The Elite Forum
The Big Three Plus One => GoldenEye 007 => Topic started by: DYM on August 23, 2016, 05:50:05 am
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Whenever we make barrier prediction thread like these, most people tend to say "yes, this barrier will be broken because we've always been proven wrong". I'll be honest and say I wasn't expecting 1:12:00 to be broken, but there was a sudden influx of new strats in 2014 & 2015 that definitely helped make it possible.
But I am 100% confident this time is different. We're 52 seconds away and untieds are more cooked than ever. Unless there is a major breakthrough on a level, I don't see 1:10:59 happening. Let's estimate some of the more "realistic" untieds with current strats to see how much we can save:
Facility SA 0:51 (1)
Runway 00A 0:32 (2)
S1 00A 1:47 (1)
B1 SA 0:20 (1)
B1 00A 1:01 (1)
Silo A 0:59 (1)
Silo SA 1:07 (1)
Silo 00A 1:19 (2)
Frigate A 0:22 (1)
Frigate 00A 1:04 (1)
S2 SA 0:47 (1)
Surface 2 00A 1:23 (1)
B2 00A 0:53 (1)
Statue 00A 2:17 (1)
Archives 0:53s (2)
Depot 00A 0:46 (1)
Train 00A 1:48 (1)
Jungle SA 0:52 (1)
Jungle 00A 0:53 (1)
Control SA 4:02 (1)
Control 00A 4:03 (1)
Caverns SA 1:12 (1)
Caverns 00A 1:29 (1)
Aztec A 1:23 (1)
Aztec SA 1:30 (1)
Aztec 00A 1:35 (2)
Egypt A 0:44 (1)
That's *only* 31 seconds, bringing the total time down to 1:11:20 will all these cooked untieds! So do you think 1:10:59 will ever see the light of the day? VOTE!
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Gotta agree with Rayan here. Call me a pessimist if you want, but 1:10:59 won't happen (unless of course someone breaks Control or any other level).
Odd that you didn't list Archives A 0:15 though.
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lol at egypt 44 A but not sa/00. lol at aztecs still not w/o BA. etc
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break control and it will happen :kappa:
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This is a mix of realistic to madenning times but just to wittle down the 21 secs;
Dam 0:52
Streets 1:10
Streets SA 1:53
Surface2 A 0:46
Surface2 SA 47
Archives 15
Possibly 1:29 Aztec SA (I think Marc got some 100 quit outs at mainframe skipping BA - no glass but buffered some time to emulate it semi accurately)
Assuming a .3-6 save can work, Streets 00 1:53
Frigate SA 0:59 (I mean, you and Luke P already got it unrecorded :kappa:)
Cradle A SA 00 0:33 {3}
Statue SA 2:17
Egypt SA/00 44 (we have the timesavers for agent why not)
Bunker2 00 53 (I think Alex had some fails)
Train 56 (because Marc)
Even with this 5 seconds is left. Aztec 00 BA-less?
No way its happening unless we can borrow barrier skip from WW HD. :nesquik:
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New strats (or a huge one of course) are needed.
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One thing I learned t-e is never say never, I'm sure people from 2020 will laugh at this topic.
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You're only one of the few who learn that. And with it comes a better mind to be open to see and seize opportunities :)
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If you want to talk about crazy times I'm sure S2 00A can go down quite a bit more than just 1:23. It has potential to lose massive time.
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Sounds like we need another max times pred thread. :v
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I think Jungle 49 is more attainable than some of the mentioned times (especially Organ's). Imagine using the excess mine on Illu's 50, giving 10:0. Mix in Marc strafing, 2.2, all right strafe to Xenia, ez 49.
