Author Topic: NFL Discussion, Bets, and Picks Analysis (by Shep)  (Read 10826 times)

wheatrich

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NFL Discussion, Bets, and Picks Analysis (by Shep)
« Reply #150 on: October 16, 2007, 03:19:00 pm »
GT's star guard was injured in game 1 of that tournament (played later but wasn't even close to 100%).  Obviously wouldn't have taken them to go all the way at that point (and possibly not even to the champ game so...)
Anyway, way to go matt.

rshepherd1000

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NFL Discussion, Bets, and Picks Analysis (by Shep)
« Reply #151 on: October 17, 2007, 05:17:00 am »
Elite Pickem

Elite Pickem - Week 6

Well lets get right to it. As has been mentioned already the Elite had a very special week as matt8000 not only got a perfect set of picks but almost won the entire week!

Here is the Week 6 Overall leaderboard tiebreaker situation:

loner Entry1 - 31-10
Franson Frickn Pickn - 32-10
matt8000 ftw - 38-7
Goff - 23-13
1 Pink 2 Stink - 28-21
packalova - 27-21
CC Alyg8tr - 0-0
Capps Entry2 - 0-0

Thats right only EIGHT people in the entire pickem world got 13 correct picks last week. Lets put that in perspective - Fal, who is by far the worst eliter at pickem, is ranked ~230,000th overall.

Matt finished 3rd out out of the 8 based on tiebreaker strength. loner nailed it SPOT ON with 31-10, but quite frankly he should be disqualified for being a complete noob that has 'Entry1' in his name. What a loser. Franson was just 1 point off and Matt 10. Well that was just an awesome performance by Matt. Well done sir!

No prizes for guessing who finished top of the elite league last week...

1 matt8000 ftw - 13
2 QB's Square Picks - 10
milano collection RB - 10

It shouldnt really go unnoticed that this was no straightforward week either. Many of the elites renowned pickers didnt score highly at all. Matt finished 3 ahead of second placed QB/RB who fluked/accurately researched 10 picks.

Jim vs Fal - Jim goes up 6-0 in the series. When this one is over we'll switch to Jim vs QB. In fact I may just do that from next week since Fal isnt really worth anyones time on this :p  


Elite Pickem - Overall

Well matt took a huge leap up the board but not enough to get a mention:

1 QB's Square Picks - 60
2 Din Mor - 58
Boss - 58

QB retains the top spot with 60 picks and a 2 point lead over Jim/Boss who have 58. One interesting fact that illustrates how truly horrible QB is at pickem is that he stil has yet to register a weekly win, despite his overall position. I mean just how are we supposed to take the guy seriously? Which brings us onto..

Elite Pickem - Win Table

No change at the top but matt8000 joins the pack tieing for 3rd.

1 Kelly Rules - 2
Esox Magnus - 2
2 PerfectLight - 1
Din Mor - 1
wiff's ownage picks - 1
darthrob64 - 1
Come - 1
Neo's Aussie Picks - 1
milano collection RB - 1
The Immortal Ones - 1
matt8000 ftw -


Elite Spread Pickem

Elite Spread Pickem - Week 6

Im gonna boycott yahoo spread pickem next year because the weekly leaderboard format is so retarded. Theres only so much time I can pretend to be working here before someone realises Im actually writing an elite pickem wrapup, and quite frankly I could do without the additional 2344242 hour reformatting nonsense required thanks to yanoob.

1 DarkHawk's Picks - 7
Milano Collection RB - 7
The Immortal Ones - 7
Octo's Spread Picks - 7

A pretty dreadful performance relative to the pickem totals sees a four way tie for first on 7 picks.

Elite Spread Pickem - Overall

None of this affects overall however as QB stays in the lead.

1 QB's Pro Bets - 46
2 ngamer whackerss - 43
Ptown Bonerss - 43
4 Bosss - 42
5 Team Angles - 40


Elite Survival

Elite Survival - Week 6

Well there goes boss killers and Youse, who picked Seattle and Chicago respectively. That leaves us with just five remaining survivors!

Who will be elimnated next?

