The Elite Forum
The Big Three Plus One => GoldenEye 007 => Topic started by: flukey lukey on July 06, 2014, 07:34:08 am
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Legit Fails:
IIII IIII IIII IIII IIII IIII IIII IIII IIII IIII IIII IIII IIII IIII IIII IIII IIII IIII IIII IIII IIII IIII IIII IIII IIII IIII IIII IIII IIII IIII IIII IIII IIII IIII IIII IIII IIII IIII IIII IIII IIII IIII IIII IIII II
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i want vids for each fail or else this pilgrimage is not legit
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Mine:
I (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rqiajQc9Eq8)III II
More than Boss :nesquik:
EDIT: Linked a proven one for Mirror :kappa: :kappa:
EDIT2: Got 9 more.
I (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rqiajQc9Eq8)III IIII IIII I
EDIT3: Approx
I (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rqiajQc9Eq8)III IIII IIII IIII IIII III (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vw5glfOzQUE)I
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Did Boss seriously get it that quick?
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Boss took like an hour, marc as well, and ace took like 3. At least ace was consistent failing 23s, but i know marc said he only failed a few before and same with boss. Pretty hilarious lol. Ill always view 23 as a solid time just for how unusual that luck is, though.
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Holy shit I need to play this level lol. I'll give it a good grind tomoz.
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IIII IIII IIII IIII IIII IIII IIII IIII IIII IIII IIII IIII IIII IIII IIII IIII IIII IIII IIII IIII IIII IIII IIII IIII IIII IIII IIII IIII IIII IIII IIII IIII IIII IIII IIII IIII IIII IIII IIII IIII IIII IIII IIII IIII IIII IIII IIII IIII IIII
My fails/hour have gotten ridiculously low these last few sessions, but at least many of those runs have 1 hostage escaped.
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Boss took like an hour, marc as well, and ace took like 3. At least ace was consistent failing 23s, but i know marc said he only failed a few before and same with boss. Pretty hilarious lol. Ill always view 23 as a solid time just for how unusual that luck is, though.
unusual but 3 people already fluked it, dunno though maybe Ace was failing like 60 legit 23s in an hour :nesquik:
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I had around 100 fails in about 2-3 hours.
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that is an awesome fail rate gosh darnit
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I was failing 23s like every other try and still took 70 hours or so. Thats ridiculously bad luck!
To be fair, i did choke a few 23s though. Had a few 24s with A up with a stuck, so i guess the few runs i did mess up got the rng. Typical games.
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playing frigate is like being a cleveland browns fan; all you're going to get is massive failure and a factory of sadness
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I'd like to mention that Luckwood completed his first 24 run ever with A up for a second. GE is not fair :'(
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I honestly think Frigate odds are over exaggerated. Who struggled for times? Jimbo 70h for 25. He's a notorious run choker, was probably shooting too much, failing 1 25 per 3 hour session, etc. Wouter 150h for 23. Same kind of deal. Probably got 1 23 fail per hour and spent the next 40 minutes making a video of it.
In reality there are 7 escape points. That's 1 in 49 for best escape points. Sure, the hostage can get stuck on the chair, but how often does that happen? Even if 9/10 times he gets stuck, that's still 1 in 500 runs will complete for 23, which shouldn't take more than 50 hours for ANYONE. And this is being EXTREMELY conservative with the hostage-stuck-on-chair odds. In reality it's more like 1 in 100 for 23 completion, so 100 fails should realistically take 10-20 hours at WORST. Any more unlucky than that and there is clearly something (your own lack of skill) working against you, a la Wouter or Jimbo.
I took probably under 5 hours for 24, was the first to get it as a non-WR back in 2006, and haven't touched the level since. It might be a fun stream level. Rack up 100 or 200 fails on stream and see what happens. #CanYouDigItInTheFrigate
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The problem with frigate agent streaming is theres no build up of excitement and hype. Its essentially a complete grind of runs that are only meaningful of the luck factor completes, and there will never be a moment of "omg this is the run" etc. Would be sick to see a live reaction to a 23 though...
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Frigate Agent was the reason I took a break for almost a year from GE back in 2007, when I was grinding for anything better than my current PR of 26. I got 24 fails almost every try, even had a few 23 fails, yet I stopped playing after about 20 hours (which is still more than I've spent on, pretty much, any of my current PRs). During this time I didn't have a single A complete, not even a fail.
Then I returned to the level in 2009 and I got two A completes in 30 minutes. I'm not looking forward to the grind for 24/23 eventually.
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it's a total bs level, should be removed from the rankings etc
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Then I returned to the level in 2009 and I got two A completes in 30 minutes
It's wierd how this happens, I also had several (3) A completions within a short time span immediately after i started playing again, and nothing ever since. Seems to me like this should be a very unlikely scenario.
In reality there are 7 6 escape points.
Fixed.
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Hostage fail: many
Bug fail: 1
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Why do you open the bug door from the side with the 2005 Wouter strat? Doesn't seem to do much other than ruining your bug consistency.
