The Elite Forum
The Big Three Plus One => GoldenEye 007 => Topic started by: Blue Khakis on January 12, 2021, 12:07:36 pm
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Currently it is spoken of only in whispers, but I would like to get some kind of gauge on what proportion of people actually believe in sub-1:10. I don't know if there is a consensus and if so, in which direction. I feel as though I have seen respected Eliters on both sides of the fence. For my part, I can see both sides' points of view.
On the positive side, we are currently at 1:10:46, almost a quarter of the way there already, and the community has a pretty formidable record from the previous decade:
2011: 14 seconds
2012: 15 seconds
2013: 11 seconds
2014: 20 seconds
2015: 15 seconds
2016: 10 seconds
2017: 13 seconds
2018: 16 seconds
2019: 19 seconds
2020: 14 seconds
Even if we only managed to achieve the lowest total of the last ten years (10 seconds) each year from now on, we would break the 1:10 barrier by mid-2025.
Also worth noting is how long the previous minute barriers have taken to fall in the last decade or so:
1:13:59 to 1:12:59 - from 26/04/2008 to 09/11/2011 (3 years, 6 months, 14 days/1292 days)
1:12:59 to 1:11:29 - from 09/11/2011 to 23/11/2015 (4 years, 14 days/1475 days)
1:11:59 to 1:10:59 - from 23/11/2015 to 27/01/2020 (4 years, 2 months, 4 days/1526 days)
Again, on this basis, it doesn't seem unreasonable to predict that we might hit 1:09 in a bit over four years' time, sometime in early/mid 2025.
Furthermore, as time goes on, it seems inevitable that we will gain further insights into the game. As technology improves, Eliters like Ted and Henrik will keep on breaking the game apart and finding more ways to save time. I mean, for God's sake, look at this shit:
(https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/522174894109229066/795857788106440714/figure_9.gif)
On the other hand, BDown's thread (https://forums.the-elite.net/index.php?topic=23862.msg468998#msg468998) and spreadsheet (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Q58hoUGFk7ASLscZebzSFVnOlMWVvbTuI1MXxfyTDt4/edit#gid=0) about potential max times was quite sobering in terms of just how fucked some times will need to be in order to breach 1:10. On the spreadsheet, in the "1:09:59 Path" section, (in addition to the more realistic time saves like Statue A 2:17 and Silo 00 1:20) he lists the following times as being part of a potential path to victory:
S1 SA 1:45
S1 00 1:46
B1 SA 0:19
Frigate SA 00:56
B2 00 0:51
Cavs 00 1:27
Aztec A 1:20
Egypt A 0:43
Any one of these times, if achieved, would be colossal, but needing all of them (or at least some similarly aneurysmal times) does make 1:09 feel heavily daunting. Even with technological progress we might make, at this stage it's starting to feel similar to the fact that maybe if we build a new particle accelerator, we'll make the breakthroughs we need to understand dark matter, but similarly maybe we won't and there is simply a ceiling to what mankind can achieve. What does everybody think?
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2021 will be a year of very few Goldeneye untieds.
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I've paced 1:45 on SA and 1:46 on 00 quite a few times, so those will happen. Just gotta find time to grind them out. Frigate SA benefits a lot from 2.3 and a no-switch pipe warp. I'm very confident in 1:09.
My current 1:46 lost over a second to a backboost and two wasted GL shots, so there's a lot of time to save. 00 is technically easier to grind, but a bit more tedious.
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This is like the 5th time I've seen discussion about a minute barrier being the "last one". And if you counted up every thinkable and unthinkable time it always seemed impossible, yet every time it was wrong. I see no indication that this time would be any different, the untied pace hasn't slowed down at all, and there's still many available. There will be new strats as well, which always helps. The spreadsheet doesn't even have 1:21 Train SA which I (almost) failed last week.
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I do believe it will happen in '24-'25, but it's going to take some serious black magic on the part of the TASers. I'm going on the assumption that a few big time saves will be found that will knock multiple seconds off times which are otherwise about maxed. Without a few big discoveries, it's hard to see 2/3 of the game get untied just from sheer grinding.
