The Elite Forum
The Big Three Plus One => GoldenEye 007 => Topic started by: RWG on August 10, 2020, 11:08:30 pm
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I just wanted to post this one thought that came into my head, but tbh BOLD PREDICTIONS are always fun/funny, especially to look back on. Maybe this thread will become a recurring one over the years, and in 2026, something will happen where someone's post from 2022 gets quoted like "wow, this person was right! Epic!"
Anyhow, here's my BOLD PREDICTION to get things started:
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Statue 2:17 will first happen on Secret Agent, or even Agent. Players are getting too good, and so pacing 2:17 by players who don't even have 2:18 yet will start to become a non-zero occurrence. On one of these runs, someone with 2:18 00 Agent, will get a 2:17 pace run on SA/Agent and complete the lucky FR. A 2:17 00 Agent will occur not much after that.
There's just too much bad energy surrounding Statue 00A 2:17 at this point, so the dam must break another way.
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EDIT - edited the title to include PD, since why not.
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In 5 years the only WRs not to have initials will be Runway SA, S2 Agent, Depot Agent.
Anything else with close to that many ties will be untied, including Cavs and S1 Agent, Cradle Agent, Statue SA and 00. Statue Agent 2:18 will stand at least that long and remain uncommon. Cradle SA/00 33s will be around 25-40 ties each but will be too shit to grind an untied in this time.
Not sure about Streets Agent but either 1:10 happening or having it hang in there with under 50 ties is more likely than it losing initials.
B1 Agent will surpass B2 Agent in number of ties.
Whiteted will eventually tie Frigate 22, though it's possible he might not be the first to slay it.
All the 5 major RTA categories will be improved by a great deal of competition, at least 3 different players will hold records.
Clemens will revisit Depot and gain leaderboards again after years of neglect.
Also Chris Gonsalves and Joris will knock Boss out of the top 10. Pogopope will also be in the top 10 or tied at some point.
Nothing too shocking perhaps but that's how I see things going down.
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The next Silo 00 UWR will happen on NTSC-J
Streets SA/00 153 will happen with manual 2.x val strafing
Dam 52 will get tied in 2021
Only one more hoard will air in 2020, but two will air Q1 2021
S2 SA 46 happens in 2020 using the Calle strat
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Sammy Rodgers will skip to 2:16 on Statue 00 with a 5 boost run.
Chris G will have more wrs than Ace in GE at the end of 2021.
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Archives SA/00A WRs will be sub 50 after a method is found to speed up the Mishkin speech. The same method will result in big time cuts on Bunker 1 00A.
Caverns 00A will be 1:24 after a method is found to pass the slow door to the radio room before it has fully opened. The same method will result in a two-second cut on Depot 00A.
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B1 15 will be possible using 2.4. Dont know when or how, but it will happen
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Sterling will PR.
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A new discovery on Jungle will cause Xenia to freeze in place, leading to possible untieds or at least tying current WRs much easier.
Aztec 00 1:35 will be tied with an immaculate run using the mainframe strategy and skipping the BA.
NTSC-J cartridges will become extremely rare by 2022, such that they will fetch $200+ on eBay, representing a barrier to entry for new players.
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egypt 43 will happen sooner than you may think.
bunker 1 15 is very likely to happen. not sure when but it will.
archives SA 00 53 are far from maxed.
whiteted's splits from will be instrumental to discovering new starts and will help with many untieds.
once ace sweeps pd, the sweep will last 2 weeks
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Anyhow, here's my BOLD PREDICTION to get things started:
Statue 2:17 will first happen on Secret Agent, or even Agent. Players are getting too good, and so pacing 2:17 by players who don't even have 2:18 yet will start to become a non-zero occurrence. On one of these runs, someone with 2:18 00 Agent, will get a 2:17 pace run on SA/Agent and complete the lucky FR. A 2:17 00 Agent will occur not much after that.
There's just too much bad energy surrounding Statue 00A 2:17 at this point, so the dam must break another way.
This aged well...a day to be precise :cool:
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2022: Ace finished sweeping PD after several CRT and visa related setbacks
2025: Untieds in both games dry up completely. The last untied ever achieved in either game, Escape PA 2:59, is set by Howard Zintman (PD Alias: Mr. HowZ), a player who joined the rankings in 2024.
2027: After 2026 goes by with no new untieds whatsoever, players start dropping like flies, realizing that speedrunning is a degenerate and pointless endeavor. New players also stop joining, finding the community relatively abandoned. The 500 point requirement to view Discord lobby is exponentially harder than it used to be, as even players such as Jimmy Bauer are reduced to sub-1000 point timespages.
2033: Discord declares bankruptcy, and all records of the server are lost.
2061: On April 19th, the last working GE cartridge quits. Huzi reflects this in the forum header's "This Day in Elite History" in subsequent years. It is the first major event to happen in either game in over 30 years.
2064: Goose, in his 70s at this point, makes an Amazon Prime documentary (Youtube having fallen out of favor in the 2050s) about the death of old Nintendo 64 hardware, and makes a GoFundMe (which is oddly still around at this point) to mass reproduce the consoles, controllers, and games using Nintendo's specifications. The project receives $10 million CAD, now one week's wages due to inflation.