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Dam Agent 52 (All the boosts + 2.x + fast gate = 52, someone just needs to grind it hard) (1)
Facility SA/00 51 (Paces have been achieved on both difficulties) (2)
Runway 00 32 (Not sure about this but I've heard the time 32 thrown around and I believe some failed it?) (2)
Surface 1 Agent 101 (2.x with perfect strafing + 15 shot locks + crouch should do it) (1)
SA/00 146 (Gus' run with better movement, better hole entry and more guard boosts = untied) (2)
Bunker 1 Agent 16 (Good movement + my boost strat + woody ending + instawarp = 16) (1)
SA 20 (Ace has failed this a billion times now) (1)
00 101 (surprised no one has used the new strat yet, could go lower I guess) (1)
Silo Agent 59 (perfect run basically)
SA 106 (random guess but i've heard this number thrown around) (2)
00 119 (ideal time with the last door cycle) (2)
Frigate Agent 22 (Numerous fails from various players especially Ace) (1)
SA 59 (pettit)
00 102 (fastest fail? clem/alex have some ridic fails lying around) (3)
Surface 2 Agent 46 (should've happened already tbh) (1)
SA 47 (also should've happened by now) (1)
00 122 (this is w/o TAS 3rd cam and optimal 2nd cam but I can see about a 2s loss in Boss' run) (2)
Bunker 2 SA 42 (44 with new strat) (2)
00 52 (fastest fail) (2)
Statue 217s (3)
Archives 15/53/53 (2.x proven to be not so bad, still requires a 2.x pro though) (3)
Streets Agent 110 (perfect run) (1)
SA/00 153 (perfect run) (2)
Depot SA 38 (fastest fail, just need a bunch of boosts) (1)
00 46 (same as 38 really though slightly easier I think?) (1)
Train agent 56 (marc lol) (1)
SA 122 (marc lol) (1)
00 148 (marc lol) (1)
Jungle 49 (ohmss says so) (1)
52 (surprised this hasn't been done yet w/ all the new strats) (1)
53 (same as SA) (1)
Control agent 355 (been failed before) (1)
SA 402 (ace says so) (1)
00 403 (ace says so) (1)
Caverns SA 111 (seems like the max) (2)
00 128 (not sure about this either but I've heard this time thrown around) (2)
Aztec 122 (perfect run I guess) (2)
130 (dunno) (1)
135 (dunno) (2)
Egypt 44/44/44 (3)
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Looking at how much the overall time has changed in the last few years i do think its possible with a few new strats and timesaves.
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Good news, I realised Aztec SA/00A can go a LOT lower. Like 1:27/1:28 on SA and maybe 1:31 on 00 Agent. Those are perfect runs with current strats, but there's definitely a lot more to be saved even on standard good runs.
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Bumping this due to recent events :cool:
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One thing I learned t-e is never say never, I'm sure people from 2020 will laugh at this topic.
wow
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A list of preds from this thread that still haven't happened:
Silo /1:06/1:19 (lol for SA)
Aztec 1:22/1:28
Streets 1:10/1:53/1:53
Statue 2:17/2:17/2:17 (mirror predded it on agent but is it even possible?)
Caverns 1:11/1:28
Train 56/1:22 (56 could happen any day)
Frigate 00 1:02 (lmao)
Bunker 2 00 0:52
Depot SA 0:38
Surface 1 1:01//1:46 (crazy pred tbh for 00)
That's a total of a further 23 seconds to cut. Plus there are now multible more confirmed to be possible (jungle 51/52 (52 could happen any day), cav 1:00, lower on surface 2 00, dam 00 1:53/1:54, frigate 21, dam sa 1:15 + some more I'm missing)
Crazy times we live in.
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I think it would just be wrong to expect anything less than the unbelievable from this community.
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Looking back at this topic, the overall theme seems to be the same as previous iterations, in that even if you list every plausible untied, you're still underestimating the actual amount of time that will be cut. And this is despite the fact that not all of the predicted times have even happened yet (though alot of them did happen of course). So a large chunk of time cut comes from unexpected WRs. Out of Ace's predicted 31 seconds, only 4 seconds have not been achieved yet, and an additional 26 seconds have been cut by unexpected records. That's almost 50%. Currently we have at least close to 30 seconds of plausible predictable untieds left, but given this, should we expect there to be an additional 30 seconds that we can't predict? If so, 1:09:59 could happen.
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Yeah, Henrik is bang on. Even if you list every plausible untied, you're still underestimating the time cut. All the "predicted", "plausible" records will eventually happen, plus a lot of unexpected ones too.
I actually started making a 1:09:59 thread the other night but ceebsed it halfway through. One thing you notice is that, you start going down the 00 Agent column, and so many levels start showing potential for 3-4 seconds cut...
Silo 00A 1:18 (maybe even lower)
Frigate 00A 1:01 (the speed has been failed)
Surface 2 00A 1:18 (imagine any combination of new 3rd cam + 2 nades or window shot)
Bunker 2 00A 0:51 (I think this has been failed?)
Caverns 00A 1:27 at least
That's 14 seconds right there, without new strategies, developments, or even "seeing" things in a new state.
Then you can't even fathom guesses for Control and Aztec, due to the regularity of new developments there. Yes, it *feels* like we're getting closer and closer to the limit, but who knows.
