Author Topic: The Elite's 2008 March Madness Dealie (Read 4727 times)

Cyberwrath87 · « **Reply #50 on:** March 23, 2008, 01:39:00 pm »

Here's a quick breakdown on how many people picked whoever as the champion:
North Carolina (14)
UCLA (

Kansas (7)
Texas (3)
Memphis (3)
Wisconsin (2)
Tennessee, UConn, Miami FL (1) each

EDIT:
"Cyber's picks

The top half of this is ok and then you scroll down and see Davidson and West Virginia in the S16."

Owned.

octoinky · « **Reply #51 on:** March 23, 2008, 05:24:00 pm »

From shep:

Octo's Madness!

Standard North Carolina over UCLA in the final, but Im really struggling to get past Davidson beating Georgetown early.

Best Pick: Pitt E8
Worst Pick: Davidson S16
Grade: B

Oops!!! Think everything there is backwards

TreAKAHotdog · « **Reply #52 on:** March 23, 2008, 05:38:00 pm »

which is why it's retarded to grade brackets.

MostFrantic · « **Reply #53 on:** March 23, 2008, 11:19:00 pm »

With the completion of round 2, tapani is the sole leader with 480 points but woll has the greatest potential with 1500 points possible. Sixteen teams remain and the action resumes on Thursday, March 27th. The breakdown is:

1st Round: 10 points per game.
2nd Round: 20
Sweet 16: 40
Elite Eight: 80
Final Four: 120
Finals: 160

Thiradell · « **Reply #54 on:** March 24, 2008, 07:18:00 pm »

Still 440, all right. Damn Butler game.

Still got six of my E8 and all of the F4, so I should be in good shape as long as Wisconsin, Texas and Memphis can win their S16 games. Can't imagine UNC, Louisville or UCLA losing.

MostFrantic · « **Reply #55 on:** March 28, 2008, 03:31:00 am »

After half of the Sweet 16 games completed, we have a 3-way tie on the points board with woll, octo, and cyber leading with 620 points. But woll remains alone at the top in the greatest potential with 1500 points possible. A few more have been eliminated and things are sure to shake up a bit after Friday's games. Stay tuned!

TreAKAHotdog · « **Reply #56 on:** March 28, 2008, 08:45:00 am »

well, my bracket 4 was ranked ~4900 before the tennessee loss, now it's fucked

wishiwasfamous · « **Reply #57 on:** March 28, 2008, 11:25:00 am »

Congrats Vols! *sequence of grumbles and sighs that will no doubt be interpreted as yelling by the oversensitive ears of the elite*

dragondragon18 · « **Reply #58 on:** March 28, 2008, 01:29:00 pm »

Wiff! Quiet down!

octoinky · « **Reply #59 on:** March 28, 2008, 07:37:00 pm »

Today's implications for the weekend... I have Texas > Pittsburg, and Kansas > Wisconson. Naturally, I'll be rooting for Mich. State today then, while I can't get a perfect elite 8, I REALLY need this texas win. WI would be very nice, as I'm sure many many more have Gtown, and I need to cash in instead of split zeros with everybody else. But go Texas!

MostFrantic · « **Reply #60 on:** March 29, 2008, 02:44:00 am »

Nine more people eliminated after Friday's games. Woll is now the sole points leader with 740 but tapani takes over the Total Points Possible category with 1440 points possible. Special mention goes to wtf dolejsi who was the only one to pick Davidson to advance to the Elite Eight - two games on Saturday and two on Sunday.

edit: wiff changed from alive to eliminated.

Thiradell · « **Reply #61 on:** March 29, 2008, 11:45:00 am »

Davidson knocked me out.

Cyberwrath87 · « **Reply #62 on:** March 29, 2008, 02:28:00 pm »

Wow, I'm actually eliminated now? Oh well, I still have a chance to win first place in my $ pool w/ about 50 guys, so whooo!

octoinky · « **Reply #63 on:** March 29, 2008, 03:48:00 pm »

Ugh @ yesterday. Davidson > gtown but not over WI? what was I thinking. I guess from here out, the only game I can afford to miss is Kansas. Doesn't really matter, in our pool, if Davidson > Kansas, and in fact that might help my UNC > Kansas pick, as I obv need my champion! Else, I'm gonna need UNC > UCLA > Texas. Still like my chances, we'll see after the weekend.