2065: Nintendo CEO Leo Perna sends Goose a Cease and Desist regarding his "2064" project. Many elderlies hope this is a sign Nintendo is finally about to release a N64 Classic, but this is not the case. It is still impossible to play Goldeneye or Perfect Dark (emulators made illegal in 2032).
2075: YourEliteness's grandson inadvertently disconnects the server for The-Elite.net, wiping the rankings from the internet. Nobody would notice this fact for another 4 years.
2077: By sheer coincidence, Jimbo and Clemens end up in the same nursing home in Neo-Milwaukee. They reminisce about the good old days, and play pretend Multi in their heads. Jimbo wins with an insane snipe across the big room on Bunker.
2126: The last known living Eliter dies, surrounded by friends and family at the age of 112. No mention of his playing days is made in his obituary.
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https://youtu.be/lu5Gsqe5ZUg
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Bunker 2 A 22 will happen.
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Ace's absurd dominance in PD becomes cemented & accepted as eternal fact, making 2nd place the new honorary champion in the hearts of many players. In mid to late 2021, we will see the most feverish battle over any position on the rankings in history, and it will be for a non-champion ladder position (2nd). At some point there will be a 4 way tie for second.
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August 2020: Ace retires from PD after achieving Investigation Special Agent 1:54. Nobody believes him ("the turncoat who cried retirement"), but it becomes clear to everyone that this is truly the case when 2 months pass by without an Ace PR or Ace stream. Some suspect him of hoarding the remaining WRs in a project entitled "63/63". This does not happen, and over the course of a year, Ace loses some of his World Records, and hovers around 40/60 in PD WR count.
August 2020: In a stroke of insane luck, Sammy Rodgers achieves Statue Secret Agent 2:17 with 0 fails.
September 2020: Boss achieves his first PR in either game after nearly 2 years. He achieves Chicago Special Agent 0:25, Extraction Agent 0:48, Infiltration Agent 1:10, among other records later this year.
September 2020: whiteted slays Frigate Agent 0:22.
October 2020: thegamergirl93 gets her first ever World Record, Surface 1 Agent 1:02.
October 2020: After finally achieving the 100% WR of 58:36, Clemens grinds for Streets Agent 1:11 and gets it after 4 days.
October 2020: rhakiath becomes the next Eliter outside of the top 100 to achieve an UWR, Depot Secret Agent 0:38.
November 2020: mw achieves Defection Special Agent 0:16 with his new ECM mine warp trick.
November 2020: Calle achieves Surface 1 Agent 1:01, joining the club of legends who have had an Untied Sweep in GoldenEye. Extraction 0:48 then becomes the only record across both games to have been set in the 2000s, and a $200 bounty is offered for 0:47. It is not achieved in 2020.
November 2020: The first LTK League set for Winter 2020 is delayed by 12 months due to Pauli being busy with grad school.
December 2020: joey unties Dam Secret Agent 1:15 with the WAT (Window Alarm Trick) after 2 116s.
December 2020: The Longest Standing Untied in GoldenEye, Frigate Secret Agent 0:58, is slayed by FrostHops.
January 2021: Will Xelever receives a PAL system from an anonymous "Mate 64". He spends the entire month going for an untied sweep on Deep Sea, which he successfully achieves, with 224/252/259.
February 2021: The 1:26:00 barrier is broken in PD, from new untieds revealed in an unhoard, Xela's untied sweep on Deep Sea, and better Escape times from Kev B.
February 2021: Wally slays Runway 00 Agent 0:28 and unties Surface 2 00 Agent 1:20 in the aforementioned hoard.
March 2021: Luke's right hand thumb makes a full recovery and he achieves Bunker 2 00 Agent 0:54 with relative ease. He also gets Surface 2 Agent 0:46 shortly after, passing Ace on the rankings to 2nd place.
March 2021: Dusky wins GE One Try Cup for the second year in a row. Yendis is runner-up.
April 2021: Lake Demon passes Karl Jobst to achieve 2nd place on the PD point rankings.
May 2021: Glover achieves Chicago Agent 0:14.
May 2021: Runway Agent 0:21 is slayed by BU7. Controversy erupts in the wider speedrun community when The Elite Council decides to not accept this time on the rankings.
June 2021: A ground-breaking new PD strategy is discovered on Rescue or Escape that cuts 20+ seconds from the total time.
July 2021: MOAM II takes place. Several Eliters make their first appearance, including but not limited to: Xela, mw, Piss Pounder, Yendis, Spagooda, and Pauliwood.
September 2021: Caverns Agent 1:00 is achieved on a 7:0 run.
December 2021: Sub 1:30 happens on Aztec 00 Agent with the crouch strat.
February 2022: Sub 1 is achieved on Bunker 1 00 Agent with whiteted's TAS 0:52 strat.
November 2022: YE solves the mysterious Swiss Train OoB from 2014 during his GE Decompression Project, but unfortunately, it does not prove to be useful for ILs.
Distant Future:
2023: Chuya makes a comeback, but only to come clean stating his Attack Ship Agent 2:06 was indeed spliced.
