Author Topic: NFL Discussion, Bets, and Picks Analysis (by Shep)  (Read 10826 times)

youseinthehouse

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NFL Discussion, Bets, and Picks Analysis (by Shep)
« Reply #100 on: September 27, 2007, 07:44:00 pm »
wheat - I wasnt' even addressing you.... we haven't been having a dialog about this recently!  I was talking about octo's post directly above.  I know octo follows football a little bit less than you, so I wasn't sure if he knew about inter-divisional play schedules.  (Although it's ridiculous to think that Pats will kill the Bills any less b/c of location).  The fact is, the niners/pitt game DIDN'T go like the arizona/baltimore game.  Arizona has weapons at WR the Niners could only hope to have three or four drafts or FA signings from now.  I don't make my picks based on odds, in fact I never look at them (unless of course I'm betting, which I am not this season).  I could care less how many points Vegas is giving Team X, a process driven largely by current betting patterns and all that @#%$ that has little to do with actual matchups/conditions/etc and more with emotions/current records/etc.  Even still, how will NE not get at least 10 points vs Fins?  Week 7.

I'm playing for a perfect season.  To me, that's a more fun goal than to win some pool of 30 dudes.  Some risk early can lead to great reward later... especially if risk is minimized, like I've been desperately trying to do.  Maybe one of these weeks, one of my "surefires" will get upset.  That's NFL.  Pats/Colts could lose any given week as well.  You don't have to subscribe to my style or even believe it will work.  That's the beautiful thing.  If I lose, you guys get to be like LOL YOU WASTED NEW ENGLAND ROFL.  So why are you complaining?  Do you WANT me to play better in your eyes, and perhaps win?

octoinky

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NFL Discussion, Bets, and Picks Analysis (by Shep)
« Reply #101 on: September 27, 2007, 11:27:00 pm »
I've looked at the schedules for most of the top teams, and have a lot of ideas for the next few weeks lined up already.  


If I were playing for 16 weeks, I wouldn't have taken NE this previous week - I just don't think it was a "wasted" pick is all.

wheatrich

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NFL Discussion, Bets, and Picks Analysis (by Shep)
« Reply #102 on: September 28, 2007, 06:26:00 am »
if the survival league was for $ do you really think I would have said anything?  

Lol at perfect season quest.  You do realize how often you're going to accomplish that right?

"quote from youse Although it's ridiculous to think that Pats will kill the Bills any less b/c of location"

although I'm definitely a high proponent of not believing in home/road advantages as much as others they do exist and I'll make any decent wager with anyone that Buffalo won't lose as much at home as they did at NE.

edit--I hate this week. In the forums I frequent (not just this one ya know)--last week the morons all took Balt/Pitt and this week they're evenly split between two squads I'm evenly split on taking.  Ick!

youseinthehouse

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NFL Discussion, Bets, and Picks Analysis (by Shep)
« Reply #103 on: September 28, 2007, 01:09:00 pm »
Bragging rights are as good as money around these parts =P

Yes, I'm not saying I have any kind of good chance at a perfect year.  I'm just saying, that's what I'm shooting for, and I'm making my decisions accordingly.

Ngamer

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NFL Discussion, Bets, and Picks Analysis (by Shep)
« Reply #104 on: September 30, 2007, 02:35:00 am »
Ngamer's Bet - Week Four
Packers over the Vikings by 3+ points
* Risking $5 to win $5.75

NFL YTD: +$2.30

Go Pack!
thengamer. com

wheatrich

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NFL Discussion, Bets, and Picks Analysis (by Shep)
« Reply #105 on: September 30, 2007, 12:26:00 pm »
*curses at not getting STL +650 or Kansas State ML from yesterday*

ajbownes

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NFL Discussion, Bets, and Picks Analysis (by Shep)
« Reply #106 on: September 30, 2007, 06:59:00 pm »
Before this week I was 24th in the Fans of Arizona(I'm not an Arizona fan btw) league. Brought in Dwayne Bowe (doing alright-ish:rollin ) and Dallas Clark so as you can imagine I'm feeling pretty pleased with myself.

