The Elite Forum
The Big Three Plus One => GoldenEye 007 => Topic started by: Icy on August 13, 2017, 07:41:25 pm
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Untied sweeps are one of the most dominating achievements a player can get in Goldeneye, and only a handful of the best of the best have accomplished them. As time goes on and the finiteness of remaining untieds becomes more and more clear, there's a possibility we'll never see an untied sweep ever again. Let's go over the 20 levels and do some analyzing.
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Dam: Karl is well on his way to getting Dam 52, but an untied sweep on the level would also require SA 1:15 and 00A 1:54. I wouldn't put it past him to get the current WRs, but new untieds on both seem beyond his ability and interest, and I don't see anyone who could also be untying and maintaining the untied of 0:52 on Agent.
Facility: Ace has demonstrated he's absolutely capable of 0:51 on SA, and by extension and deep frying, he should be capable of it on 00A as well. Actually getting them is a different story, but I think they'll eventually happen. 0:42 on Agent would also be an insane untied to happen, and most likely would be achieved by Ace. I imagine all the WRs will happen over long enough time and Ace is definitely the top pick for all three, but holding them all as untieds simultaneously probably won't happen. Who knows!
Runway: 0:21 isn't happening on Agent and certainly isn't happening on SA. No untied sweeps here.
Surface 1: If an untied sweep is happening here, it'll definitely be by Gus with already having SA as an untied for over a year. 1:47 on 00A is definitely harder, but should be within his reach. Agent is the tricky one though and would require either an insane run with boosts, 2.X, and perfect locks, or otherwise usage of the tree strat. Would Gus be the one to untie it? I'm leaning on no.
Bunker 1: 0:20 on SA has been waiting to happen for a long time, and 00A can certainly be untied, but the slaying of a Boring 4 WR would be a huge deal here. Ace and Grav have expressed interest in untieds across Bunker 1, but I don't think either will be holding all three. Untieds will happen here, but not an untied sweep.
Silo: Being one of the more skillful levels, at least a second can be cut on every difficulty. It seems like Marc would be getting 0:59 on Agent, with Ace getting SA 1:07, and 00A is a toss-up among a handful of potential players. Silo could be untied swept today, but I think it won't happen. Maybe Ace will be motivated to snipe 0:59 if it's still available should he get 1:07.
Frigate: 0:22 is the roadblock for an untied here, as if SA and 00A weren't enough. Ace has had legit 0:22 fails with one hostage escaping, so perhaps he'll get the insanely lucky untied one day. 0:57 would be ridiculous, and 1:04, while not the most demanding untied pace-wise, would take forever to get a completion. The obvious guess would be Pettit untying 00A again and then playing Agent, but seeing that he still has 0:24 and could have gone for an untied sweep much earlier if he wanted to suggests he's not at all interested.
Bunker 2: Before even touching on SA and 00A, 0:22 on Agent would have to be achieved, which is only possible with a jail warp and clutching out a god run. Not going to happen, especially not by the same players who can hold untieds on SA and 00A.
Surface 2: 0:46 is still up for grabs, as well as SA 0:47, but both require some deep levels of degenning to get. Not to menion Boss's double nade completion on 00A is extremely rare to even get started a run with. I could see Boss achieving an untied sweep, and possibly Randy, though my prediction is neither will happen.
Statue: 2:17 across the board is too much Statue for any sane man. Sammy is without a doubt the best player in the world on the level, and with some demonstrations of 2.X skill, perhaps he could manage a heavily boosted run and fluke the FR? Three times? Including Agent? On the positive, I don't think anyone else is capable of 2:17 without a god run on their side, so it could be a very slow untied sweep in the making. Even if Sammy were interested in getting any of them and actually managed to, I don't think 2:17 will happen on Agent. It's just too good of a time.
Archives: What's interesting here is all of the difficulties are waiting for the WR to pop, by either Wodahs, Gus, or Ace, so ruling out an untied sweep would be wrong. Snatching all of them and before anyone else ties one would be a legendary feat. Ace could ruin everyone's dreams with 00A 0:53 since I can't imagine he'll bother to get 0:15. Untied sweep is possible, and not too unrealistic either here at Archives.
Streets: Ogran has tried quite a bit to untie Agent and SA already, but I think 00A 1:54 will get slain before either of those two happen. 00A 1:53 isn't out of the question completely either, but it'd likely be one of the strongest WRs in the game. If Ogran grinds and is fortunate enough, an untied sweep could still happen on Streets, but don't count on it.
