Author Topic: NFL Pigskin Pick'em w/ the Elite! (Read 3045 times)

mikerspd · « **Reply #50 on:** December 18, 2006, 01:31:00 pm »

Bah, that just makes it funnier when you pass by people who have picked every week.

matt8k · « **Reply #51 on:** December 18, 2006, 08:44:00 pm »

Quote

Quote:
makes it funnier when you pass by people who have picked every week

Hell yeah.

rshepherd1000 · « **Reply #52 on:** December 21, 2006, 10:50:00 am »

Just two weeks left of the pickem season so things should get very interesting now! First a check on last week:

1 mikerspd nosepickers - 11
bryze - 11
Andrews - 11
Octo's Picks - 11
Sucram's crappy picks! - 11
Graves - 11
Slayer's Entry - 11

Thats a seven-way tie for first with 11 picks! And it was looking a lot worse on monday morning before the colts stuffed the bengals and knocked a few entries down. Mikers does whats needed to keep in the hunt for first place overall and is joined by a resurgent Wiff, peaking come and leaderboard tweeners octo, sucram, graves and slayer.

Overall week 15 made a reasonable impact:

1 BrewCity Blitzed - 141
2 darth rob - 140
3 mikerspd nosepickers - 139
packattack - 139
5 bryze - 138

After a steady week Ngamer cousin is now the clear leader on 141 and a 98.7 percentile! A poor week from me let pushed my position down to second with 141 and a 98.1 percentile. Topping the weekly leaderboard pushed mikers up to third and closer to no.1 overall. Hes now just 2 behind the leader on 139 and 97.3. Pack is still very much in the hunt in a tie for third. Come is really peaking at the right time and with 138 picks and a 96.5 percentile thats just THREE off the top!

With only two weeks left people will have to start taking a few risks if they want to be no.1 in elite pickem this season! Dont take that ultimate risk though - make sure you

dont forget those picks!

packattack · « **Reply #53 on:** December 21, 2006, 02:53:00 pm »

I was having a mediocre week, tied with the rest in the lead for the week with 10 going into MNF. Me and brewcity had the same picks all week so I couldn't gain any ground on 1st so I changed my colts pick to Cinci and figured I needed that risk to finally gain some ground on 1st. Turns out he picked cinci too and we had identical picks for the week. I coulda been 2nd alone and one out of 1st. Guess I'll have to be extra sneaky now this week. Its at least fun to be in contention this time around. :rollin

Ngamer · « **Reply #54 on:** December 25, 2006, 07:06:00 pm »

Two nights ago, Jimbo bet $20 against QB's $100 that the Packers would make the playoffs this year. At the time it seemed like at least a 5:1 risk, but after things worked like clockwork for the Pack yesterday, the tide is turning! Here's an update on the situation.

* The Packers NEED to beat the Bears on Sunday in Chicago (of course).

* The Rams NEED to lose to the Vikings in Minnesota (both would be 8-8, but the Pack loses the first tiebreaker because the Rams beat us head to head).

That's the bad news. Here's the good news:

* The Panthers don't matter; although they'd be 8-8, they lose the 2nd tiebreaker (Pack are 7-5 in NFC, Panthers could only get to 6-6).
* The Falcons don't matter; although they'd be 8-8, they lose the 2nd tiebreaker (Pack are 7-5 in NFC, Falcons could only get to 6-6).

And most importantly.

* The Giants MIGHT not matter either. If they lose to the Redskins they're out (of course), but they could also miss out with a win on Saturday. Breakdown!
Record: 8-8 for both the Pack and the Giants, tie
2nd Head to Head: Did not play
3rd NFC: 7-5 for both, tie
4th Common Opponents: both played the Eagles, Saints, Bears, and Seahawks (meets the min requirement for 4 common teams).
Giants Record against the 4 = 1-4 (beat only the Eagles)
Packers Record against the 4 = 1-4 (beat only the Bears)
Another tie!