I hope Arizona blow this in the last 4 minutes. It's bad enough I'm out of my other survival league because of Atlanta.


TheLegendaryPSR

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NFL Discussion, Bets, and Picks Analysis (by Shep)
« Reply #107 on: October 01, 2007, 09:27:00 am »
"Coach Mariucci, Why do they continue to kick the ball to Devin Hester?"

'nuff said

wheatrich

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NFL Discussion, Bets, and Picks Analysis (by Shep)
« Reply #108 on: October 01, 2007, 10:00:00 am »
or why they continued to do so after he almost broke 2 for TD's earlier (before breaking one later).  Only Norv Turner's been smart enough not to kick to him so far.  (hester does fumble a lot but still damn)  Despite the lack of discipline (with god awful penalties) horrible QB, horrible RB (benson can't break one [censored] tackle (I haven't seen him break one yet btw--not a joke)), WR's not catching the ball, and the secondary starting people I've never heard of they still should have beaten detroit.  They still should beat Green Bay next week.  If Griese doesn't throw all of his 3 horrible INT's this time (slash horrible throws that didn't get picked) they probably will.

As to why they kick the ball to Hester it's purely stupid ego and football has a lot of it.

Jimbo

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NFL Discussion, Bets, and Picks Analysis (by Shep)
« Reply #109 on: October 01, 2007, 12:50:00 pm »
Oh my God you're a worse Bears fan then I am a Packers fan, Bears don't stand a chance next week there Wheat. I'll bet you any amount of money you want that says GB beats Chicago straight up.

TheLegendaryPSR

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NFL Discussion, Bets, and Picks Analysis (by Shep)
« Reply #110 on: October 01, 2007, 01:05:00 pm »
benson broke a few tackles in the opening game. in fact, they had quite a bit of trouble bringing him down on a few occasions

the bears, the way they are playing at the moment, will not beat green bay. logically, and as you are a fan of one of the teams, logic doesn't apply(that's not a personal shot at you BTW :)   ), they don't stand a chance at the moment. of course they will win now i've said that... :)  

right now i can't see the bears making it to the playoffs. unfortunately, can't see the chargers doing it either.

watching the nflnetwork's top ten plays(Which i do first thing when i wake up on a monday...afternoon) hosted by the great deion sanders, i only have one other thing left to say...

"OSI!"

wheatrich

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NFL Discussion, Bets, and Picks Analysis (by Shep)
« Reply #111 on: October 01, 2007, 03:11:00 pm »
Jimbo--the oddsmakers will make GB a pretty good fav and the squares will bet on GB making (thus I won't be betting you straight up) what I think should be a very profitable bet on chicago next week for many reasons.

A) Chicago can't throw 3 absolute crippling INT's every week (theoretically)
B) Favre usually throws at least 2 against chicago and GB has the rushing attack of a gnat.
C) Green Bay isn't as good as their record
D) Chicago isn't as bad as their record
(record or perception)

The only question I have regarding the game is the fact the defense keeps getting worn down in the fourth quarter--Det scored the NFL record 34 (20 wasn't their fault though) on them in the fourth.

Or just go against the public--the last three weeks everyone said SD, Balt, Denver were "locks".  I'm hoping and thinking it'll be GB this week.

btw--two years ago chicago started 1-3 and finished 11-5 winning the north division.  They've got GB, Min and Det in the next 4 weeks--so we'll know for sure if they can come back after that.

Maybe I'm just royally mad they keep losing games they should have won even despite the QB.