Some people will laugh or disbelieve, but I personally know stuff like Streets SA/00A 1:52 are possible. I've "seen" the runs. Just take my 1:54 SA start, my 1:54 00A strafing portion, remove the backboost, and it's 1:53. Then add in the Grenade Launcher, which isn't even that ridiculous in this day & age, and surely 4-6 more boosts (combination of S1 style and bounce boosts) can save another second. So even reservedly, if you don't want to think about GL strats on 00A, there's still another 3 seconds on Streets with 1:52 SA/1:53 00A....
Something like Silo SA 1:06 is definitely possible, I think I had it pegged at 1:05 or 1:04 as a theoretical max years ago. It's basically impossible to "max" these chaos levels... until you do it.
I'll go out there and say it now. 1:09:59 will happen. It'll happen sometime in the 2020's. We'll probably reach many of the times outlined in this post and thread, but maybe some will still evade us. And there will be many, many more surprises awaiting.
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I know my streets knowledge is irrel compared to someone like goose but i agree with 1:10/1:52/1:52 dont think 00 1:52 will ever happen though IMO
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It would be good to see a top player take the initiative and play silo 00. 121 was set in 2014 and is long overdue to be beaten. It's probably a really troll and frustrating grind, but definitely a wide open opportunity for an untied if anyone has the patience for it.
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S1 A 101 is happening soon. SA 145 and 00 146 are very possible. 146 00 is easier than SA 145 though (SA 146 is tier 1 while 00 147 is tier 2). Got a handful of 146 paces on 00, but it's hard to survive on such good runs. I might go for 146 00 if I get the sweep soon.
Streets 110 should happen within a year or two. Same with 153s I think. Frigate Agent 21 could happen, but it's tricky to pace with 2.3. I've only had two fails so far. I don't know how feasible SA 57 is though. S2 SA 46 is already proven to be possible, so that's gonna happen within a year I think. Dam SA 115 can be done with 1.2 with the normal strat, so 114 isn't that unthinkable with 2.x and window strat. Jungle A 48 seems very tight, but should be possible.
Dam A, Runway SA, B1 A/SA, S2 A, B2 A, Archives A/SA/00 and Depot A all seem very tough to untie with current strats.
Theoretical maxed times on Train are very interesting though. It's hard to call how low we're gonna be able to go here.
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Jungle will be 0:49/0:51/0:52 very soon. From there each difficulty can be lowered an additional second in theory but will be very unlikely anyone makes that push considering how historically underplayed and unoptimized the level is. Only time tells!
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I ran an eye over the records a few days ago and I got to 1:10:3X by counting up savings. But if I look now with the mindset of "which of these 60 times do I know are maxed?" it's like:
Dam A
Fac A
Runway SA/00A?
B1 A?
S2 A?
Statue A?
Archives A, SA/00A?
B2 A?
Control A?
Where ?s I feel like it would seem silly not to put them on the list, but I'm not certain. There might be a few more that are "effectively maxed" or whatever, and there's plenty that I just don't know anything about like Egypt 44s. So then the question is how many levels can multiple seconds be cut from?
I don't think the list is too long, but I think it might be long enough. Mostly at this point it's luck-dependent levels or levels which have more aggresive strategies with worse odds (i.e. cavs SA A from above). It's easy to put a lot of hope on Aztec but even without it there are options. I've only become a believer recently but Frig SA 2.3 skipping a pause could definitely cut 2s+. And there could be hope for 2s in 00 randy door. Jungle definitely looks weak. B2 SA is 'new'. I've never liked B1 00 1:XX.
Atleast in my current mood I see 1:10:0X, and I'd definitely put some heavy bounties on times at that point. Maybe not enough for people to play OOK but it would be close. I'm not sure there are many surprises left that aren't atleast whispered about in the dead of night, but perhaps there are enough 3s cuts, and maybe aztec could take a tumble after all.
Or a control OOB could rock up and spoil the whole party.
Frigate Agent 21 could happen, but it's tricky to pace with 2.3. I've only had two fails so far.
I really think 21 will be a breeze. 20 is a stretch but 22.35 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3iDsD9WIk9w) - 0.85 for a decent throw - 0.5 from keeping left strafe in the corridor = 21.00, and that kill isn't remotely yolo, and the run is boostless. Boosts are only common with a difficult return corridor but they atleast compensate for it. I feel like I've tried to advocate for the strat and just been cursed with bad luck but the hostage odds really aren't that bad in 2.3.
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I ran an eye over the records a few days ago and I got to 1:10:3X by counting up savings. But if I look now with the mindset of "which of these 60 times do I know are maxed?" it's like:
Dam A
Fac A
Runway SA/00A?
00a 27 is very doable
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Like everyone else, I've also been wondering about how much time is left to cut. At first glance it seems like there's little left, but the more you think about it the more time you find. I talked to a few other (more knowledgeable) Eliters and we came up with a spreadsheet of possible time saves which would bring the overall total down to 1:09:47.
