The Elite Forum
The Big Three Plus One => GoldenEye 007 => Topic started by: BDown on November 18, 2020, 05:23:04 pm
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I asked this question around the community and while back and ended up putting together this spreadsheet as a result. I thought I posted it on the forums before but I couldn't find it via search so here's a new thread. Anyway, it's been quite a few months now so I think it's in need of an update!
Before you dive in and tear everything apart I want to put some of the terms and ideas used into context. Overall this sheet takes into account all known strategies as long as they are doable by a human being. For example, getting a double depot warp on a frame perfect run with maximum lookdown to get 22 I would not consider humanly possible. However hitting a crazy "trick" like the rocket shot to get Depot 00 43 I would say IS. Of course this is all subjective, so the way I try to think about it is "Could this strategy be executed by a human given nearly infinite time?" or "Could a human do this if they played 10,000 hours?"
Obviously we can't predict future strats (that's why I want to update it!) but given all known strats, what is the best time possible? This takes us to the "Theorized" table on the right.
All of the times on that table are color coded into one of four categories.
- Maxed: Self explanatory; barring some new strategy discovery, better is not possible
- Reasonable: These times are pretty much known possible (i.e. someone has failed/paced it, or a known strat exists but unused like s2 00 nade throw).
- Possible: A human could probably pace this with known strats but would require ridiculous amounts of luck/time. Perhaps an unused strat exists but has only been done with a practice ROM or something.
- Theoretical: Strats exist which may be doable but no human has ever pulled them off (yet) or the amount of luck needed is theoretically possible but never been seen in game (BA skip on Aztec 00 or Statue Agent 216, for example).
This possibly oversimplifies the categories but here's another way to think about the times (I totally didn't just pull these out of my ass...):
- Reasonable: 500 hour grind
- Possible: 2,000 hour grind
- Theoretical: 10,000 hour grind
Lastly, everyone will have different opinions about a lot of these times, and I don't think everyone will ever agree on every time in this spreadsheet. The idea is more to try to get more of a general consensus around just how much further the game can go.
The Spreadsheet:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Q58hoUGFk7ASLscZebzSFVnOlMWVvbTuI1MXxfyTDt4/edit#gid=0 (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Q58hoUGFk7ASLscZebzSFVnOlMWVvbTuI1MXxfyTDt4/edit#gid=0)
Side note: the bold+italicized times were ones which myself nor anyone I originally spoke to was super confident on. I'm sure there are plenty of other incorrect times but those may be particularly off.
Here are a couple questions to start off the vitriolic healthy discussion:
- Are Archives SA/00 52 possible?
- Dam 00 1:52? Now that 1:54 has happened is 1:52 still maxed with a perfect run? Lower?
- Control: Yendis mentioned a strat which hasn't been used yet, so could each be lowered 1 second?
- How much time would the rocket shot save on Depot 00, is 43 possible?
- Give all the new strategy discoveries and developments on Surface 2 00, how low could it go? I think I remembered hearing Illu say 1:14 would be a really good run with the nade throw camera so I just kind of pulled 1:13 out of that with little evidence.
EDIT: I made some significant changes to the overall time, lots of new stuff in bold italics now, but somehow the total time is 1:08:59 :rollin:
The biggest wild cards for that are probably Frigate, since Ted seems to be cooking up some stuff with an unknown amount of potential time save, and Aztec, where we basically just lowered each difficulty to the one below (or down a strat essentially) and threw in some extra time saves on top of that...
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I would say b1 00 58 is now possible with the glass strat. maybe 57 but that feels like a stretch.
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I'd say in regards to Depot, 38 SA is probably the human max but it should be possible to get 37 on a TAS like run with extremely optimal lag and 5-6 boosts. I have had a couple fluky runs with very optimal strafing and only 2 boosts that have been close to 38 but even that isn't confirmed viable without a minimum of 3. I've had a number of 5 boost runs but they tend to get diminishing returns above 4 boosts; 4 is probably the sweet spot to get optimal boosts and guard patterns and you could only extrapolate from there. There's also the warp which I don't believe will ever be viable, and wouldn't save nearly as much time as the TAS indicates.