Depot: 0:22 isn't happening, so an untied sweep isn't happening.
Train: Marc's untied on Agent isn't going anywhere anytime soon, but unfortunately in terms on untied sweeps, SA and 00A are already tippy top WR times. Marc would have to be off his rocker to get them both. Big maybe.
Jungle: 0:49 on Agent would be sick and isn't completely impossible, as well as 0:53 on 00A, but getting 0:52 on SA would be really something else. I'd imagine 2.X would be used on all three, as well as requiring PAL of course, but I don't think Wodahs is going to get them.
Control: Nobody is touching SA or 00A, unless Marc or Wodahs go for a super duper grind for them, and Ace might be capable of eeking out a 3:55 on Agent. One of the more plausible untied sweeps, but would still require a godly run.
Caverns: Each WR could go down another second, but they're all extremely different in skills used, and what's required. Agent 1:00 would be a huge grind to get the boosts required, SA needs a really great run with the elusive mine throw, and 00A needs a superb run if you don't have the 2.X skills (and even with, you still need some magic). They'll all almost certainly be achieved, but not by the same player and not at the same time. The only realistic possibility in the near future would be Wodahs, but I don't think he'll get Agent and SA untieds.
Cradle: 0:33 has been shown to be possible, but requires extreme luck, skill, and some clutchness too. Maybe it'll happen on Agent, but I don't expect an untied sweep here ever.
Aztec: By far the most complex level, and thus, the most likely level to see a new untied sweep. Given there are unused strats on all difficulties and each of them can be untied by a fair amount means that an untied sweep is absolutely possible here. It'll require an Aztec madman, and I'm going to go out on a limb and say it won't happen, but there are untieds up for grabs still.
Egypt: 0:44 has been shown possible by Ace and others, and given all three difficulties are very similar, an Egypt untied sweep isn't out of the question. Like other levels, it'll require a single player to grind their heart out on Egypt with a bunch of the new tricks, all while not getting sniped out. Perhaps Ace will get it.
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In my personal opinion, I think Goldeneye is finished with untied sweeps, at least in the near future and also assuming no new game-breakers are discovered. What are your thoughts? Vote and discuss!
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foolish to assume no new game breakers
Currently, it's a clear no given lack of current GE playing interest to do so outside of maybe the new aztec strat (which still nobody's WR'd with). History of game speedrunning suggests eventually someone will come around and do it.
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yeah some cooked unit will discover some new strat that will make it easy
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foolish to assume no new game breakers
Currently, it's a clear no given lack of current GE playing interest to do so outside of maybe the new aztec strat (which still nobody's WR'd with). History of game speedrunning suggests eventually someone will come around and do it.
He meant IF no new game breakers are found he thinks no untied sweeps will happen
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nah, but someone will likely achieve 2/3 untieds on a stage (like Rayan currently has on Control), probably on Aztec or Archives.
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Wow, discussing a Silo untied sweep and not listing me as someone who could do it. The shade.
"Cradle 33 has been shown to be possible..." Um... where?
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Here among other things:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H8lhA3uVMsc
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wow fuck that's a really nice idea there Henrik
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Good analysis, mate! I will post my views assuming current knowledge only
Dam - agree, once 52 happens the probability of an untied sweep happening is virtually zero. Karl could 300 though
Fac - I can envision a 0:42 on a perfect run and a good challenge first would be to get a 43 bT (certainly doable and I've failed one). 43s are cake for high OCB players because they can afford a lot of tiny stucks and still manage 43 pace. But the real problem is getting a run without ANY of those tiny stucks and when you come to that nitty gritty the level gets a lot more frustrating than fun. That or 0:51 SA could happen first (most likely 0:51). Untied sweep on this one is touch and go but atm I'm inclined to say it won't happen
Runway - I thought briefly about 0:21 agent. The best you can get is probably 8:0 and with 2.x I think that's still a 22
Surface 1 - Yeah this is pretty much gonna be by Gus or noone since 1:46 SA isn't realistic. It's game over if someone ties that before the other two happen though (I might go for 147s once I get a good cheatstick). Once you have a good run with no backboosts after the 1st hut you have a solid chance at 147 00A already. I don't know much about 1:01 Agent but there could be more incentive to go for it by a good 2.x'er if the Santos boost is investigated more
Bunker 1 - I think 0:16 will happen eventually but not by the same player who gets 20 and 101 or lower. Maybe grav could grind out this untied sweep if he's quick enough. I'm eager to untie 00 Agent and probably will return to SA at some point but I have no desire for 16 agent
Silo - Marc could sweep this one. If he gets 0:59 on Agent he could make a run for 1:07 since that's easier in difficulty imo. Then because 00 Agent is a lot more chill and relaxing compared to A/SA (no lagfest and the level is more about minimizing stucks than having insane pace) there would be incentive for him to go for that one as well. It is entirely possible someone else gets 1:07 first though in which case an untied sweep probably won't happen. Not ruling out 1:06 SA but it's incredibly unlikely
Frigate - I think SA 0:58 killed the chances of an untied sweep by anyone other than Pettit. It is a stupidly insane wr. I've never seen his agent play but everyone knows he is capable of everdriving achieving an untied on ooagent. If I get 22 on Agent then this one is out of the window though but who knows if that will happen
S2 - possibly that Randy/grav/Bez/etc get 46 and 47 on A and SA respectively but the real challenge would be untying 00 agent. Don't see Boss going for 46/47 but who knows.
