Author Topic: The Elite Marches to the Final Four - '09 March Madness!  (Read 2619 times)

Ngamer

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The Elite Marches to the Final Four - '09 March Madness!
« on: March 15, 2009, 07:01:00 pm »
Holy smokes, it's bracket time!

Yes sir, the greatest playoffs in all of sport are here again- it's college basketball's Big Dance! But which of the 64 teams will come out on top?

As always, we're running an Elite bracket competition at ESPN.com, and everyone's invited. Just start here:

http://games.espn.go.com/tcmen/frontpage

After you log in, pick an entry name (like "Ng's Superpicks!") and then click Create/Join a Group. Do a search for

The Final Four Elite

Our pass, as always, is "elite."

Good luck to all, and let the discussion of which teams wheat feels were snubbed start now!
---

Past Topics/Results

2008 - http://perfectdarkelite.yuku.com?topic=13536 Champ: Kansas, Elite Champ: Goose
2007 - http://perfectdarkelite.yuku.com/reply/68287 Champ: Florida, Elite Champ: mostfrantic
2006 - http://perfectdarkelite.yuku.com?topic=1777 Champ: Florida, Elite Champ: Woll
2005 - Eaten maybe Champ: North Carolina, Elite Champ: ???
2004 - Eaten maybe Champ: UConn, Elite Champ: ???
2003 - http://perfectdarkelite.yuku.com?topic=10917 Champ: Syracuse, Elite Champ: Tisko
2002 - http://perfectdarkelite.yuku.com?topic=10816 Champ: Maryland, Elite Champ: mikers
2001 - http://perfectdarkelite.yuku.com?topic=9174 Champ: Champ: Duke, Elite Champ: Max Jansen

Who will take home this year's trophy?!


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wishiwasfamous

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The Elite Marches to the Final Four - '09 March Madness!
« Reply #1 on: March 15, 2009, 07:18:00 pm »
There will also be a facebook pool up shortly, stay tuned.

RWG

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The Elite Marches to the Final Four - '09 March Madness!
« Reply #2 on: March 15, 2009, 07:40:00 pm »
Go Kansas Jayhawks!!
"I want to be defined by the things that I love. Not the things I'm afraid of, or the things that haunt me in the middle of the night.  I just think that, you are what you love."  Taylor Swift, Daylight.

【 Verax Maneret 】

Thiradell

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The Elite Marches to the Final Four - '09 March Madness!
« Reply #3 on: March 15, 2009, 08:33:00 pm »
Go teams playing against the Kansas Jayhawks!!
nothin' moves me more than a groove that soothes me
nothin' soothes me more than a groove that boosts me
nothin' boosts me more, or suits me beautifully
there's nothin' you can do to me; stab me, shoot me

Wody

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The Elite Marches to the Final Four - '09 March Madness!
« Reply #4 on: March 15, 2009, 08:38:00 pm »
my team is florida but there not good this year so i was thinking louisville would make it all the way
" WASSUP WASSUP!! "  

"Mod Madcapellan: good to hear clemens finally come clean"

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Quiet Bol

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The Elite Marches to the Final Four - '09 March Madness!
« Reply #5 on: March 16, 2009, 12:07:00 am »
Here are the futures I've got so far!

To win the tournament

Memphis 8/1 and 10/1 - Risked $250 to win $2100 (really should have looked around for better odds - 11/1 was available )
Gonzaga 30/1 - Risked $150 to win $4500
West Virginia 60/1 - Risked $75 to win $4500
UCLA 55/1 - Risked $25 to win $1375

To win their regions

Gonzaga 6/1 and 13/2 - Risked $225 to win $1362.50
West Virginia 13/1 - Risked $200 to win $2600
UCLA 12/1 - Risked $75 to win $900

*Edited to add some Memphis 10/1 and some Gonzaga 13/2 to win their region. Thanks Thira, now I'll be down a thousand!

Thiradell

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The Elite Marches to the Final Four - '09 March Madness!
« Reply #6 on: March 16, 2009, 12:31:00 am »
You realize you're gonna be down like $800? I can understand the WVU/UCLA win it all bets, but the rest seem foolish.