Still in: Team Angle, Octo's Survival Picks, mostfrantic, Ptown Boners, Topes
Eliminated: Boss(1), Clark(1), QB(1), Milano(2), Come(2), Better Than Ngamer(3), Kelly Rules(3), The Immortal Ones(4), Ng's Supersurvivors!(4), Neo's Aussie Picks(4), mikerspd manhandlers(4), Moo Moo Farm(4), matt8000 ftw(5), boss killers(6), Crossbow of Paradigm(6)

matt8k

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NFL Discussion, Bets, and Picks Analysis (by Shep)
« Reply #152 on: October 19, 2007, 12:52:00 am »
Looking back at my fast rise up the-elite ladder, it just goes to show how close the competition is this year.
One good week, and someone could rise from 20th to the top 10, maybe even 5!
Frigate doesn't complete in Melbourne 

Ngamer

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NFL Discussion, Bets, and Picks Analysis (by Shep)
« Reply #153 on: October 21, 2007, 04:26:00 am »
Ngamer's Bet - Week Seven
Bucs over Lions straight up
* Risking $5 to win $6.35

NFL YTD: +$3.05

Go Bucs!
thengamer. com

TheLegendaryPSR

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NFL Discussion, Bets, and Picks Analysis (by Shep)
« Reply #154 on: October 22, 2007, 06:36:00 am »
we'll ignore that greg olsen (once again) got away with a push off in the end zone and go straight to me topping the spread pick'em for the 2nd week in a row

MilaColle on a roll! :)

TheLegendaryPSR

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NFL Discussion, Bets, and Picks Analysis (by Shep)
« Reply #155 on: October 22, 2007, 04:43:00 pm »
right now i'd bet everything i own on the dolphins finishing 0-16

Quiet Bol

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NFL Discussion, Bets, and Picks Analysis (by Shep)
« Reply #156 on: October 22, 2007, 08:10:00 pm »
Okay, I'll put up everything I own against everything you own. Cleo Lemon will be rolling to a win sooner rather than later!

youseinthehouse

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NFL Discussion, Bets, and Picks Analysis (by Shep)
« Reply #157 on: October 22, 2007, 10:05:00 pm »
QB, all you own is a pair of pants and my heart... not sure if he'll bite.

wishiwasfamous

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NFL Discussion, Bets, and Picks Analysis (by Shep)
« Reply #158 on: October 23, 2007, 01:11:00 am »
yeah, go garrard!

TheLegendaryPSR

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NFL Discussion, Bets, and Picks Analysis (by Shep)
« Reply #159 on: October 23, 2007, 11:23:00 am »
a new pair of pants would be nice :)

ShadowZero64

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NFL Discussion, Bets, and Picks Analysis (by Shep)
« Reply #160 on: October 23, 2007, 04:33:00 pm »
Steelers losing was pretty ridic.

Oh well, a pretty solid week anyway.

wishiwasfamous

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NFL Discussion, Bets, and Picks Analysis (by Shep)
« Reply #161 on: October 23, 2007, 06:38:00 pm »
Picking the Steelers @Denver was pretty ridic.

rshepherd1000

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NFL Discussion, Bets, and Picks Analysis (by Shep)
« Reply #162 on: October 24, 2007, 04:48:00 am »
Elite Pickem

Elite Pickem - Week 7

The standard of picking seems to be really improving now as we had another excellent performance this week:

1 Octo's Picks - 12
2 wiff's ownage picks - 11
*Whooooooosh* - 11
The Immortal Ones - 11

Not quite the perfect but Octo appears out of NOWHERE to dominate with 12 correct picks. Scoring highly but falling short of the top were wiff, comet and aj with 11 and a tie for second place. Many many of rest managed 10 or 9 picks so we did pretty good overall.

Jim vs ... Fal has been sacked for poor performance and thus we've had to draft in a replacement. Its difficult to find someone who matches up well with Jim in terms of equal NFL knowledge and quite frankly Im hesitant as to whether this new competitor has the skillset that SZ clearly possesses. Nevertheless we'll give him a chance as the results thus far show we may have a good battle on our hands here. Thus Im pleased to announce Fal's substitue is none other than .... QB!

Jim vs QB - Well we missed weeks 1-6 but let me tell you that its been very close. After the week 7 predictions came in the score in this series is now 4-3 QB. Can Jim tie it up in week 8? Watch this space

Elite Pickem - Overall

Overall we are now tied three-way at the top!

1 QB's Square Picks - 68
Din Mor - 68
The Immortal Ones - 68
4 Esox Magnus - 67
Boss - 67
milano collection RB - 67

That pair QB and Jim are not only battling it out for chatroom supremacy but also the overall leadership as they are tied with AJ on 68 correct picks. None of them can be happy seeing Boss just 1 behind with 67 correct. Boss has been there and done it before, can the rabble at the top hold him off for another week?

