alright, I'll
Im Ngamer (12:54:11 AM): confirm a bet of $3.32 to win $53.12 on Duke to win the 2009 National Championship
CieloAzor (12:54:19 AM): noted
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Ahhhhhhhh! Bodog had another huge linesetting fail yesterday, but I missed it. They offered 12-1 on only one #1 seed making the Final Four. This is actually greater than 25% to happen, based on current individual game odds. None of the #2 or #3 seeds have been upset to this point, so there's plenty of talent left for these #1s to wade through.
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I was barely able to get my picks done because I was working at a customer site all of last week. I like to put a lot of thought into my picks, but I basically just made speed picks this time since I was working long hours and had very limited internet access. So far my bracket isn't doing so hot, but it hasn't sustained any truly crippling damage yet either.
I will actually get to watch some of the games over the next few days which will be nice. I did not get to watch a single game last week aside from the tail end of a couple that were on pretty late. That sucked.
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On a side note, I just checked my mess of brackets and surprisingly, I have one good bracket. Its in the 99.7%tile and in 11,000th place at espn.com. I have everything in tact still. I'm sure it will fail miserably soon, but at least I had one good bracket this year. Can anyone say chalk?
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I had a few brackets, but they fall apart late. One had wake forest final 4, another WVU, etc.
My elite bracket still has hopes. I can win our pool with a UNC > Louisville final, and if Villanova makes the final 4 on top of that.
The Memphis loss appears to be irrelevant, as even though they were in my final 4, nobody else above me with UNC > Louisville has UCONN. Additionally, the points from Nova instead of Pitt would be enough for me to pass them.
Clearly this isn't an early celebration as my odds of winning are still small, but rather showing that despite an awful first/second round, it just takes having your fianls right, and SOMETHING different, despite all of this chalk, etc., to win a small pool.
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Damn it QB, you've ruined me!
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picking the champ alone is 630 points to your total score.
analysts go in saying Duke > Nova so duke should win a close game then they get blown out and all of a sudden they overachieved and shouldn't have done a fucking thing all season because in reality they sucked balls and coach K did a fucking awesome job. Duke was favored in that game vs nova and they lost by 21 and coach K did a great job? Astounding.
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UPDATE WITH HALF THE ELITE EIGHT DECIDED
Ewwww, what an awful set of results. The Duke bet instantly blew up in my face, but of course I'd known that would happen going in so no big deal (though I didn't expect them to get run off the floor THAT easily!). Memphis, on the other hand- ack! Awesome to see them fight back from 24 points down, what a shame (for my bracket) that they couldn't finish the job. But honestly I shouldn't be complaining, considering how I was only a few plays away from also losing my other Championship game pick tonight. It's like I was saying in Chat, Pittsburgh = the Steelers of the NCAAs; they're not going to blow you out, they're not going to earn any style points, but they're experts at surviving & advancing and winning ugly. I also shouldn't be complaining too much because, SOMEHOW, I'm still 7th in the Elite pool and still have a chance to win assuming that Pitt keeps advancing and Mizz continues their impressive run (to limit my Memphis damage).
But speaking of being 7th, who are the six supreme bracket experts currently ranked ahead of me? Why that would be:
My sister, alone in first with 65 pts (ugh, we should all be ashamed of ourselves!), wheat sitting 1 point back, and a logjam of Trent, Lark, and two Ngamer cousins sitting 2 back of wheat. Special note of congrats to my cousin Mike, the only one in the pool to correctly predict all 4 results today!
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I agree Wheat. Duke is just pathetic. I'd rather watch big 10 basketball than watch Duke choke their guts out every year. This tournament this year has been great to bet on. A lot of bad lines by the oddsmakers throughout the tournament. Last nights Memphis Missouri 1H O/U was only set at 66 yet they set the Duke/Nova 1H at 69. I unloaded on that Over for the half and the game. I've now gone 12-3 betting on this years NCAA tournament.
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I'm not on a book that lets me bet halves. (https://forums.the-elite.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ezboard.com%2Fintl%2Faenglish%2Fimages%2Femoticons%2Ffrown.gif&hash=9bb8520656650a7c2457ae0ae2ee8996e4109fd6)
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After getting moosed constantly at the end of games, first half lines have been a breath of fresh air for me. I prefer totals more than sides at the moment and it's nice not having to factor in 3 minutes of foul shooting to your over under handicapping, especially during tournament time.
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My good bracket is now in 99.9%tile and ranked 2,316th place.
http://img11.imageshack.us/img11/2808/bracketezp.jpg
Unfortunately, I don't think its going to survive the weekend. Take a look and see.
http://img16.imageshack.us/img16/6022/final42.jpg
I guess If my final 4 were to pan out, I'd be ranked very high, but its extremely unlikely.
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All of my brackets have tanked pretty bad!