2023: The Dam SA tutorial is finally released (premiered), 7 years later.
2023: In the year Perfect Dark takes place, whiteted reveals a top-secret, game-breaking "P" strategy which, when revealed, kills the joy in going for records. The Elite Council unanimously agrees to ban the strategy.
2024: The Great 2024 Solar Eclipse Elite Meet happens in Chicago, with Sammy Rodgers, ragequit, T+, and a few other Eliters. They have a good time, and Sammy casually dupes a Statue Secret Agent 2:17.
2024: Sampap 2 is released.
2026: The 1:10:00 barrier is broken in GoldenEye.
2028: The HPMTS (Healthy Paper Mario Tracking Sheet) is complete when all Eliters complete playthroughs of PM64 & TTYD.
2029: The first GoldenEye "PB" is livestreamed & achieved in space by some non-Eliter, millionaire YouTuber.
2035: The first WR is achieved on Mars, a Defection Agent 0:05 dupe by BK. A selfie of him, with a smile & a thumbs-up, and the TV on Martian soil showing the record, goes viral.
2038: Activity across both game starts to die down, and an Elite Hall of Fame website is made to commemorate player achievements, document meets, and so on.
2042: Ace is down to 3 untieds across both games, which last for eternity.
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2020: Bond contracts Covid from a sneezing guard
2021: Reliable way to go out of bounds is discovered
2022: New full game UWR with controversial strategy which requires 0.5 control style (1 controller, 2 consoles)
2023: Reliable way to get back in bounds is discovered
2026: Contact with extraterrestrial intelligence is officially confirmed
2027: Time travel is invented
1739: Time traveller achieves the first GE time: Dam Agent 54
1996: Rare decide to remake the Game from the 1739 video, but decide to fix the easy-to-avoid strafing bug by simply normalizing the movement input values (the game is called "The Bond-age" and features softcore scenes)
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September 2020: whiteted slays Frigate Agent 0:22.
Whiteted will eventually tie Frigate 22, though it's possible he might not be the first to slay it.
Wow more insane prophecies coming true? No one predicted the run to have a backboost though.
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Yeah, as much as most of us thought it was a meme, I don't think the 0:22 slay was really a bold prediction, since the strategy had been shown to work. Bold would have been to predict it having A up and a backboost honestly, because that 2.3 movement at the start was one of the finest TED's ever had.
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<A> up is secretly what I was hoping for as it's such a succient demo of the potential of the strat, but yeah there's no way I would have predded the back - I even forgot about it like 10s later :)
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succient
what did he mean by this :thinking:
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September 2020: whiteted slays Frigate Agent 0:22.
Whiteted will eventually tie Frigate 22, though it's possible he might not be the first to slay it.
Wow more insane prophecies coming true? No one predicted the run to have a backboost though.
These predictions DIDN'T come true though, as 22 was actually slayed already by Joey D.
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succient
what did he mean by this :thinking:
Could be an amalgam of the following:
Succinct
Succulent
Sufficient
Successful
Efficient
Scientific
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September 2020: whiteted slays Frigate Agent 0:22.
Whiteted will eventually tie Frigate 22, though it's possible he might not be the first to slay it.
Wow more insane prophecies coming true? No one predicted the run to have a backboost though.
These predictions DIDN'T come true though, as 22 was actually slayed already by Joey D.
lmao yeah just like berube slayed 53 and i slayed 52
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succient
what did he mean by this :thinking:
Could be an amalgam of the following:
Succinct
Succulent
Sufficient
Successful
Efficient
Scientific
All of the above :pimp: or maybe just the first one
These predictions DIDN'T come true though, as 22 was actually slayed already by Joey D.
Lemme just get my favourite line from the proof policy.
For "first to achieve" conflicts, the first to provide proof is ranked as the first to achieve the time.
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September 2020: whiteted slays Frigate Agent 0:22.
Whiteted will eventually tie Frigate 22, though it's possible he might not be the first to slay it.
Wow more insane prophecies coming true? No one predicted the run to have a backboost though.
These predictions DIDN'T come true though, as 22 was actually slayed already by Joey D.
Actually this makes rhakiath's pred extremely accurate. His pred is saying whiteted will tie 22, though he may not be the first to. Which perfectly came true. Proof aside, it's true that whiteted may have not been the first to slay it. Grats rhakiath killer pred mate.
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All of Boss' predictions (https://forums.the-elite.net/index.php?topic=23675.msg466544#msg466544) will eventually be matched or bettered.
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Jackstar will first get Dam 53 on Secret Agent, or even 00 Agent.
Jackstar is just getting too complacent, not paying enough attention during runs, and almost enjoying endlessly playing Dam Agent for 54+. I think on one run, he will inadvertently pick the wrong difficulty, and fluke Dam 53, with only 1-2 boosts. This will give him the confidence and focus needed to actually get a Dam 53 Agent for real, not much later.
There's just too much bad energy surrounding Jackstar's Dam Agent 53 at this point, so the dam must break another way.
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*the statue must break another way
I'm not sure the same trick will work twice but cmon jack we believe!