That's great QB! I'm happy for you.
nothin' moves me more than a groove that soothes me
nothin' soothes me more than a groove that boosts me
nothin' boosts me more, or suits me beautifully
there's nothin' you can do to me; stab me, shoot me

wishiwasfamous

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The Elite Marches to the Final Four - '09 March Madness!
« Reply #7 on: March 16, 2009, 01:15:00 am »
The Elite on Facebook

gogogo!

NOTE: Requires the CBS Sports application.

RWG

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The Elite Marches to the Final Four - '09 March Madness!
« Reply #8 on: March 16, 2009, 01:18:00 am »
Doesn't matter Tyler. If QB got those bets for better odds than what they are worth (for example, if Memphis wins this tournament more often than every 8 years) then he made a good bet. And making good bets is all that matters. You can lose bets and still have made an excellent bet.
"I want to be defined by the things that I love. Not the things I'm afraid of, or the things that haunt me in the middle of the night.  I just think that, you are what you love."  Taylor Swift, Daylight.

【 Verax Maneret 】

wheatrich

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The Elite Marches to the Final Four - '09 March Madness!
« Reply #9 on: March 16, 2009, 02:35:00 pm »
I only took LSU at 24/1.

Quiet Bol

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The Elite Marches to the Final Four - '09 March Madness!
« Reply #10 on: March 16, 2009, 06:10:00 pm »
Just added the following:

Will a #1 seed win the tournament?

No +190 - Risked $75 to win $142.50

I have the #1 seeds winning more like 36% of the time, not ~65.5%. That may be a low estimate, but even if Memphis counted as a 5th #1 seed, this would still be a good bet.

and...

How many teams from Mid-Major Conferences will advance past the round of 64?

6 teams at 13/2 - Risked $75 to win $487.50
7 teams at 19/2 - Risked $75 to win $712.50

I have 6 teams winning 27% of the time, and 7 teams winning 22% of the time, meaning both are great value at these odds.

All of these are significant errors by Bodog imo, but unfortunately, they were smart enough to set the maximum bet at $75 for now.

RWG

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The Elite Marches to the Final Four - '09 March Madness!
« Reply #11 on: March 16, 2009, 06:42:00 pm »
How much does an American residence cost and is it worth it to have a property there (even if it's a tent and a wireless internet card) so I can play on Bodog?
"I want to be defined by the things that I love. Not the things I'm afraid of, or the things that haunt me in the middle of the night.  I just think that, you are what you love."  Taylor Swift, Daylight.

【 Verax Maneret 】

packattack

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The Elite Marches to the Final Four - '09 March Madness!
« Reply #12 on: March 17, 2009, 12:31:00 am »
Its ironic that I have followed college basketball more this year than I ever have in my life, yet filling out a bracket this year seems much tougher than ever. It feels like there is more parity this year than ever and I can see so many matchups going either way. There is no way that all 4 number one seeds make it to the final four this year.
go pack go

Neo

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The Elite Marches to the Final Four - '09 March Madness!
« Reply #13 on: March 17, 2009, 04:45:00 am »
Aussie Picks are going all the way this year!

wheatrich

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The Elite Marches to the Final Four - '09 March Madness!
« Reply #14 on: March 17, 2009, 08:58:00 pm »
The reason everyone hates the #1 seeds is that there's no real dominant team. Memphis has the fewest losses and that's the least since something in the 70's.

I have the #1 seeds winning this tournament at around 55-60%. I think mich state and Duke are roughly 0% and that really hurts those overall numbers. (wish uconn out first as the #1's was a little better than 7/4 ... ugh) Every bet QB made went the bad way so I have no plays there at all. I think every bet now is -EV in those props section.

RWG

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The Elite Marches to the Final Four - '09 March Madness!
« Reply #15 on: March 18, 2009, 01:42:00 am »
Kansas defends the title more often than once every 50 years. Definitely a +EV bet though not +EG.
"I want to be defined by the things that I love. Not the things I'm afraid of, or the things that haunt me in the middle of the night.  I just think that, you are what you love."  Taylor Swift, Daylight.