UNC pickers:
Wheat has UCONN in the finals, though would still win with anybody but louisville in the final really.
brewcity bracket comes down to pitt (him) and nova (me) with Louisville final,
Esox is eliminated, goose eliminated, R sanders eliminated, stinson eliminated, pack eliminated,
too lazy to look at the rest. it'll be easy after the final 4 is decided (obviously)
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UPDATE WITH THE ELITE EIGHT DECIDED
My oh my... you'd think that with this being the chalk walkin'est bracket in history it would at least mean we'd see a competitive, well-played set of games in the Sweet 16. I mean sure these are all #1s and #2, but at least they'll be challenged considering they have to play the 3s and (expect for Arizona) 4s, right? Instead it seemed like we couldn't BUY a close game the last two nights. To be fair I guess Pitt/Xavier was legitimately fun, the Memphis game was decent because of the big comeback attempt and at least Kansas/Mich St came down to the final minute, but still... 106-64, 77-54, 96-77? The tourney was supposed to get those kind of scores out of its system back in Round One!
On the plus side I'm surprisingly still managing a 7th place status despite another disappointing set of results. Things have shifted a bit above me; the six now leading the pack are:
wheat, this season's most consistent leaderboard presence, who has 76 pts and a gap of 2 over Trent, Lark, sdkess, and my cousin Mike. Jenny falls to 3 points back of wheat and has her dreams of bracket glory killed off due to her faith in Kansas.
A special note of congrats to sdkess, the only Eliter to correctly predict all four of tonight's results (which is actually pretty sad on the part of the rest of us)!
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LOL. I'm doing as well as I ever have with 7 of the elite 8 picks correct. I find this funny because I agonized over picks for the last couple of years with results that were no better than this year when I did a speed run of the picking process. I don't think I have ever predicted the champion correctly since I started participating in the group several years ago. If I get it right this year, I'll laugh myself into oblivion. I need a good laugh.
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I just checked the group and was surprised to see you in 2nd as well Scott. Hopefully you can have a nice finish. My crazy 99.9%tile bracket has L'ville winning it all too so that would help us both. Other than Louisville, I'm hoping for upsets the rest of the way. I don't think I've ever had a bracket inside 100th place after the first 2 rounds. It could happen if I get lucky.
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Ugh, this year is just terrible for me! I can actually only get points from 3 more games: Louisville and Nova getting into the Final Four and Louisville winning it all. In my defense, I didn't really follow college hoops at all this year. Our team (Indiana) was just so bad that I wasn't interested much this whole season. And I don't have TV this year at school so I couldn't really watch much.
Since I started playing March Madness in 2003, I've picked the correct final winner in 2003, 2004, and 2008 (came very close in '05). Hopefully Louisville wins this year so I can go 4 for 7!
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It looks like I win with any uconn/unc final if pitt also reaches the final four and no matter what I have to fade the Lville/Mich St winner--I think a mich st over unc final would put me in a tie with PDO if pitt also reached the Final four.
ugh need pitt more than I thought I did.
Lville pickers
sdkess and lark can tie no matter what if they split the two games they have different left. Lark is looking for Uconn and Villanova while sdkess is looking for Missouri and Pittsburgh.
wiff needs chaos (best bet is OU to win 2 more games)
lockwood is eliminated (same bracket as lark)
wishall needs Lville over Pitt final
cyber and come also eliminated
pittsburgh pickers
ngamer's cousin (or whoever) looking really good right now for that bracket
ngamer--it looks like he needs pittsburgh to win AND OU AND LVILLE AND MISSOURI to reach the final four good luck with that (thanks to different final four games and he can't tie the final four round vs that cousin or else he's locked out)
spiderwaffle--I think he's fine with any pitt over lville final
matisko--same with pitt over mich st
Uconn pickers
reds--this is tough maybe a uconn over nova or OU final gets him a win. If mich st and OU win that probably gives him the title if uconn wins as well. UNC in the final means at best he ties (and that's if lville and pitt also lose).
mikers-- this is tough as well. Will need nova over pitt OR pitt over UNC to fight off wheat. OU over Uconn is only ok if Lville reaches the final four. He must get either UNC/LVille though to pass reds
looks like everyone else (save the nova/mich st champs) are eliminated.
A missouri OU final might get the win to wiff as he's got both of them in the final four.
I'm writing this at 5am so if I'm wrong well yeah...
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I'm not bothered by my performance at all. I know if more teams which I chose won, I would have defended my title as elite champ, so I can go home knowing that I'm still the best at making March Madness predictions.
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If more teams which you chose won? Hmm I think that applies to everyone.
I will win the whole thing if the Final Four is Louisville/Pitt/UConn/OU and Louisville beats Pitt in the championship. Lark/sdkess/wiff will beat me if UNC/UConn or even UNC/MU wins. And since I fully expect North Carolina to win...well, oh well.
EDIT: UConn wins! Pitt's behind though...argh, Villanova! Why must you have such clutch players...well I'm done.
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well how about that villanova
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Can't win, it looks like a UNC win is all for wheat. I'll be rooting for MSU and heck, I'm rooting for everybody but uconn and oklahoma!