TheLegendaryPSR

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NFL Discussion, Bets, and Picks Analysis (by Shep)
« Reply #112 on: October 01, 2007, 03:23:00 pm »
A) You're forgetting about the fumbles
B) 1. just because it happened before, it doesn't mean it will happen again(a mistake so many sports journalists makes) and 2. Yeah, Green Bay's running attack is crap. However Chicago's strength is their run defence(watching the games you notice that the pass D is not all that impressive), so that means that GB's strength is going against Chicago's weakness
C) Yeah they pretty much are. They have played pretty well in all their victories
D) Yeah they pretty much are again. The team is barely one dimensional and, even then, that 1D is their return guy and, like last season, have had a habit of throwing away games that they were winning

Quote
Quote:
btw--two years ago chicago started 1-3 and finished 11-5 winning the north division.


yeah it does happen, didn't carolina go from 1-7 at the start only to lose in the superbowl?


youseinthehouse

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NFL Discussion, Bets, and Picks Analysis (by Shep)
« Reply #113 on: October 01, 2007, 10:24:00 pm »
^ C)  Not true.  They played pretty awful offensively vs. the Eagles, and only won due to not one, but TWO muffed punts.

Jimbo

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NFL Discussion, Bets, and Picks Analysis (by Shep)
« Reply #114 on: October 01, 2007, 10:55:00 pm »
They played horrible against Philly because the team simply wasn't in sync for the opener, that quickly changed @ NYG and they kept that going.

1. They're 4-0 against damn good teams. They beat San Diego which in turn beat Chicago.
2. Our running attack will be much better come Sunday Night.
3. Brian Griese is gonna be throwing to a mean ass defense.
4. Favre is having a career year. If our O line can keep Shawn Merriman absolutely silent, keeping the girls in Chicago down will be easy.

wheatrich

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NFL Discussion, Bets, and Picks Analysis (by Shep)
« Reply #115 on: October 02, 2007, 09:42:00 am »
the bears pass defense was a heck of a lot better than the rush defense in the last game--or did we watch two different games PSR?  I take major offense to calling me a sports journalist as those guys are mostly clueless.  Anyway, that wasn't my argument.  My main argument is that the bears can't be any worse and the packers can't be any better.  Buying low and selling high is the most advantageous situation you can be in.  Why the rest of you all do the reverse baffles me.

Jimbo says it all with

"4. Favre is having a career year. If our O line can keep Shawn Merriman absolutely silent, keeping the girls in Chicago down will be easy."

I believe that's a task even the packers can accomplish!

ajbownes

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NFL Discussion, Bets, and Picks Analysis (by Shep)
« Reply #116 on: October 02, 2007, 11:21:00 am »
Bad week in the pick'ems this week. However:

Brady - 20.52
Addai - 13.30
Gore - 4.05 >:  
R. Moss - 17.10
Branch - 6.50
Bowe - 14.20
Da. Clark - 15.80

Folk - 5.00

NE D - 9.00

Wk 4 Total - 105.47

Fans of Arizona - 4th overall(25th for the week)
Fans from Arizona - 15th overall (38th for the week)

I don't qualify as either by the way. I only picked them cos of their Red Wings kit. :D

Feeling pretty pleased with myself. Came back in my other fantasy to win 103-71 (from 54-71)

TheLegendaryPSR

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NFL Discussion, Bets, and Picks Analysis (by Shep)
« Reply #117 on: October 02, 2007, 11:29:00 am »
Quote
Quote:
the bears pass defense was a heck of a lot better than the rush defense in the last game--or did we watch two different games PSR?


jon kitna threw for 80% against you with no interceptions, and kitna is not a very good QB. he's just getting by on his receivers left over charisma.

meanwhile they didn't manage to run for 100 yards on 23 carries, so yeah, you're run defence is FAR better than your pass defence.

you have a good pass rush, but when it comes to defending the pass, your team is pretty crap

Quote
Quote:
I take major offense to calling me a sports journalist


what i meant was that sports journalists make the mistake that the past matters as well, i wasn't calling you one

wheatrich

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NFL Discussion, Bets, and Picks Analysis (by Shep)
« Reply #118 on: October 03, 2007, 10:00:00 am »
Actually the past is partially irrelevant and you misunderstood my point.  My argument wasn't that the past wouldn't repeat itself but even Rex/Griese aren't likely going to throw the ball to the other team 3 times a game.  (as strange as that sounds right now...)