【 Verax Maneret 】

Quiet Bol

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The Elite Marches to the Final Four - '09 March Madness!
« Reply #16 on: March 18, 2009, 01:19:00 pm »
Eh, 6 first round wins from the Mid-Major conferences is at 11/2 and I still like it. I tried shifting the winning percentages up and down for all the mid-major teams, and while the probability of 5 wins and 7 wins rose and fell accordingly, 6 wins seemed to be the sweet spot no matter what. Kelly is still telling me to bet a ridic amount, so now that the max has doubled, I'm doubling down as well.

Risked another $75 to win $412.50 (altogether - $150 to win $900)

Ngamer

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The Elite Marches to the Final Four - '09 March Madness!
« Reply #17 on: March 19, 2009, 12:28:00 am »
Warning, warning!

Less than 12 hours remain

before the tip off of the best 4 days in the yearly sports calendar!  Be sure to get your bracket into the pool before then!

thengamer. com

mikerspd

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The Elite Marches to the Final Four - '09 March Madness!
« Reply #18 on: March 19, 2009, 12:49:00 am »
Damn you Ngamer, don't keep propogating the Sucram-credit for that 2002 win (I think there was some confusion about the "Dolejsi" name, and he was a bit more famous at the time, while now he's just more infamous). I won that shit! And I will proudly fail this year!

octoinky

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The Elite Marches to the Final Four - '09 March Madness!
« Reply #19 on: March 19, 2009, 10:46:00 am »
10 brackets... complete! Got my real picks, favorites picks, kenpom picks, vegas odds picks, top seeds, coinflip picks, and 4 brackets with "unique" final 4s that took me 30 seconds in hopes of $$ (lol @ that)

wishiwasfamous

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The Elite Marches to the Final Four - '09 March Madness!
« Reply #20 on: March 19, 2009, 12:14:00 pm »
Good luck Eliters! Go Zags!

RWG

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The Elite Marches to the Final Four - '09 March Madness!
« Reply #21 on: March 19, 2009, 12:36:00 pm »
Well octo, someone wins the money. Why can't it be you?

It should be noted I'm off to an early lead but that's nothing unexpected.
"I want to be defined by the things that I love. Not the things I'm afraid of, or the things that haunt me in the middle of the night.  I just think that, you are what you love."  Taylor Swift, Daylight.

【 Verax Maneret 】

Ngamer

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The Elite Marches to the Final Four - '09 March Madness!
« Reply #22 on: March 19, 2009, 03:27:00 pm »
Elite's Championship Picks (from 34 total brackets)

#1 Louisville - 8
#1 UNC - 8
#1 Pittsburgh - 5
#2 Memphis - 4
#1 UConn - 2
#3 Syracuse - 1
#2 Michigan St. - 1
#3 Kansas - 1
#3 Villanova - 1
#5 Florida St. - 1
#6 UCLA - 1
#4 Gonzaga - 1

Whoa, talk about a good variety!
---

Top Ten Most Likely Champs (based on all worldwide ESPN brackets)
#1 UNC - 27.2% of all brackets
#1 Louisville - 18.2%
#1 Pittsburgh - 17.2%
#2 Memphis - 9.8%
#1 UConn - 7.1%
#2 Oklahoma - 4.4%
#2 Duke - 3.5%
#3 Syracuse - 2.3%
#2 Michigan St. - 2.2%
#3 Kansas - 1.1%
---

Top Ten Strongest Teams (based on x-stats from all ESPN brackets)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         
1UNC50.0
2Pitt41.8
3Louisville40.1
4Memphis29.8
5Uconn26.1
6Oklahoma23.5
7Syracuse21.6
8Duke21.0
9Villanova18.4
10Mich St14.1


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RWG

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The Elite Marches to the Final Four - '09 March Madness!
« Reply #23 on: March 20, 2009, 02:10:00 am »
Goose's entire balance of $4.02 on CentSports.com (if you have never played, it's a free betting site where you start with 10 cents and anything you win can be paid to you; http://www.centsports.com/?opcode=141077) is already up. Will Goose ever be able to scratch up $30 to pay off Shep? Let's take a look!