Elite Pickem - Win Table

Octo is the latest addition to the bottom of the table

1 Kelly Rules - 2
Esox Magnus - 2
2 PerfectLight - 1
Din Mor - 1
wiff's ownage picks - 1
darthrob64 - 1
Come - 1
Neo's Aussie Picks - 1
milano collection RB - 1
The Immortal Ones - 1
matt8000 ftw - 1
Octo's Picks - 1


Elite Spread Pickem

Elite Spread Pickem - Week 7

Yahoo is the worst therefore I am just going to report weekly winner here, and this week it was none other than:

1 Milano Collection RB - 11

11 picks is a very credible return for spread pickem. Double figures is a rare sight

Elite Spread Pickem - Overall

QB retains the overall lead by three. The weekly swings in individual scores are reasonably large so there is plenty of opportunity for the leadership picture to change completely in the space of 1 week.

1 QB's Pro Bets - 54
2 Ptown Boners - 51
3 Milano Collection RB - 49
ngamer whackers - 49
Boss - 49


Elite Survival

Elite Survival - Week 7

Ptown boners is gone! Pitt just couldnt get the job done meaning there are now only FOUR left!

Who will be elimnated next?

Still in: Team Angle, Octo's Survival Picks, mostfrantic, Topes
Eliminated: Boss(1), Clark(1), QB(1), Milano(2), Come(2), Better Than Ngamer(3), Kelly Rules(3), The Immortal Ones(4), Ng's Supersurvivors!(4), Neo's Aussie Picks(4), mikerspd manhandlers(4), Moo Moo Farm(4), matt8000 ftw(5), boss killers(6), Crossbow of Paradigm(6), Ptown Boners (7)

TheLegendaryPSR

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NFL Discussion, Bets, and Picks Analysis (by Shep)
« Reply #163 on: October 29, 2007, 10:49:00 am »
My missed pick this week(chicago/detroit) would've been chicago anyway so it didn't make a difference

rshepherd1000

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NFL Discussion, Bets, and Picks Analysis (by Shep)
« Reply #164 on: October 31, 2007, 05:13:00 am »
Having some trouble this week with espn site generating internal errors when trying to access my picks. Ill try again later but I cant do the writeup until its fixed - I assume its down for everyone else too?

Quiet Bol

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NFL Discussion, Bets, and Picks Analysis (by Shep)
« Reply #165 on: November 01, 2007, 05:17:00 pm »
#11 VT @ GT (a team that didn't receive a single vote for any set of rankings)

GT -2.5? Sounds good to me! In fact, let's call it my...



Easy money, IMO!

ShadowZero64

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NFL Discussion, Bets, and Picks Analysis (by Shep)
« Reply #166 on: November 01, 2007, 08:48:00 pm »
I @#%$ hate Chicago.

When I have them winning they lose, while when I have them losing they win.

What a @#%$ piece of @#%$ team >:

wheatrich

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NFL Discussion, Bets, and Picks Analysis (by Shep)
« Reply #167 on: November 02, 2007, 06:59:00 pm »
heh Q I saw the GT line and thought it was the biggest mistake in lines I've seen all year--and it clearly was.  Why I didn't put a gazillion units down on VT I don't know* :( .  Helps to actually have seen both teams play to know how bad GT really was.

* actually I do know--I'm quite a nit when it comes to money thanks to being in a midwest conservative type house--and it's cost me quite a bit of money over my life (first example was UPS stock during the 94 strike) and I know it'll continue to do so.

double lol at SZ whining about NFL picks when he currently leads the league.

Ngamer

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NFL Discussion, Bets, and Picks Analysis (by Shep)
« Reply #168 on: November 02, 2007, 08:04:00 pm »
Ngamer's Bet - Week Eight
The Colts/Pats matchup in Week Nine will NOT be a battle of two undefeated teams
* Risking $5 to win $10.00

NFL YTD: -$2.05

It seemed like a good idea at the time!
thengamer. com

wheatrich

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NFL Discussion, Bets, and Picks Analysis (by Shep)
« Reply #169 on: November 03, 2007, 03:44:00 pm »
edit--I'm confused I thought ngamer was taking the colts this week... anyway this line was the most interesting this week to me

2008 Early Super Bowl XLII Line @ Glendale, AZ

All wagers have action. No Parlays. Max $600
NFC
       
+16 (-115)
AFC
       
-16 (-115)

I bet NE -6 this week.  I had a bad week 2 weeks ago and really curtailed my bets (of course I would have done awesome last week sigh).

Jimbo

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NFL Discussion, Bets, and Picks Analysis (by Shep)
« Reply #170 on: November 03, 2007, 05:36:00 pm »
Personally I feel NE is going to win this game by 10 or more, and am strongly considering dropping $100 to any eliter who wants to bet, or a website (wagerline) I just found a few days ago. As for the Packer game...Packers +/-0, any takers?

rshepherd1000

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NFL Discussion, Bets, and Picks Analysis (by Shep)
« Reply #171 on: November 04, 2007, 02:11:00 pm »
Elite Pickem

Elite Pickem - Week 8

A mega tie at the top this week.