Kitna got sacked a lot and a bunch of those completions were on stuff like 3rd and 23 where the bears were just letting them complete passes (sidenote--Roy Williams has to learn where the first down markers are lol).  The only good offensive drive Detroit had was in the fourth quarter.  (the other pass TD they started at the chicago 30 or so)  The completion % number is really almost meaningless as there's a huge difference in one yard passes vs ten yard passes.  (also getting sacked doesn't count against that)
10% at completing 10 yard passes=1 yard/throw
90% at completing 1 yard passes=.9 yard/throw

Kevin Jones also did well rushing against Chicago.  Tatum Bell was horrible.  

First one's actually better provided INT ratio (and breakaway ability from the receiver) is the same.

Anyway, ugh at not picking this week in espn pickem or I'd be up 2 games right now.  Oh well only 4 behind... SZ?  :)   I'm so rooting for SZ to win this pickem contest now.  (did everyone just forget that in a dome vs those receivers with no starting secondary/briggs on defense the lions only had 3 points in 3 quarters?)

That said; GB's definitely the favorite this week but all I'm saying is Chicago's got a better shot than all of you think they do.

Jimbo

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NFL Discussion, Bets, and Picks Analysis (by Shep)
« Reply #119 on: October 03, 2007, 04:08:00 pm »
I know damn well Chicago has a great shot at winning, I just so desperately want to go 6-0 into our bye week it's not even funny. I hate Chicago which is why I think they suck and biasedly announce that they have no chance. Oh well.

Edit: Brian Griese sucks, 5-0 here we come!

wishiwasfamous

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NFL Discussion, Bets, and Picks Analysis (by Shep)
« Reply #120 on: October 03, 2007, 08:44:00 pm »
Quote
Quote:
Brian Griese sucks


I agree

/Broncosbias

ShadowZero64

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NFL Discussion, Bets, and Picks Analysis (by Shep)
« Reply #121 on: October 03, 2007, 10:09:00 pm »
Bears sucking again so I'm not renewing my confidence in them for their next game against Packers.

Anyway, looking good so far and hopefully I will be able to keep matching "The Experts" ;)

rshepherd1000

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NFL Discussion, Bets, and Picks Analysis (by Shep)
« Reply #122 on: October 05, 2007, 01:37:00 pm »
just got back from holiday in switzerland. will do the update sometime before the next games

youseinthehouse

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NFL Discussion, Bets, and Picks Analysis (by Shep)
« Reply #123 on: October 05, 2007, 06:05:00 pm »
Survival Pick, Week 5 (Blacked out):


New England over Cleveland.

This is the only thing that feels truly safe (Indy seems like a 95%.  This seems 100% with the way Belichick is saying @#%$ you to everyone in the league, seemingly throwing to Moss already up 20 points late in the 4th quarter every game).  *crosses fingers*
Man, I really wanted to go with Baltimore over SF, but the risk doesn't seem worth the reward.  Even though Alex Smith and Vernon Davis out, I'm still wary due to Baltimore's awful play this year.  I mean they lost by 2 TDs to cleveland last week, anything can happen.

There, I picked NE.  You guys happy?


So far, I've used SEA, DEN, PIT, DAL, and NE.

Jimbo

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NFL Discussion, Bets, and Picks Analysis (by Shep)
« Reply #124 on: October 06, 2007, 12:42:00 am »
Wheat, can I just have my $100 now?

rshepherd1000

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NFL Discussion, Bets, and Picks Analysis (by Shep)
« Reply #125 on: October 07, 2007, 04:45:00 am »
Elite Pickem

Elite Pickem - Week 4

Week 4 was just appalling. I mean does it get any more ridic than this?