MostFrantic · « **Reply #64 on:** March 29, 2008, 05:43:00 pm »

If cyber wins the rest of his picks, tapani will still come out ahead. For me, I'm out if either Davidson or UCLA loses.

octoinky · « **Reply #65 on:** March 29, 2008, 11:49:00 pm »

My best bracket, with pretty good potential as well..

http://games.espn.go.com/tcmen/entry?entryID=1452939&groupIdView=0&entryIDFrom=1452939

890 points, with Kansas > Memphis in the finals. So opposite prospects as my elite bracket, hopefully one of them comes true for a top 10K finish or something

MostFrantic · « **Reply #66 on:** March 30, 2008, 12:00:00 am »

Woll took a big hit with Xavier's defeat by UCLA. Tapani's now the leader in both current points and Total Possible points.

TheFlash · « **Reply #67 on:** March 30, 2008, 09:34:00 am »

So...if Texas wins out and Kansas wins its next two then I can get first here?

MostFrantic · « **Reply #68 on:** March 30, 2008, 10:30:00 am »

TheFlash, you must be Abbey on the list. Yes, assuming I didn't perform any gigo, you'd be champ and would beat Larkin by 10 points. With two games left in the Elite 8, there are 32 combinations of the remaining outcomes. After tonight's games there will be 8 combos and I'll post those with the winner of each. Of the 32 combos now, tapani would win 5 of those.

TreAKAHotdog · « **Reply #69 on:** March 30, 2008, 11:35:00 am »

lol am i like the only one who has memphis?

Quiet Bol · « **Reply #70 on:** March 30, 2008, 07:23:00 pm »

Quote

QB's Cookie Cutter

Look, Im having to sit here grading like 50 brackets and I just dont have time for this kind of nonsense. All 4 #1 seeds in final four?? This thing is so devoid of upsets its ridiculous.

Best Pick: Pitt S16
Worst Pick: Stanford E8
Grade: D

Your grades have had a negative correlation with success. Strangely, this makes them more useful than if they had no correlation at all.

octoinky · « **Reply #71 on:** March 30, 2008, 07:46:00 pm »

Texas eliminated me. Stupid Memphis, I can't believe all #1s made it through! My top bracket is still +10 on the elite, rank 7737. Kansas > Memphis would be top 1000, and my elite bracket.. well, with 4 #1s here, if you don't get your finals right, you'll fall like a rock! Missed all the elite 8 games, woulda been rooting for Davidson - oh well =)

MostFrantic · « **Reply #72 on:** March 30, 2008, 08:07:00 pm »

Kansas' thrilling victory over Davidson puts all four #1 seeds into the Final Four since seeding began in 1979. Tapani remains the leader in both points and possible points. Seven people are still in it and each has a chance at the title. Three games remain and the matchups are Memphis vs. UCLA, North Carolina Vs. Kansas, and then the title game. The first two games are on Saturday, April 5th, and the title game is on Monday, April 7th.

The three remaining games can have 8 different outcomes. Here are the outcomes and the winner of each. Ties would be broken by the ESPN tie-breaker criteria.

Memphis/North Carolina/Memphis: Hovis
Memphis/North Carolina/North Carolina: Kessler
Memphis/Kansas/Memphis: White & Lemire (tie)
Memphis/Kansas/Kansas: White
UCLA/North Carolina/UCLA: packattack
UCLA/North Carolina/North Carolina: Rayson
UCLA/Kansas/UCLA: Tapani & packattack (tie)
UCLA/Kansas/Kansas: Tapani

Yes, packattack can theoretically win if he loses the Kansas/NC game and Tapani and White can win if either loses the title game.

sdkess · « **Reply #73 on:** March 30, 2008, 08:33:00 pm »

I had a lot of confidence in the #1 seeds this year. They seemed to be a step above the rest.

