The Elite Forum
The Big Three Plus One => GoldenEye 007 => Topic started by: Woett on April 15, 2021, 07:01:10 am
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Last month we got to witness Henrik's Train SA 1:22, completing one of the best untied sweeps ever. To put his Train times into perspective, Henrik is a combined 3 seconds ahead of Marc, 5 seconds ahead of Ace, 8 seconds ahead of Luke, and at least 10 seconds ahead of everyone else. An insane achievement that is rightfully celebrated. However for this post, this is where the celebration unfortunately ends.
Because what else has been achieved this year? The answer is sadly very little. With only 1 untied in the first 100+ days of 2021, this has been one of the worst starts to a year in the history of Goldeneye. There has only been 1 year ever where Goldeneye has had fewer than 10 untieds across the year, and currently the community is barely on pace for 3. So as far as untieds go, 2021 has so far been lackluster in quantity. Let's take a look at tied world records then. But before I go on, I want to make sure that, obviously, every world record in this game takes a lot of work and is a tremendous achievement. I sincerely hope that nothing in this post takes away from the glory and prestige of people getting pbs and world records. I would just like to take a look at the community as a whole. If you read this and you have gotten a pb or world record recently, I applaud you and congratulations :) Keep it up!
Back to world records in 2021. As far as tied records are concerned, we have seen 21 of them so far. This is also not looking good. We are clearly not on pace to get to 100 world records this year, and the last time that happened was back in 2013. Moreover, the majority of world records this year were set on relatively easier stages; Runway SA 22 has been achieved 3 times, as has Surface 1 A 102. Surface 2 A 46 has been tied twice, and we have seen 8 Cradle 33s across the different difficulties. Only 5 tied world records have been achieved that are not deemed 'Tier 7'; Bunker 1 A 16 (twice), Bunker 2 A 23 (also twice) and we have seen one Archives A 15 this year thus far. Impressive times for sure, but I think it is fair to say that, for the community as a whole, in total this is slightly underwhelming.
How about high level pbs then? It is hard to quantify this, so I somewhat arbitrarily have taken a look at the current top 10 in Point Rankings and see which personal bests have been set recently. Again, the total result is not what one might hope for.
Luke Szklarz (in second place) improved his Dam 00 and his Silo SA times this year, where in both cases he is now only one second away from a Marc Rützou untied. Both Gus Riolo and Irie Butler (in fifth and sixth place respectively) have set very respectable times this year on Silo, Aztec, Dam and Bunker 1, getting 6 personal bests each.
And that's it. Those are all the pbs the top 10 has accrued this year. Maybe one can see this as good news for Timmy Johansson and Troy Noojin who both had a great second half of last year and start of this year and are inching their way towards the top 10, but still. One can also view all of this as slightly concerning.
A few counter arguments to this negativity. First of all, a few months without untieds is nothing special. In 2019 we only saw 2 untieds in the first 3.5 months. And in 2017 we only saw 2 untieds in the first 8 months of the year! But with Frigate SA 58, Aztec 00 135, Silo SA 107 and Dam A 52 (and quite a few more) all happening, 2017 still turned out to be a great year with multiple amazing untieds that still stand untied to this day. Furthermore, it's obviously more difficult than ever to get world records nowadays, especially since the boring 4 is no more. This will be even further exacerbated if times like Surface 1 A 101 or Cradle 32 happen. If those sorts of times ever do happen, it would then be very hard to fault people for not tying them en masse. This would be reason to compliment and congratulate the community, instead of to criticise it. Moreover, looking at pbs from the top 10 can be a bit misleading. Not everyone actively plays all the time, and if people are inactive for a while, other people (like the aforementioned TJ and TN) will gradually rise to the top and suddenly the top10 would look more active again. And finally, Perfect Dark has been absolutely popping off recently with already a full minute (!) cut from their rankings this year. Maybe this is just a moment in time where PD gets and deserves more of a spotlight, and GE will be back soon enough.
All in all, I'm not sure what to think. Am I overreacting and is it way too early to say anything? Or is the sparsity of good and new records indeed slight cause for concern?
PS EDIT: It could also be the case that people are hoarding of course. Time will tell I suppose :)
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There is no risk
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Untieds only get harder to achieve as time goes on, and there's a finite amount of time that can be cut in the game. It mathematically must slow down at some point. This is inevitable. Compared to the upcoming year of 2022, it would currently be the same as this year, except Train SA 1:22 is not longer an achievable untied, which already makes next year harder, not to mention whatever else gets untied.
