NFL Discussion, Bets, and Picks Analysis (by Shep)

[TheLegendaryPSR]

i'm still in survival but think i should've picked the pittsburgh game

i was happy to see the packs win but only because i said to a workmate that they would've a good season and he didn't believe me. i'm actually a lot more partial to philly for personal reasons(the same reason i'm a ravens fan actually)

some poor officiating in the ravens match cost us, as did boller playing, as did mcgahee having a terrible first half and not much better second.

i watched the first 20 minutes of the 49ers game, saw how much it sucked and then went to bed.

currently 1-0-0 in both of my fantasy football leagues, helped mostly by my opponent trading me LT.

chad johnson's celebration - well overhyped

[Jimbo]

Yeah I know our offense was horrible against Philly, but I'm willing to bet we get 3 offensive TDs or more against the Giants next week simply based on history / 2 starters returning. You'll see you unbeliever!

[wishiwasfamous]

How are the Giants and Cowboys still listed as having a D in Fantasy Football?

[rshepherd1000]

Elite Pickem

Weeek 1 is out of the way and despite several upsets many of the elite group managed to score very highly in pickem. Jax and the Eagles losing was just ridiculous.

Lets see how the table looks:

1 Esox Magnus - 14
2 Moo Moo Farm - 13
3 QB's Square Picks - 12
Octo's Picks - 12
picks of wheat - 12
darthrob64 - 12
PerfectLight - 12
Boss - 12
milano collection RB - 12
PDO's Perfect Picks - 12

A fantastic start by the Ngamer household although once again Jon is left trailing in the wake of his mor(e) astute relatives. 14 picks is a very high score indeed for Ngamer dad, as is drag's 13 picks to land an uncontested 2nd place. A tie for third between many of the heavyweights. Several out of this group will expect to challenge for first place by the end of the season. PDO in particular did well to recover after picking the Saints.

Jim vs Fal - Excellent start by SZ who manged to pull 9 correct picks together and take a 1 shot lead into the second round as Fal ties wiff for last place with 8.


Elite Spread Pickem

1 Moo Moo Farm - 11
2 Team Angle - 10
Ptown Boners - 10
4 Boss - 9
5 DarkHawk's Picks - 8
ngamer whackers - 8
Topes - 8
Neo's Aussie Picks - 8

Spread pickem proved to be a tougher challenge in week 1. With the absence of the Ngamer family in this competition drag was able to assume top spot with 11 correct picks, 2 less than normal pickem.


Elite Survival

We said goodbye to two genuine contenders this week as Boss and Clark were undone by Jax and Rams respectively. QB unsuprisingly also dropped out having backed Jax too. Presumably he felt this was Jax's best chance of winning a game this year. Which fills me with optimism for that Colts series. Overal Seattle was the safest pick and the one most took. Steelers also did a lot of people well whilst Jon and Octo scraped through with the niners.

Eliminated: Boss, Clark, QB
Still in: Come, Team Angle, boss killers, Octo's Survival Picks, Neo's Aussie Picks, matt8000 ftw, mikerspd manhandlers, mostfrantic, Better Than Ngamer, Ptown Boners, Ng's Supersurvivors!, Moo Moo Farm, Topes, Kelly Rules, Crossbow of Paradigm, Milano Collection RB, The Immortal Ones


Dont want to feel worse after week 2 than QB does now? then...

dont forget those picks!

[ShadowZero64]

TD Colts!

[Quiet Bol]

Everybody still in Survival should go for Jax this week if they know what's good for 'em!

I think Colts kind of seemed like the safest pick last week. I was about 50/50 on picking them but I guess I got too caught up in showing my Jax support! Seattle seemed like a bad pick, imo, but I don't think very highly of them.

Edit - To be fair, I also didn't know Jax's kicker would be injured in pre-game warmups, resulting in 4th and 10 attempts in FG range.