1 Kelly Rules - 9
2 Din Mor - 8
PDO's Perfect Picks - 8

Just a shocking set of results all round. Kelly Rules wins again with 9 correct whilst Jim and PDO return a respectable 8. Most of the heavyweights had 4-5 correct and wheat had a truly dreadful 1. Thats how bad the results were

Jim vs Fal - Jim wins again to go 4-0 up.

Elite Pickem - Overall

Overall things just get more hilarious

1 QB's Square Picks - 39
Din Mor - 39
PerfectLight - 39
Boss - 39
5 mikerspd - 38
Woll - 38
PDO's Perfect Picks - 38

You know the season is comical when the likes of QB and Jim are in a tie for first. Joining them are PL and Boss. Mikers, Woll and PDO are one back in a tie for fifth.

Elite Pickem - Win Table

For the first time since Week 1 we have an outright leader as Kelly Rules pulls away from the pack with his second win!

1 Kelly Rules - 2
2 Esox Magnus - 1
PerfectLight - 1
Din Mor - 1
wiff's ownage picks - 1


Elite Spread Pickem

Elite Spread Pickem - Week 4

Impressively we have a better score at the top this week for the spread pickem than non-spread. Ptown Boners and QB top it off with 10.

1 Ptown Boners - 10
QB's Pro Bets - 10
3 mikerspd's poopy picks - 9
4 Boss - 8
Moo Moo Farm - 8
Belt of Utility - 8
matt8000 ftw - 8

Elite Spread Pickem - Overall

Capitalising on their weekly performance Ptwon and QB pull away at the top of the leaderboard, now 2 ahead of the next best challenger Boss in third.

1 Ptown Boners - 33
QB's Pro Bets - 33
3 Boss - 31
4 ngamer whackers - 30
5 DarkHawk's Picks - 29
Moo Moo Farm - 29


Elite Survival

Elite Survival - Week 4

Well we lost a TON of people this week. unsuprising really given the comedy results. Steelers, Chargers and Texans all let a variety of people down and the field has been trimmed considerably. Seven plus Youse remain to go into week 5!

Still in: Team Angle, boss killers, Octo's Survival Picks, matt8000 ftw, mostfrantic, Ptown Boners, Topes
Babysitting: Crossbow of Paradigm
Eliminated: Boss(1), Clark(1), QB(1), Milano(2), Come(2), Better Than Ngamer(3), Kelly Rules(3), The Immortal Ones(4), Ng's Supersurvivors!(4), Neo's Aussie Picks(4), mikerspd manhandlers(4), Moo Moo Farm(4)

rshepherd1000

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NFL Discussion, Bets, and Picks Analysis (by Shep)
« Reply #126 on: October 07, 2007, 04:47:00 am »
dont forget those

picks!

octoinky

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NFL Discussion, Bets, and Picks Analysis (by Shep)
« Reply #127 on: October 07, 2007, 04:15:00 pm »
What a scary TEN game.. but I'm through another week in Survival baby!  Looks like 6/7 will be moving on.

Quiet Bol

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NFL Discussion, Bets, and Picks Analysis (by Shep)
« Reply #128 on: October 08, 2007, 11:34:00 pm »
Sunday Evening

GoldenJimbo007 (6:48:44 PM): Same 4 teams will be 5-0 after this weekend :-(
CieloAzor (6:48:54 PM): uh, don't count on it, Jim
GoldenJimbo007 (6:50:33 PM): I have a very hard time believing Chicago has a real chance.

:rollin

Boss

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NFL Discussion, Bets, and Picks Analysis (by Shep)
« Reply #129 on: October 09, 2007, 12:04:00 am »
Jimbowned.