I was really rooting for Davidson against Kansas since they are located nearby (even though I picked Kansas). I root for my home teams, and it sucked to see them lose. Curry didn't have the hot hand towards the end, and that did them in.

packattack · « **Reply #74 on:** March 30, 2008, 09:06:00 pm »

I followed basketball pretty well this year and knew that all the 1 seeds were far superior(more so than ever before) to the 2's and 3's The Strongest 2 was texas and the strongest 3 was Louisville but I knew UL would have to beat UNC in Charlotte(not likely) and that Texas would choke(very likely) like they do every year under Barnes. I was also rooting for Davidson to beat Kansas because I don't like Kansas much and I wanted to see a rematch of UNC and Davidson.(a game which I know davidson could have won) In the end I am not surprised all 1's advanced simply because they are all on a much higher level than any of the other seeds. The final 4 and championship should be very entertaining now with such quality talent left. Thanks MostFrantic for your time doing the standing updates and possible scenarios.

Thiradell · « **Reply #75 on:** March 30, 2008, 11:26:00 pm »

The 1's are always better, typically one or two of them get UPSET. Which ALMOST happened with A&M against UCLA, ALMOST happened with Davidson against Kansas, ALMOST happened with Mississippi State (!) against Memphis. The only 1 seed that has comfortably made the Final Four is North Carolina (no single-digit margins of victory), who are the overall #1 seed and got to play Washington State and Louisville in Charlotte.

But, yeah, it should be a good final three games.

Quiet Bol · « **Reply #76 on:** March 30, 2008, 11:36:00 pm »

A&M still has not been beaten in this tournament imo.

But congrats to everyone savvy enough to get this final four right, including myself, and especially excluding Shep!

octoinky · « **Reply #77 on:** March 31, 2008, 01:59:00 am »

I think saying it was obv that the 4 #1s would make it is pretty silly, as well. OBVIOUSLY they're better and favored, but if you want to cookie cut, picking all higher seeds will get you a good score every year - but rarely a winning score. I stand by a decision to take an upset of a #1 seed, no matter how much better they may look this year compared to others, because even the best #1 teams are challenged atleast once or twice, and the odds of all of them escaping without losing is relatively small!

I looked over my bracket and realized I did, IMO, pretty darn well, and to only be in 7th is pretty crazy, I think we all did pretty well this year. I guess you can attribute to the general lack of upsets, and not TOO many tossup matches, and all 4 #1s gets all the non-followers (and apparently followers) a lot of success =).

The only double busters I've had in my bracket have been Clemons/Uconn (like 95% of the public, these were the two 12/13s in Tampa) then Pitt's loss I had Pitt > Memphis but else nothing has screwed me too bad this year.

I'm really excited for the games this weekend, Ricky'll be out and he can experience first hand the madness!

Cyberwrath87 · « **Reply #78 on:** March 31, 2008, 10:39:00 am »

I'm also happy about my bracket this year even though I can't mathematically win this pool. I still have a great shot at winning the $250 in my friend's pool - c'mon Kansas over UCLA! Even Kansas over Memphis would give me $125.

Picking Pitt to go the F4 was pretty ballsy, and my Winthrop to the S16 pick wasn't the greatest in hindsight. However, I'm glad I was able to foresee Davidson beating Gtown and WVU beating Duke. Still managed to get 6/8 Elite 8 and 3/4 F4.

I'd never pick all #1 seeds to make it to the final four, and I still probably never will. Not only is it so unlikely, but what's the fun in rooting for the #1's every year anyway?

Quiet Bol · « **Reply #79 on:** March 31, 2008, 11:24:00 am »

I think for many of us, we'd never picked all #1 seeds in the Final Four before, so it feels good to finally do it and be right. The 4 best teams were correctly seeded for once and they didn't disappoint.