As an example I once mashed up a "sum of best splits" from early in the year when I took my best 4 or 5 segments from various runs, (including mixing JP and English and using different capture settings entirely) and spliced them together to get an idea what the max could be; it came in about 38.00 real time with 5 boosts and I've improved a couple of the segments slightly since then. So I think with something like having infinite save states to rerecord each segment and being played by a human on console, 37 pace could materialize under those conditions. However with that said I believe a completed 38 is the proper human max.** Putting the run together legitimately and doing it in the lab are vastly different.
With regards to 00, for one thing 44 without rocket shot is 100% possible although it would be unbelievably clutch and lucky. It would probably require 5-6 boosts and very good execution but the boosts on 00 are a little easier to compile. There's the rare boost at the first gate that happens only on 00 for one thing, which in a theoretical run like this is always going to be assumed and it saves a good amount. The boosts out of the dump and into the train tend to save minimal time but there's certainly enough places apart from those that you can catch clean ones. Since you can pass away on 00 you can't benefit from more than 6 boosts off the top of my head, you want a boost off the drone to get the best MF rooms but it does deal more damage than guard boosts. Getting 4:0 is fairly common on 00.
Rocket shot saves a fair bit of time in some sneaky ways. Not only does it save about half a second in the dump itself over my 46 and about a second over the WR's dump, it also gives you a way better and easier alley going both directions since you no longer need the D5K. You can use optimal lookdown and lines instead of going for kills which adds up; I'd say there's a good second of time save overall and the lag in the hut is also a lot better compared to the typical dump strat. This at the expense of hitting the shot and facing a ~1 in 20 lottery for it to complete.
It's also never been seriously played for; it isn't necessarily as hard as people make out but it is dismissed by people. The odds aren't great but honestly the WR is a lot more likely to be untied by a sloppy rocket shot run than one like my 46 or Gus's 45 played better with more boosts. Rocket shot gives you a big cushion if you have a few boosts so you would be able to get 44 with mistakes, probably even taking 2 shots at the rocket. I think 43 is too much of a lottery to be clutchable, but it'd definitely be possible in theory. 42 would be strictly TAS only since it would require the warp which wouldn't save much on console.
So I'd probably agree with 38/43 being maxed, but 43 would be absolutely the strongest record in the history of the game if no new knowledge were found due to the luck involved. Even 44 would be like a tier 1.5; it is 100% doable but to improve further from it would require insane luck and likely years of grinding.
**Unless some other new strat would be found.
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Bunker 1 Agent 0:15 is theoretical
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Bunker 1 Agent 0:15 is theoretical
explain
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While I've never played Egypt literally ever, I'm inclined to believe 42s are possible. I think Karl even said as much at one point. Also it seems odd that Frig 21 is only "theoretical", as opposed to possible or even reasonable. Finally, I'm a bit hesitant to believe that Control 3:55 is maxed beyond a shadow of a doubt.
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Bunker 1 Agent 0:15 is theoretical
explain
boosts go brr
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Are you positive Karl didn't say 43s were possible on Egypt? 42 seems well out of reach.
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A lot of the theoretical limits are very subjective but I feel like you've been a lot more generous on some than others. Perhaps it's worth omitting some times which *could* happen but practically *wont* i.e. Runway SA 21
- Dam 00A 152 - seems bonkers to me. If this is setting the standard for theoretical then lots more needs to come in later ;)
- Runway SA 21 - as for Dam 00A but I know more about this one. There were only a few bigger believers in A 21 than me, and SA 21 is another ball park. I think it's unlikely to ever happen unless JL goes Hard.
- S1 - no love for the OOK :( :( :nesquik:
- Frigate A 20 - So you only need to save like 0.9s to the hostage kill against my 22. My 22 waits a short ice age for the reload to finish and you could completely strafe the corridor, ignoring the guard there. The pace from Bond's point of view is then not too hard, you just need to strafe & warp the middle, and not get backed (which is what the 21 will look like). More likely than Runway SA 21 IMO, but it's still quite possible it'll never happen I think.
- Frigate 00A I've got designs on, so I'll post again when I know more :)
- SA 00A I'd ask Illu
- B2 00A 50 - I know the B2 00A TAS is very low, but 50 from the recent 53 seems pretty crazy to me - am I missing something about the level?
- Control 3:55 is a fucked time but like mw I see Ace hasn't retired yet :) . Also the note I've made in my head is that Ace didn't actually benefit all that much from the Nat angling in that run so I'm pretty sure the decimal can be lowered at least.
Edit: Oh and B1 00A is a funny one. I don't think it'll go any lower than 59 but herppa is right, 58 or even 57 ***could*** be done.