TheLegendaryPSR

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NFL Discussion, Bets, and Picks Analysis (by Shep)
« Reply #130 on: October 09, 2007, 09:09:00 am »
well, at least i finished on 12. was really worried when i went to bed(it was half 4) in the dallas match

ShadowZero64

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NFL Discussion, Bets, and Picks Analysis (by Shep)
« Reply #131 on: October 09, 2007, 09:52:00 am »
While it's fun that Jimbo's team lost, it's less fun that those gay bears finally won :/

Quiet Bol

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NFL Discussion, Bets, and Picks Analysis (by Shep)
« Reply #132 on: October 09, 2007, 02:06:00 pm »
I realize this doesn't prove anything since I'm posting it after the fact, but it's pretty sick so I wanted to brag about it anyway. I rarely bother, but I grabbed a pen at around 7 EST Sunday and predicted the betting lines for the next week.

TeamzzzPredicted linezzzActual line

Bal zzzzzzzz-10zzzzzzzzzz -10
Chi zzzzzzzz-6zzzzzzzzzzzz -6
TB zzzzzzzzz-2 zzzzzzzzzzz-3 (+110) (obv guarding against teasers by not offering lines from 1.5 to 2.5)
Cle zzzzzzzz-6.5zzzzzzzzzz -5
Phi zzzzzzzz-3zzzzzzzzzzz -3
GB zzzzzzzzz-3 zzzzzzzzzzz-3
Cin zzzzzzzz-1zzzzzzzzzzz -3
Jax zzzzzzzz-7zzzzzzzzzzz -7
Ari zzzzzzzz-3zzzzzzzzzzz -3.5
SD zzzzzzzz-10zzzzzzzzzz -10.5
NE zzzzzzzz-5zzzzzzzzzzz -5
Sea zzzzzzz-7zzzzzzzzzzz -6.5
NYG zzzzzzz-4 zzzzzzzzzzz-3.5

Maybe a bit of a fluke but I'll see if I can keep it up next week. :hat

rshepherd1000

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NFL Discussion, Bets, and Picks Analysis (by Shep)
« Reply #133 on: October 10, 2007, 04:35:00 am »
Elite Pickem

Elite Pickem - Week 5

Back to normality this week as things look to be settling down. Those one dimensional horrors the packers finally lost, but not as spectacularly as their equally predictable lions. Those who managed to get the most value out of the week were:

1 darthrob64 - 12
Esox Magnus - 12
Come - 12
Neo's Aussie Picks - 12
milano collection RB - 12
The Immortal Ones - 12

Thats right, a SIX way tie for 1st with 12 correct picks! And picking was so easy this week that pretty much everybody else scored 11 or 10. Really nothing interesting therefore to say, except Neo is there with a share of the lead - first time ever?

Jim vs Fal - Jim with yet another shutout to go up 5-0 in the series. Fal really has his work cut out already!

Elite Pickem - Overall

What does this mean overall?

1 QB's Square Picks - 50
2 Esox Magnus - 49
Din Mor - 49
PerfectLight - 49
Boss - 49
The Immortal Ones - 49

Well the elites generally good performance this week meant that collectively our group has rocketed back up the percentiles where we belong. Unfortunately what doesnt belong is QB sitting at the top with 50 picks. however we've been here many times before early in the season and if theres one thing you can rely on more than a Favre int, its a QB pickem implosion. A five way tie for second includes a few heavyweights and Jim - whose performances are starting to get the crowd talking! Could we really have a new contender here?

Elite Pickem - Win Table

The gigiantic tie for first this week means the win table has expanded a lot. Most notable is the second appearance for ngamer far - who now shares the lead with the hit or miss Kelly Rules.

1 Kelly Rules - 2
Esox Magnus - 2
2 PerfectLight - 1
Din Mor - 1
wiff's ownage picks - 1
darthrob64 - 1
Come - 1
Neo's Aussie Picks - 1
milano collection RB - 1
The Immortal Ones - 1


Elite Spread Pickem

Elite Spread Pickem - Week 5

Well yeah. I guess I did good this week :p   Although even with such a straightforward week the scores were lower than the money line picks. Clark and Neo also score highly. The real question is where is Clark in the normal Pickem???

1 Team Angle - 11
2 Clark Kills - 9
2 Neo's Aussie Picks - 9

Elite Spread Pickem - Overall

QB now in the sole lead as the field is starting to spread out.