Syracuse vs. Stephen Austin UNDER 131 (-115) $0.52 to win $0.45
Syracuse vs. Stephen Austin +12 Spread (-115) $0.52 to win $0.45

Tennessee vs. Oklahoma State UNDER 157 (-115) $0.51 to win $0.44

PARLAY North Dakota +10 Spread vs. Kansas (-110) AND UNDER 144 (-105) $0.51 to win $1.18

PARLAY Temple (+200 Moneyline) vs Arizona State AND UNDER 124 (-115) $0.23 to win $0.90

Pittsburgh vs. East Tennessee UNDER 148 (-110) $0.51 to win $0.46

Cornell +13 Spread vs. Missouri (-110) $0.52 to win $0.47

Siena +3 Spread vs. Ohio State (-105) $0.70 to win $0.67


Updates through the day in the elite chatroom!
"I want to be defined by the things that I love. Not the things I'm afraid of, or the things that haunt me in the middle of the night.  I just think that, you are what you love."  Taylor Swift, Daylight.

【 Verax Maneret 】

Ngamer

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The Elite Marches to the Final Four - '09 March Madness!
« Reply #24 on: March 20, 2009, 04:32:00 am »
THROUGH DAY ONE

Of the 5 million brackets that were entered on ESPN, only 25,308 managed to go a perfect 16 for 16 today- aka only 0.5%! No Eliters are left with a perfect, but there are 5 who pulled a 15 for 16 (Ngamer, Ngamer's Dad, Ngamer's Cousin, Swaff, and wheat).

Let's hope tomorrow turns out just as well... and remember to root for that Temple upset!

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wheatrich

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The Elite Marches to the Final Four - '09 March Madness!
« Reply #25 on: March 20, 2009, 04:53:00 am »
I had 3 bets VCU +8, Mich ML and Western Kentucky ML

I had already envisioned the spending of the $ on the last two with 13 minutes left in their respective games and then both teams tried their hardest to lose the game. argh would've had A&M too for a perfect day 1 if I knew they played last year (right now wishing I had made an alternate non Uconn bracket...). VCU just missed a buzzer beater which would've not only ended QB's UCLA bet right there but likely would have put the mid majors over 6 wins.

currently 3 mid majors Gonzaga, WKU, Memphis

Xavier vs Portland State is 4

that leaves fading
Siena, Utah (odds wise = 4/5 or so)
Temple, Utah State (odds wise = 2/3 one will win)
others Cle St, Dayton, N Dakota St (which actually has a bucknell type team...), R Morris, Cornell, SF Austin, Portland St
(ignoring 16's here obv) odds wise=just over 1.

pretty much meaning a VCU buzzer beater would've made 6 very unlikely right now. My personal odds also shift the others a little higher as well.

(I had villanova as the 6th most likely team to win the tournament and american made the stupid move of holding the star out too long with foul trouble--should've thrown him in there when the game got close--I couldn't believe it when nova tied it he didn't there was nothing to wait for at that point)

My bets today*
Ohio State ML The game I saw Siena play they were just so sloppy and dumb (as opposed to WKU which was actually not stupid like every other team in the tournament is they don't jack up wild and crazy shots I was impressed from that regard as now every kid sees 1 v 3 and thinks easy lay up)
Cleveland State ML This is my anti a wacko team bet (see my always bet against Clemson rule) WF is that team for me this season. Arizona over Utah. Well I should've grabbed Utah +3 so I could've snatched the arb here but I picked Zona to win this game and I should take the bet as a small dog as a result (see WKU, Michigan in my personal bracket)
Temple ML I think this one is a little more EV than the ML so we'll go here with this one.

ND State +425 it's ahead of pinnacle's +420 and since I'm giving up juice from pinny banning me I might as well take it.

rant: if they're not going to call traveling then why even bother making it a rule? This season was NBA ish in that regard. Getting annoying yelling (or just it popping in my head) "WALK" on seemingly every play. The ones where the player switches pivot feet constantly is just hilarious. (there's a youtube vid out there this season of a duke player taking 14 steps lol [even under the current system of letting a little bit slide I counted 9])

* because I'm on the sharp lines I don't have every bet available and a lot of these bets I think the point spread and/or ML is a slightly better in terms of EV... if I could bet it so I'm stuck with this stuff.

edit--a futures bet
Cleveland State to make the final four 1000/1.  Hey it's the most +EV futures bet I've seen yet but obv absolutely ridiculous if that hit.  It's worse than hitting 19 on BJ with the dealer showing an 8 prob.
hmmm risk $250 to win 250,000?  ugh....  (obv can't b/c I'm a nit and would have to find somehow a way to arb 100,000 on the other team in an elite eight game lol)  [however I'm now the biggest Cle St fan in the entire elite!]