The question is whether players will continue to try and push hard for untieds, or for point ranks. The trend of level specialists putting in insane hours to try and grab an untied before they get too impossible is going to continue as long as they're out there, and the motivation and numbers of these types of players will determine how far we get. Going for untieds is going to become more prohibitive in terms of time required than ever before. As a result the competitive meta will evolve, top ranked players may hold fewer WRs than in previous eras as they become harder to match. Top players will still be in place to pounce on any "Gold Rush" discovery and get the glory for themselves, but a large portion of this work will be painstakingly grinding out 1s cuts from thin air.
I don't think the game will have an outright heat death in terms of competition overall for a while, but untieds will become scarcer and more prestigious until we really hit a wall. I don't think the double digit time cuts will persist for more than a year or two unless we have major strats discovered, and we'll settle in to something like 2-5 untieds a year as we get past the 1:10 barrier. Then unless we have more insane discoveries, I doubt we'll go below 1:09:40 or so and I suspect 2030 will see the game finally all but die.
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I wonder what the fastest fails on Frigate SA and 00 are, any of the top frigate players know?
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This is like the 5th time I've seen discussion about a minute barrier being the "last one". And if you counted up every thinkable and unthinkable time it always seemed impossible, yet every time it was wrong. I see no indication that this time would be any different, the untied pace hasn't slowed down at all, and there's still many available. There will be new strats as well, which always helps. The spreadsheet doesn't even have 1:21 Train SA which I (almost) failed last week.
Between now and 0:01 for all 60 levels, there's a stopping point somewhere, and I think we're closing in on it. I think 1:09:XX could be reached though, but it's going to take a few years.
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100% it happens before December 31, 2024. I would be willing to bet A LOT on it.
We have been trending between 10-16 UWRs for the past DECADE. That isn't a trend that just lets up. At that pace, we come close to breaking 1:10:00 in 2023, and almost certainly do so in 2024.
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This is like the 5th time I've seen discussion about a minute barrier being the "last one".
:o wow and I call Icy a dino. Surely this has actually got to be the last one though bar a control OOB?
There will be new strats as well, which always helps
I definitely smell some insider trading ;) . I do think we'll see a slowing down of new strats but there's bound to still be smaller stuff to be found, and certainly there are plenty of known 'TAS-only' strats which could be brought to console by borderline insane individuals (my dms are always open).
There's no reason anyone's given here to expect much slowing this year, there's still plenty of confirmed possible untieds and players to go for them. I'll cautiously pred 10 untieds this year, +2 hoarded from last year.
I can't remember what year I predicted last time for the sub 1:10 but I'll stick with that :)
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100% it happens before December 31, 2024. I would be willing to bet A LOT on it.
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Here are a few historical references (I may have missed some).
February 2006
1:17:00 barrier = done (https://forums.the-elite.net/index.php?topic=1129.msg215741#msg215741)
November 2006
Will we ever pass the 1.15.00 mark? (https://forums.the-elite.net/index.php?topic=1042.msg235284#msg235284)
May 2007
1:14:59 (https://forums.the-elite.net/index.php?topic=954.0)
April 2008
1:13:59 (https://forums.the-elite.net/index.php?topic=13616.msg285105#msg285105)
March 2013
Goldeneye overall combined time (https://forums.the-elite.net/index.php?topic=18828.msg385289#msg385289)
December 2013
Will 1:11:59 ever happen? (https://forums.the-elite.net/index.php?topic=19247.msg395825#msg395825)
August 2014
The 1:11:59 Total Time Topic (https://forums.the-elite.net/index.php?topic=19732.msg408582#msg408582)
February 2016
What will be the LAST GoldenEye untied to happen? (https://forums.the-elite.net/index.php?topic=20814.msg432219#msg432219)
August 2016
Do you think 1:10:59 will ever happen? (https://forums.the-elite.net/index.php?topic=21361.msg464105#msg464105)
October 2019
When is sub 1:11:00 total time going to happen? (https://forums.the-elite.net/index.php?topic=23202.msg462597#msg462597)
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100% it happens before December 31, 2024. I would be willing to bet A LOT on it.
We have been trending between 10-16 UWRs for the past DECADE. That isn't a trend that just lets up. At that pace, we come close to breaking 1:10:00 in 2023, and almost certainly do so in 2024.