1 QB's Pro Bets - 41
2 Ptown Boners - 39
3 ngamer whackers - 38
4 Boss - 36
Team Angle - 36
6 Moo Moo Farm - 35


Elite Survival

Elite Survival - Week 5

A pretty convincing exit for matt8000 as the Lions got nothing going against the Redskins. The rest chose a variet of the Colts, Pats, Tits and Cards.

6+1 Remain. Who will be eliminated this week?

Still in: Team Angle, boss killers, Octo's Survival Picks, mostfrantic, Ptown Boners, Topes
Babysitting: Crossbow of Paradigm
Eliminated: Boss(1), Clark(1), QB(1), Milano(2), Come(2), Better Than Ngamer(3), Kelly Rules(3), The Immortal Ones(4), Ng's Supersurvivors!(4), Neo's Aussie Picks(4), mikerspd manhandlers(4), Moo Moo Farm(4), matt8000 ftw(5)

rshepherd1000

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NFL Discussion, Bets, and Picks Analysis (by Shep)
« Reply #134 on: October 10, 2007, 04:36:00 am »
Its not to early for week 6 predictions so dont forget those

picks!

wheatrich

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NFL Discussion, Bets, and Picks Analysis (by Shep)
« Reply #135 on: October 10, 2007, 02:21:00 pm »
ugh, a lot of ugly lines in spread this week.  Must of been why Q guessed them ;)

youseinthehouse

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NFL Discussion, Bets, and Picks Analysis (by Shep)
« Reply #136 on: October 10, 2007, 03:05:00 pm »
Quote
Quote:
if theres one thing you can rely on more than a Favre int, its a QB pickem implosion


QFT, and hilarity.

Do I really need to be listed in a separate category?  I'm listing my picks each week, there's no babysitting going on!  It was YAHOO!'s fault, I swear I went in and made my pick that week!

NE -5, lol.  I think I will bet...

rshepherd1000

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NFL Discussion, Bets, and Picks Analysis (by Shep)
« Reply #137 on: October 12, 2007, 06:42:00 am »
if you make it through this week ill reinstate you, although you ARE still a hassle :p

octoinky

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NFL Discussion, Bets, and Picks Analysis (by Shep)
« Reply #138 on: October 12, 2007, 01:33:00 pm »
Without looking at who has already used certain teams, I'm going to say 4-5 of 7 of us will use the team I used...


Assuming no upsets this week and we've still got a handful in next week, next week looks a lot harder for survival!

youseinthehouse

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NFL Discussion, Bets, and Picks Analysis (by Shep)
« Reply #139 on: October 12, 2007, 07:19:00 pm »
Wow, really tough choice for me this week with Indy on a Bye...  (pick/thoughts in black, so don't check it until you've picked!):

It's gotta be between Philly (an absolutely putrid team without westbrook [top 3 backs in the league], who IS starting this week... who knows his overall role though), Arizona, and Chicago (with a slight nod to Cincy)...

I really don't want to rest my survival season on the shoulders of Brian Griese (would much prefer Rex playing), and the Bears are as shaky as any team right now, HOWEVER, getting the vikings at home is as good a time as any to finally rid myself of having to think about the bears in the future for survival.  Arizona sounds good, I know they're gaining a lot of momentum in sleeper talk, and Carolina should go down easy for them.  I dont' want to "waste" Philly, and by that I don't mean the Eagles are legit, I mean that they still get to play Buffalo and Miami later on, (one of them at home maybe?).  So mental coinflip for CHI/ARI...

My pick is CHICAGO.  I want to get them out of my hair and hopefully their momentum from beating rival #1 keeps going to rival #(2 or 3?  Wheat?).  Arizona has some more creampuff games later on, and this week I'll see how they handle what should be a victory.

Note:  This is the biggest limb I've been on so far imhhhhhhhho

Note2:  Giants would be a nice pick vs CRAPlanta, but both of those teams are just kind of giant balls of unpredictability, so nope.