5th Strength of Win: This is the combined winning percentage of all the teams you've beaten.
Giants Beat: Eagles, Skins, Falcons, Cowboys, Bucs, Texans, Panthers
Packers Beat: Lions, Dolphins, Cardinals, Vikings, 49ers, Bears

CURRENTLY...
Giants Strength of Win = 45-60, .429%
Packers Strength of Win = 38-52, .422%

So if the season ended today, the Giants would advance to the playoffs as the NFC 6 seed based on the 5th tiebreaker. HOWEVER, that margin is so tiny that the slightest result could turn things around entirely next weekend. As an example, if things went as poorly as possible for the Giants (Lions beaten by Cowboys, Bucs lose to the Seahawks, Texans topped by Browns, Pants knocked off by Saints) and as good as could be for the Pack (Fins trip up the stumbling Colts, hot Cards outlast the Chargers, charging 49ers blast by the Broncs), that Strength would swing to

Giants = 46-66, .411%
Packers = 43-53, .448%

with Green Bay easily advancing. As you see, it's very much up in the air.

Now, if the Rams win, the Giants win, AND the Pack win... I don't know.

wheatrich · « **Reply #55 on:** December 25, 2006, 10:52:00 pm »

ngamer--the rams don't matter in your scenario if the giants win. The eagles win really cleans up a ton of potential scenarios (there was a scenario in which the falcons despite being last in the current pecking order could have gotten the 5 seed and GB even then could only get seed #6). In fact ngamer--the rams only matter if ONLY GB and Stl are tied at 8-8.

edit--plus your strength of victory is off--those have to be even in terms of the number of games (monday night both would add 1-1 regardless of what happened to that total) Somehow you are off 1 game.

Man if the eagles had lost I'd have to make one hell of a long post describing some ridiculous scenarios. I'll summarize tomorrow for those of you not sure what the hell they need (and I don't blame you).

packattack · « **Reply #56 on:** December 26, 2006, 01:51:00 am »

Looks like its a 3 way tie at the top with mikers, brew, and myself going into the final week. (I've really been on the wrong side of every last second FG this year) A few others are just a couple behind. Should be an interesting week coming. Personally, I hate the final week because I don't like trying to guess which teams will rest their players and stuff. Typically a lot of the good teams going to the playoffs lose this week so its going to be tricky.

Green Bay won't go to the playoffs Jon because they won't beat the bears. The bears could throw out their 2nd or 3rd team and will beat GB.

wheatrich · « **Reply #57 on:** December 26, 2006, 07:43:00 am »

espn beat me to it

sports.espn.go.com/nfl/ne...id=2674321

Some of these are fun... team X loss Team Y winning who'd have the same record so they'd win the 3 team tiebreaker but would lose head to head to team Z. Fun stuff. An eagles loss would have made that whole thing another 2 pages. I'm not kidding. There would have been scenarios like team x loses and 3 of the following 4... (heck, as I said earlier there was a scenario in which Atl would have gotten the 5 seed with a Phi loss despite being last in the current pecking order--amazing lol [only 6 games would have had to go right lol])

These are the absolutes
Atl MUST have a Car loss
KC MUST have a Den loss (despite Den pwning in the conf record KC would take them out in the division despite having no tiebreakers against others) A KC loss/tie and Den is in regardless.
The rest of the contenders are rooting highly for KC and Oak. losses by these 2 and everyone else is eliminated.

GB at Chi was the game that got moved to the night. Great another Madden Farve lovefest. Just what I needed

(btw--GB can be eliminated before this game even starts)

Hang on pack--Chi was one dropped pass away from losing to Detroit. Chicago's def isn't looking good now (heck for some reason Hester's playing decent CB minutes and he's TERRIBLE at CB

What the hell is that idiot (yes I think Lovie Smith is an idiot for a on field decision head coach) doing? *reference see playoffs last year and he's done some real mind boggling moves this season if any of you ever noticed anyway.

Teams that need at least 3 others to lose and a win (aka they're screwed)
KC, Jax, Stl, Atl, Ten

Mathematically it's going to be
Den (only way can get knocked out is loss to SF at home and KC beats Jax)
Jets (have to lose to Oak at home--also many scenarios with a Cin loss get them in still)
NYG (tough game at Wash but everyone in the NFC wild card race is on the road at non terrible opponents (well except Stl at Minn)! they could easily all lose)

Sat night NYG at Wash (seems like Wash should win this) on the network that I only get will clear up a lot of this one way or another.

rshepherd1000 · « **Reply #58 on:** December 26, 2006, 09:11:00 am »

Alright then. This may not be the last recap of the season, but it might just be the most important! With just one week to go this is the final chance to get your strategy right and win it all!