1 sucram - 12
Ng's Superpicks! - 12
Din Mor - 12
Larkin - 12
5 Come - 11
BrewCity Blitzed - 11
milano collection RB - 11

The overall standard really does seem to be improving after a rocky start. Four way tie for the lead with Sucram ,Jon, Jim and Lark sharing the lead with an excellent 12 picks. Come and friends post a steady score of 11.

Jim vs QB - Jim dominated this week to tie up the series at 4-4. This is quite a streak hes putting together on QB - can he now pull into the lead?

Elite Pickem - Overall

Overall...

1 Din Mor - 80
2 milano collection RB - 78
The Immortal Ones - 78
4 QB's Square Picks - 77
Esox Magnus - 77

Jim takes the lead following his monster week and unbelievably is 2 ahead of the rest!

Elite Pickem - Win Table

Several additions this week. Jims win however puts him on 2 and a share for the weekly leaderboard first place.

1 Kelly Rules - 2
Esox Magnus - 2
Din Mor - 2
3 PerfectLight - 1
wiff's ownage picks - 1
darthrob64 - 1
Come - 1
Neo's Aussie Picks - 1
milano collection RB - 1
The Immortal Ones - 1
matt8000 ftw - 1
Octo's Picks - 1
sucram - 1
Ng's Superpicks! - 1
Larkin - 1

Elite Spread Pickem

Elite Spread Pickem - Week 8

Joint winners this week with 11 picks. 11 is a very respectable score in the spread this year.

1 Milano Collection RB - 11
ngamer whackers - 11

11 picks is a very credible return for spread pickem. Double figures is a rare sight

Elite Spread Pickem - Overall

And theres that huge swing I was talking about as QB plummets. That three pick lead has now evaporated as Mr Ptown takes over at the top.

1 Ptown Boners - 61
2 Milano Collection RB - 60
ngamer whackers - 60
QB's Pro Bets - 60
5 Boss - 58


Elite Survival

Elite Survival - Week 8

Everyone survived last week so still 4 remain. Can we all make it through another gameday?

Still in: Team Angle, Octo's Survival Picks, mostfrantic, Topes
Eliminated: Boss(1), Clark(1), QB(1), Milano(2), Come(2), Better Than Ngamer(3), Kelly Rules(3), The Immortal Ones(4), Ng's Supersurvivors!(4), Neo's Aussie Picks(4), mikerspd manhandlers(4), Moo Moo Farm(4), matt8000 ftw(5), boss killers(6), Crossbow of Paradigm(6), Ptown Boners (7)

rshepherd1000

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NFL Discussion, Bets, and Picks Analysis (by Shep)
« Reply #172 on: November 04, 2007, 02:13:00 pm »
with 45 mins to go make sure you dont forget those

picks!

rshepherd1000

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NFL Discussion, Bets, and Picks Analysis (by Shep)
« Reply #173 on: November 07, 2007, 11:36:00 am »
Elite Pickem

Elite Pickem - Week 9

Another week of solid picking:

1 Boss - 12
Woll - 12
2 Poteau Jedi - 11
mikerspd - 11
The Immortal Ones - 11

Boss is on the move! 12 picks sees him share the weekly win with that man Woll. Nate/mikers/AJ finish with a respectable 11.

Pick breakdown (winner in bold):

Pants 4 Tits 20 - Yeah I was one of the noobs that backed the pants. I guess they really dropped off when delhomme got hurt - just as Smith has in my fantasy team >:    
Cards 1 Bucs 23 - C:lol     me
Skins 21 Jets 3 - yet another embarassment for me picking the Jets
Jax 10 Saints 14 - First of the venly split games. many of the big names went with Jax only to be let down once again.
Chargers 24 Vikes 0 - well NOONE got this right
Niners 14 Falcs 10 - Im proud to say I called this one correctly, as did Jim, QB, wheat etc, Jon didnt :)     ?
Pack 18 Chiefs 6 - Really dont understand how pack keep winning, and several of the notoriety seemed to agree on this
Broncos 7 Lions 17 - Well wiff obviously screwed up here, but whats Octos excuse?
Bengals 10 Bills 14 - This was a relatively poor pick by me again. Im still suprised how bad the Bengals are doing this year, but that d is pretty awful.
Sealobsters 12 Browns 12 - Woll gets no credit for this pick and thus we'll make Boss the honorary outright winner of the week.
Pats 21 Colts 3 - If I asked you to guess 2 of the 3 offenders youd probably be confident of getting them right. Newsflash: NEO BACKED THE PATS.
Texans 11 Raiders 13 - This one seemed pretty straightforward although QB, wheat, Boss and Jim all screwed up.
Cowboys 23 Eagles 1 - Seems Jon is really clutching at straws now backing the Eagles!
Ravens 2 Steelers 22 - Apart from the obv picker, blame Sucram.