packattack

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The Elite Marches to the Final Four - '09 March Madness!
« Reply #26 on: March 20, 2009, 11:53:00 am »
I know its not my elite bracket in the group, but I'm proud to say that one of my brackets is perfect so far One out of the 25000 perfects isn't bad.
go pack go

Quiet Bol

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The Elite Marches to the Final Four - '09 March Madness!
« Reply #27 on: March 20, 2009, 05:40:00 pm »
Only certain conferences count as mid-majors under Bodog's terms, so I've currently got 4 wins (Memphis, Gonzaga, Dayton, WKU) and I need 2 or 3 of the following to win (hopefully 2)...

Xavier
Utah
Cleveland State

packattack

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The Elite Marches to the Final Four - '09 March Madness!
« Reply #28 on: March 20, 2009, 05:41:00 pm »
Wow, Dayton continues their trend of @#$@ing me over my entire life. How WVU can lose to a team that crappy is beyond me.
go pack go

Cyberwrath87

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The Elite Marches to the Final Four - '09 March Madness!
« Reply #29 on: March 20, 2009, 05:48:00 pm »
Dayton over WVU also just stabbed me in the heart (lost an Elite 8 team like some of you others). Hopefully nothing horrible happens tonight either!

RWG

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The Elite Marches to the Final Four - '09 March Madness!
« Reply #30 on: March 20, 2009, 06:06:00 pm »
Dayton was an obvious upset. I had it in all my brackets except for the elite final four one, because I didn't want to lose to the crowd in case it didn't happen.
"I want to be defined by the things that I love. Not the things I'm afraid of, or the things that haunt me in the middle of the night.  I just think that, you are what you love."  Taylor Swift, Daylight.

【 Verax Maneret 】

packattack

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The Elite Marches to the Final Four - '09 March Madness!
« Reply #31 on: March 20, 2009, 06:11:00 pm »
Picking Dayton was actually a really stupid pick if you know anything about college basketball, but congrats on that win.
go pack go

RWG

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The Elite Marches to the Final Four - '09 March Madness!
« Reply #32 on: March 20, 2009, 07:55:00 pm »
Getting annoyed that the most douchey, hated, trolling poster on the elite boards is chirping you about college basketball is also really stupid, but congrats on that ability.
"I want to be defined by the things that I love. Not the things I'm afraid of, or the things that haunt me in the middle of the night.  I just think that, you are what you love."  Taylor Swift, Daylight.

【 Verax Maneret 】

Quiet Bol

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The Elite Marches to the Final Four - '09 March Madness!
« Reply #33 on: March 20, 2009, 09:42:00 pm »
lol, as badly as I feel this mid-major bet has gone, I essentially have $225 on Cleveland State now at +366, which is better than any price on the market. I could hedge out but I don't have access to any decent odds on Wake so I'd lose $25 every time Wake won. If Shep hadn't just gone to bed, I would be able to hedge out for $25 profit instead, but f$%# it, I'll just let it ride on Cleveland State. One time, dealer!

Cyberwrath87

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The Elite Marches to the Final Four - '09 March Madness!
« Reply #34 on: March 20, 2009, 09:42:00 pm »
In hindsight, any upset can be "obvious". I really don't see how you can call this one obvious, though. WVU was the better team going in, and they just couldn't hit the mark today. Dayton played very solid, and my only regret was picking WVU for the Elite 8 instead of just stopping at S16. Oh well. And thanks for the centsports site; I'll try to have some fun with it.

RWG

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The Elite Marches to the Final Four - '09 March Madness!
« Reply #35 on: March 20, 2009, 09:47:00 pm »
It was obvious because Dayton has a cool name. Everyone knows you pick whichever team has the cooler name.
"I want to be defined by the things that I love. Not the things I'm afraid of, or the things that haunt me in the middle of the night.  I just think that, you are what you love."  Taylor Swift, Daylight.