[dragondragon18]

They have no backup?  Even Jimbo/Ngamer could nail some of those short ones.

[TheLegendaryPSR]

you'd think so anyway

[youseinthehouse]

I agreed that seattle wasn't as much of a lock as some of the other teams (I definitely had colts, steelers, and patriots (and eagles, d'oh) losing under no circumstance)... but I figure seattle's surest bet to win this season came against the Bucs.  It's all about not wasting teams who are genuinely great by picking teams who are O.K. (Sea) playing teams that have nothing going for them (Bucs).

[TheLegendaryPSR]

why is it kickers are advised to kick away from dante hall, but are not advised to kick away from hester(who is far, FAR better than hall?)

also (this is at the end of the 1st quarter) - go ravens! show that qb he sucks at a game he's never played

[Ngamer]

Ngamer's Bet - Week Two
Chargers over the Patriots straight up
AND
Eagles over Redskins straight up
* Risking $5 to win $12.33

NFL YTD: +$12.30

Go Bolts!
---

If you've come into Chat the last two weeks on Sunday or Monday night, you know that it's a great place to hang out and hear about all the games going on, what players are putting up TDs, whose Survival pick is on the line, who's having a great day in Fantasy, etc all.  If you HAVEN'T dropped in to visit us, then jeez, you're missing out!

To assist those new to Chat during NFL season, here are all the important chatters along with their team, who they're sure to be rooting their heart out for!

The Elite Chat - Who's Rooting Who

Green Bay Packers
Ngamer
Jimbo
pack

Indianapolis Colts
Come
Neo

New England Patriots
Shep
Lark

Chicago Bears
wheat
Alec

Philadelphia Eagles
QB
Youse

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Clark
Nate
BloodE

Baltimore Ravens
PDO

Denver Broncos
wiff

Minnesota Vikings
Boss
drag

Cincinnati Bengals
Reds

San Diego Chargers
octo

Washington Redskins
Goose
SZ

Tennessee Titans
Comet

Go Team!  Defeat the Opponents!
DK

[wishiwasfamous]

Carson Palmer :X:X:X:X

[ajbownes]

It was anextremely close call for everyone in the Survival.

My Salary Cap team managed 120 points without anyone from the Bengals/Browns madness and without a productive TE.

[octoinky]

I'm glad I wasn't home to @#%$ my pants during the Denver game.  I didn't think everybody else would take them, thought my pick was pretty clever - appears half of the league was on that one!

[rshepherd1000]

jon that was a TERRIBLE bet on the chargers. i expect this kind of standard from qb - not you or jimbo

bengals d ftw

[boole]

I never picked the bucs you scandalous heathen.

[rshepherd1000]

Elite Pickem

Elite Pickem - Week 2

Week 2 was pretty horrible all round. Some monumental upsets meant we would expect last weeks leaderboard to be flipped upside down as the jokers got their awful picks rewarded. Lets see what happened:

1 PerfectLight - 13
Din Mor - 13
wiff's ownage picks - 13
4 picks of wheat - 11
The Immortal Ones - 11
sucram - 11

Well no suprise really. The presence of Jim and Wiff in the top3 for the week says it all. Jims picks were utterly horrendous and its quite staggering how well he did. Serial underdog backer Wiff joins him in the top 3 along with PL. Somehow these clowns got 13 correct. Wheat, AJ and Sucram managed a respectable 11. I'll let Sucram and AJ off, but wheat should know better really!

Jim vs Fal - Jims excellent week puts Fal to further shame and thus opens up a 2-0 lead in this hotly contested battle for pride.


Elite Pickem - Overall

How has this madness affected the overall table?

1 PerfectLight - 25
2 picks of wheat - 23
3 Esox Magnus - 22
Din Mor - 22

PL is a big mover this week capturing the number 1 ranking with 25 picks and a huge 2 point lead over that man wheat with 23. Jim is inexplicably in a tie for third with the more credible Ngamer far on 22.