Jim vs QB - QB takes this week by just 1 pick (10 to 9) and thus breaks Jims streak. That makes the series 5-4 QB as we head into week 10.

Elite Pickem - Overall

Overall we are now tied two-way at the top!

1 Din Mor - 89
The Immortal Ones - 89
3 Boss - 88
milano collection RB - 88
5 QB's Square Picks - 87

Jim retains overall lead but now finds himself in a tie with AJ. Boss sneaks even closer to the top and is only 1 back.

Elite Pickem - Win Table

Boss and Woll both debut at the bottom of the win table:

1 Kelly Rules - 2
Esox Magnus - 2
Din Mor - 2
3 PerfectLight - 1
wiff's ownage picks - 1
darthrob64 - 1
Come - 1
Neo's Aussie Picks - 1
milano collection RB - 1
The Immortal Ones - 1
matt8000 ftw - 1
Octo's Picks - 1
sucram - 1
Ng's Superpicks! - 1
Larkin - 1
Boss - 1
Woll - 1


Elite Spread Pickem

Elite Spread Pickem - Week 9

matt8000 reappears on the weekly winner lists with 11 correct predictions.

1 matt8000 ftw - 11

Elite Spread Pickem - Overall

QB is back in the lead with a 2 point gap opened up again.

1 QB's Pro Bets - 70
2 Ptown Boners - 68
3 Boss - 67
4 Milano Collection RB - 66
ngamer whackers - 66


Elite Survival

Elite Survival - Week 9

Everyone made it through again! Unbelievable. Can all four keep it going as we head into the 10th week of the season? Safe options are running out fast


Still in: Team Angle, Octo's Survival Picks, mostfrantic, Topes
Eliminated: Boss(1), Clark(1), QB(1), Milano(2), Come(2), Better Than Ngamer(3), Kelly Rules(3), The Immortal Ones(4), Ng's Supersurvivors!(4), Neo's Aussie Picks(4), mikerspd manhandlers(4), Moo Moo Farm(4), matt8000 ftw(5), boss killers(6), Crossbow of Paradigm(6), Ptown Boners (7)

octoinky

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NFL Discussion, Bets, and Picks Analysis (by Shep)
« Reply #174 on: November 07, 2007, 03:18:00 pm »
Everybody told me survival would be over by now!  They laughed when I said I'm making iffy picks early to shoot for a 17 win season, but I hope one of us can do it!


I'm in a tossup between two teams this week for survival - not sure how I'm going to pick between them.  But I still have a handful of teams left I'm confident in for weeks to come.

Quiet Bol

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NFL Discussion, Bets, and Picks Analysis (by Shep)
« Reply #175 on: November 07, 2007, 05:40:00 pm »
Dang it, Shep. I had the Falcons. And the other game I got wrong was so straightforward that the underdog won!

P.S. Your 3-way tie at the top looks mysteriously like a 2-way tie!

ShadowZero64

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NFL Discussion, Bets, and Picks Analysis (by Shep)
« Reply #176 on: November 07, 2007, 06:05:00 pm »
Seawarthogs really disappointed me :rolleyes

wheatrich

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NFL Discussion, Bets, and Picks Analysis (by Shep)
« Reply #177 on: November 07, 2007, 07:04:00 pm »
Those raiders continue to kill me.  I got to stop picking them in games they should win.  edit--This is a major make or break week for me looking at my picks.  I figure I will pretty easily either gain or lose 2 games or more vs the field based on them.

Quiet Bol

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NFL Discussion, Bets, and Picks Analysis (by Shep)
« Reply #178 on: November 08, 2007, 01:34:00 am »
Hmm, I only have 1 pick where I think I'll be going against the flow. Did you take Miami, wheat? :D

rshepherd1000

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NFL Discussion, Bets, and Picks Analysis (by Shep)
« Reply #179 on: November 09, 2007, 10:45:00 am »
yeah a lot of annoying games this week. I think I did take miami in the end actually

(previous post edited to account for 2 way tie. I said you picked the falcons qb you buffoon)

Quiet Bol

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NFL Discussion, Bets, and Picks Analysis (by Shep)
« Reply #180 on: November 09, 2007, 07:23:00 pm »
You must have edited! I thought you had listed people who got it wrong. :o

wheatrich

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NFL Discussion, Bets, and Picks Analysis (by Shep)
« Reply #181 on: November 09, 2007, 09:52:00 pm »
ugh I actually made a bet against Devin Hester figuring nobody would actually kick to him--and THEN I hear the @#%$ raiders are saying sure we'll kick to him all the time.  HELLO YOU PLAY TO WIN THE GAME!!!

