NFL Discussion, Bets, and Picks Analysis (by Shep)

[Ngamer]

We're back!  Time to sign in and get your picks made for the opening week of the NFL season.  As always we're doing a very simple straight-up winners (no spread) pool hosted from ESPN.  Don't be afraid to join if you're not a football expert- it's all in good fun, and often those who claim to know the most end up just about doing the worst.

Start here: games.espn.go.com/pigskin/frontpage
Sign in, Create An Entry, and make all your picks.  Then Join a Group, and Search for
The Elite
our pass is elite
---

Also, don't feel like the season is over if you miss a week of picks this year!  Shep is going to be running a seperate set of rankings that takes wins each week into account instead of just total correct picks over the full 17 weeks, and missing a few games there barely hurts you.  Shep's also making a comeback as our Results Reporter for 2007, and will post winners and commentary every Tuesday morning.  What a guy!

Speaking of proud traditions, let's continue with another: post the two teams you pick to play in the Superbowl this season, and which of them will win.  If you want to go all-out and predict more stuff like who all will make the playoffs feel free, but the SB pick is the main thing I'll keep track of- should be a good laugh to go back and see what we thought 17 weeks from now!

EDIT - Just for fun, here are last year's predictions:

(actual result was Colts over Bears, for non-Americans)

Ngamer - Broncos over Giants
Bcks - Seahawks over Colts
QB - Colts over Cowboys
Shep - Panthers over Colts
Neo - Colts over Panthers
Come - Colts over Giants
wiff - Broncos over Cowboys
mikers - Seahawks over Broncos
wheat - Steelers over Cowboys
DarkHawk - Cowboys over Colts
PDO - Bengals over Bears
Jimbo - Panthers over Bengals
pack - Colts over Panthers

No Bears love, though PDO came closest there.  Plenty of Colts support... but what was with all those Broncos and Panthers picks?

[Quiet Bol]

My prediction from last year was...

"I was going to say Colts over Bears, but...as much as the Cowboys make me sick...I'll have to predict...

Colts over Cowboys!"

Edit - I'm worried about looking back at the end of the season and seeing that I made a minor mistake again, so I'd better change this up and get serious!

New England over Philadelphia

P.S. New England will beat Jacksonville in the AFC Championship game and Jax will go at least 12-4 this season, winning the AFC South and earning a bye.

Ah, perfect.

[Jimbo]

Green Bay over New England 35-21 in the Superbowl!

[..]

Colts over Cowboys

[rshepherd1000]

ugh

trying to pick one team out of that HORRIBLE lot that is the nfc is not the kind of thing to put me in a good mood for the rest of the day

*puts all names into a hat*

vikings....

cant have this

sigh

ill go with dallas i suppose

Colts over Cowboys

[rshepherd1000]

i dont know who is more delusional either

qb or jimbo?

ill actually have to say qb since the pats will at least make the playoffs

[Quiet Bol]

Pfft, you Colts over Cowboys pickers are a year late. Get with the times and pick an NFC team that has a realistic shot.

[Neo]

Colts over Saints!

About time you made this prediction thing Jon, I don't know how many people are going to have to miss out because it's so late!

[ShadowZero64]

Packers over Colts

[DavidK5]

San Francisco 49er's over the Buffalo Bills!

[rshepherd1000]

i hope you guys are entering the pickem too. especially you jim. it would be interesting to see if you could beat fal

[rshepherd1000]

btw incase it hasnt been made clear enough already, there is just over 24 hours left before the season starts. So unless you want me to spam you all on AIM later then get joined up!

[dragondragon18]

Chargers over 49ers

[ShadowZero64]

I just joined.

Quite ridic that you had to enter your parents email(!) when making an ESPN account though

Obv I entered dinmor69@hotmail for that slot.

[wishiwasfamous]

Broncos over 49ers

[rshepherd1000]

jim did you click that you were aged under 13 or something?

[wishiwasfamous]

Tried to sign up but you have to be 21. So I fudged some facts and made a new username.