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Are you positive Karl didn't say 43s were possible on Egypt? 42 seems well out of reach.
I could be wrong but I remember him saying a while ago that he wanted to try for 42 with the tile warp. He might have been joking or I could be remembering wrong. I don't remember how much tile warp supposedly saves but its definitely a feasible strategy. Also, I don't think you need the absolute single best 1st and 3rd deaths for 44 anyway.
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Control SA and 00 4:00 should be possible or even reasonable, not theoretical. Take Ace's SA 4:01, add 2 forward boosts at the crates, which is fairly common, a better Nat angle (Nat's angle on the 4:01 is pretty average), and it should be 4:00 with frames to spare.
It would be an absolute insane time (4:00 is worth 39 points on Agent), but I don't see it being any more insane than some of the other "possible" times on that list.
The real question is if 3:59 is theoretically possible on SA and 00. I think it might be with the absolute ideal Nat angle, an extra boost or two on top of the two crate boosts (there's a rare boost you can get in the generator room), and a TNS leave.
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Yeah sounds like either a joke or you are remembering wrong. Tile warp would make 43 possible, not 42
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A lot of the theoretical limits are very subjective but I feel like you've been a lot more generous on some than others. Perhaps it's worth omitting some times which *could* happen but practically *wont* i.e. Runway SA 21
- Dam 00A 152 - seems bonkers to me. If this is setting the standard for theoretical then lots more needs to come in later ;)
- Runway SA 21 - as for Dam 00A but I know more about this one. There were only a few bigger believers in A 21 than me, and SA 21 is another ball park. I think it's unlikely to ever happen unless JL goes Hard.
- S1 - no love for the OOK :( :( :nesquik:
- Frigate A 20 - So you only need to save like 0.9s to the hostage kill against my 22. My 22 waits a short ice age for the reload to finish and you could completely strafe the corridor, ignoring the guard there. The pace from Bond's point of view is then not too hard, you just need to strafe & warp the middle, and not get backed (which is what the 21 will look like). More likely than Runway SA 21 IMO, but it's still quite possible it'll never happen I think.
- Frigate 00A I've got designs on, so I'll post again when I know more :)
- SA 00A I'd ask Illu
- B2 00A 50 - I know the B2 00A TAS is very low, but 50 from the recent 53 seems pretty crazy to me - am I missing something about the level?
- Control 3:55 is a fucked time but like mw I see Ace hasn't retired yet :) . Also the note I've made in my head is that Ace didn't actually benefit all that much from the Nat angling in that run so I'm pretty sure the decimal can be lowered at least.
Edit: Oh and B1 00A is a funny one. I don't think it'll go any lower than 59 but herppa is right, 58 or even 57 ***could*** be done.
I think originally berg is the one who convinced me SA 21 was possible. I assume the slight turns you need to take for the nade throw would make it too tight to be reasonable?
I'm really keen to see what you can cook up on Frigate, we kind of just pulled some times out of thin air but I don't know how much time save is really out there if you aren't using current strats and find ways to use 2.3 and/or skip a pause.
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Control SA and 00 4:00 should be possible or even reasonable, not theoretical. Take Ace's SA 4:01, add 2 forward boosts at the crates, which is fairly common, a better Nat angle (Nat's angle on the 4:01 is pretty average), and it should be 4:00 with frames to spare.
It would be an absolute insane time (4:00 is worth 39 points on Agent), but I don't see it being any more insane than some of the other "possible" times on that list.
The real question is if 3:59 is theoretically possible on SA and 00. I think it might be with the absolute ideal Nat angle, an extra boost or two on top of the two crate boosts (there's a rare boost you can get in the generator room), and a TNS leave.
wow 3:59 sounds truly fucked, especially without a new optimization. I moved 400s into the "Possible" category (remember, all these terms are relative here). In Discord Yendis mentioned whiteted's gun backup strat, do you know how much time that could save?
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This is 0:38 with the EMFRCT (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tSwxkEqXoG8). Uncertain if 0:37 is doable.. I suppose.
Silo 1:19 is very possible. You can see that on my 1:21.
