2008 NFL Picks, Discussion, and Betting Topic

[Ngamer]

8 years later, and we're still going strong! With the first game of the season only a week away now, it's time to get those opening weekend picks set. Good luck to everyone once again this season!

* What is it? Pigskin Pick'Em, a very simple competition we run from ESPN every year where you just pick which NFL team you expect to win each week. Nothing complicated here- don't worry about the spread or the over/under or player performances like in Fantasy; just click your expected winners.

* But I'm no football expert! No need to be one- just join for fun and see how you're able to do. A non-expert (and many times a non-American!) is generally in the running for the overall win every year, so this season probably won't be an exception.

Start here: http://games.espn.go.com/pigskin/frontpage

Sign in and make your Week One picks. Then say Join a Group, you want to search for
The NFL Elite
(as always, our password is just "elite")

Bam, you're all set!

Two important announcements. First, this year's overall champion will be taking home a pretty nice prize package:

Ultimate Gaming Pack: A Circuit City gift card valued at $1,100 (which can be redeemed for an HDTV), an Xbox 360 gaming system, and a suite of four (4) games. (Estimated Value: $1,500.00)

The second place finisher gets something pretty cool as well.

Replica NFL jersey and helmet from the pro team of winner's choosing and an autographed football. (Estimated Value: $250.00)

And just for having the best picks of the week you'll get a hooded sweatshirt and baseball cap. We came within just a couple points of someone (someone named Matt) winning this just last season, so maybe this time it will be you!

Secondly, I'm proud to announce that Shep will be returning as our NFL picks analyst this season, posting full results along with his always-hilarious commentary after each week of Pick'Em and Spread action is completed.

Here's to another exciting season!

[Ngamer]

Also, let's get things off on the right foot by hearing everyone's prediction for who will play in and win this year's Superbowl!

These are always fun to look back on and have a good laugh about at the end of the season.

[wheatrich]

San Francisco over the Jets 27-21 hey I bet it'll look better than someone's prediction at the end of the year.

[Jimbo]

Green Bay Packers over the New York Jets 34-4 in Superbowl XLIII.

[Quiet Bol]

Eagles 24, Pats 17

[Ngamer]

For those more experienced NFL fans, keep in mind we're also running a Spread Pick'Em group that you're welcome to join.

NFL Spread Betting: http://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/pickem

Click Join Existing Group, and you want id #41143
Password is apples

[matt8k]

Yee-haw!
Pats over Giants 27-13.

[DavidK5]

Mark my words: The San Diego Chargers will defeat the Dallas Cowboys in the next Super Bowl.

[..]

The Indianapolis Colts will defeat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the Super Bowl.

[rshepherd1000]

i can already feel neos exasperation at the lack of an espn survivor league yet, and its drowning out the sound of wiff pre-ranking his fantasy draft with broncos reaches!

[youseinthehouse]

QB's pick rules. It's my pick, too, simply because I cannot deny the truth. I don't care what you all say about that.

Although, Wheat, I actually had a dream that SF knocked Eagles out of the playoffs just last night! My one niners fan friend was all over me about it.

[Ngamer]

Sad news for the other predictors; I just looked in my crystal ball, which told me


Chargers - 31, Saints - 21

At this year's Superbowl.

[Thiradell]

With Umenyiora out...

Chargers 30, Eagles 20

[octoinky]

Chargers over Vikings (??? random)

[Quiet Bol]

I just started a Survival group for us.

http://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/survival
Group #18146
Password: elite

All you have to do is pick one team each week that you're sure will win, but you can't pick the same team twice in a season. Last man (or Dayle) standing is the winner!

[Scrambler Fanny]

go go go niners...gone are the days when steve young would have a passer rating of 7000 and the niners would dominate but i gotta stay true to my roots...GO NINERS!!! Niners over Raiders anyone

[rshepherd1000]

you heard it here first...

Eagles 20 Ravens 16

[Boss]

Whoops I had a survival group made already, but oh well.

[dragondragon18]

Tampa Bay over New England 24-17

[Invertigone]

New England Def Minnesota- 30-24

[youseinthehouse]

I joined QB's survivor. Most people seem to be in it. Should I bother joining Boss's too?