Elite Pickem - Win Table

New this year is the weekly wins table. This gives any late starters or forgetful noobs like goose the chance to compete even if they miss a few weeks of picks. After week 2 we have a four way tie with 1 win for:

1 Esox Magnus - 1
PerfectLight - 1
Din Mor - 1
wiff's ownage picks - 1


Elite Spread Pickem

Elite Spread Pickem - Week 2

Finally I think we may have found something QB is good at it. The guy simply has no ability to pick at the money line but throw in a spread and suddenly it all starts to come together:

1 QB's Pro Bets        - 11
2 ngamer whackers - 10
3 Topes        - 8
4 Ptown Boners - 7
Ng's Superspreads! - 7
Clark Kills - 7


Elite Spread Pickem - Overall

Overall the table is looking like this:

1 ngamer whackers - 18
2 Ptown Boners - 17
QB's Pro Bets - 17
4 Topes - 16
5 Moo Moo Farm - 15


Elite Survival

Elite Survival - Week 2

Two more dropouts this week as Milano And Come both incorrectly backed the Bengals to carry them into week 3. Jax was clearly the way to go but suprisingly there were a lot that risked it all on that horrible horrible broncos team. 15 are still alive, who will be eliminated this week?

Still in: Team Angle, boss killers, Octo's Survival Picks, Neo's Aussie Picks, matt8000 ftw, mikerspd manhandlers, mostfrantic, Better Than Ngamer, Ptown Boners, Ng's Supersurvivors!, Moo Moo Farm, Topes, Kelly Rules, Crossbow of Paradigm, The Immortal Ones
Eliminated: Boss(1), Clark(1), QB(1), Milano(2), Come(2)

[rshepherd1000]

If youd rather not be bracketed as an early noob like fal or goose then I suggest you...

dont forget those picks!

[ShadowZero64]

I have to disagree about them being horrendous picks considering that I got 13 correct

[wheatrich]

SZ's got a point there. In fact looking at his picks--they were solid picks.  Like every pickem contest you need that upset pick or two to come through.  The only pick I thought that you could consider bad (although I did bet on the texans and yet didn't pick them  ) was Washington and they came through for him.

[wishiwasfamous]

hahaha, that weeks was faaaaantastic

Greatest sound in the universe is Janikowski's "donk" on the post.

[youseinthehouse]

Hey... Yahoo had some problems or something, and my survival pick didn't go through for the week.  Luckily, I had this conversation with a niners fan last night on aim, proving who I "picked".  I'd still like to continue survival, I'll just do it in this topic:

(08:54:31 PM) Bryan: your niners
(08:54:37 PM) Bryan: could kill my survival this week
(08:54:40 PM) Alex: are going to lose
(08:54:47 PM) Bryan: hopefully
(08:56:35 PM) Bryan: rumor:  vernon davis unhappy with role this season
(08:56:40 PM) Bryan: duhhhh
(08:56:54 PM) Alex: haha
(08:56:57 PM) Alex: put up some #s
(08:57:00 PM) Bryan: the whole @#%$ offense should be unhappy
(08:57:07 PM) Bryan: you guys are 31st in pasisng ypg
(08:57:15 PM) Bryan: 32nd in total ypg
(08:57:18 PM) Alex: balla
(08:57:42 PM) Bryan: anyways i'm picking pittsburgh at home vs SF in survival
(08:57:47 PM) Bryan: you guys better not shock the world
(08:58:05 PM) Alex: pretty safe
(08:58:18 PM) Bryan: safest i can see
(08:58:23 PM) Bryan: dont' want to waste patriots yet
(08:58:35 PM) Bryan: i would say eagles vs detroit is the safest
(08:58:37 PM) Bryan: if this were preseason
(08:58:44 PM) Bryan: but i'm honestly afraid detroit is going to win now
(08:59:02 PM) Alex: yeah i would be

edited his screen name out

[wheatrich]