As you mention as well, there aren't as many accessible easy WRs, so it's natural for the count to drop. When all of the Boring 4 were WRs, as well as other times such as Surface 2 Agent 0:47 and Cradle Agent 0:34, it was much easier to get one. 32 of the current levels are untied, so that leaves much fewer options to get something that is more accessible. Just wait until Surface 1 1:02, Depot 0:39, and Caverns 1:01 are gone as well. :v
Lots of people are inactive, especially at the top, but the summer usually livens things up. Activity in the middle levels is also important for the long-term life of the game which is currently fine.
It's also natural to focus on the calendar year, but a lot has happened that just doesn't necessarily fall within the last 3.5 months, a very small time period really. Pogo and Timmy flew up the ranks to 11th and 12th, lots of uncommon WRs were tied such as Egypt Agent and Depot Agent, and the middle areas of the rankings became much stronger; Fanny and Alberto are almost out of top 50.
It's a slower calendar year so far for sure, but not at a concerning level to suggest Goldeneye is dead, and everything else that has happened is naturally to be expected.
There are some things yet to come. :v
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Don't worry, I'm confident there's a non-zero number of untieds being hoarded as we speak :kappa:
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I remain confident that more great times will happen in the future!
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Idk if other people feel similarly, obviously there's exceptions. But even if I play a lot I find it hard to pb in the first few months of a year, esp around my bday in March. There just seems to be a lull around this time, and as times get harder and harder to achieve, it becomes even more of a thing. I'm not sure how this game will go in the next few years, untied wise. But I can safely say there's gunna be lots of activity here to stay, sometimes the game is just a little more unrewarding, and sometimes we are choke artists. Right now all we can hope is the cod fish oil pills Marc is taking coughs up an untied or two. :rollin:
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Not sure about the other issues, but this being the first full calendar year without the Boring 4, I imagine TWRs will never, eeeeeever be the same... again.
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My feeling is that the current state of things is more due to lack of playing time from top players than the records being too optimised. I haven't been as cued into things in the last couple of months as I usually am, so maybe I'm wrong about this (if I am, and I'm denigrating the efforts of players, please, someone correct me), but there haven't been that many truly serious and sustained grinds for untieds this year. Henrik is an obvious one, which yielded an untied, Calle is another one, and he very nearly got S1 A 1:01. Iirc Marc has been hopping between different stages and full-game runs, Ace, Clem, Wodahs and Luke haven't played much, Gus has been focussing on getting points, and neither of the two frenchman has put in a serious grind this year afaik, though I could be wrong. The only other players with untieds are Karl (inactive), Grav (inactive), Haydos (inactive), and Pettit (inactive).
Aside from these players, I would say there are perhaps four other specialists, who don't currently have untieds but are the only ones who could currently get untieds on particular levels: Goose and Ogran on Streets (both inactive) and Swiss (inactive) and FrostHops on Frigate.
Level-wise, I'd say there are probably three levels which could be untied by wildcards:
- Frig A: Ted is the obvious frontrunner, but I think more due to his discipline with 2.3 than his OCB
- Silo 00: Marc, Ace and Goose would be the frontrunners here, but I would guess that others would be capable of the untied if they put in the grind
- S2 00: Risky nade strats make this one a contender. Illu (and JD I think?) have both gone for this one already, so seems like it's out there.
(You could maybe argue that Dam SA and B2 SA are up there due to underused strats but I would need to see some harder evidence that anyone outside of those already mentioned could get these.)
Obviously my knowledge is far from perfect, so I'd be interested if others have differing views, but I think it's reasonable to posit that it is lack of activity that is driving the current mini drought, and hopefully we'll see some of the top players grinding for untieds later this year.
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Some things are not meant to last forever.
When Twitch was new and fresh in 2012, it seemed as though there was an endless world of adventure out there. Every speedgame had a few folks who were playing it, pushing it, finding new strategies, and lowering the records. Everyone just wanted to get along and have a good time.