【 Verax Maneret 】

Neo

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The Elite Marches to the Final Four - '09 March Madness!
« Reply #36 on: March 20, 2009, 10:00:00 pm »
So, I just realized that, despite filling out a bracket, I forgot to join our group. >_>

I'll post my stuff here later I guess, but I think it's nearly identical to QB's bracket. And fuck WVU.

wheatrich

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The Elite Marches to the Final Four - '09 March Madness!
« Reply #37 on: March 20, 2009, 11:00:00 pm »
argh when the hell was Cle St 366? I would've max bet that
Dayton was over a 4 to 1 dog.  Hardly "obvious"

Quiet Bol

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The Elite Marches to the Final Four - '09 March Madness!
« Reply #38 on: March 20, 2009, 11:59:00 pm »
There's was no Cle St +366...that's what my mid-major bet had turned into going into the final set of games. Thanks Cleveland State!

Ngamer

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The Elite Marches to the Final Four - '09 March Madness!
« Reply #39 on: March 21, 2009, 12:43:00 am »
UPDATE AFTER DAY TWO

Oh wow, now that's more like it! Really cool Dayton over WVU upset, very nearly seeing the first #1 flop out of the tourney after the 16 seeds have had 100 tries at them, and then a completely epic final set of games! With all that in the bank, the new leaders are

Ngamer's Cousin - 28 pts and 99.9 percentile (only 5200 better brackets)
wheat - 26 pts

And then Swaff, Ng's Dad, and Ng's Sister all at 25. You can see how that nailbiter of a win for Wisconsin boosted the WI brackets in the pool!


Now regarding those last 4 games...

[23:32] NgamerAtWork: man oh man!
[23:32] NgamerAtWork: I've got to disagree QB, that's got to be up there with the best 2.5 hours of March Madness of all time, as I was saying earlier
[23:33] NgamerAtWork: we saw a #9 that 60% of the nation was backing upset... with a buzzer beater... in DOUBLE OT
[23:33] NgamerAtWork: a #5 that 79% of the nation was backing upset... in OVERTIME
[23:34] NgamerAtWork: and a #4 that 93% of the nation was backing upset in a totally unexpected BLOWOUT
[23:34] NgamerAtWork: and the Mich St game was at least close for the first half as a small bonus
[23:34] NgamerAtWork: that puts it in Elite territory IMO!
[23:34] CieloAzor: the 5/12 game was supposed to be close anyway
[23:35] CieloAzor: you can pretty much throw the seeds out there
[23:35] NgamerAtWork: then 79% of people shouldn't have taken the 5!
[23:35] CieloAzor: the Cleveland State upset was great but it didn't come down to the wire
[23:36] NgamerAtWork: I think the C St game was almost better because of that though... they didn't just get lucky from deep to hang around and then have a streaky shooter nail one to sneak out a win
[23:36] NgamerAtWork: as you often see from Cinderella
[23:36] NgamerAtWork: they just flat out outplayed Wake in all aspects
[23:36] CieloAzor: I know I enjoyed the game


EDIT - Oh yes, and as of Sienna's 2OT win over OSU there are now zero perfect brackets left in the country!  (Or at least, out of the 5 mil that were sent in to ESPN.)  In fact only 35 brackets even managed to go 31-1 through Round One!

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RWG

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The Elite Marches to the Final Four - '09 March Madness!
« Reply #40 on: March 21, 2009, 12:54:00 am »
I find that hard to believe. There are 2^32 possible combinations...

*googles*

2^32 = 4 294 967 296

Oh shiiiiiiii

Well ok, forget this. Let's assume the 1 vs 16 and 2 vs 15 are always safe and no one should ever pick one of those upsets. There are now 2^24 possible combinations.

16 777 216

Meh, one year it will happen. A perfect first round
"I want to be defined by the things that I love. Not the things I'm afraid of, or the things that haunt me in the middle of the night.  I just think that, you are what you love."  Taylor Swift, Daylight.

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octoinky

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The Elite Marches to the Final Four - '09 March Madness!
« Reply #41 on: March 21, 2009, 01:52:00 am »
Well, essentially every coinflip of mine went the wrong way. Part of me was saying "every team I'm rooting for keeps losing" but those are always biased by my bracket. Looking back over my actual FAVORITES bracket, it is doing better than my real bracket.

favorites bracket - 210
octo's bracket - 200
complete coinflip bracket - 170

My best bracket is at 260. Naturally, it has a WVU > Wake elite 8, so might as well throw that one away too.

