The Elite Forum
The Big Three Plus One => GoldenEye 007 => Topic started by: Jimbo on January 08, 2015, 11:36:11 pm
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Alright guys, after some group input and collaboration, we've made some prop bets (over/under) for the race. Each level has one prop, none of them being run-ending on purpose. 15 people have participated on my sheet in addition to what will be posted here.
RULES:
Each correct guess is worth +1, each incorrect guess is worth - 1. You are not required to take a pick on every prop, but that's no fun if you skip. There will be four players contributing to each criteria to clarify. Here are the props. Copy and pick below.
Dam 0.5 bad cinemas
Facility 0.5 worst Trevs (in tanks)
Runway 1.5 0:23 or better
Surface 1 1.5 missed latter warps
Bunker 1 0.5 0:19 or better
Silo 1.5 1:12 or better
Frigate 0.5 0:35 or better
Surface 2 1.5 missed last door warp (what else?)
Bunker 2 0.5 0:30 or better
Statue 0.5 xx:35.00 return or greater
Archives 0.5 0:17 or better
Streets 0.5 1:15 or better
Depot 1.5 effective trainshots (guard has to be alerted)
Train 0.5 Ouromov still alive
Jungle 1.5 0:59 or better
Control 1.5 Obj C before B
Caverns 0.5 1:04 or better
Cradle 1.5 Trev early death (on ramp, no running, grenades included)
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just for fun
Under- Dam 0.5 bad cinemas
Over- Facility 0.5 worst Trevs
Over- Runway 1.5 0:23 or better
Under- Surface 1 1.5 missed latter warps
Over- Bunker 1 0.5 0:19 or better
Under- Silo 1.5 1:12 or better
Over- Frigate 0.5 0:35 or better
Under- Surface 2 1.5 missed last door warp
Over- Bunker 2 0.5 0:30 or better
Over- Statue 0.5 xx:35.00 return or greater
Under- Archives 0.5 0:17 or better
Over- Streets 0.5 1:15 or better
Over- Depot 1.5 effective trainshots
Under- Train 0.5 Ouromov still alive
Under- Jungle 1.5 0:59 or better
Over- Control 1.5 Obj C before B
Over- Caverns 0.5 1:04 or better
Under- Cradle 1.5 Trev early death
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edit - Runway pick modified
OVER - Dam 0.5 bad cinemas
just 0.5? OVER obv - Facility 0.5 worst Trevs (in tanks)
OVER - Runway 1.5 0:23 or better
OVER - Surface 1 1.5 missed latter warps
OVER - Bunker 1 0.5 0:19 or better
OVER - Silo 1.5 1:12 or better
UNDER - Frigate 0.5 0:35 or better
UNDER - Surface 2 1.5 missed last door warp (what else?)
OVER - Bunker 2 0.5 0:30 or better
UNDER - Statue 0.5 xx:35.00 return or greater
UNDER - Archives 0.5 0:17 or better
OVER - Streets 0.5 1:15 or better
OVER - Depot 1.5 effective trainshots (guard has to be alerted)
UNDER - Train 0.5 Ouromov still alive
OVER - Jungle 1.5 0:59 or better
OVER - Control 1.5 Obj C before B
UNDER - Caverns 0.5 1:04 or better
UNDER - Cradle 1.5 Trev early death (on ramp, no running, grenades included)
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Dam 0.5 bad cinemas - OVER (1)
Facility 0.5 worst Trevs (in tanks) - OVER (2)
Runway 1.5 0:23 or better - UNDER (1)
Surface 1 1.5 missed ladder warps - OVER (2)
Bunker 1 0.5 0:19 or better - OVER (3)
Silo 1.5 1:12 or better - UNDER (1)
Frigate 0.5 0:35 or better - OVER (1)
Surface 2 1.5 missed last door warp (what else?) - OVER (2)
Bunker 2 0.5 0:30 or better - OVER (2)
Statue 0.5 xx:35.00 return or greater - UNDER (1)
Archives 0.5 0:17 or better - OVER (1)
Streets 0.5 1:15 or better - OVER (1)
Depot 1.5 effective trainshots (guard has to be alerted) - UNDER (0)
Train 0.5 Ouromov still alive - UNDER (0)
Jungle 1.5 0:59 or better - OVER (2)
Control 1.5 Obj C before B - OVER (2)
Caverns 0.5 1:04 or better - UNDER (0)
Cradle 1.5 Trev early death (on ramp, no running, grenades included) - UNDER (1)
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better prop bet for runway, but 10 levels with _:__ or better is kinda boring, but yeah, not much else i guess, still fun
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Dam 0.5 bad cinemas
Over. I expect at least one person to get screwed by a bad cinema (1/4 is not too bad).
Facility 0.5 worst Trevs (in tanks)
Under. If Goose was playing I would say over but good thing he isn't.
Runway 1.5 0:23 or better
Over. They all get 0:23. How can you not get 0:23?