All done though. Thanks for the 24 hour warning, shep

[ShadowZero64]

Nope, entered my real b-day date.

Obv a ridic site

[rshepherd1000]

people will be able to sign up after thursday but it will just mean youll be one behind the rest (but level with qb and jimbo) after the colts win.

This is very odd about needing to be 21. We've had around 40 entrants in previous years and i dont recall this coming up once. Of course this doesnt make any practical difference and everyone should still sign up. Maybe there some prize or so this year that has an age limit?

[wheatrich]

I'll just predict the worst agonizing result for Jimbo--Bears over Patriots.

[octoinky]

I have no clue who to pick in the NFC, really..  But come on, have I seen a New England yet?!


New England over Chicago

[rshepherd1000]

now im at home ive had a chance to read jons first post in full

[mikerspd]

Chargers over Seahawks

[matt8k]

Just want to make it clear I have absolutely no idea what I'm doing here.  
Seahawks > New England

[rshepherd1000]

16 hours until the first game. A lot of you who should be signed up by now arent so get a move on!

[Ngamer]

No hesitation with this pick; it's a near-lock!

Chargers over Saints

[TheLegendaryPSR]

as i am signing up to (yet another) new site, i have to ask - how many americans know that the united kingdom and great britain is not a country?

also, patriots over colts.

but if you want a joke pick, the bears over anyone with rex grosman as MVP

[dragondragon18]

How is Patriots over Colts in the superbowl less of a joke pick than Bears over someone?  I mean Patriots and Colts are both in the AFC!

[rshepherd1000]

[TheLegendaryPSR]

still more likely to happen though

[Fal2002]

I entered my selection for week 1, however i have no clue about which region each time is from so until i have a look it will be..

Colts Over Eagles

[rshepherd1000]

under 9 hours to go guys. lets get this show on the road!

[ajbownes]

I'll go for Pats over Bears for the Superbowl.

[packattack]

I won't be doing nfl picks this year so that at least guarantees a new champion.

My superbowl pick would be San Diego over Dallas

[RWG]

Colts over Eagles!

[youseinthehouse]

Eags over Ravens booyah homer picks!@

PS, not doing espn pickem.  @#%$ espn fantasy sports of all kinds... so slow always.  Don't forget how last year they totally @#%$ everyone over.  I'm doing one at yahoo and if you guys really care, I'll tell you how many i got right week to week or something, for whatever shep is doing.  But you probably won't, and that'd make sense.

[rshepherd1000]

if its the spread pickem at yahoo then we have an elite league there also!

*EDIT nvm you joined

[rshepherd1000]

4 hours people! tick tock

[rshepherd1000]

just over 2 hours now! last call for those who dont want to start one pick down

[Lark]

Pats over Eagles


PDO says

Brian19King (12:00:52 PM): Ravens over Cowboys 20-9

[Ngamer]

Oh yeah, and also, this is the topic to use to track all the bets you make this season.  Hopefully wheat and QB will clue us in to some of theirs?!

Ngamer Bets - Week 1

Packers over Eagles straight up
AND
Chargers over Bears straight up
* risking $5 to win $12.25

YTD NFL Balance: $0

[Ngamer]

Dear Bryan Youse,

My source deep within the Canadian Football League administration has informed me that an opening has recently appeared in the Toronto Argonauts' 2007 home schedule.  With regards to your team's self-confidence, you would perhaps be well advised to forgo the remainder of the NFL season and play the rest of your games north of the border, rather than in Philadelphia.

With regards,
~N

[youseinthehouse]

Well done, and well deserved.  [The reference here is that I mentioned off hand in chat the other day that any team that can't stop a 4th and 26 play (see GB/PHI, end of game, '03 playoffs) should spend the rest of their time playing the Toronto Argonauts].  Still, why no ragging on QB or *looks around*, Mark Jones?  What a joke of a game that was, for shame!

