The Elite Forum
The Big Three Plus One => GoldenEye 007 => Topic started by: RWG on June 21, 2021, 09:58:30 pm
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Today, while exploring the topic of Aztec 00 Agent, I came to a realization that, at first, reflected a self-affirmed bias that I've had about certain stages in the game; however, upon further reflection and discussion, may actually reflect something else entirely. Yes, that is incredibly vague, however, keep following.
"Eras" in speedrunning are a fascinating thing. Just like in anthropology, "eras" are harder to see when you are actually in them. For example, the "Baby Boomer" era wasn't as clearly defined in the '80s as it is today. Likewise, it's easy to look back and think about the BBWJ era as a clearly defined era (roughly 2002-2005), but it's not so clear to figure out what era we are in today. Is it really the "Twitch era?" Or are we in some kind of new age era?
I think it's the latter, with the "Twitch era" ending loosely around late 2017/early 2018. At that time, there were plenty of epic streams, and a lot of hivemind playing stages which were recently streamed by the likes of RWG and KJ, for example. This hivemind still exists today, but the point of influence has shifted, it seems.
Now, stay with me on this. There are a number of stages, particularly complex 00 Agent stages, where the records haven't moved from the previous "Twitch era" ending in 2017. I will lay out examples below. Furthermore, there are a number of stages that have indeed moved greatly from that "Twitch era", with numerous runners getting great times, towards 93+ points, or even UWRs. I want to make this thread mostly to write down the thoughts I have rattling around about this, but also perhaps, to point out which levels are still stuck in the "Twitch era" and need to be brought into the "New Age" (whatever that might entail, and whatever that might be named, somewhere down the road).
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Ok, so here we go...
Levels Stuck in Twitch Era
Starting with the most clear and obvious examples...
Aztec 00 Agent
Luke's 1:35 was set in late 2017, at the tail end of what I'd consider this distinct "era". Wodahs got 1:36 shortly thereafter. However, what's interesting is that Clem & Ace's 1:37s still remain the T--3 times on the stage, with not a single player having achieved 1:37 or better since 2017. That's really what began this whole train of thought in my mind. I found it truly amazing that, despite countless new strategies being discovered and refined, no one has scored a 1:37 or lower! Admittedly, this re-affirmed a personal bias I've had in my own mind of new-age players lacking the "killer instinct"; but hold that thought, because when we get to the stages that *have* entered the "new era", I will aim to disprove my own personal bias on this matter. Even so, I do find it amazing that no one has pushed for lower on this stage. But it's not the only one...
Silo 00 Agent
Silo 00 Agent 1:21 is a two-way tie which has not been improved or matched since late 2017. Fascinatingly, aside from Irie's very recent 1:22s and quest for the WR; not one single person in the "new era" has even scored 1:23 or better! It seems that Silo 00A 1:24 is very similar to Aztec 00A 1:38, in that, it seems to be where the "new age" players tap out of Silo 00A, moving on to other stages. Why is this? As we'll see, there may be no reason at all in particular, which is why I can only describe it as an "interesting time anomaly".
Bunker 1 00 Agent
This one mostly fits, though admittedly, Clem did lower the WR to 1:01 in the new-age era. That being said, the stage remains incredibly underplayed since 2017. Even Flicker's 1:03 was from 2017, and the only player to join DC RI MR RW LS at 1:03 or lower in those four years has been Irie. I mean, think about that for a second. It's truly amazing. Five of the top, active players from the 2012-2017 era went and got 1:03. Only one of the top players from the 2018-present era has done the same. What explains this? Everyone else is stuck at 1:05 or higher. Is this simply a level, stuck in a past era?
Streets Secret & 00 Agent
Not the first time I've talked about this stage. Incredibly, after Ogran got 1:54s in 2016, not a single person matched either record until I did in late 2019. Mike Mint soon followed, but still, to this day, and despite the new-age players getting better and better with 2.x control styles, 1:54 remains very uncommon. Now, at a glance, one might think, "ah, silly level, no one wants to rely on luck for a WR", but I think my first example in the next section will disprove that... so what gives?
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Levels That Have Entered the New Age
Frigate 00 Agent
The WR on Frigate 00A at the end of 2017 was 1:05. In the time since, we've not only seen it improved by two people to 1:04, but we've seen Luke get 1:05, Ogran 1:06, and a half-dozen players getting 1:07s on the stage. This shows that players in the new-age are definitely not averse to playing luck-based stages. And it's fascinating to see the time bleed of a time like, my 1:09, which was 93 points when set in 2015, but is now only 80 points. Despite there not really being any new strategy developed on the stage, that's a dozen players who have grinded out a very difficult and luck based time. What explains the desire to play Frigate 00 Agent, but not say, Silo 00 Agent or Streets SA/00A? I truly do not know, (which is in large part, why I'm making this thread)
Surface 2 00 Agent
This may actually be the best example of a stage which has entered the "new era". The record, at the end of 2017, was Boss' iconic 1:24. Today the record stands 6 seconds lower, with nine (9) players having bopped Boss' 1:24! That is simply truly and utterly remarkable. I'm honestly stunned looking at this now. Even more incredible is the point bleed visible, with a time like that of Mirrormage's 1:28, having been worth 95 points when set in 2015; is now only worth 78 points! To compare and contrast, Luke Szklarz's Silo 00A 1:23 was worth 94 points when set, also in 2015; but has only bled 2 points, down to 92 points!