So my picks thus far are SEA, DEN, PIT, DAL, NE, and CHI

Ngamer

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NFL Discussion, Bets, and Picks Analysis (by Shep)
« Reply #140 on: October 13, 2007, 01:30:00 pm »
Ngamer's Bet - Week Five
Wisconsin over Penn St straight up
* Risking $5 to win $10.50

NFL YTD: +$8.05

Go Badgers!
thengamer. com

TheLegendaryPSR

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NFL Discussion, Bets, and Picks Analysis (by Shep)
« Reply #141 on: October 13, 2007, 02:01:00 pm »
i'd much rather have griese than rex. i think it might be risky picking chicago(although i personally would use philly for miami and not for buffalo). peterson is going to be a top 3 back in the league(by the start of next season at the latest) and they will probably just pass him the ball a lot

Quiet Bol

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NFL Discussion, Bets, and Picks Analysis (by Shep)
« Reply #142 on: October 14, 2007, 01:32:00 am »
Chicago Bears -5 now? Really? I'll have to make this my...



Bet it if you like money!

Quiet Bol

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NFL Discussion, Bets, and Picks Analysis (by Shep)
« Reply #143 on: October 14, 2007, 04:11:00 pm »
Need a late night save? Look for Saints +7 if you can find it, because that's my...



Go go go! Don't worry, this time I HAS LOCKS.

TheLegendaryPSR

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NFL Discussion, Bets, and Picks Analysis (by Shep)
« Reply #144 on: October 14, 2007, 04:21:00 pm »
like i said, just give peterson the ball a lot :)  

on a side note, on prime time's top 10 plays of the week, deion will once again ask

"coach mariucci, why do they continue to kick the ball to devin hester?"

there are some really dumb coaches at the moment.

youseinthehouse

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NFL Discussion, Bets, and Picks Analysis (by Shep)
« Reply #145 on: October 15, 2007, 12:01:00 am »
:( , bye bye survival!  Thanks a lot, you shitty ass bears... some monsters of the midway YOUR defense turned out to be.  so you can beat the packers at lambeau  but can't handle the vikings AT home whilst scoring >30 points???  hester doesn't deserve this [psst... trade him to the eagles before the deadline]

Should have picked my home team, damn it!

Made a ton of cash on NE -5, loooooooooooooooooool

mikerspd

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NFL Discussion, Bets, and Picks Analysis (by Shep)
« Reply #146 on: October 15, 2007, 12:07:00 pm »
Umm, yeah at the NE -5. :p

And holy @#%$ matt, I had seen you were perfect through the morning, but I certainly didn't expect you had picked NO as well.  Only 8 people left with perfects in ESPN for the week, and a NY blowout will give you the win.  Good luck!

Neo

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NFL Discussion, Bets, and Picks Analysis (by Shep)
« Reply #147 on: October 16, 2007, 01:47:00 am »
Congratulations to Matt who had a PERFECT WEEK!

matt8k

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NFL Discussion, Bets, and Picks Analysis (by Shep)
« Reply #148 on: October 16, 2007, 03:21:00 am »
Thanks. I *could* say that it was all down to my skill, but I'm still a n00b when it comes to NFL.
This'll make up for the lower scores that I've been getting for the last month!
Frigate doesn't complete in Melbourne 

octoinky

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NFL Discussion, Bets, and Picks Analysis (by Shep)
« Reply #149 on: October 16, 2007, 01:04:00 pm »
Taking my percentile (80%) times rank (60,000) means 20%=60,000, or 100% = 300,000.  So I guess there are ~300,000 entries on ESPN Pick'em.  Granted, not all predicted this previous week, but STILL!


Only 8 people predicted all 13 matches correctly
1 had a perfect tiebreaker.
Matt8000 finished 3rd in tiebreaker.



Great work!  Really cool to see you up there - I remember a few years back seeing wheatrich on the march madness overall leaderboard with a great shot - but his GT didn't pull through.