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why the OU hate?:-p
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I've never liked teams from the whole south/central/midwest whatever area. Oklahoma, Nebraska, Kansas, Arkansas, Memphis, Texas etc. No real reason (https://forums.the-elite.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ezboard.com%2Fintl%2Faenglish%2Fimages%2Femoticons%2Fsmile.gif&hash=1adea417e08e9042f9ce1a5426616bf29f2ca20e) Oh wait, is that the bible belt? Maybe that's it, subconsciously. LOL
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I knew you were a bigot
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I wouldn't call that a fair assessment! I root against far more teams than I root for in general though, Pitt and UConn included, and usually pick teams with fun colors/names/upsets like Goose
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gg
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From what I can tell, the runner-ups aren't going to matter.
--Nobody who isn't already leading their "same winners" mini-pool has the potential to go 3/3 from here on out to potentially overtake that lead
--Given any winner, somebody has picked that team who is close enough that getting the winner right and the other finalist wrong is still enough to overtake anybody who has both finalists right, but the winner wrong. (480 points for finalist + winner, 320 for finalist + finalist, but mikers is within that gap of wheatrich who is the only person left with both finalists)
Which simply means...
UNC: Wheat
Villanova: Woll
Michigan St: G. King (?)
UConn: mikers
If UNC beats Michigan St., then my loss to Wheatrich will be completely from the first round, which I so boldly stated in chat "if the winner of this pool comes down to the first round picks, I'll eat my socks on youtube," but I believe I said WITHIN 30 POINTS, and I'm 40 points back.
Should this happen, I'll be relying on one of you chatloggers to make sure I'm not eating any socks :X
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I'm more impressed with UNC than any team so far this tournament. Usually they fail to play great defense, but through 4 games, they have really kept their opponents in check much more than I thought they would. I really think they win it all this year still. The Louisville loss was not surprising to me. They lost to UNLV, Minnesota and Western Kentucky in non-conference this year and I don't think they were nearly as strong as people perceived them to be. I hope michigan state knocks off uconn and we see a unc, michigan state finals.
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I'm rooting for the same, if just to stay within 40 points of 1st in the pool, but also b/c I like them. I wouldn't mind seeing nova win it all also and just be a total dark horse from out of the big east and not even be one of the "big three" from there.
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Agreed, a UNC vs Michigan State final would be awesome to me. I wanted to pick UNC for my bracket, but I got tired of them losing every time that I pick my home state team. My bracket is toast now, so I'm pulling for UNC all of the way!
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UNC definitely impressed me in the OU game...to an extent. Their offense was really not very good in the first half except for Danny Green, and they made plenty of silly mistakes late. They're still very good, but Hansbrough is certainly overrated and won't be able to handle Nova's defense. Both Final Four games should be excellent.
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I used the wrong bracket for the elite (https://forums.the-elite.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ezboard.com%2Fintl%2Faenglish%2Fimages%2Femoticons%2Ffrown.gif&hash=9bb8520656650a7c2457ae0ae2ee8996e4109fd6).
http://games.espn.go.com/tcmen/entry?entryID=1691550
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i think villanova is going all the way
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I didn't fill out a bracket, but I am going with U-Conn and Villanova in the championship game, and then Connecticut wins their third National Title.
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5th place behind Wheat, Octo and Jon's invites... I'll take it. Shows how good I am at everything of course, and that last year's win wasn't a fluke.
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Nice, 2nd place, and it came down to the first round which I boldly stated never matters in a group so small. I guess when the favorite wins, it does.
My best "bracket" was only 1400 this year (last year I had a top 1000), which oddly enough was a bracket that simply picked the favorites, based on Las Vegas betting odds before the tournament started. Guess I'm not smarter than them! Actually, no eliter was! Hehe.
Good win, wheat! Though despite there being so much chalk this season, nobodies bracket really impressed me as nobody was able to get anywhere near the final 4 correct.
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Nice, 2nd place, and it came down to the first round which I boldly stated never matters in a group so small. I guess when the favorite wins, it does.
when the favorite wins was referring to me and not unc obv (https://forums.the-elite.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ezboard.com%2Fintl%2Faenglish%2Fimages%2Femoticons%2Fwink.gif&hash=4979046fbfc7ed25a03644bf608e503c4aa73f0f)
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As usual March Madness was terrible for me betting wise
Total wins for Big East teams? Over 15.5 wins -137
Total wins for Pac 10 teams? Under 6.5 wins -150
Total wins for Big Ten teams? Under 8.5 wins -152 (hedged half with MSU ML in the F4)
How many #1 seeds will make the Final Four? Under 1.5 +102
West Virginia most wins vs Marquette -130
Duke most wins vs Oklahoma -135
Will a team from the Pac 10 win the title? Yes +3008 - didnt get far enough to consider hedge
Duke to win Championship 12/1 (placed mid-season) - didnt get far enough to consider hedge
Memphis to win Championship 30/1 (placed mid-season) - didnt get far enough to consider hedge
Kansas to win Championship 40/1 (placed after round 64) - didnt get far enough to consider hedge
Gonzaga to win Championship 75/1 (placed mid-season) - didnt get far enough to consider hedge
Missouri to win Championship 100/1 (placed mid-season) - didnt get far enough to hedge
BYU to win Championship 250/1 (placed mid-season) - didnt get far enough to consider hedge
Georgetown to win Big East 5/1 (not MM but may as well add to the failure record with this super LOL bet)