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I have always "seen" Silo 00A 1:18 as being possible, close to the max. Ace's 1:21 was the 2-second cycle ahead of my 1:21, with a very choked ending. Unchoke the ending, and it's 1:19. But it's always possible to go "beyond" just a "very good" ending to get a "God" ending. My Silo A 1:03 was an early example of this, and there are other examples; many of Marc's runs are such. This would give 1:18. It may be possible to even get a cycle ahead of Ace's run, thus 1:16 may be doable, and this isn't even considering the "skipping a pause" technique, which could end up working someday. So I think 1:14 or even 1:13 might be doable; but 1:18 is definitely, absolutely, 100% doable.
Aztec 00A can go as low as Secret Agent tbh, even 1:30 is a "conservative" estimate for a near-heat-death Aztec 00A WR.
Oh nm, I didn't see the third column of records at first, so I'll just hit reply and get back to this later.
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I asked Marc if Dam 00A 1:53 was possible during a stream, and he said it will be pretty easily doable if someone good puts in enough time.
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https://www.twitch.tv/videos/152092732
This run shows even 1:52 being possible.
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(https://i.imgur.com/Jw4ijqs.png)
Might be useful.
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Runway SA 21 should be possible with only 1 guardboost. Doesn't make it much more likely though:P
Battery throw and unoptimal droneboost makes it like, a frame perfect time.
You'll (almost) always die on a 8:0 run.
You need a very improbable, perfectly timed guard boost/boosts on the god run.
Probably a lifelong grind, but i think it's theoretically possible
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POST 1: The S1 agent TAS is :59, yet a 1:00 isn't even theoretically possible? I guess that's a high 59 and the lag removal of TAS costs console another second+? I thought if there was a WR I could get, it'd be the S1 agent 1:02 eventually. I should have known better :huh:
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POST 2: The most surprising thing to me is that another 5 sec can be saved in bunker 2 SA, Ace's record is so unbelievable that no one else can even come within a second. I thought this was among the best records in the game, but it's ~12% slower than the theoretical max, the biggest gap between the current record and the max of any level.
Actually, I still think it's among the best records in the game. Just think about the implications of that, given the fact that it's the furthest away from the theoretical max.
It's not even like Gibbs' runway 00, in that there's some rare strat that no one can successfully pull off with any consistency. It's not like a 5 minute long run where 2 seconds is less than 1% faster either. It's not like there's a ton of luck involved like frigate or even facility. Think about how impressive it is for records to go untied for years. Bunker 2 SA is over a year old and it's untied by TWO seconds, in a 42 sec level.... The only other record in the game where the untied is more than a sec ahead is runway 00 and we know why that's the case.
Given the distance between top players + the distance between theoretically possible and current records, does this mean that Bunker 2 is the highest skill ceiling level in the game? Even the highly luck-dependent frigate is closer to theoretical max. Aztec seems to be a close 2nd as the most-skill-required level (using this metric), but there's so much more luck involved with aztec too.
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POST 3: I'm really confused about the fact that Dam SA 1:16 "CURRENT" is listed as "maxed" but then on the "PATH TO 1:09" the dam SA time of 1:15 is listed, ouch. I thought the consensus was that we'll see 1:09 but this fact is NOT very encouraging....
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It's not even like Gibbs' runway 00, in that there's some rare strat that no one can successfully pull off with any consistency. It's not like a 5 minute long run where 2 seconds is less than 1% faster either. It's not like there's a ton of luck involved like frigate or even facility.
Wally has 8 (eight!!!) <B> completes with no <C> on Runway 00
https://www.twitch.tv/cal_brabham/clip/OutstandingPricklyWaterTwitchRaid
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the only reason why no one other than ace has lower than 44 is because the strat sucks and no top player is interested. its probably one of the weaker untieds as it has massive potential for improvement.
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It's not even like Gibbs' runway 00, in that there's some rare strat that no one can successfully pull off with any consistency. It's not like a 5 minute long run where 2 seconds is less than 1% faster either. It's not like there's a ton of luck involved like frigate or even facility.
Wally has 8 (eight!!!) <B> completes with no <C> on Runway 00
https://www.twitch.tv/cal_brabham/clip/OutstandingPricklyWaterTwitchRaid
That is SO brutal........ Did he get any 26's or 27's?
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It's not even like Gibbs' runway 00, in that there's some rare strat that no one can successfully pull off with any consistency. It's not like a 5 minute long run where 2 seconds is less than 1% faster either. It's not like there's a ton of luck involved like frigate or even facility.
Wally has 8 (eight!!!) <B> completes with no <C> on Runway 00
https://www.twitch.tv/cal_brabham/clip/OutstandingPricklyWaterTwitchRaid
That is SO brutal........ Did he get any 26's or 27's?
