2008 NFL Picks, Discussion, and Betting Topic

[youseinthehouse]

Wow, nice season Cube. That ought to be enough to cover a fellow Eagles fan's hunid stack with Jimbo, right?

PS - How do you want paid, Jim?

[Jimbo]

Paypal, I'll catch you on AIM sometime.

[Neo]

I know everyone stopped caring about Survival Football at least 11 weeks ago, but as one very last gesture of "Holy shit, I made it!", here's a bunch of random and useless stats about my season!

MY PICKS

 

Week 1 - Eagles (38-3 vs STL)
Week 2 - Cardinals (31-10 vs MIA)
Week 3 - Seahawks (37-13 vs STL)
Week 4 - Jaguars (30-27 vs HOU)
Week 5 - Panthers (34-0 vs KC)
Week 6 - Vikings (12-10 vs DET)
Week 7 - Texans (28-21 vs DET)
Week 8 - Jets (28-24 vs KC)
Week 9 - Chicago (27-23 vs DET)
Week 10 - Chargers (20-19 vs KC)
Week 11 - Dolphins (17-15 vs OAK)
Week 12 - Steelers (27-10 vs CIN)
Week 13 - Cowboys (34-9 vs SEA)
Week 14 - Titans (28-9 vs CLE)
Week 15 - Colts (31-21 vs DET)
Week 16 - Patriots (47-7 vs ARI)
Week 17 - Falcons (31-27 vs STL)

 

Sum of points: 500 - 248

All 16 teams were Favourites
All 16 teams were playing at Home
 9/17 teams scored over 30 points (15/17 over 20)

(Bold = used, Italics = picked against)

 

Titans (13-3) - Week 14 (11-1)
Panthers (12-4) - Week 5 (3-1)
Colts (12-4) - Week 15 (9-4)
Giants (12-4)
Steelers (12-4) - Week 12 (7-3)
Falcons (11-5) - Week 17 (10-5)
Ravens (11-5)
Dolphins (11-5) - Week 11 (5-4), (Week 2)
Patriots (11-5) - Week 16 (9-5)
Vikings (10-6) - Week 6 (2-3)
Eagles (9-6-1) - Week 1 (0-0)
Cardinals (9-7) - Week 2 (1-0), (Week 15)
Bears (9-7) - Week 9 (4-3)
Cowboys (9-7) - Week 13 (7-4)
Jets (9-7) - Week 8 (3-3)
Buccaneers (9-7)
Broncos (8-8)
Texans (8-8) - Week 7 (1-4), (Week 4)
Saints (8-8)
Chargers (8-8) - Week 10 (3-5)
Redskins (8-8)
Bills (8-8)
49ers (7-9)
Packers (6-10)
Jaguars (5-11) - Week 4 (1-2)
Raiders (5-11) - (Week 11)
Bengals (4-11-1) - (Week 12)
Browns (4-12) - (Week 14)
Seahawks (4-12) - Week 3 (1-1), (Week 13)
Chiefs (2-14) - (Weeks 5, 8, 10)
Rams (2-14) - (Weeks 1, 3, 17)
Lions (0-16) - (Weeks 6, 7, 9, 15)

 

Highest ranked team I didn't pick : #4 Giants (12-4)
Highest ranked team I picked against: #8 Dolphins (11-5)
Lowest ranked team I didn't pick against: #25 Jaguars (5-11)

Combined record of teams picked:  162-109-1 (0.598)
Combined record of teams picked against: 62-129 (0.325)

I picked against the 7 lowest ranked teams 14/17 (82.35%) of times

Who I picked against
Lions (0-16) - 4
Chiefs (2-14) - 3
Rams (2-14) - 3
Seahawks (4-12) - 1
Bengals (4-11-1) - 1
Browns (4-12) - 1
Raiders (5-11) - 1
Texans (8-8) - 1
Cardinals (9-7) - 1
Dolphins (11-5) - 1

 

Good work, Neo!

[rshepherd1000]

Elite Pickem

Well done to mikers for winning 2008 Elite Pickem and Jon for winning 2008 Spread pickem!