What the hell are you saving NE for?  (darn you luckboxes in survival with denver and baltimore the last two weeks)

[Jimbo]

I'm so relieved that we played our hearts out and didn't get beat by a last second McCarthy / Favre mess up that 2005 and 2006 have been littered with. Even everyone in Green Bay had this week circled as a loss and we would enjoy all of week 2 being undefeated for as much as it was worth. After this performance, and coupled with Favre getting the TD record (and NOT getting the INT record yet) makes me believe the Packers have a real chance at going deep in the playoffs. We've beaten 3 teams that made the playoffs last year and remain 3-0, this week is gonna be fun that's for sure! We go into Minnesota next week, let the trashtalking begin! Packers are gonna rip apart that stupid team like the little girls they are! 4-0 baby!

[Ngamer]

Ngamer's Bet - Week Three
Cowboys over the Bears straight up
AND
Saints over Titans straight up
* Risking $5 to win $11.98

NFL YTD: +$7.30

Go Boys!

[youseinthehouse]

I'm saving teams like IND and NE for when there are no other attractive picks OTHER than them.  Last week, I did get lucky with Denver, but Den over Oak was a much safer bet (before we saw the outcomes) than NE over SD.  Clearly, this week, Pitt was as safe a bet as NE.

Hell, the patriots might go undefeated this year.

[TheLegendaryPSR]

2nd week in a row where chicago get all the decisions in their favour. pass interference calls, roughing the kicker, half time.

a half finishes after 30 minutes, NOT when chicago turns the ball over.

GO REX!
it's getting silly

Quote:I'm saving teams like IND and NE for when there are no other attractive picks OTHER than them.

I'd rather go for the easy picks myself, but i understand your reasons for not picking them.

But i do disagree on one thing - Steelers over 49ers was not as obvious as the bills losing against anyone

[ajbownes]

Not quite sure how I've done with the pigskin pick'em. Alright I think.

Done quite well with my Salary Cap one. Brady, Moss, Addai, Bearder III, New England Defence and my regular yahoo team (Brady, Moss, Boldin, Cooley) have easily won my matchup.

[wishiwasfamous]

wowowowowow at Fantasy teams this week

[packattack]

I had a heck of a week doing spread picks.  I am 13-2 going into the MNF game with my only blemishes being SD -4 and Baltimore -9.  I placed significant bets on:

New England -16      W
Philadelphia -7         W
Indianapolis -5         W
Pittsburgh -9           W
Baltimore -9             L
Jacksonville ML        W
Dallas ML                W
Cincinnati +3.5         W
N.Y. Giants +3.5       W
Miami/NYJ Under 35   L
Detroit/Phi Over 44.5    W
Seattle/Cinci Over 50.5  L
GB/SD Over 44             W



Glad to see GB off to their fast start.  I didn't think they would be able to beat SD, but I guess Norv Turner already destroyed that team.

[wheatrich]

ugh a lot of "just covers" in spreads this week--glad I didn't bet on what I picked on yahoo lol.  (sun+mon night games I took the dogs so I ended up with a small gain after the big hurt the lions put on me earlier (and yes I feel stupid on them) [had Ariz or Det won I would have been golden lol])  [didn't take Jax in either pickem or spread for some stupid reason]

*tallies it up*

I'm stunned--a +3u weekend on NFL despite royally blowing it on the lions.

In summation
week 3 overall (including O/U's)  9-7 +3u.  (to the novice a u is a betting unit.  like if Q normally bet $20 on a game $20 would be his unit.  It's pretty standard just to say units rather than $ in the sports betting world.

ugh, seems like I've lost week 1 data so no overall  

Well I took a risk in fantasy with the holt trade for MJD knowing the difference between Holt and McDonald for the rest of the year would be little hoping MJD would come back and I think I just made a giant trade bust.  (and with two of my starters getting hurt this fantasy season's already going to hell)  I probably could have waited and gotten a little better value for holt though.