Thiradell · « **Reply #80 on:** March 31, 2008, 11:35:00 am »

So would you say that George Mason was one of the four best teams two years ago? Maybe you would, but the four best teams rarely make the Final Four. Upsets happen. Good teams play worse then usual, teams that normally aren't as good as them play better then usual, and manage victory.

TreAKAHotdog · « **Reply #81 on:** March 31, 2008, 02:00:00 pm »

if kansas > unc, i win money. if kansas > all, i win a lot of money.

RWG · « **Reply #82 on:** March 31, 2008, 02:07:00 pm »

I dont think seeds really mean much in a 1 game format. Any game a 1 seed team can have a lapse and it will cost them a victory and thats the real reason there's never been any all #1 seed final 4 until now. Of course this works the other way, and a #1 seed who is actually worse than a #2 seed can still win because its only a 1 game format. It's basically impossible to put probability combined with skill into practical usage while computing results for this tournament.

I'd be willing to bet if you looked at the record for #1 seeds advancing in stuff like the MLB, NBA or NHL playoffs it would be very convincing that seeds are usually correct since more trials = less variance

You guys get the idea hopefully, I dont want this to turn into that 180 post mess like we had in GE.

octoinky · « **Reply #83 on:** March 31, 2008, 06:28:00 pm »

Well, good bracket making is about picking smart upsets. I took Xavier > Duke, not only because Xavier had a moderate chance of beating Duke, but *also* because WVU had a good chance of beating Duke, THEN Xavier would take out WVU. Easier said than done, eh? But dead-end upsets are pretty pointless to do, and a bracket isn't about being perfect its about probability of a given team winning in a certain slot, against any matchup it may be. That is why I often work backwards, instead of "well if this happens, then this could happen, then this could happen, so omg 13 seed in the final 4!!!"

If you agree with 99%, 90%, 80%, 70% for odds of the #1 seeding winning their round 1-4 games, on average, then every 16 years you'd see the #1 seeds in the final 4. I think the main problem is poor seeding often makes #1 seeds close to, even blow, tossups in round 3 and 4, and plenty of teams are underseeded in the 4/5 or 8/9 even, to really screw with those.

Quiet Bol · « **Reply #84 on:** March 31, 2008, 11:59:00 pm »

All of this misses the point though, when people are talking about hard it is for all #1 seeds to make the final four. The result, by itself, may be pretty unlikely, but IT'S STILL THE SINGLE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME. If you're only trying to win a small pool, you don't HAVE TO pick upsets. The larger the pool of participants, the more you gain by strategically placing upsets in your bracket.

octoinky · « **Reply #85 on:** April 01, 2008, 12:16:00 am »

I understood that point completely, and it seems you understand my next point, that if you look at odds of winning with your bracket, the more cookie cutter you are, the more perfect you have to be on the other matches, and probably the less likely to win ESPN you are. But yes, you understand that because.. thats your statement =).

I always predict in a medium setting - I am to please myself with my bracket lol, as I know winning ESPN will never happen, and I go pretty safe but atleast take some stabs in our pool that might not be necessary (davidson>gtown for 20 points? then wi>dav, thats a worthless upset pick for a small pool, really)

rshepherd1000 · « **Reply #86 on:** April 02, 2008, 06:14:00 am »

People loling over the grades are missing the point. The tournament results are completely irrelevant to the discussion.

If youre only trying to beat Golic head to head you are excused from taking four #1s, if you are Jay Bilas picking the final 4 back in October you are also excused.

What baffles me is that QB understands the issue but still went ahead and did it anyway.

Quiet Bol · « **Reply #87 on:** April 02, 2008, 07:08:00 am »

The hope the point of the grading was to embarrass yourself because that's all you accomplished.

Cyberwrath87 · « **Reply #88 on:** April 02, 2008, 10:45:00 am »

Grading them was pretty dumb. I guess it's interesting commentary to read, but it really means nothing.

Would you have graded my friend's bracket an F b/c he picked Texas A&M over UCLA in the 2nd round? It was a very close game, and it definitely could have happened. You're just comparing your opinions to ours and assigning some sort of grade. Didn't you have Gtown and Duke in your Final 4? If I was grading, I would have thought that was a dumb move since both seeds seemed overseeded at the time and easily capable of choking. If you don't want to be risky and just choose all #1 seeds in your final 4, that's one strategy, but you damn well better accumulate a ton of points early on if you want to win.