[Jimbo]

I like my NYJ pick for Cubie's survival league.

[Boss]

QB's is the official one.  I forgot to post the link right after I made it.

[Ngamer]

Reminder: the first game of the season is Thursday night! Be sure to join any of the above leagues that interest you before that time!

(Actually missing the ESPN or Spread wouldn't be a big deal, should only set you back 1 win, but Survival surely locks once that first game kicks off, so make that a priority.)

[mikerspd]

Actually, I believe Survival just locks out the teams that have already played, so if you want to pick either the Redskins or the Giants, you would have to do it by Thursday before kickoff.  However, the other teams should all be available up until their respective kickoffs (I believe).  I think this because I was forced to pick a shitty team on a Monday night (I'd picked the favorite already) because I failed to make a pick prior to that. *tear*

My failing Super Bowl pick -
makes sure there's an AFC team and an NFC team
Chargers over Cowboys

[RWG]

Detroit Lions > Miami Dolphins in 5 games, 3-0

[rshepherd1000]

fail

[Neo]

I know I bring this up a lot, but I just wanted to say it's officially official;

http://ten.com.au/tv_nfl.html

I'm so happy I could cry.

[ShadowZero64]

Pats - Cowboys 26-19

[Scrambler Fanny]

I will PERSONALLY make sure that the Putriots DON'T win anything...not even a lottery ticket!

[Quiet Bol]

Anybody who has signed up for Survival and not yet made their pick for week 1 should immediately do so! I've just checked with the rules, and after the tonight's game kicks off, all picks are locked. Anybody without a pick made by tonight will be among the first wave eliminated!

[Ngamer]

QB's 2008 NFL Bets

So it's looking like this'll be it for this year:

Dallas Cowboys UNDER 10.5 wins - Risked $500 to win $650
Oakland Raiders UNDER 6 wins - Risked $500 to win $550
Green Bay Packers OVER 8 wins - Risked $202.50 to win $150
Philadelphia Eagles OVER 8.5 wins - Risked $175 to win $100
Detroit Lions UNDER 6.5 wins - Risked $110 to win $100
Tampa Bay Buccaneers OVER 8 wins - Risked $105 to win $75
Seattle Seahawks OVER 8.5 wins - Risked $87.50 to win $50
Baltimore Ravens OVER 6 wins - Risked $58 to win $40

Justin Tuck UNDER 12.5 sacks - Risked $120 to win $100
Wes Welker UNDER 1050 yards receiving - Risked $80 to win $64
Wes Welker UNDER 8 receiving TDs - Risked $70 to win $50
Steve Slaton OVER 425 rushing yards - Risked $62.50 to win $50
Earnest Graham OVER 1000 rushing yards - Risked $57.50 to win $50
Chester Taylor OVER 550 rushing yards - Risked $55 to win $50
Brian Urlacher UNDER 6.5 sacks + ints - Risked $50 to win $50

Clinton Portis to lead NFL in rushing yards - Risked $10 to win $500
DeSean Jackson to win Offensive Rookie of the Year - Risked $10 to win $250
Aaron Schobel to lead NFL in sacks - Risked $5 to win $200
Kyle Vanden Bosch to lead NFL in sacks - Risked $5 to win $100
Trent Cole to lead NFL in sacks - Risked $5 to win $90

These next 3 were placed months ago but they'll soon be resolved:

Adam "Pacman" Jones will be reinstated and will play in week 1, YES - Risked $250 to win $100
Kansas City to be the first team to defeat New England (week 1) - Risked $50 to win $700
Miami to be the first team to defeat New England (week 3) - Risked $100 to win $3500

And lastly, bets with Jimbo:

Cleveland UNDER 8 wins - Risked $100 to win $100
Donovan McNabb to accrue more rushing + passing TDs than Aaron Rodgers - Risked $100 to win $100

Now let's get this season underway!

Edit - got another $115 back from some no-actioned baseball bet so I threw some more on Dallas and added a Baltimore bet
---

Oh yeah, I have an avatar bet again, with DK this year. He wants to stick me with this Hellmuth nonsense for another year!