Skip to 10 years later, and every game has been "solved" to the point of pre-inputting certain coordinates on your control stick and just warping to the credits; or is so optimized that making even 1 mistake in a 2 hour run is run-ending. Where's the fun in that? It was super fun when the SM64 120 Star WR was like, 1:44, because any run could still be a WR, even with multiple, significant mistakes. But now? You need perfection for any chance.
Playing GoldenEye these days is simply not fun anymore. It's not fun to have to play perfectly, every second of ever run to even dream for a chance of a PB. It's too optimized, too solved, it's over. We are simply in what you would call "late-stage speedrunning". Obviously, the early stages, when every record is a personal best, every new find saves time, and everyone is exploring and getting along, are the most fun times. And as things progress more and more, they get less enjoyable.
If I had to throw out a guess I'd say these were the stages of GoldenEye speedrunning:
Early stage: 1999-2003
Early-middle stage: 2004-2010
Middle stage: 2011-2015
Late-middle stage: 2015-2019
Late stage: 2020-present
Eventually there will be a "late-late" stage where for any chance of any WR, you're required to learn 2.4 perfectly, use all the worst strategies in the game, like needing grenades on Caverns 00A or hoping the Aztec guards randomly run into you in such a way that they open the glass (this is possible btw). The game will become truly like being in a purgatory with no enjoyment whatsoever, and WRs will slowly dry up with only the most insane players still even thinking about playing for them.
We are simply witnessing the natural progression of the late stages of any hobby or activity. If you are seeking for the primal enjoyment that we had back in like 2006 playing this game, then sadly, you are going to have to look elsewhere.
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Damn dude, I agree things are getting optimised, but I think this perspective is possibly coloured by recency bias. This was your point of view only three months ago:
100% it happens before December 31, 2024. I would be willing to bet A LOT on it.
We have been trending between 10-16 UWRs for the past DECADE. That isn't a trend that just lets up. At that pace, we come close to breaking 1:10:00 in 2023, and almost certainly do so in 2024.
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Sometimes people reminisce about multiplayer games in the mid 00s, especially shooters, as a golden age of fun multiplayer, and the key ingredient to it I think is everyone was bad comparatively. When everything is more wet and wild, you can see people's distinct characteristics, playstyles, skills, weaknesses, etc, and you don't need to play for thousands of hours to be at least modestly successful. It's exciting! But as a game gets more solved, they all tend to blend into one optimized way to play, or otherwise become unviable.
Certainly, speedrunning in that era must have been the same.
Despite that, I've personally always been much more interested in the end-game and have contributed towards it in many ways. :nesquik: There's been a handful of games and communities I've been a part of where I re-examine how a game could be and "should" be played, and change it permanently for better or for worse. However, when you decide to get involved in gaming, which is essentially applied mathematics at its core, you must accept it as an inevitability.
This is also very applicable to many real life concepts. The idea of big fish, small pond is dead.
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If you are seeing for the primal enjoyment that we had back in like 2006 playing this game, then sadly, you are going to have to look elsewhere.
Only if you believe untied world records are the only source of enjoyment for speedrunning this game.
It's been 59 years since Wilt Chamberlain achieved a "speedrun" to 100 points in an NBA game, and no one is ever going to tie or untie that, but lo and behold, basketball is still popular.
Watching and participating in the matchplay tournament has been just as interesting to me as watching people grind for WRs. Matches feel like an "event," and they're convenient in that they have a set start time and you can estimate the end time, much like a sports event. Seeing people drop a sick time in one try is pretty epic, even though no one would care if such a time were posted to the ranks.
Also, watching Clemens grind for the 100% RTA record, it's clear that though this record is incredibly difficult, it is far from optimized.
What do I know, but I think these things could make the game seem more alive:
1. Greater focus on single-segment runs.
2. Races, matchplays, and any type of direct competition which requires players to interact in real time, rather than sit at home and grind. (EDIT: Actually, people are still generally at home for this stuff. But I think you can still see what I mean. You're not just sitting there doing your own thing for a multi-hour session.)
3. Forms of rankings which require your accomplishments to be recent. It's always struck me as weird that someone can be "currently" ranked in the top 10 having not played in years. To go back to my basketball analogy, Wilt Chamberlain will always be one of the top players of all time, but I guarantee you he's not winning the MVP this year.
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It's not fun to have to play perfectly, every second of ever run to even dream for a chance of a PB.