Pace wise I think 28 is reasonably tough, need to cook the hut pretty well. Don't think he's failed any legit 27s.
Hell, I'd be impressed with any completion below 32 - remember that Grav worked it down 1 second at a time and no one has filled the 4 second gap between 32 and 28 since
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POST 3: I'm really confused about the fact that Dam SA 1:16 "CURRENT" is listed as "maxed" but then on the "PATH TO 1:09" the dam SA time of 1:15 is listed, ouch.
Whoops that was a formatting error on my part, my bad. Thanks for pointing it out!
POST 2: The most surprising thing to me is that another 5 sec can be saved in bunker 2 SA, Ace's record is so unbelievable that no one else can even come within a second. I thought this was among the best records in the game, but it's ~12% slower than the theoretical max, the biggest gap between the current record and the max of any level.
Actually, I still think it's among the best records in the game. Just think about the implications of that, given the fact that it's the furthest away from the theoretical max.
I forget exactly how we arrived at the 37 second number, but I know that during his grind Ace had a 39 fail, so that's definitely possible.
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POST 3: I'm really confused about the fact that Dam SA 1:16 "CURRENT" is listed as "maxed" but then on the "PATH TO 1:09" the dam SA time of 1:15 is listed, ouch.
Whoops that was a formatting error on my part, my bad. Thanks for pointing it out!
POST 2: The most surprising thing to me is that another 5 sec can be saved in bunker 2 SA, Ace's record is so unbelievable that no one else can even come within a second. I thought this was among the best records in the game, but it's ~12% slower than the theoretical max, the biggest gap between the current record and the max of any level.
Actually, I still think it's among the best records in the game. Just think about the implications of that, given the fact that it's the furthest away from the theoretical max.
I forget exactly how we arrived at the 37 second number, but I know that during his grind Ace had a 39 fail, so that's definitely possible.
I saw Ace posted a failed :39 in this very thread after my post and felt like a REAL dumbass for thinking :42 was that hot. I'm certain he's going to get a 5 sec untied within a year of coming back if no one challenges him. Ludovic Begon might be the one to stop him?
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My recent run of strategising is at an end now so here's my thoughts:
Facility OGDDL can save 3 seconds but the slightly watered down version is 2.5 . Realistically a run will be bad trev, and with the added RNG I don't think it opens up sub 50. Getting the right lag in a real run might still kill the strat altogether, but it's another possibility for 50s.
2.3 on Frigate SA/00A was always looking shaky and I think the bug lean strats show much more promise. On SA it's the same route you just skip the throw in favour of the lean later, and any quickpauses by the engine room door can benefit 3 full pauses rather than 2. I haven't looked into it too much on SA but I think it could save 2s if done well. You free all the hostages ~7s earlier so theoretical times really are just how fast Bond can go. So I'd say 55/56 for theoretical.
00A continues to be frustrating so essentially the only way to effectively include the lean is to play the TAS strat (1.2) complete with grenade throw. The route is the same as SA so Bond could pace 57 but the strat adds a fair amount of RNG to even freeing the engine room hostage, so demanding a lot of him is just going to be impractical. I'd say 59 for theoretical, just because it's below the minute boundary :rollin:
In the 1:09:59 path..
SA 58 still seems ridic to me so I'd definitely bump Frig SA up to 57. 00A I can't see going below 103 with the current strat and B1 noone has been interested in playing glass strat so far :kappa: so I'd probably bump that to 100. That's puts us on 1:10:01 so if I had to look for those 2s I'd say Jungle 00A 51 and Caverns SA 110 with A from above. I've not looked at it again but a misunderstanding at the time made me think the TAS A-from-above where you just run by was a lot more impractical.
Though tbh there are a good number of strats which individually you wouldn't want to put on the route to sub 1:10 (i.e. frig 00a TAS strat) but collectively one of them is bound to crop up on the journey. Urgh I almost sound like a statistician :-X
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The extra 2s can come from Train SA (1:21) and Silo 00A (1:19 (a time that should've happened in 2014 so it's strange to not see it on the list..)). Maybe Control 00A (4:01). The Aztec SA/00A times could be lower too.
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SA 58 still seems ridic to me so I'd definitely bump Frig SA up to 57.
Pettit's thoughts on max time for SA:
(https://i.imgur.com/r8kjyI7.png)