The spreadsheet has 2 charts, the left is the current WRs, color coded based on how much time save is theorized (0s, 1s, or more than 1s). On the right is the theorized future rankings page. The future times are color coded as "Reasonable", "Possible", and "Theoretical", but those should be explained a bit. Any time considered "Reasonable" in this context is still absolutely mad, but it was considered reasonable in the fact that it's KNOWN to be possible TODAY (a lot of these have been failed). The "Possible" label is for times that are generally accepted to be possible, but maybe nobody has ever paced it before, or would take an insane grind to achieve. The final label, "Theoretical", is for the most fucktus of fucktus times, they are theorized to be possible with current strats, but still largely unproven and/or would take ridiculous grinds to be possible yet not outside the realm of possibility.
There are a few levels which could really use input from their respective experts, particularly Train and Control, but all of the times that are bolded & italicized are the least confident.
Without further ado the spreadsheet:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Q58hoUGFk7ASLscZebzSFVnOlMWVvbTuI1MXxfyTDt4/edit?usp=sharing (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Q58hoUGFk7ASLscZebzSFVnOlMWVvbTuI1MXxfyTDt4/edit?usp=sharing)
Everyone should have the ability to leave comments on the document, please feel free to leave suggestions there or here, I'd like to make this as widely accepted as possible.
My personal opinion is that 1:09:59 will happen, but it will be the longest minute barrier by far and won't be happening any time in the near future, possibly not even by 2030. Both 1:12 and 1:11 took over 4 years to break, and since 1:13:00 each barrier has taken significantly longer than all previous ones. Even if all of the times theorized don't happen (some may be impossible but we can work that out), there's still enough room for 1:09:59 one day. Without some game breaking discoveries I don't see the 1:09 barrier ever falling.
Obviously some game breaking discovery makes all of this pointless... :rollin:
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Lol why would jungle 48 be in theorized but not jungle SA 50 or 00 51? Trust me the 48/50/51 is the theory god runs without any new strats. Even if I don't believe anyone will grind for it I still know them to be possible today, esp SA/00.
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Like everyone else, I've also been wondering about how much time is left to cut. At first glance it seems like there's little left, but the more you think about it the more time you find. I talked to a few other (more knowledgeable) Eliters and we came up with a spreadsheet of possible time saves which would bring the overall total down to 1:09:47.
The spreadsheet has 2 charts, the left is the current WRs, color coded based on how much time save is theorized (0s, 1s, or more than 1s). On the right is the theorized future rankings page. The future times are color coded as "Reasonable", "Possible", and "Theoretical", but those should be explained a bit. Any time considered "Reasonable" in this context is still absolutely mad, but it was considered reasonable in the fact that it's KNOWN to be possible TODAY (a lot of these have been failed). The "Possible" label is for times that are generally accepted to be possible, but maybe nobody has ever paced it before, or would take an insane grind to achieve. The final label, "Theoretical", is for the most fucktus of fucktus times, they are theorized to be possible with current strats, but still largely unproven and/or would take ridiculous grinds to be possible yet not outside the realm of possibility.
There are a few levels which could really use input from their respective experts, particularly Train and Control, but all of the times that are bolded & italicized are the least confident.
Without further ado the spreadsheet:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Q58hoUGFk7ASLscZebzSFVnOlMWVvbTuI1MXxfyTDt4/edit?usp=sharing (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Q58hoUGFk7ASLscZebzSFVnOlMWVvbTuI1MXxfyTDt4/edit?usp=sharing)
Everyone should have the ability to leave comments on the document, please feel free to leave suggestions there or here, I'd like to make this as widely accepted as possible.
My personal opinion is that 1:09:59 will happen, but it will be the longest minute barrier by far and won't be happening any time in the near future, possibly not even by 2030. Both 1:12 and 1:11 took over 4 years to break, and since 1:13:00 each barrier has taken significantly longer than all previous ones. Even if all of the times theorized don't happen (some may be impossible but we can work that out), there's still enough room for 1:09:59 one day. Without some game breaking discoveries I don't see the 1:09 barrier ever falling.
Obviously some game breaking discovery makes all of this pointless... :rollin:
Super cool list, but wouldn't b2 agent 22 be possible with cell warp and b1 sa 19 with some 2.3 fuckery? Boostless 23 has been achieved, so perhaps cell warp + boost would result in 22 and I heard there was possible time save on b1 sa by making a guard open a door by shooting during the cutscene with 2.3, but I don't know much about it.