They're definitely winning the "how the hell do we cost wheat the most money possible" contest.  It's sickening me.

ShadowZero64

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NFL Discussion, Bets, and Picks Analysis (by Shep)
« Reply #182 on: November 10, 2007, 01:15:00 am »
I seriously hope the Seapelicans pull through this weekend or else there will be a devil to pay.

I also astutely claim that Chicago will lose, since I have them winning and they've mirrored my predictions pretty darn well so far which is mildly annoying.

Beating QB shouldn't be much of a problem though, I'm feeling confident that he will have a hard time keeping up with me this week, just like his mor kept it up hard for me last night :o

Edit: Typical 05:16 typo had to go.

wheatrich

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NFL Discussion, Bets, and Picks Analysis (by Shep)
« Reply #183 on: November 11, 2007, 12:49:00 am »
Dallas -1 or -2?  I guess I'll follow Q (well just the picture part hopefully and make it my...)



Analysis (see NYG's recent schedule--all cupcakes--end of cupcakes means they've got a fantastic shot at going 8-8 again after a hot start lol.)  That and Dallas is by far the better squad... [although the last time I thought dallas would romp on the road as the fav romo decided to do everything in his power to win the game for buffalo so...]

Atlanta ML +170 is also my...



Also on
KC -3

edit--okay for a little better analysis.  NYG only had one sack vs Dal first go around--also Dallas defense is really good versus the run and maybe this time they'll actually cover Burress... I hope.  (burress won't be 100% during the game)

anyway--to whoever (PSK I think) said miami would go winless and offered to wager--I'm also interested in the miami winning side so if you're still interested in making a wager let me know (and I'm sure Q would take an offer as well if you guys haven't already).

Ngamer

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NFL Discussion, Bets, and Picks Analysis (by Shep)
« Reply #184 on: November 11, 2007, 03:07:00 am »
Ngamer's Bet - Week Ten
The Packers will defeat by Vikings by more than 6 points.
* Risking $5 to win $4.76

NFL YTD: -$7.05

Whooo Packers whoo!
thengamer. com

octoinky

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NFL Discussion, Bets, and Picks Analysis (by Shep)
« Reply #185 on: November 11, 2007, 05:13:00 pm »
AURGH NO.  Goooo atlanta or survival is over.

I was soooo close to taking SEA tomorrow night instead of NO, now I really hope the niners pull the big upset too so I don't regret this coinflip decision.

mikerspd

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NFL Discussion, Bets, and Picks Analysis (by Shep)
« Reply #186 on: November 12, 2007, 02:12:00 am »
"The Packers will defeat by Vikings by more than 6 points."

Just BARELY made that one :p

Picking St. Louis seemed dumb to me, given that they had a full team today.  But I would have probably picked Carolina myself, so bleh.  Was a tough week, but good run boys.

octoinky

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NFL Discussion, Bets, and Picks Analysis (by Shep)
« Reply #187 on: November 12, 2007, 04:41:00 am »
I've always had the "dont pick against the winless teams" superstition, and when I go against it, it bites me in the ass!  I knew it.


Do we all win, then?  Thats kinda lame, I feel like we all just lost lol

rshepherd1000

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NFL Discussion, Bets, and Picks Analysis (by Shep)
« Reply #188 on: November 12, 2007, 12:45:00 pm »
yeah what a lame week of results. full update will come later in the week but survival is over >:

matt8k

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NFL Discussion, Bets, and Picks Analysis (by Shep)
« Reply #189 on: November 14, 2007, 10:33:00 pm »
Not being the experienced picker, I've been picking a couple underdogs each week. This week's pick'em has paid off, but more often than not that strategy screws me over.
Frigate doesn't complete in Melbourne 

octoinky

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NFL Discussion, Bets, and Picks Analysis (by Shep)
« Reply #190 on: November 14, 2007, 10:44:00 pm »
I do that too.  This week, my two upsets (against who picked whom? page) both panned out.  Still not a good week though.