Surface 1 1.5 missed latter warps
Over. Boss will 100% get it. At least 1 of the other 3 players gets it.
Bunker 1 0.5 0:19 or better
Over. Only one person gets it however because very few people know how B1 A is to be played in an RTA.
Silo 1.5 1:12 or better
Over.
Frigate 0.5 0:35 or better
Over.
Surface 2 1.5 missed last door warp (what else?)
Under. You can't be that bad..
Bunker 2 0.5 0:30 or better
Over.
Statue 0.5 xx:35.00 return or greater
Over. One person will definitely get a 1:0 return and that is enough to get a 35.xx.
Archives 0.5 0:17 or better
Under. Everyone will choke this level.
Streets 0.5 1:15 or better
Over.
Depot 1.5 effective trainshots (guard has to be alerted)
Under.
Train 0.5 Ouromov still alive
Under. Lol.
Jungle 1.5 0:59 or better
Over. 0:59 is terrible. No one should get worse.
Control 1.5 Obj C before B
Over.
Caverns 0.5 1:04 or better
Over.
Cradle 1.5 Trev early death (on ramp, no running, grenades included)
Under.
m8
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Dam 0.5 bad cinemas
Over. I expect at least one person to get screwed by a bad cinema (1/4 is not too bad).
Don't want to think about probability distributions right now, but it might be more likely than not for at least one of them to get it.
Runway 1.5 0:23 or better
Over. They all get 0:23. How can you not get 0:23?
've seen folks miss a boost priming down... you never know
Archives 0.5 0:17 or better
Under. Everyone will choke this level.
:v
Streets 0.5 1:15 or better
Over.
If no one gets 1:16 or worse I'm drowning myself in the toilet
Just casual comment here, no bets per se
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Over on all.
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Dam 0.5 bad cinemas OVER
Facility 0.5 worst Trevs (in tanks) OVER
Runway 1.5 0:23 or better OVER (2)
Surface 1 1.5 missed latter warps UNDER
Bunker 1 0.5 0:19 or better OVER
Silo 1.5 1:12 or better UNDER
Frigate 0.5 0:35 or better OVER (someone has to get fast hostages no?)
Surface 2 1.5 missed last door warp (what else?) UNDER
Bunker 2 0.5 0:30 or better OVER
Statue 0.5 xx:35.00 return or greater OVER
Archives 0.5 0:17 or better OVER (someone will get 16)
Streets 0.5 1:15 or better OVER
Depot 1.5 effective trainshots (guard has to be alerted) OVER
Train 0.5 Ouromov still alive OVER
Jungle 1.5 0:59 or better OVER
Control 1.5 Obj C before B OVER
Caverns 0.5 1:04 or better OVER
Cradle 1.5 Trev early death (on ramp, no running, grenades included) OVER (2)
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Under- Dam 0.5 bad cinemas
Under- Facility 0.5 worst Trevs
Over- Runway 1.5 0:23 or better
Under- Surface 1 1.5 missed latter warps
Over- Bunker 1 0.5 0:19 or better
Under- Silo 1.5 1:12 or better
Over- Frigate 0.5 0:35 or better
Under- Surface 2 1.5 missed last door warp
Under- Bunker 2 0.5 0:30 or better
Over- Statue 0.5 xx:35.00 return or greater
Over- Archives 0.5 0:17 or better
Over- Streets 0.5 1:15 or better
Under- Depot 1.5 effective trainshots
Under- Train 0.5 Ouromov still alive
Under- Jungle 1.5 0:59 or better
Over- Control 1.5 Obj C before B
Under- Caverns 0.5 1:04 or better
Under- Cradle 1.5 Trev early death
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RESULTS:
UNDER- Dam 0.5 bad cinemas
UNDER- Facility 0.5 worst Trevs (in tanks)
UNDER- Runway 1.5 0:23 or better
OVER- Surface 1 1.5 missed latter warps
OVER- Bunker 1 0.5 0:19 or better
UNDER- Silo 1.5 1:12 or better
UNDER- Frigate 0.5 0:35 or better
UNDER- Surface 2 1.5 missed last door warp (what else?)
UNDER- Bunker 2 0.5 0:30 or better
UNDER- Statue 0.5 xx:35.00 return or greater
UNDER- Archives 0.5 0:17 or better
UNDER- Streets 0.5 1:15 or better
UNDER- Depot 1.5 effective trainshots (guard has to be alerted)
UNDER- Train 0.5 Ouromov still alive
OVER- Jungle 1.5 0:59 or better
OVER- Control 1.5 Obj C before B
UNDER- Caverns 0.5 1:04 or better
UNDER- Cradle 1.5 Trev early death (on ramp, no running, grenades included)
the only one i'm unsure of is bunker 1 actually, wodahs might have gotten 19 but i couldnt see his time no matter how many times i tried, the run looked good enough
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After approximately 3 million tries, I was finally able to pause at the right frame:
(https://i.imgur.com/8BHmQLi.jpg)
19 indeed.