Elite Pickem - Week 17

1 Ng's Picks of Awesome - 15
2 mikerspd miscreants - 14
3 Neo's Aussie Picks - 13

Elite Pickem - Final Overall Table

1 mikerspd miscreants - 171
2 wiff's super DUPER picks - 167
3 StoneHands - 165
4 QB's Surefire Successes - 164
4 DK's Penalized Picks - 164
4 Neo's Aussie Picks - 164
7 Poteau Jedi - 160
7 Boss - 160
9 Ng's Picks of Awesome - 159
10 Shep's Ridic Picks - 158
11 Come - 155
12 Matt8000's Pants - 154
13 Esox Magnus - 150
14 Mor Lemonparty - 144
15 Topes - 140
16 MMF Moles - 136
16 BrewCity Blitzed - 136
18 Larkin - 126
19 Cyber's picks - 118
20 Sucram goes pew pew on u - 101
21 Octo's Picks - 87
22 Woll - 79
23 Tuffy - 55
24 Blindfold - 34
25 Mike - 16
26 Lavery - 11
27 The Right Picks - 10

Elite Pickem - Final Win Table

1 wiff's super DUPER picks - 4
2 Shep's Ridic Picks - 3
2 Boss - 3
2 Mor Lemonparty - 3
2 Esox Magnus - 3
2 MMF Moles - 3
2 mikerspd miscreants - 3
2 QB's Surefire Successes - 3
2 StoneHands - 3
2 Ng's Picks of Awesome - 3
11 Matt8000's Pants - 2
11 Come - 2
11 DK's Penalized Picks - 2
14 Poteau Jedi - 1
14 Cyber's picks - 1
14 Larkin - 1


Elite Spread Pickem

Elite Spread Pickem - Week 17

1 Ng Says Spread'Em - 11

Elite Spread Pickem - Final Overall

1 Ng Says Spread'Em - 135
2 Boss - 129
3 QB's Spread Offense - 126
4 Neo's Aussie Picks - 124
5 Shep's Nonsense - 123
6 Come - 122
7 Dipset's Pick Set - 121
8 DK's Horrendous Picks - 116
9 MMF Moles - 106
10 Octo's Spread Picks - 82
11 Danny Ds picks - 41
12 The Wrong Picks - 16
13 springadero - 14


Elite Survival

Neo survives all 17 weeks

Winner

Neo's Aussie Picks

Dead

Shep's Ridic Survivors (1), Octo's Boss's Picks (1), Sucram goes pew pew on you (1), mikerspd maintainers (1), Drag (1), Boss (1)
Encrypted Salvation (2), springadero (2), packattack (2), springadero (2), Topes (2), Mr. Twishall's Selecsheeowns (2), DK's Natural Selections (2), Jimbo (2), mostfrantic (2)
Insanity (3), Cyber's unsurviving picks (3)
Come (4), Ng Survives & Advances (4), Matt8000s Pants (4), QB's Unwavering Champions (4), Octo's Survival Picks (4)
Eye of the Tiger (6)

[wishiwasfamous]

Congrats mikers! Nice finish.

[rshepherd1000]

as requested here are my preseason bets ...

College Football

Season Wins

Arizona State Under 8.5 regular season wins -140 - WIN
Arkansas Under 6 regular season wins -150 - WIN
BYU Over 9 regular season wins -170 - WIN
Colorado Under 6 regular season wins +120 - WIN
Miami Florida Under 8 regular season wins -175 - WIN
Michigan Under 8 regular season wins -200 - WIN

Cant complain at all about this return. None of these were really close.

Player Props

Tim Tebow Under 18.5 Rushing TD's Regular Season -120 - WIN

This didnt end up being that close either, but Tebow is such a crazy guy that the bet was never completely safe.

NFL

Season Wins

Baltimore Ravens Over 6    wins -123 - WIN
Cleveland Browns under 8 wins +110 - WIN
Dallas Cowboys Under 10.5 wins +121 - WIN
Detroit Lions under 6.5 wins +115 - WIN
Oakland Raiders Under 6.5 wins -163 - WIN
Philadelphia Eagles Over 8.5 wins -175 - WIN
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Over 8 wins -117 - WIN
Green Bay Packers over 8 wins -140 - LOSS
Seattle Seahawks Over 8.5 wins -156 - LOSS

Denver Broncos -1 wins vs Detroit Lions -180 - WIN

I'd make all of these bets again, minus Philadelphia perhaps given the juice. Seattle obviously looks awful but was a reasonable wager at the time it was made. The Packers really should have been a win. Dallas was probably the riskiest bet before the season as we were relying on team chemistry blowups and injuries, which did indeed transpire in abundance but could not have.

Team Futures

Baltimore Ravens to win div +850 - LOSS
Houston Texans to make the playoffs +800 - LOSS

Very happy with the Ravens bet. The Texans panned out pretty much as I expected them to. I thought they'd start slow and pick up to the end of the year as their schedule improved. With a little luck I hoped theyd pick up an extra couple of wins at the start of the year and get a wild card spot. This was a fair risk given the price and how awful the Titans should have been!