ShadowZero64

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NFL Discussion, Bets, and Picks Analysis (by Shep)
« Reply #191 on: November 14, 2007, 11:51:00 pm »
Terrible week, hopefully this one will get with the program.

wheatrich

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NFL Discussion, Bets, and Picks Analysis (by Shep)
« Reply #192 on: November 15, 2007, 10:55:00 am »
uhhh SZ it was a fantastic week for you as you gained a game on most of your competitors.

Only one person taking Was and one on Ten shocked me as I struggled picking both of those games and figured when I ended up 0-2 on them I was screwed for the week.  Darn I'm usually on the other side vs the field in games like that feel like I missed a game vs the field there oh well.*

*after looking at the group sheet I royally blew another one too sigh*

rshepherd1000

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NFL Discussion, Bets, and Picks Analysis (by Shep)
« Reply #193 on: November 16, 2007, 10:56:00 am »
Elite Pickem

Elite Pickem - Week 10

Well this week was pretty meh to be fair. A load of wins that  could be considered unexpected judging by how the predictions went.

1 matt8000 ftw - 10
2 Octo's Picks - 8
picks of wheat - 8
Kelly Rules - 8

matt8000 is back! 10 correct picks in an otherwise poor week gets him the weekly win by 2. Octo and Kelly Rules share second with 8 - along with wheat who, as we'll see, picked horrendously and really deserves absolutely no credit for this performance.

Pick breakdown (winner in bold):

Falcs 2 Pants 21 - I dont really know how or where to start here. Wheat picked the Falcs. I mean this may go down in history as the WORST pick EVER. Im just so irate about this on so many levels its not even funny. Firstly the Falcs had no chance of winning this game so the pick itself was just completely ridiculous. Secondly Smith has done nothing AGAIN without delhomme and so is now going to be dropped from my fantasy team. Coupled with Gore performing like hes in a GNC and not the NFL and my first 2 draft picks are monumental suckers. THis of course is completely wheats fault, especially as he somehow managed to win his fantasy matchup this week which is just TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE. I mean wtf Youse. As if things werent bad enough hes clealry doing matt8000s picks also (the other falcs culprit). And to top it all off I had the bloody pants in survival. Can you say arg som fethaja helvete? >: >: >: >: >: >: >: >: >: >: >: >: >: >: >: >: >: >: >: >:
Vikes 1 Pack 22 - A strange pick from the milano collection here. And now peterson is dead so gg fantasy
Broncos 6 Chiefs 17 - Jim managed to get this one right.
Bills 22 Miami 1 - Well I picked Miami and I dont think it was a bad pick at all. As amusing as it is to see the Dolphins suck so much, they arent a 0-9 team at all so for pickem purposes this was a disappointing outcome (again)
Rams 1 Saints 22 - matt8000 correctly picked the Rams here. What is wrong with the saints really.
Browns 1 Steelers 22 - W:lol  ll
Jax 1 Tits 22 - Wheee. im astonished I was th eonly one to back jax here. Its been quite teh backpedal from QB on those jags
Eagles 1 Redskins 22 - Kelly Rules was the only one to get this right. The Eagles are just so frickin random - although I assume they are blowing the league away in every category of QBS stats.
Bengals 10 Ravens 11 - Finally a game where the split was relatively even.
Lions 20 Cards 3 - matt8000, PDO and QB took this one correctly
Cowboys 18 Giants 5 - I find it suprising even 5 people backed the giants
Bears 20 Raiders 3 - geez matt is so hit and miss. Here he was backing the raiders, along with sucram and lark
Colts 22 Chargers 1 - and now here he backs the chargers? Crazy
Niners 0 Seawheats 23 - straightforward

Just to clarify this. In four games with overwhelming favourites amongst the elite (2-21, 1-22, 3-20, 1-22 splits), matt8000 defies logic and picks the underdog correctly

Jim vs QB - A tie between the two adversaries this week means QB retains his 5-4 lead heading into week 11.

Elite Pickem - Overall

Not a huge amount of change at the top as most people scored very similarly this week.

1 Din Mor - 96
2 The Immortal Ones - 95
3 QB's Square Picks - 94
Boss - 94
milano collection RB - 94

Jim is now the overall leader again on 96 picks, 1 ahead of AJ who occupies second alone. Boss comeback stutters a little as he is now 2 off the lead.

Elite Pickem - Win Table

With his second win, matt8000 makes it a four-way tie at the top.