B2 - 0:23 is maxed
Statue - I don't really follow this level anymore but I know 217s are doable on SA/00A at least. But yeah would be an autistic grind and I don't even see Sammy ever getting the urge to get an untied sweep here. 217 Agent would be killer
Archives - this is actually one of the most doable untied sweeps atm (just need Gus/Wodahs/me or another great 2.x'er to grind this level). With the return of the open door strat I think 0:53 will be a joke with 2.x. 15 seems like a very cuspable untied as well
Depot - 0:23 is maxed
Train - This one will be Marc only. 1:48 ooa seems like the most doable (basically a 123 SA pace run on 00A) but it's possible 1:22 could happen if the far zmg ouro kill strat is popularized. Both of them would be nutty, but definitely doable with a grind. 123 paces aren't rare for marc and myself. I'm not confident about an untied sweep here though, 58/123/150 may have been the last one
Jungle - 0:49 seems similar to times like 42 fac, 59 silo etc in terms of strength. Unlike facility/silo/train though which require better OCB there's not much you can do here to get quicker pace. You'd have to rely on things like more boostage (which aren't really in your control) (and good 2.x control!). 0:53 oo agent is the most likely one to happen here. I can envision a 0:52 SA (imagine my SA run with the mine throw up the ladder and running Xenia).. but yeah that's like an insane fluke by some good player (Marc/Wodahs etc) or an insane grind by someone who has 0:53 already. Can't really see an untied sweep here
Control - I think it's safe to say that only I have a chance at an untied sweep here, but there is a possiblity of SA/00A getting tied or 00A getting beaten (possible but unlikely). It seems like 3:55 is tantamount to 3:57 old strat which all of me, Marc and Clemens spent a collective 200+ hours on and still failed to get. I'm not ruling out 355 and it would be good if the level is understood to a better degree because I know I've had 357s that looked better than my 356 and I doubt I'm the only one who has felt that. The level is certainly fun though and it would be a nice grind eventually but as of now I can't gauge the insanity of 355 unless I seriously grind for it, so I'm not sure about an untied sweep on it atm
Caverns - even though an untied may be possible on all 3 difficulties I highly doubt it will be by the same person since the skillset required is different for reach difficulty, agent in particular is very different to SA/00A.
Cradle - I think 0:33 agent will happen eventually but I don't see anyone going for SA/00A 33
Aztec - I don't think I see the same person untying all 3 difficulties (although that could happen by me, Eise or Wodahs I guess), but untieds on each are certainly up for grabs and agent/ooagent should see new WRs soon. I might play Agent later this week and if I snipe an untied before Wodahs I'll probably play 00 Agent right after. In the event I do untie Agent first, it's very likely someone like Wodahs lowers the WR even further before I get 00 agent. Or someone like wodahs could get both a/00a. a lot of ways this level could go and it will be exciting to see how it does
Egypt - similar to Cradle I think an Agent untied will happen but I'm not sure if I see anyone grinding for SA/00A 44. I MIGHT if I'm bored of playing other levels and have Egypt on my mind but I think i'd be satisfied with just having 44 on agent. It's likely that if 44 agent happens, it will get tied before SA/00A 44 happen
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Awesome post, Ace, thanks for sharing! :v