Team Props

Baltimore Ravens Over 17.5 pass interceptions +100 - WIN
Dallas Cowboys Under 22 pass interceptions -165 - WIN
Oakland Raiders Under 18 pass interceptions -165 - WIN
Miami Dolphins Under 14 pass interceptions -130 - LOSS

Chicago Bears Under 40 sacks -150 - WIN
Detroit Lions Under 36.5 sacks -150 - WIN
Miami Dolphins Under 32.5 sacks    -140 - LOSS

St Louis Rams Over 31.5    sacks allowed -125 - WIN

Happy with all these, although Miami overperforming by so much was obviously unexpected and annoying.

Player Futures

Clinton Portis to lead the NFL in rushing yards during the 2008 regular season 50/1 - LOSS
David Akers to lead kickers in points during the 2008 regular season 25/1 - LOSS

Both these were good bets. Portis led the league in rushing for a long time before getting injured and was clearly much better than 50/1. The Akers bet hasnt been officially graded but as far as I know he ended up coming 3rd, close behind Gostkowski and Bironas. Gost was always the favourite, but with a little better out of the Eagles offense in that miserable middle of the season and Akers would have won this. Of course had Brady not got hurt its possible Gost would have got more too.

Player Props

Andre Hall Under 460 Rushing Yards -120 - WIN
Chris Johnson Over 575 Rushing Yards -145 - WIN
Steve Slaton Over 425 Rushing Yards -120 - WIN
Michael Turner Under 1060 Rushing Yards    -115 - LOSS

Brad Smith Under 430 Receiving Yards -115 - WIN
Jeremy Shockey Under 675 Receiving Yards -115 - WIN
LJ Smith Under 600 Receiving Yards -125 - WIN
Calvin Johnson Under 1050 Receiving Yards -130 - LOSS
Devin Hester Under 625 Receiving Yards -125 - LOSS

Leon Washington Under 675 Rushing & Receiving Yards -115 - LOSS

Torry Holt Under 91 Receptions -140 - WIN

Donovan McNabb +12.5 Touchdown Passes vs Tony Romo -200 - WIN
Peyton Manning -1.5 Touchdown Passes vs Tony Romo -185 - LOSS

Vince Young Under 3 Rushing Touchdowns +105 - WIN

Donald Driver Over 4.5 Receiving Touchdowns -140 - WIN

Chris Johnson Over 3.5 Total Touchdowns    -140 - WIN
Julius Jones Over 4 Total Touchdowns -115 - LOSS

Julian Peterson Under 9 Sacks -115 - WIN
Justin Tuck Under 12.5 Sacks -125 - WIN
Jamaal Anderson Over 3.5 Sacks     -115 - LOSS

Brian Urlacher Under 6.5 Sacks+Interceptions +100 - WIN

Im happy with most of these too. Still have absolutely no idea how the Tuck bet won but I'll take it. I probably sucked out on McNabb vs Romo given his injury, and had no business coming close to winning the Peyton vs Romo bet (had Dungy not benched Peyton after one series this could easily have won). I underrated Romo at the time I made the bets. The Turner under looks fairly dumb but all evidence points to long time #2 running backs usually not gaining 1,000 yard seasons when they are given a starting opportunity. The Roy Williams trade hurt the Calvin bet but I think I was well on the way to losing that one anyway.


Mid season Props

(19th Nov) 3 rookie coaches to make the Playoffs +750 - WIN

(19th Nov) Neither Warner/Brees to throw for 5000 yards or more -200 - LOSS

The rookie coach bet was always going to need a little luck to hit exactly 3, but we were getting much better odds than expectation at the time. The problem was that the 4 contending teams (Ravens/Falcons/Dolphins/Redskins) were in many scenarios knocking each other out. Sadly the Pats had to pay the price for this bet winning The Warner/Brees bet was basically on Brees and was probably fine at the time. He really had no business covering it with even one game to go!


Alecboys picks

Fading Alec's picks - WIN

For a few weeks of the season I got Alec to give me his picks against the spread, did a little line shopping, and faded them for a fun $5 unit a time. I came out ahead $10 which isnt really significant given natural variance. Indeed my own picks ATS (that I put money on - not the yahoo fun thing) were barely profitable this year, despite routinely beating closing lines. Not enough evidence therefore to conclude that fading Alec is in any way correct, but its still enjoyable!

[Ngamer]

Great wrapups, Shep and Neo! Also very impressed with Neo, mikers, and myself for what ended up being pretty decisive victories in the three pools for this season.