1 Kelly Rules - 2
Esox Magnus - 2
Din Mor - 2
matt8000 ftw - 2
3 PerfectLight - 1
wiff's ownage picks - 1
darthrob64 - 1
Come - 1
Neo's Aussie Picks - 1
milano collection RB - 1
The Immortal Ones - 1
Octo's Picks - 1
sucram - 1
Ng's Superpicks! - 1
Larkin - 1
Boss - 1
Woll - 1


Elite Spread Pickem

Elite Spread Pickem - Week 10

QB and myself tie for 7 in this dismal week.

1 QB's Pro Bets        - 7
Team Angle - 7

Elite Spread Pickem - Overall

QB extends his advantage to four over the Boss.

1 QB's Pro Bets - 77
2 Boss - 73
3 Milano Collection RB - 72
Ptown Boners - 72
ngamer whackers - 72


Elite Survival

Elite Survival - Week 10

And just like that its all over. I picked the pants and lost (see above). Whilst the remaining three all took the Saints. So I guess that makes it a fourway tie for first. Full rundown to be provided at seasons end.


Eliminated: Boss(1), Clark(1), QB(1), Milano(2), Come(2), Better Than Ngamer(3), Kelly Rules(3), The Immortal Ones(4), Ng's Supersurvivors!(4), Neo's Aussie Picks(4), mikerspd manhandlers(4), Moo Moo Farm(4), matt8000 ftw(5), boss killers(6), Crossbow of Paradigm(6), Ptown Boners (7), Team Angle (10), Octo's Survival Picks (10), mostfrantic (10), Topes (10)

TheLegendaryPSR

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NFL Discussion, Bets, and Picks Analysis (by Shep)
« Reply #194 on: November 16, 2007, 02:37:00 pm »
Quote
Quote:
Vikes 1 Pack 22 - A strange pick from the milano collection here


well at least i got a mention :)  

Quote
Quote:
Bills 22 Miami 1 - Well I picked Miami and I dont think it was a bad pick at all.


"well there are varying degrees of totallity(sp?). you've got a perfect mission on one side, and a total pooch screw on the other. picking miami was a bad, bad pick and you cannot possibly convince anyone otherwise :D

Quote
Quote:
As amusing as it is to see the Dolphins suck so much, they arent a 0-9 team at all


no they aren't. they're an 0-9 team missing their 3 good players, good coaching, leadership and ability.

even considering their bye week, they should be 0-10

wheatrich

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NFL Discussion, Bets, and Picks Analysis (by Shep)
« Reply #195 on: November 17, 2007, 10:46:00 am »
According to the sports bettors--they saw the Atl vs Car game as I did as the ML line even after I posted plummeted to around +140ish.  Which means that they thought that Atlanta would win that game more than 2 times out of 5. (I actually had Atl a little over 50% to win that game [Car was either starting--a banged up Vinny T or some guy I had never heard of])  I hardly call that "the worst pick ever".

PSR--would you like to make any wager with me that Miami will go 0-16?  I'll take the 1-15 and better.

Quiet Bol

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NFL Discussion, Bets, and Picks Analysis (by Shep)
« Reply #196 on: November 17, 2007, 10:52:00 am »
He can't afford to. He already bet everything he owns against everything I own.

Ngamer

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NFL Discussion, Bets, and Picks Analysis (by Shep)
« Reply #197 on: November 18, 2007, 01:07:00 am »
The Dolphins are the best 0-9 team in league history.
thengamer. com

wheatrich

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NFL Discussion, Bets, and Picks Analysis (by Shep)
« Reply #198 on: November 18, 2007, 10:25:00 am »
Bet of the Week

Priest Holmes UNDER 70.5 rushing yards at Indy. (-115)

Although I'm afraid Holmes will get a bunch of carries b/c Croyle's starting I've got several things in my favor.

First Holmes hasn't been a dependable back in years.  Isn't this only his second actual game (and only got 40ish last week vs Denver's horrible rush defense)  Second, indy has a good rushing defense.
Third, Indy stopped KC pretty good the last time KC went to indy and had LJ.
Fourth, shouldn't indy be having 8 man fronts and forcing Croyle to throw the ball?

Also on
NE -15
Cle -3

Feel like if I had parlayed every team I thought would win in NCAAf this week I would have hit it.  oh well (would have done OSU+Missouri+Illinois) missed betting on Mizzou as I had planned though (completely forgot lol).

Ngamer

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NFL Discussion, Bets, and Picks Analysis (by Shep)
« Reply #199 on: November 18, 2007, 09:48:00 pm »
Ngamer's Bet - Week Eleven
The Packers and Cowboys will enter their Thanksgiving matchups at 9-1.
* Risking $5 to win $2.00

NFL YTD: -$2.29

Whooo Packers again!
thengamer. com