Chasing perfection and impossible goals is what makes my heart beat, nothing is more exiting than chasing for a WR pace run and then having a big run in your hands and sitting there, being ready to clutch it.
You cannot dictate what's fun or what isn't fun, the game has changed for sure but i wouldn't say that it isn't exiting anymore. Thinking that a game is exiting just because a lot of UWRs are achieved is a big mistake.
To me what makes the game exiting is the other players, the new players, the competition thats happening, getting passed, passing people back, getting WRs is cool of course, but at some point you just have to accept that you can't get them all and you have to learn to value good non WR times like Silo 1:00 or Frigate 0:23, that's just how it is today, it's surely very different that what it was in 2007. I think speedrunning will continue to evolve (not only for Goldeneye but for every other popular speedrunning games) as UWRs are getting more and more optimised and harder to obtain, it will invite us to value and explore other aspects of speedrunning, and that's what's already happening with stuff like bingo Mario or the current Brabham Cup for goldeneye.
At least speedrunners today are usually a lot less miserable than speedrunners back in 2001 who were getting tons of records but interactions with other users were way more technologically limited and rare than today. If speedrunning was all about getting a bunch of WRs alone, it wouldn't be fun, what makes it fun is competing and interacting with others.
Like anything in life, speedrunning is constantly evolving. You have to either evolve with speedrunning or disappear.
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born too late to enjoy before people got good
born just in time to complain that people got good
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Another thought I just had:
The overall combined time of the record board is 1:10:45.
The best overall combined time for a single player is Ace's 1:11:53.
Even without any record ever being untied, there is literally not a player in the world who doesn't have the potential to drop A FULL MINUTE off their personal times using only strategies that already exist and have been successfully done by others. The record board itself may start to move less often, but we are not the record board. We are individual players. And every individual player still has time to cut.
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Yeah I still have fun playing GE, I wouldn't play it if I didn't. Silo agent is super fun, it's just annoying to not pb for a while. Makes sense why you aren't playing anymore goose but don't assume everyone who is playing isn't having fun. At every level, some people are still able to enjoy it. I find myself most inspired by the new players these days, and I think with all the new people as of late we are set up for a future of runners all keeping the game alive. We all can expect less untieds from here on, but that's obvious and doesn't mean much tbh
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Only if you believe untied world records are the only source of enjoyment for speedrunning this game.
It's been 59 years since Wilt Chamberlain achieved a "speedrun" to 100 points in an NBA game, and no one is ever going to tie or untie that, but lo and behold, basketball is still popular.
Watching and participating in the matchplay tournament has been just as interesting to me as watching people grind for WRs. Matches feel like an "event," and they're convenient in that they have a set start time and you can estimate the end time, much like a sports event. Seeing people drop a sick time in one try is pretty epic, even though no one would care if such a time were posted to the ranks.
Also, watching Clemens grind for the 100% RTA record, it's clear that though this record is incredibly difficult, it is far from optimized.
What do I know, but I think these things could make the game seem more alive:
1. Greater focus on single-segment runs.
2. Races, matchplays, and any type of direct competition which requires players to interact in real time, rather than sit at home and grind. (EDIT: Actually, people are still generally at home for this stuff. But I think you can still see what I mean. You're not just sitting there doing your own thing for a multi-hour session.)
3. Forms of rankings which require your accomplishments to be recent. It's always struck me as weird that someone can be "currently" ranked in the top 10 having not played in years. To go back to my basketball analogy, Wilt Chamberlain will always be one of the top players of all time, but I guarantee you he's not winning the MVP this year.
You do bring up a very good point. "Match play" is something I long thought about in speedrunning, so it's nice to see it finally come to fruition. World Records aren't often broken in some categories of athletics (running), yet there are still regular meets, a season of international competition, world championships and the Olympics. For example, the men's 800 metres (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/800_metres_world_record_progression) hasn't been improved since the 2012 London Olympics, yet, of course, many men around the world are still training in that distance, running in various championships at the collegiate, national or international level.
(The women's record in 800 metres hasn't been improved since 1983... but that's a different story all together. And the same principles apply anyhow).
So yes, you are entirely correct in your assessment. I suppose I was slightly railroaded by the "framing" of the OP, suggesting that WRs are all that matters; when in reality, you are correct, there are other ways to compete and participate. Icy brings up good points too, his TASes are incredibly funny and epic to watch (I love his Western Land "fastest game ever" TAS).