I guess the two sets of games I didn't watch had all the good endings. I missed this morning, and tonight. Oh well maybe tomorrow I'll catch something fun outside of a replay!

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« Reply #42 on: March 21, 2009, 02:11:00 am »
2-3 for a +.9u gain. Thank you cle state. 5-3 overall for a +4.6u gain so far. I only bet OSU cause of the virtual home game.

Today I'm betting against my bracket

Texas A&M ML look we all know uconn's vulnerable and I admit it that would be a killer to my bracket so either way win win lol
Texas ML and the spread (1u spread, .5 ML) they've got the talent to match up with Duke and Duke is the third out of the ACC teams I don't like very much in their matchup (see Clemson, Wake Forest)
WKU +10.5 I really like this team a lot and think they should cover at the very least. (no ML line for me)
LSU +11 can't bet ML so ugh here as a result. I do fear a rout cause of the unc home game but I think this team is ridic underrated. (any underrated vs overrated in any form is an automatic play from me)

Cyberwrath87

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The Elite Marches to the Final Four - '09 March Madness!
« Reply #43 on: March 21, 2009, 03:09:00 am »
Apparently on facebook there is only one perfect bracket still with a person who has Mizzou winning it all. Neato!

TreAKAHotdog

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The Elite Marches to the Final Four - '09 March Madness!
« Reply #44 on: March 21, 2009, 12:56:00 pm »
CLEVELAND STATE BABY

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The Elite Marches to the Final Four - '09 March Madness!
« Reply #45 on: March 21, 2009, 03:26:00 pm »
Hey Octo, your coinflip bracket after round 1 was 17/32... talk about variance!
"I want to be defined by the things that I love. Not the things I'm afraid of, or the things that haunt me in the middle of the night.  I just think that, you are what you love."  Taylor Swift, Daylight.

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wheatrich

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The Elite Marches to the Final Four - '09 March Madness!
« Reply #46 on: March 21, 2009, 08:38:00 pm »
I violated my own don't bet after 2 am rule cause I usually blow $ then. god damnit

octoinky

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« Reply #47 on: March 21, 2009, 10:53:00 pm »
Goose....

> dbinom(15,32,.5)+dbinom(16,32,.5)+dbinom(17,32,.5)
[1] 0.4033851

Odds of observing a 15,16, or 17 in my coinflip bracket were 40%. Pretty bad example of variance, IMO



And ugh @ all of today's games basically. So much promise for fun upsets, and... so little success. Oh well!

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« Reply #48 on: March 21, 2009, 10:57:00 pm »
lol really? I didn't know you could calculate the odds of getting some variant.
"I want to be defined by the things that I love. Not the things I'm afraid of, or the things that haunt me in the middle of the night.  I just think that, you are what you love."  Taylor Swift, Daylight.

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Ngamer

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The Elite Marches to the Final Four - '09 March Madness!
« Reply #49 on: March 21, 2009, 11:09:00 pm »
UPDATE THROUGH DAY THREE

Oh man, for the first half of the day I had to double check to make sure we weren't still in Round One, that's how bad the favorites were steamrolling the lower seeds. With the way Nova and Memphis had failed to impress on Thursday I was sure we'd be seeing compelling matchups now that the competition was stronger, but someone have splashed cold water in their faces as all four of those first games were basically over after 15 minutes.

Like yesterday the final set of games tried to save the day, but they just couldn't QUITE manage it this time! Kudos to Mich and WKU and Texas and Washington for keeping it interesting right down to the final couple minutes, but what a shame that none of them could complete their comeback attempts.

With those results in the books, it's time to give congrats to the seven Elters who went a perfect 8/8 today: octo, wiff, Trent, PDO, QB, my Dad... but the REAL story of the day is how my cousin Max, who was already in the 99.9th percentile heading into the day, ALSO scored a perfect 8/8 and has boosted himself into the 100th percentile- only 836 of the 5 million brackets have outscored him to this point!

My Dad sits 3 pts back, then there's wheat 4 back, and QB, my sister, PDO, and Swaff are 5 back to round out the top of the Elite ranks.

Okay, how let's start hoping for a Sunday of basketball that's more like that Friday. Go go Cleveland St!
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