[dragondragon18]

Wow, Wheat.  Holt is one of the elite receivers, and MJD has been very subpar this year.  I have a hard time seeing this working out well for you.

[Quiet Bol]

Wow, Wheat. Holt is playing hurt, and MJD has been very subpar over a 3-game period. I have a hard time seeing why guys like Tomlinson, LJ, and S-Jax are even on rosters after playing so poorly.

[Quiet Bol]

Anyway, I thought it would be neat to look back on my preseason bets regarding Season Win Totals, and they look so good in the earlygoing, that I thought I'd share them here.

(Keep in mind that if a wager says "Over 7 Wins", as the first one does, that means that 8-8 or better wins the bet, 6-10 or worse loses the bet, and I would receive a full refund on a 7-9 record.)

Tampa Bay - Over 7 Wins - Risk $62.50 to win $50.00
St. Louis - Under 8 Wins - Risk $110.00 to win $100.00
San Diego - Under 11 Wins - Risk $62.50 to win $50.00
Philadelphia - Over 9.5 Wins - Risk $70.00 to win $50.00
Oakland - Over 5 Wins - Risk $80.00 to win $50.00
New Orleans - Under 9.5 Wins - Risk $50.00 to win $50.00
Miami - Under 7 Wins - Risk $50.00 to win $55.00
Kansas City - Under 7.5 Wins - Risk $72.50 to win $50.00
Jacksonville - Over 9.5 Wins - Risk $100.00 to win $80.00
Indianapolis - Under 10.5 Wins - Risk $52.50 to win $50.00
Green Bay - Over 7.5 Wins - Risk $100.00 to win $145.00
Dallas - Under 9 Wins - Risk $200.00 to win $240.00
Cleveland - Over 6 Wins - Risk $115.00 to win $100.00
Arizona - Under 7.5 Wins - Risk $105.00 to win $100.00

and a few player props...

Warrick Dunn - Under 1235 rushing yards - Risk $120.00 to win $100.00
Torry Holt - Under 10.5 receiving TDs - Risk $60.00 to win $50.00
Reggie Bush - Under 1.5 punt return TDs - Risk $55.00 to win $50.00

[wheatrich]

I have

Buffalo under 6
Atlanta under 7.5  * pre vick news*
KC under 8
Ariz under 7.5
NYG under 8
Dal under 9
right now 5-1 is looking almost like a damn lock on those.
*hmmm Q's actually not on the opposite side of one of these for a change*  (pretty surprised I didn't take NO under as that is EXACTLY my type of bet ugh)

player props
Dunn under rushing (EXACT same bet as Q)
Leinart under passing/pass TD's
Edge under rush TD's (this was bad but I bet this before my brain kicked in on why Leinart wasn't going to throw as much as last season (wise is a rushing guy) doh)
a bunch of other unders that would take me too long to post.
Quinn to start vs Miami

[rshepherd1000]

Elite Pickem

Elite Pickem - Week 3

Week 3 was about as normal a week as you could expect from the NFL. Well normal in every case except for those horrible Packers! What we didnt expect was who would be heading the weekly table!

1 Kelly Rules - 12
2 Mike - 11
mikerspd - 11
picks of wheat - 11
Woll - 11
Ng's Superpicks! - 11
Boss - 11
darthrob64 - 11
QB's Square Picks - 11

After an atrocious week 2, none other than Kelly Rules was the best picker this week with 12. In a massive tie for second theres a virtual whos who of Elite Pickem, all of whom made 11 correct choices.

Jim vs Fal - Jim with yet another shutout to go up 3-0 in the series. Fal must be terribly embarassed at this.


Elite Pickem - Overall

What does this mean overall?