Heres week 16 results:

1 haley - 11
2 packattack - 10
mikerspd nosepickers - 10
bryze - 10
Sanders - 10
Ng's Superpicks! - 10
Clark Kills - 10

Comet wins the penultimate weekly title with 11 correct picks. A six-way tie for 2nd on 10 picks is made up from pack, mikers, come, sanders, the artist formerly known as The Ngamer and Clark. Thats a pretty strong list there and with some of those guys challenging for the overall title it ensured some big movement on that leaderboard!

Which leaves overall looking something like this at the top:

1 packattack - 149
BrewCity Blitzed - 149
mikerspd nosepickers - 149
4 bryze - 148
5 darth rob - 147

Now a three way tie at the top! pack and mikers both had strong individual weeks enabling them to make up the ground on Ngamer cousin (The Ngamer)and tie at 149 picks and a 98.2 percentile. Come continue his charge up the leaderboard and is now in second alone at 148 and a 97.5 percentile. Well I thought id try take a few risks a week early since I figured everyone would chance a few picks on the last week and cancel each other out. Needless to say it didnt work so I dropped down to alone at 5th with 147 picks and a 96.7 percentile.

With one week to make sure you

dont forget those picks!

rshepherd1000 · « **Reply #59 on:** December 26, 2006, 09:12:00 am »

Scenarios

All of the following can still 'theoretically win'

packattack -0
BrewCity Blitzed -0
mikerspd nosepickers -0
bryze -1
darth rob -2
D-12 -3
haley -4
Andrews -4
Mike -5
Esox Magnus -5
Sanders -7
Octo's Picks -7
QB's Mediocre Picks! -9
Ng's Superpicks! -12
Boss -14
Sucram's crappy picks! -15
Clark Kills -16

Those tied for first average 10 picks on a week with 16 games. Assuming that they repeat this performance this week then the rest of the players have to do at least the following to win:

packattack - 11 picks
BrewCity Blitzed - 11 picks
mikerspd nosepickers - 11 picks
bryze - 12 picks
darth rob - 13 picks
D-12 - 14 picks
haley - 15 picks
Andrews - 15 picks
Mike - 16 picks
Esox Magnus - 16 picks

some of you need to be taking several gamble picks!

wheatrich · « **Reply #60 on:** December 29, 2006, 03:31:00 am »

for NYG to miss the playoffs with a win
ALL of the following MUST happen
GB over Chi
SF over Den
Ariz over SD
Det over Dal
Mia over Ind
Min over Stl
N.O over Car
Hou over Cle
TB over Sea

Obviously this scenario is easy attainable--just flip a coin and get it perfectly right 9 consecutive times to see how easy it is!

Ngamer · « **Reply #61 on:** December 29, 2006, 03:54:00 am »

Afraid you have been misinformed, wheat.

Note: N.Y. Giants clinch strength of victory tiebreaker over Green Bay if:
1. Detroit or Minnesota lose
2. Any two of the following results occur: Arizona loss, Miami loss, San Francisco loss, Carolina win, Houston win, Tampa Bay win.

EDIT - Two can play at this game!

After the Packers win and Giants lose, ALL of the following would need to happen for the Pack to miss the playoffs:

Rams win against the Vikings on the road
Falcons lose to the Eagles
Panthers lose to Saints

That's about as likely as a Georgia sunset!

wheatrich · « **Reply #62 on:** December 29, 2006, 11:32:00 pm »

The same company that you got that information from was the same company where I got that list from.

edit--ngamer is technically (but not realistically) correct--they only need eight of those games (can't be det or minn though)

BUT
then it goes to strength of schedule tiebreaker and GB needs these results
NE over Ten
and 2 out of the following 3 to tie (all 3 would win)
Jax over KC
Buf over Balt
NYJ over Oak

if they're still tied it goes to combined ranks in pts scored and allowed. Right now NYG is 2 ahead of GB in pts allowed and that's not including the teams that should fill in. Thus GB needs to shutout Chi plus have a shitload of low scoring games like 3-0's and would need at least 47 pts scored themselves to go ahead in the other one.