Here is the final table for Pigskin Pick'Em (weeks 10-17 shown).

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     

Results
RNK	ENTRY, OWNER	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	TOTAL	PCT
1	mikerspd miscreants, M. Dolejsi	12	9	10	12	13	11	8	14	171	99.4
2	wiff's super DUPER picks, T. Andrews	10	12	12	11	13	8	9	9	167	97.6
3	StoneHands, P. Keiter	11	13	12	11	12	12	9	8	165	96.1
4	QB's Surefire Successes, J. Lay	9	12	7	10	11	13	6	12	164	95.2
4	DK's Penalized Picks, D. Kovaz	12	12	12	10	12	11	6	10	164	95.2
4	Neo's Aussie Picks, P. Johannessen	11	12	10	9	12	10	6	13	164	95.2
7	Poteau Jedi, N. Stinson	12	7	11	10	12	10	7	12	160	91.0
7	Boss, B. Bosshardt	9	12	9	9	11	11	7	8	160	91.0
9	Ng's Picks of Awesome, J. Bearder	8	11	11	6	12	9	8	15	159	89.8
10	Shep's Ridic Picks, R. Shepherd	11	9	9	8	11	10	5	12	158	88.6
11	Come, s. bryze	12	10	9	10	11	10	8	8	155	85.2
12	Matt8000's Pants, M. H	12	11	11	11	10	10	7	10	154	84.1
13	Esox Magnus, r. Bearder	12	11	8	10	10	9	7	9	150	80.2
14	Mor Lemonparty, J. Söderlund	9	9	9	9	11	8	8	0	144	75.3
15	Topes, R. Sanders	10	12	8	9	11	9	7	0	140	72.8
16	MMF Moles, E. Tapani	13	12	13	11	11	0	0	0	136	70.7
16	BrewCity Blitzed, M. Jansen	10	12	11	8	11	0	5	11	136	70.7
18	Larkin, G. Larkin	10	10	9	9	13	9	7	12	126	66.4
19	Cyber's picks, B. Cutler	11	12	11	0	0	9	0	0	118	63.7
20	Sucram goes pew pew on u, M. Dolejsi	8	5	7	9	10	9	0	0	101	58.9
21	Octo's Picks, P. McCanna	11	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	87	55.5
22	Woll, G. Woll	12	0	0	0	9	8	8	0	79	53.7
23	Tuffy, D. Dykstra	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	55	47.6
24	Blindfold, point & click!, M. Kasten	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	34	40.1
25	Mike, M. Mike	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	16	28.6
26	Lavery, G. Lavery	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	11	24.7
27	The Right Picks, T. Wishall	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10	22.4

---
And here is the final table for the spread.

The Elite

 

 

    [li]Bold = Weekly Winner[/li]   [/list]

 

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       

Rank	Pick Set Name	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	Total
1	Ng Says Spread'Em	8	10	9	8	7	6	7	5	8	8	9	10	7	9	5	8	11	135
2	Boss	11	11	7	5	7	7	5	6	7	10	8	9	6	8	6	7	9	129
3	QB's Spread Offense	9	6	11	6	5	8	8	6	11	5	9	3	8	8	6	8	9	126
4	Neo's Aussie Picks	10	6	8	6	6	8	6	6	5	8	8	10	9	10	4	4	10	124
5	Shep's Nonsense	13	7	11	7	7	10	4	5	6	10	7	7	4	8	4	7	6	123
6	Come	8	10	8	5	5	7	6	7	6	9	8	7	9	8	7	6	6	122
7	Dipset's Pick Set	5	9	7	6	4	8	5	7	9	5	7	7	7	11	9	7	8	121
8	DK's Horrendous Picks	7	4	9	6	5	5	6	6	8	9	6	9	7	7	6	7	9	116
9	MMF Moles	7	6	7	6	8	6	6	6	8	10	11	12	10	3	0	0	0	106
10	Octo's Spread Picks	9	6	10	6	6	9	7	3	8	11	7	0	0	0	0	0	0	82
11	Danny Ds picks	0	11	6	5	5	5	9	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	41
12	The Wrong Picks	8	8	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	16
13	springadero	9	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	14

[Neo]

I came 4th in Pick 'Ems, Spread Pick 'Ems, the Elite Fantasy League and my other Fantasy league.

What a crock!

[matt8k]

Congrats to all the winners (and participants ), and thanks also to shep for weekly updates!
I think I'm getting more consistent at pick'em! Next year. Next year must be my year.