If the Eagles win the NFC East, I pick his avatar for the next year. If the Cowboys win the NFC East, he picks mine. Any other result means...Nothing!
---


Jimbo's 2008 NFL Bets

So QB and I have an Avatar vs Sig bet, just a basic bet of whoever has the better record, Green Bay or Philadelphia.

Total money risked: $685.

1. Jimbo vs QB for $100 that Aaron Rodgers will have more passing/rushing TDs than Donovan McNabb. Both QBs MUST start game one. After that, bet cannot be voided.
2. Jimbo vs Drag that says Green Bay will beat Minnesota straight up week 1 on Monday Night Football. I am risking $100 and Drag is risking $70.
3. Jimbo vs Wheat that says Reggie Wayne will beat Randy Moss in fantasy points this year. (10 yards a point, 6 points per touchdown) My $90 vs wheat's $100.
4. Jimbo vs Drag that says Jason Witten will beat Antonio Gates in fantasy points (10 yards a point, 6 per touchdown). I risk $95 on Witten to Drag's $100 on Gates.
5. Jimbo vs Wheat for $100 that says Cleveland will finish 9-7 or better, wheat taking a 7-9 or worse season. 8-8 is a push.
6. Jimbo vs Youse for $100 that sets the same identical criteria as Jimbo vs QB invovling Rodgers/McNabb. Both QBs have to be starters in week one however.
7. Jimvo vs QB for $100 that says Cleveland will finish 9-7 or better, QB taking a 7-9 or worse season. 8-8 is a push.
---


drag 2008 NFL bets

To start off the season, Jimbo is putting up 100 (on the pack) to my 70 (on the vikes) on the pack @ vikes to start off the season.
---

[Ngamer]

The '08 season is officially upon us, so it's time to get serious.  All NFL discussion has been compressed to this one topic to keep things easier to follow (except for course for Fantasy).  Remember that Survival has locked, but you can still join the Pigskin or Spread pools if you would like.

Also feel free to get in your Superbowl pred if you haven't done so yet!

[octoinky]

Survival Week 1: Phi and Pit seem to be the best valued picks in this round, but aren't as sure-fire as NE, colts and the chargers. I can't blame anybody for picking the big three this week, especially NE and the chargers with some very easy games, however I prefer to seize any opportunity to use a mid-card team as a moderate favorite and hang on to the big guns for later in the season (assuming you make it..)

[wheatrich]

wheat's week 1 main bet is a... WONG teaser

Philadelphia -1.5 (love this)

Minnesota +8 (ugh)

San Francisco (really ugh) +8

hate the last two but there wasn't another wongable game so here we go. wheat is risking $25 to win $45 on this particular wong. (prop bets didn't leave me with much $ there)

(in case you don't know what a wong is you pick 3 or whatever teams and get the points pushed back by 6--it was shown whatever years ago that any time you can cross the 3 and the 7=profit! right about when I heard of this so did the books and now most lines are adjusted to -3 +3 to make me a sad panda thus any line with 1.5-2.5 you move up and any line with 7.5-8.5 you moved down)

I might take some on Chicago ML later as my rule after the superbowl is now to always bet against the injured QB with a big ML.

[Neo]

Thought I'd posted already, but apparently not, so I'll jump in with a late...

Colts over Cowboys

[Ngamer]

WARNING: This is your last chance to join the Pick'Em or Spread pools for this season. Don't delay any longer!

[Scrambler Fanny]

McCain over Obama in O.T.!!! 24 to 21!!! That is all!!!