Of course, Surface 2 00 Agent has seen numerous strategy developments. But I'd be willing to wager that Silo 00 Agent has just as many *possible* strategy developments out there, waiting to be found... if people played the level more. So what exactly explains the "rush" of players, really grinding hard and getting awesome Surface 2 00 Agent times, but not playing the levels which seem to be stuck in the Twitch era? Again, I have no explanation. I can only chalk this up to a "strange time anomaly" for now.
Jungle Secret & 00 Agent
This one is truly cooked. To end 2017, the WRs were four way ties, at 53 & 54 seconds. Today, two seconds have been cut from each difficulty, which is actually an incredible feat on a level under 1 minute. Not only that, but the WRs from 2017 have bled to be worth 92 and 93 points. Again, compare that to the WRs on Aztec 00A, Silo 00A or Streets SA/00A, where the WRs have not changed at all (despite at least Silo & Aztec being more complicated, and thus more susceptible to new strategies). Irie, Joris and Janne have all destroyed the times that were once WRs in 2017. Perhaps it's a personal preference of them, liking this stage. But it amazes me that three "new age" players have beaten the 2017 WRs on Jungle SA/00A; meanwhile zero new-age players have beaten the WRs on levels like the examples above. What explains this?
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Concluding Thoughts
There are a number of levels that are sort of stuck in between eras... Bunker 2 00 Agent might be a good example, where Greenounet held the WR in 2017, and is the only one to lower the time since, with most people still stuck at 56-57 seconds or lower. Dam 00 Agent would absolutely have been stuck in the "Twitch era" until very recently (with 1:56 not even having been matched by anyone until late 2020).
You would think, with the amount of players and diversity of "favourite levels" among them, that most levels would be evenly distributed in terms of people who like them, and thus, most 2017-era times would be equally likely to be broken or improved. The same goes for even say, 93-95 pointers on the stage. But we can clearly see that this isn't true.
Now admittedly, my first instinct was to chalk this up to a "killer instinct" lacking from new-age players; but thinking about it beyond 1 second, I realize that simply isn't true. The Jungle times I previously all mentioned took a "killer instinct" to lower to 51/52s, along with great times set by JDBlack and Fernando on Surface 2, for example. Even stuff like Train 00A 1:52s by Gus & Sean MacKenzie are really great times in this new-era that display the desire to lower a time, even if it's not worth many points, to something close to the WR. But again, this only seems to be the case on some stages, and not others. Why? Like, what motivated Gus & Sean to push for lower on Train 00A; but that same motivation is lacking for players to push for lower on Silo 00A or Aztec 00A?
Another explanation that has been proposed is that, perhaps players today don't have as much time as they did back in the 2010's, or especially 2000's. But I'm not sure that is true, as most GE speedrunners have been late teens/early twenties, all with obligations like school and work, which is no different than today. In fact, one might even argue that players today are more inclined to play, since it's become a healthier, more social activity.
Truly, perhaps the most simple explanation is just level preference. Or perhaps the community hivemind on which levels we play simply hasn't rotated around to the stuff like Silo 00A or Bunker 1 00A just yet. But even so, I don't find this explanation to be very satisfactory, since, again, with such a large player base, there's bound to be large diversity in preference of level.
I'm obviously not saying at all that the players in the 2017 were better, nor had more of a "killer instinct" than the players today. In fact, I actively set out to disprove that notion in this post (and I think I have successfully done that). Alas, what remains to explain why some levels have had a big influx in players achieving UWRs or 93+ pointers, whereas other stages, like Aztec 00A or Silo 00A, have not?
I would love to hear any thoughts or reflections on this idea!
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DISCLAIMER: I wrote this post in 40 minutes as a stream of consciousness type exercise. I do not necessarily endorse, agree with, or even claim authorship of any thoughts in this post. They are simply thoughts that passed through my mind. Please do not take them too seriously if it causes you distress to do so.
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This kind of thing isn't limited to 00A levels either. Take Control Agent or Bunker 1 SA for example. 3:56 hasn't been achieved by a new player since Luke got it in 2016. I tried to change in May for about a week or so, and I still intend to at some point, but nobody has managed to do it thus far. Same thing with Bunker 1 SA, 21 was achieved first in 2008 and still only four people have it or lower.
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I know that Marc and Clem both "recently" tried to push Silo 00A down but both stopped
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Can't remember who was in my chat the other day and we were discussing this.
I think we decided that Dam 52 was a good point to define the end of the 'Twitch Era' and the start of the Current Era, as the death of the Boring 4 was the start of the tectonic shift to the Fantastic 4.