Since that's not likely to happen... they'll need something like 103-0.

Yeah, these scenarios are ridiculous aren't they?
GB has a group of 9 teams that have to win or 12 out of 13.

rshepherd1000 · « **Reply #63 on:** January 04, 2007, 07:09:00 am »

Well a little anti-climax for a finish thanks to espn incompetence but heres the results from the final week:

1 D-12 - 11
2 packattack - 10
bryze - 10
darth rob - 10
Mike - 10
Octo's Picks - 10
Sucram's crappy picks! - 10
Woll - 10
Slayer's Entry - 10

Brandon made a great attempt to move up the leaderboard by winning the final week with 11 picks. A multitude of people had 10 correct, including one of the overal leaders packattack. As we'll see below this was a crucial performance given how other challengers were also in the group with 10 right. Note that despite picking the eagles (and others verifying this pick once the games had started and everyones picks became visible) espn has stil not updated to award me that pick so i should have got 11. Similarly Ngamer cousin BrewCity, who was in a tie for first overall last week, was inexplicably given a score of 0 for the week. This again depsite others verifying that he had infact picked.

Fortunately none of these screwups affected the overall winner:

1 packattack - 159
2 bryze - 158
mikerspd - 158
4 darth rob - 157
D-12 - 157
6 Mike - 154
haley - 154
8 Octo's Picks - 152
Andrews - 152
10 Sanders - 151
11 BrewCity Blitzed - 149
12 Ng's Superpicks! - 146
QB's Mediocre Picks! - 146
14 Esox Magnus - 144
Sucram's crappy picks! - 144
16 Boss 142 -
17 Woll 134 -
18 Clark Kills - 133
19 Graves - 127
Neo's Aussie Picks - 127

Congratulations to pack who wins Elite Pickem 2006-07!! 159 picks and a 98.2 percentile ensured victory this year. Come and mikers finish in a tie for second on 158 and 97.6 percentile. Great effort by both, especially come who made up a lot of ground in the final weeks of the season. Had the Bills beat the Ravens on Sunday he would have won it all! Brandon and myself tie for 4th on 157 and a 96.8 percentile. Unfortunately a lot of the rest of the top20 is a little misleading on performances for the whole season. Ngamer BrewCity was not the only player to appear to have 0 picks this week. Clark, Graves, Neo, Ngamer Dad all had similar issues and thus their final position doesnt really reflect how well they picked this year.

Overall this was a very fun season. The competition was intense with several leadership changes throughout the 17 weeks. Thanks to everyone who participated and I hope you are all as excited about next years contest as I am!

Dont forget that whilst the pickem contest is over this year theres still picks to be made for the playoffs! See Jim's thread here:

packattack · « **Reply #64 on:** January 04, 2007, 02:22:00 pm »

That sucks that ESPN screwed up so many peoples picks in the final week. I saw brewcity had no picks and was curious as to why. What would his final score have been? I remember ESPN cost me 2 picks early in the season and I stopped doing my spread picks after they gave me a bunch of NP's one week where I did them all. ESPN isn't very good at fixing their problems, thats for sure. Hopefully I can parlay my nfl pick'em success into march madness. I'll post my playoff predictions later this week.

wishiwasfamous · « **Reply #65 on:** January 04, 2007, 03:08:00 pm »

lame/10

congrats to everyone that was in 1st for at least one week!

rshepherd1000 · « **Reply #66 on:** January 04, 2007, 03:34:00 pm »

yeah ive waited a few days to give them a chance to sort it out but nothing has been resolved

chat discussion of who picked who as soon as games started and picks were visible:

early games:

Comeasur37 (18:01:36): Rams 11, Vikes 9
Comeasur37 (18:01:48 ): Rob, Come, Pack, Mikers took Rams
Comeasur37 (18:01:52): Brew took Vikes!
Rshepherd1000 (18:01:54): ugh
Comeasur37 (18:02:06): Panthers 4, Saints 16
Rshepherd1000 (18:02:09): need some proper splits here
Comeasur37 (18:02:19): Rob took Pants, others took Saints
Rshepherd1000 (18:02:22):