Whatever, point is, grading is stupid in this kind of a tournament.

Thiradell · « **Reply #89 on:** April 02, 2008, 01:41:00 pm »

It's JOSH! I could NOT figure out who Quiet Bol is! And, yeah, maybe someone else should grade next year. Davidson and West Virginia were both solid Sweet Sixteen picks, and picking an all-#1 seed Final Four is not horrible, it's just overly safe.

Cyberwrath87 · « **Reply #90 on:** April 05, 2008, 11:26:00 pm »

What a night! Memphis beat UCLA and Kansas beat UNC.

I can only get 2nd now in my pool since UCLA lost... but its okay, 2nd is still nice.

Recap of the Kansas/UNC game:
Kansas is up 40-12.
UNC catches up to be down by 4.
Kansas regains momentum and wins by 18.

TreAKAHotdog · « **Reply #91 on:** April 05, 2008, 11:45:00 pm »

in my pool, if memphis wins, i tie for second. if kansas wins, i win.

RWG · « **Reply #92 on:** April 05, 2008, 11:54:00 pm »

lol @ me clinching the win already

D- bracket ftw. Shep = pwned

sdkess · « **Reply #93 on:** April 06, 2008, 12:55:00 am »

My boys at UNC let me down. That first half was just heinous. I almost believed they were going to win it once they cut that lead down so much midway through the 2nd half, but I guess it was too much.

I don't think I have ever correctly predicted the champion since I started doing this several years ago.

MostFrantic · « **Reply #94 on:** April 06, 2008, 12:57:00 am »

R. White was co-leader after the first round but subsequent rounds saw him slip, but never far from the top. 62 games have been played and one, the championship remains for Monday night and White is back at the top. If Kansas beats Memphis, White is the champ but if Memphis wins, White and Lemire will be tied and the tie-breaker kicks in. From ESPN's site, it'll be the difference between each team's actual score and the predicted score added together. The one with the lowest total would be declared the winner.

White's prediction: Kansas: 74, Memphis: 72
Lemire's prediction: Memphis: 112, Kansas: 98

If the game is low to average scoring, White has the edge. But if both offenses go wild, then Lemire has the advantage. Consider the mean: Memphis: 92, Kansas: 86. Again, this is only if Memphis wins.

RWG · « **Reply #95 on:** April 06, 2008, 12:59:00 am »

Yeah but I treated this as a joke and I'm Canadian and don't know anything about NCAA basketball. Everyone else really should be embarrassed.

octoinky · « **Reply #96 on:** April 06, 2008, 02:01:00 am »

Yay, you cookie cut a bracket that happened to end up a cookie cutter result?

what an awful day of results, I despise memphis and kansas, and I doubt i'll watch much of the championship game, like the last few years - as I also despise florida sports

RWG · « **Reply #97 on:** April 06, 2008, 02:04:00 am »

the only kind of cookie cutter I know is the one that actually cuts cookies.

Come on guys, y'all know I'm just jockin' on ya. Obviously I just lol'd at these and I won so you know I'm gonna rub it in a little. Don't be hating on me cause I'm chirpin' its just how you gotta do it in a competition.

wishiwasfamous · « **Reply #98 on:** April 06, 2008, 02:14:00 pm »

Rockchalk Jayhawk ftw

Thiradell · « **Reply #99 on:** April 06, 2008, 02:35:00 pm »

I think Ryan's got it. I expect Memphis to win, but I don't think the scoring will be so high as Lemire said.

What a lame Final Four. Honestly. Kansas goes on a defensive spurt good enough for the NBA Finals, then decide to play like crap and UNC gains 24 back, then they decide to play like crap and let it slip away. And I got really mad at UCLA for hardly ever getting it to Love.

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Author Topic: The Elite's 2008 March Madness Dealie (Read 4727 times)