... I think Bears can still rest easy being a game back of everyone in their division... Minny and Detroit played joke teams, and GB had no semblance of an offense all day (Defense was so-so, the Eagles' low point total had as much to do with their own mistakes/penalties)... SIGH!

Also, on a separate note:  Wheat, I guess you CAN count on a ton of touchdowns from that minny defense every year?  Hahaha.

[TheLegendaryPSR]

i am so glad the chargers beat the bears and that superbowl MVP rex showed why he shouldn't be starting

and i'd just like to show the raiders game footage of the new england game, so they can narrow down where they went wrong last season

[youseinthehouse]

Rex didn't play badly at all and he should still be the starter.  His lone interception was more Berrian's fault than his.  He gave his team a chance.  You can't do much offensively when your top back fumbles twice and your backup fumbles on top of that.  He was keeping the team in line to score points, they just didn't represent.  (and the SD defense is too good).

[Jimbo]

Now now Youse, I've been to each Packer game this year, that Defense is something FIERCE, which was the probably the biggest reason the Eagles didn't score more points. Harris was out for a while, and that also happens to be when McNabb got his touchdown with Uvant (spelling?) I can't offer any positives for the Eagles, mainly because I hate them oh so much, it's just nice to get a win.

Next week, the Packers face a weak NYG team where Eli could possibly be out. Greg Jennings (#2 WR) and Vernand Morency (Other RB besides Jackson) will be back, so the offense won't be nearly as bad as it was vs Philly. Also, the Packers / Favre play a ton better on the road then at Lambeau, so expect maybe 2 or 3 TD passes out of the man! The Packers could start a roll here, they're already on a 5 game winning streak, so if you don't mind, I'm going to go touch myself to that thought and fine tune my fantasy team!

[wheatrich]

heh, I made my bets earlier in the week.  Only went 2-2 though (yay texans) [actually biggest bet was on Oakland to win one of their first three games--looks like I'll need Cleveland to suck majorly in two weeks (ugh probably will have to hedge it)])  I pretty much cleaned up at college football this weekend however (I had almost every bet against the big 10 and all but two (had nevada ML as the big upset that almost happened) came through.  (*checks bets* also took Min Atl under and wondering why I didn't put more $ on that) liking the shift in line tonight for Ariz as well.  [edit2 of course instead of taking Ariz +3 1/2-- I took ML and they [censored] me at the end... sports betting is so damn frustrating]

How about those Jags Q?

Eli's out at least a month but I'm guessing it's more like 2 months.  NYG is in big big trouble.  (not as much as Atl/KC at the moment however)

edit--Also, I don't think NE's going to be allowed to cheat anymore youse.

[TheLegendaryPSR]

rex is the chicago version of kyle boller(who i hate more and more by each play)

the problem is he very rarely keeps his team in the game. he can't even hold onto the snap, when he does, he either over, or under, throws his receivers.

the only thing he has going for him is that he is a tough bastard

[dragondragon18]

Bets with QB:

Colts vs Jaguars winning division title
$25

Colts vs Jaguars season series (no action if they split)
$25

I have the colts on both.

[youseinthehouse]

lol at NE cheating... they ought to get their rings cut off of their fingers.  You always KNEW they weren't that good, talent-wise, for how good their defense was.

Jim, are you kidding me?  The pack D was fine, but wayyyy too many offensive mistakes.  Dropped passes, badly thrown balls, and penalties did us in WAY more than anything you guys did.  However, if you want a bright spot, it certainly isn't the offense, so feel free to be happy about your defensive performance...  Harris wouldn't be covering Avant anyways, so that play wouldn't have been any different.

Without any bias, I think that the Eagles defense played better than GB.  A much less rested unit, what with their special teams giving the ball back after a stop TWO different times... holds you to three field goals, TWO of which were pretty much unavoidable after turnovers already in FG range.  Consider your offense to have created three points on its own.  Yeah, yeah, I realize you guys won, so this is all moot.  Good job.  However, BAD JOB in fantasy lolz!

also lol at people eliminated from survival already!  (now that I say this I sense a week 2 downfall for me)