Last July I took a look at this and in my opinion this trend relied on very few very talented players to cut time off the game. (Clemens and Ace combined cut more than 1 minute in the last decade alone)
Spoiler
A big chunk of time cuts are done by players who are able to get multiple uwr (for example only 14 players with an uwr have just 1 second to their name)
So here is a list of players who cut more than 1 second from the game and have submitted a time to the rankings within the last 3 years (their "Time Cut" is overall, not just the last 3 years in case it isn't obvious to anyone)
The ranks are based on the Time Cutter Rankings (https://wrs.the-elite.net/goldeneye/timecutter.php?y=all)
| Rank | Player | Time Cut | Last Time Cut | Last Time Submitted |
| 3 | Bryan B. | 2:12 | 09.07.2016 | 11.09.2018 |
| 5 | Karl Jobst | 1:17 | 31.01.2019 | 07.11.2019 |
| 6 | David Clemens | 1:14 | 01.08.2019 | 01.08.2019 |
| 7 | Rayan I. | 1:13 | 26.10.2019 | 28.12.2019 |
| 11 | Ilari Pekkala | 0:33 | 22.04.2010 | 08.07.2020 |
| 13 | Henrik Norgren | 0:27 | 14.04.2020 | 05.07.2020 |
| 14 | Marc Rützou | 0:20 | 01.07.2019 | 01.07.2019 |
| 15 | Ryan W. | 0:19 | 11.06.2015 | 20.07.2019 |
| 26 | Luke Szklarz | 0:05 | 10.09.2017 | 25.04.2020 |
| 28 | Daniel Coelho | 0:04 | 09.02.2020 | 17.04.2020 |
| 28 | Gus Riolo | 0:04 | 21.02.2020 | 12.07.2020 |
| 28 | Ryan Gibbs | 0:04 All on Runway 00 | 10.07.2018 | 20.09.2018 |
| 32 | Luke Pettit | 0:03 All on Frigate | 01.03.2017 | 23.03.2020 |
| 37 | Carl-Magnus Wall | 0:02 All on Surface | 27.01.2020 | 28.06.2020 |
| 37 | Dan Parker | 0:02 | 17.05.2019 | 17.06.2020 |
| 37 | Fernando Almeida | 0:02 All on Surface 2 00 | 05.12.2019 | 05.03.2020 |
| 37 | Hayden King | 0:02 All on Egypt | 20.08.2018 | 03.05.2019 |
| 37 | Joris Quevedo | 0:02 All on Jungle | 04.07.2020 | 05.07.2020 |
| 37 | Philip Bezgoubov | 0:02 | 18.10.2017 | 30.04.2020 |
Take from this what you want, but we really need those top guys who have cut more than 5 seconds to actively play if we want to continue the trend of 10+ seconds cut every year (which didn't happened only once in 2009)
On the upside there are newer players who show incredible potential, but can they be the ones who can single-handedly cut 5+ seconds a year? Because that is what is needed to cut 15+ seconds.
Still, with 10-13 seconds a year, we will still get <1:10 around 2025.
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May 2007
1:14:59 (https://forums.the-elite.net/index.php?topic=954.0)
In this thread there was a post;
Good job Elite!! For the statistics freaks, here's some data from the past:
14 October 1998 : 1:42:48 (total SZ+SN) (Players: 23:50 SZ, 33:28 SZ, 45:30 SN) Wes McKinney, founding father, created GoldenEye's World Rankings page in the first quarter of 1998. The exact datum is 24 March 1998. The most ancient information I have dates from October 1998. This period is characterized by Steven Zwartjes's reign, under a different point system with even decimals.
How did the "different point system with even decimals" work?
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It might look impossible now but that's the way it's always been. Sub 1:10 will be unhoarded in jan/feb 2025
How did the "different point system with even decimals" work?
I asked about this when i found some old rankings pages but got no answer. Which is understandable since that system was only used until june '99. But if anyone feels smart enough to reverse engineer it, why not give it a try :nerd:
Rankings Oct 14th '98 https://web.archive.org/web/20091027163156/http://geocities.com/m_liem/GE/goldrank.htm
All submitted times on each level Sept 12th '98 https://web.archive.org/web/20091027163145/http://geocities.com/m_liem/GE/goldeney.htm