1 picks of wheat - 34
2 PerfectLight - 33
3 Boss - 32
QB's Square Picks - 32
darthrob64 - 32

PL had a less than satisfying week allowing wheat to not only close the gap but take the lead with 34 picks and a 98.9 percentile! Nevertheless PL is still in the early running just 1 behind on 33. The trio of Boss, QB and myself share in a tie for 3rd on 32. Despite the week 3 domination by Kelly Rules he is still all the way down in 25th! (and yes he has picked every week).

Elite Pickem - Win Table

Not much is changing here on this leaderboard. After 3 weeks theres now a 5 way tie for 1st. If you havent started pickem at all yet this year (Clark) or have missed a few weeks (Goose) then here is your incentive to get back on track!

1 Esox Magnus - 1
PerfectLight - 1
Din Mor - 1
wiff's ownage picks - 1
Kelly Rules - 1


Elite Spread Pickem

Elite Spread Pickem - Week 3

A three way tie at the top this week as yet again the totals are lower than non-spread:

1 Boss - 9
Clark Kills - 9
Milano Collection RB - 9
4 DarkHawk's Picks - 8
Come - 8


Elite Spread Pickem - Overall

Spread pickem is proving to be very competitive as overall we have a five way tie for 1st:

1 Topes - 23
Ptown Boners - 23
ngamer whackers - 23
QB's Pro Bets - 23
Boss - 23


Elite Survival

Elite Survival - Week 3

Another two gone this week as Chicago screw up Fals survial and the Redskins undo the omnipresent Kelly Rules. Youse moves onto the Babysitting list as Yahoo 'did not register' his Steelers pick and so he now requires constant surveillance (Next weeks pick MUST be in this topic or IM'd to me by the time of first kick off or you move off babysitting into eliminated).

Those with slightly more credibility survived by picking the Ravens or the Pats. Drag however took the Pants. I know wheat in particular was bitterly disappointed to have wasted the Pats this week and understandably wishes he'd taken the Ravens.

12+1 Remain. Who will be eliminated this week?

Still in: Team Angle, boss killers, Octo's Survival Picks, Neo's Aussie Picks, matt8000 ftw, mikerspd manhandlers, mostfrantic, Ptown Boners, Ng's Supersurvivors!, Moo Moo Farm, Topes, The Immortal Ones
Babysitting: Crossbow of Paradigm
Eliminated: Boss(1), Clark(1), QB(1), Milano(2), Come(2), Better Than Ngamer(3), Kelly Rules(3)

[rshepherd1000]

I dont particularly want to babysit anyone else, so make sure you arent as noobish as Youse and

dont forget (to enter) those picks (properly)!

[ShadowZero64]

I just want to say that Bears and Redskins losing was totally ridic

[packattack]

Most of those bets look pretty good except dallas under 9. They are clearly the class of the NFC which I thought before the year (they are my superbowl pick from the NFC) and they should easily surpass 9 wins this year.  The rest of them seem pretty good though.

Oh, and after MNF I finished 14-2 spread by taking Tenn +4.5.  I placed money on them ML however.  Best week of betting on NFL games EVER.

[youseinthehouse]

Philly over 9.5 SHOULD still happen, barely.  Cross your fingers.  Dallas over 9 will PROBABLY happen.  Shame that's one of your biggest bets!

You don't have to babysit me, I'm going to list the teams I've already used each week!  Sheesh

[TheLegendaryPSR]

the bears losing was actually pretty obvious

[Quiet Bol]

Yeah, shame the bet that's looking worst is also the biggest. Hopefully, Dallas has played its best football of the season in the first 3 weeks. I certainly haven't bought into them to the extent that everybody else seems to.

[youseinthehouse]

Same, I mean, look at the Giants last season...

You're going to need two Eagle victories over the 'Girls to have a chance.  And those are the only specific matchups I truly care about every season.  All other games, I root for the W, but could care less as long as the record ends up playoff-bound somehow.  So, let's make you 200 bucks!