Perhaps I've just been a bit doomer lately... perhaps... the solution is for me to return... plug in my RETRO-TINK (which has gone unused thus far), and improve my Train SA/00A personal records.... perhaps....
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Wouter Jansen Is sitting on about 20 UWRs ready to unleash when you all least expect it. He’s here for the long game
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Worried myself into a JRPG frenzy
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Some things are not meant to last forever.
When Twitch was new and fresh in 2012, it seemed as though there was an endless world of adventure out there. Every speedgame had a few folks who were playing it, pushing it, finding new strategies, and lowering the records. Everyone just wanted to get along and have a good time.
Skip to 10 years later, and every game has been "solved" to the point of pre-inputting certain coordinates on your control stick and just warping to the credits; or is so optimized that making even 1 mistake in a 2 hour run is run-ending. Where's the fun in that? It was super fun when the SM64 120 Star WR was like, 1:44, because any run could still be a WR, even with multiple, significant mistakes. But now? You need perfection for any chance.
Playing GoldenEye these days is simply not fun anymore. It's not fun to have to play perfectly, every second of ever run to even dream for a chance of a PB. It's too optimized, too solved, it's over. We are simply in what you would call "late-stage speedrunning". Obviously, the early stages, when every record is a personal best, every new find saves time, and everyone is exploring and getting along, are the most fun times. And as things progress more and more, they get less enjoyable.
If I had to throw out a guess I'd say these were the stages of GoldenEye speedrunning:
Early stage: 1999-2003
Early-middle stage: 2004-2010
Middle stage: 2011-2015
Late-middle stage: 2015-2019
Late stage: 2020-present
Eventually there will be a "late-late" stage where for any chance of any WR, you're required to learn 2.4 perfectly, use all the worst strategies in the game, like needing grenades on Caverns 00A or hoping the Aztec guards randomly run into you in such a way that they open the glass (this is possible btw). The game will become truly like being in a purgatory with no enjoyment whatsoever, and WRs will slowly dry up with only the most insane players still even thinking about playing for them.
We are simply witnessing the natural progression of the late stages of any hobby or activity. If you are seeking for the primal enjoyment that we had back in like 2006 playing this game, then sadly, you are going to have to look elsewhere.
This whole post is quintessential "make America great again" mentality lmao
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Wouter Jansen Is sitting on about 20 UWRs ready to unleash when you all least expect it. He’s here for the long game
Possible but highly unlikely. Sorry to say, as I've been a huge WJ fan since I first watched his GE speedruns back in 2003. I would to see him blow everyone away as he claimed he would...but that's not going to happen now getting near his 40s with a busy RL. :( He will always be my favorite GE King even though Ace is easily the most skilled player the elite has ever and probably will ever see.
One day I was feeling like a badass beating facility 00 agent in under 1:20 (Beating the Archives invisibility time) so I decide to go online and check the records....I'm like man this has to be a record or within a few seconds of one. Find the-elite and see Facility - 00 Agent 0:57 by WJ. I'm like UNDER A MINUTE? What in the hell man download the video the rest is history. To this day my Fac 00 is I think 1:09? lol
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These things ebb and flow, I'm laughing at GE being thought of as done and over with when someone new came along for mk64 and dug into everything and found some new things and inspired everyone to give things a re look and a bunch of new strategies happened and is still happening.
Reality is the game is 25 years old, it's going to have some sluggish periods.
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This was your point of view only three months ago:
100% it happens before December 31, 2024. I would be willing to bet A LOT on it.
We have been trending between 10-16 UWRs for the past DECADE. That isn't a trend that just lets up. At that pace, we come close to breaking 1:10:00 in 2023, and almost certainly do so in 2024.
:LOL:
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Over the last 12 years the total time decayed in a very steady and almost linear fashion, with an average of 15.4 seconds cut per year. The forecast is heavy untied rain.
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Someone predicted that we'd have very few UWRs this year. I think it might have been Icy, I'm gonna go look for it. Will return if I find it.
EDIT: FOUND IT!
https://forums.the-elite.net/index.php?topic=24007.0
It's reply #1:
2021 will be a year of very few Goldeneye untieds.
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Made by an AceCorp mate who "ceebs to post it" himself:
(https://i.imgur.com/ZKObqcy.png)