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It's time to scrutinize this level and the myth of 0:23 hostages carefully;
There are 6 escape points, and 2 hostages make that 1/36. This is basic statistics. Let's assume the first hostage gets stuck on the chair 1/2 runs as well. That makes it 1/72. Let's also assume that some people, for whatever reason, like to continue runs where the hostage taker has choking deaths and runs where they fail the bug. If each of those are also 1/2, then that makes a 0:23 hostages 1/288 runs, which is a very generous estimation given how a few of us haven't even had more than 200 fails. However many of us are intelligent and don't bother continuing bad runs, so in reality it is actually 1/100 to 1/200.
A good player will normally require a few hours of play to develop the muscle memory to consistently fail 0:23s. A good player will fail around 15-20 completely legit 0:23s (good deaths, B complete etc.) per hour. This is once every 3-4 minutes, which is being pretty generous. This is around 150-200 fails in 10 hours. Going by our statistics, it should not take more than 10-12 hours to get 0:23 hostages. This is assuming you don't massively choke the ramp, dupe a very low 0:24, etc. Does this comply with our observations?
1. Wouter Jansen;
120 hours, but 6 0:24s, a 0:23 bug fail and his 0:23. 8 fast hostages in 120 hours of play is 15 hours.
2. Bryan Bosshardt;
Like 3-4 hours, unsure how many fails but guessing 50-100.
3. Rayan I.;
3 hours, 100-200 fails.
4. Marc Rutzou;
1 hour, supposedly only one 0:23 fail.
5. David Clemens;
Apparently 40 hours,
I'm too lazy to finish this post. I will do it later. But you can clearly tell already that the average time for 0:23 so far is not more than 10-15.
So in short, 0:23 is not a 100 hour time STOP SAYING IT IS AND REQUIRES RIDICULOUS LUCK WHEN IT DOESN'T!!!
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I averaged 1 23 speed hostages completion every 3 hours (2 in the 6 hours I played).
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There are 6 escape points, and 2 hostages make that 1/36. This is basic statistics.
It's 1/41 because the escape points are not uniformly distributed (SOURCE (http://forums.the-elite.net/forum/index.php?topic=18518.msg386044#msg386044)).
it should not take more than 10-12 hours to get 0:23 hostages.
And there is the problem, because when you get unlucky with rare events you're completely fucked. Yes, if you're on the luckier half of people it'll complete within ~100 fails. But people often had no FR or no Doak 30+ times in a row, and if you get that kind of luck on Frigate then there's no guarantee that it'll ever complete for you. I might make a more precise post about this.
Marc didn't have just a single fail, he overhyped his luck. He told me he had 15-20 or something.
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Yeah I thought it was 1/42, but Henrik's post said 1/6... I knew something was off.
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And there is the problem, because when you get unlucky with rare events you're completely fucked. Yes, if you're on the luckier half of people it'll complete within ~100 fails. But people often had no FR or no Doak 30+ times in a row, and if you get that kind of luck on Frigate then there's no guarantee that it'll ever complete for you. I might make a more precise post about this.
I have also had many sessions with Doak in the best spot quite often though (2 0:54s in a row), so it does balance out. The same applies to Frigate.
You can't really say all of these people with 0:23 got lucky. To me it's around average or slightly better than average luck. The people who took more time probably weren't consistent, choked 0:23 hostages or had horrible RNG. I want to say the last one, but consistency matters more than anything else here.
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The people who took more time probably weren't consistent, choked 0:23 hostages or had horrible RNG. I want to say the last one, but consistency matters more than anything else here.
Well the consistency factor is why time becomes irrelevant when talking about luck, only number of legit fails matters (23 + Obj B Complete + Kill Count: >= 3). And of course, if Obj A completes in 23 speed and you choke it, then it's your own fault.
What's the maximum amount legit 23 fails (no Obj A whatsoever) that anyone's ever had?
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I had probably 100ish fully legit ones. Marc 20. Karl around 100. Boss like 50? Cliff only a few when he had a 0:23 bug fail. I don't know about Wouter but I believe he had many 0:23 chances anyway. Clemens probably had a lot but he had bad luck for sure.
So in reality it shouldn't be more than 100-200 legit fails. I know time spent is irrelevant, but most of us go by that when judging a record's strength so I mentioned it anyway.
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I recall having 2 24s with obj a on screen but those were very rare runs and i recall they were also right when i started going for 23, so i went a good like 40-ish hours after that with no obj a completions. I failed 7 23s in a row once so i feel like i was very consistent, and i always made suire to shoot as few bullets as possible and stuff too. I think every player who went for 23 had quite a few low 24 fails with a stuck or a bug throw fail etc. Karl had a 23 bug throw fail and ive never even had that before. So its fair to say that in the end its still mostly just luck to have a complete on the right run, although consistency will greatly improve these odds. Honestly though i have had sick luck on sa/00 so it balances out in the endz.
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Consistency was never an issue for me.
I think the main issue for me was I had never thought about death animations affecting the speed, even though it's very obvious now.
Thus I never quit out on runs without good enough deaths like should be done.
I did have a 23 B fail after around 40h, though I usually would quit runs where I fail the bug ;p
Besides the chair there are also other factors that can delay both hostages on runs where they choose the optimal path, I have no clue what the odds of the optimal path being chosen also gets jogged within 23 speed, maybe Henrik could give insight?
I don't know why people try to make sense of how good or bad an old time is by using knowledge gained after said time was gotten.