[TheLegendaryPSR]

i can't wait for the cowboys to face the giants so they can beat the living @#%$ out of eli.

the problem they will have is against the eagles since mcnabb can easily expose roy williams main weakness(playing deep)

baltimore need to leave ed reed playing as the deep safety and not landry. just because laron can play that role, it doesn't mean dawan can too

i've gone for the 49ers over the seahawks. i don't know why

[ajbownes]

I'm regretting wasting the pats too. Even though I've picked one for this week I'm still unsure about it.

[octoinky]

Baltimore was (as the game showed, and was my opinion before it started) way too close to pick, and I didn't trust Pitt over SFO enough to pick them either.  You're going to have to pick NE in the first ~8 weeks if you want to win at the-elite, so why not pick them when they are a 15.5 point favorite?  Its not like BAL and PIT wont have equally weak opponents to gobble up in the next 5-7 weeks.

[youseinthehouse]

Pittsburgh over SF was very trustworthy... The niners offense is absolutely horrendous (2nd worst in the league YPG).  You knew they weren't doing ANYTHING major against that stingy, punishing pittsburgh D (2nd lowest YA in the league).  Throw in the fact that it was a home game for the steelers and imo easiest pick of the week.

I don't follow the logic that says you have to pick NE in the first 8 weeks to win?  Also, I don't know how aware you are of NFL schedules, but NE and Buffalo play twice a year.  What's more, NE gets to play the Dolphins twice still and the Jets again.  Trust me, saving them ain't a bad thing... if you're wise about your alternatives.

[highlight to see... AFTER you've selected your pick!]
Pick I'm locking in this week (for now):  DALLAS.

Yes, I hate them.  I want to get picking them out of the way.  If they somehow lose on Sunday, losing survival would be a small price to pay for the joy I'd have.

Note:  CLOSE CALL with picking Indy this week.


So far, I've used SEA, DEN, PIT, and DAL.

[wheatrich]

Let's say you pick Balt over Arizona every week.  According to the odds makers you should be done on average by week 5 of survival.

In the case of buffalo vs NE it was week 14.

NE won't likely be a bigger favorite this season against ANYONE.* Not miami, not the jets again, obviously not at buffalo.  (who do they play in the NFC this year anyway?  the west or east?)

I just don't get the logic of saving teams for later when you MOST LIKELY WILL NEVER PLAY THEM LATER!!!

I may not be "aware" of NFL schedules (and of course I am) but I'm certainly aware of mathematics.  (and btw without even looking at that schedule at least one probably two and possibly three of those games are in december which both of us aren't likely to be in)

According to the oddsmakers Dallas vs St. Louis is the biggest fav however Dal is obviously high on betting and STL is obviously low right now so I'd say that it might not be actually the biggest one.  Even SD vs KC doesn't seem that great to me either and both are similar choices this week.

*of course NE could start the unbeaten talk (usually happens around week 5 or 6) then every joe blow will bet on NE thus potentially against an awful opponent moving the line way too far but realistically not likely.

as for pitt over SF being very trustworthy had the game gone like Balt's did would you have said the same thing? (they basically were the exact same game odds wise)

edit found this gem under my prop bets

Rex Grossman (CHI) - Total Passing Yards
(2007 Regular Season Stats Only) Must start the first regular season game. No Parlays. Max $100
(9172/9173) Under 3205 (-120) Sep 09/07@12:00p
Risk $75.00 to win $62.50

doh--I could have risked more!

[ajbownes]

To answer the question about the pats and the NFC...they have the east.
 
I should have figured this out because the Dolphins/Giants match is over here but I had to cheat and look at their schedule.

Week 6 - Cowboys
Week 8 - Redskins
Week 12 - Eagles
Week 17 - Giants.

[octoinky]

This league is usually over by week 10, from my understanding.  That is why I said use NE in the first 8 weeks.


Picking 70% to win games 10 straight weeks gives you a.. 3% shot at winning the pool.  But we've got way less than 33 ppl, so that's a bad way to play against the average, IMO.