[Ngamer]

Ngamer Bets the NFL - Week One

Packers to defeat the Vikings by more than 2 pts, AND the Broncos to defeat the Raiders

Risking $5 to win $10.91


YTD: N/A

[rshepherd1000]

brady

[youseinthehouse]

I'm quickly changing my tune about Yahoo's pick system. The new system is horrible. I was never able to edit my picks after initially making them a few days ago. I'm not sure if that was the case for everybody, or it had to do with my OS (I'd tried it on two different web browsers with no luck). Also, I picked KC +16.5 when that line was available, and didn't get credit for it. I guess only the final line they post counts? Either way, I'd have changed it to NE -0 if I could have, but there was no way for me to edit my picks after the fact. On top of that I can't, for the life of me, figure out why the line was Offed. It's like they were psychic about it. Also it says I didn't pick EITHER side for NYJ/MIA when I definitely did. I just don't understand what's going on with it this year. It doesn't matter too too much, as my picks, as always, are terrible anyway.

Hope you took a bunch on that Chi ML, Wheatrich!

[Jimbo]

Happy about Green Bay's win, so far +$90 with everyone I've bet with. McNabb has a 1 TD advantage over Rodgers and I'm losing my Cleveland/TE/WR bets so far, but the season is very long!

[octoinky]

^^ it says I didn't pick NJY/MIA also, though I know I did

And I, too, hate their new pick system. It should NOT lock so early, ffs. FYI, if they change the line after you make your pick, you're stuck with it. That's how it was last year, too. It makes for a more "fair" scoring system, when comparing multiple users. Obviously if you look at it in terms of betting, that system is simply terrible, as if the line changes, your pick might too obviously.

[wheatrich]

damn SF (got +8.5 btw), I wanted to do Balt/Cin in that teaser instead but noooooooo bodog didn't let me. Darn it. and now I have to bet whatever I've got on Boston to win the east to arb that TB bet (should've done this prior to the NFL props to get better odds and more $ on that)

Anyway, saw this in my open bets.

Single #119535545
Football - NFL Player Props (Prop) Total
How many games will Tom Brady throw 3 or more touchdowns during the 2008 Season?
Player must be on active roster for Week One for wager to have action. Regular Season Only. Singles Only. Max $100.
(4192) Over vs. (4193) Under Under 6½ (-120) Wed@9:00p
Risk US$ 120.00 to win US$ 100.00

ship it

[octoinky]

Put down 120 for me, too, wheat haha

[youseinthehouse]

I just wasn't sure because I didn't do a spread pickem last year (I think), just a regular on Yahoo. There, I was able to edit my picks at any time up to 5 mins before kickoff. This year, I'm in a Spread and a Standard at Y!, and couldn't edit either after the initial picks. Weird. And stupid.

Anyways, I put 5 bucks on a Super Bowl pinata just for fun (Every team 25 to 1), and got Dallas. I was so thrilled with getting a decent team I did it twice more with 2$ on Dallas again, then 1$ on Indy. I got a little cocky and did it for 1 more dollar on St. Louis. Then I quit. So, if I don't kill myself after Dallas potentially wins this year's Super Bowl, I'll earn a cool sum.

Screw Ryan Grant for basically giving Rodgers a QB sneak with his extreme lack of breakaway speed. Still up 3-2 and feeling good looking at McNabb's October and November schedules.

(If he makes it)

[Quiet Bol]

I don't know what your problem was, but I was able to change my picks just fine. I also took KC +16.5 and I wish the line would've stayed there, but when the line went off the board, I switched successfully to NE.

They did, however, lock the Sunday and Monday night games after the first wave of games started.

[wheatrich]

I can't imagine how much fun it would be for Cassell to make a phone call to Leinart this week. Who in college football would've ever thought that would be the order of starter-backup in the NFL? (that and how much would Tennessee and Arizona want a do over to select Cutler right now? loooooool) Texans passing on both Reggie Bush and Vince Young for Mario Williams--how does this look now!. (remember the titans young vs leinart debate--never mind lol)

fun to go back into the past for these things

[Ngamer]

I tried to change my Spread picks on Saturday night, but they'd all been locked down. I assumed it was because everything locked at once when the Thursday night game kicked off? So QB being able to edit up to the last minute makes no sense... Oh well!

[Quiet Bol]

Eh, I think the Pats line went down on Tuesday so I could have changed it anytime between then and Thursday. I thought I had changed them after Thursday, but maybe that was only the non-spread picks. And speaking of the non-spread picks, I think this week is surely the hardest set of picks I've ever seen.