Comeasur37 (18:02:33): Browns 4, Texans 16
Comeasur37 (18:02:40): Everyone took Texans
Comeasur37 (18:02:50): Boys 20, Lions 0
Comeasur37 (18:02:57): Everyone took Boys obv
Comeasur37 (18:03:04): Jags 5, Chiefs 15
Comeasur37 (18:03:12): The Chiefs don't lose at home in December!
Comeasur37 (18:03:17): but pack still took the Jags!
Rshepherd1000 (18:03:20): so brew def picked?
Comeasur37 (18:03:22): Everyone else took Chiefs
CieloAzor (18:03:23): Jags are good.
Comeasur37 (18:03:27): Yes, all but the first game, Rob.
Comeasur37 (18:03:42): Pats 8, Tits 12
Comeasur37 (18:04:14): Come and Pack took the Pats
Comeasur37 (18:04:21): Rob, Brew, and Mikers took the Tits!
Rshepherd1000 (18:04:25): did i really?
Rshepherd1000 (18:04:27): wow
Comeasur37 (18:04:30): Jets 20, Raiders 0
Comeasur37 (18:04:34): Everyone on Jets
Comeasur37 (18:04:45): Steelers 3, Bengals 17
Comeasur37 (18:04:50): Everybody on Bengals
Comeasur37 (18:05:03): Hawks 12, Bucs 8
Comeasur37 (18:05:21): Brew and Rob took Bucs
Comeasur37 (18:05:27): Pack, Come, and Mikers took Hawks
Comeasur37 (18:05:41): So the games that are meaningless to us are...
Comeasur37 (18:06:04): Browns/Texans, Boys/Lions, Jets/Raiders
Comeasur37 (18:06:12): All other games have at least one difference!

(note that brew may still have picked in the giants match though since it could just have not updated like its done now)

afternoon games:

Comeasur37 (21:18:35): All the top 5 have the same picks for afternoon games..
Comeasur37 (21:18:42): Except my upset special of Bills over Ravens!

late game:

not sure how picks went

.. · « **Reply #67 on:** January 04, 2007, 04:35:00 pm »

Yeah, congrats Pack. I knew I had to make up some ground in the final week, hence the Bills pick. I really struggled between them and the Panthers, and took the wrong one in the end because the Pants always blew it for me the whole year. I was really surprised that you picked the Jags over the Chiefs in the final week... KC NEVER loses at home in December! Good show anyways, I'll get you next year.

packattack · « **Reply #68 on:** January 04, 2007, 07:23:00 pm »

Thanks,

I knew that K.C. never loses at home in December. It dated back to like 1992 or something before they lost to Baltimore early in December at home this year. I thought I needed at least one upset to win the thing so i picked that. Plus, jacksonville has this thing about playing up to good opponents and down to the bad ones. I picked them using this logic the last 2 weeks against new england (who I usually never pick against) and K.C. and it bit me twice. I'd say the team who screwed me the most this year is a toss up between the rams, seahawks, falcons and bengals.

mikerspd · « **Reply #69 on:** January 05, 2007, 05:59:00 pm »

The Rams and Seahawks screwed most everyone though.

I actually tried to change my pick of the Chicago/GB game once I realized I was 1 back, but even 2 hours before gametime the picks had closed. *sigh* Too bad Tennessee finally blew their streak once I decided to join their bandwagon.

Great job pack.

Ngamer · « **Reply #70 on:** January 08, 2007, 07:09:00 am »

Full-bodied results, for the sake of history!

1 packattack , M. Flees 11 12 7 9 14 6 6 9 7 9 10 10 10 9 10 10 10 159 98.2
2 bryze Entry1, s. bryze 8 13 8 9 11 8 6 7 9 9 10 11 7 11 11 10 10 158 97.6
   mikerspd nosepickers , M. Dolejsi 9 12 10 8 12 7 7 5 9 9 10 12 9 9 11 10 9 158 97.6
4 darth rob , R. Shepherd 9 11 9 10 13 7 7 8 8 8 11 13 8 9 9 7 10 157 96.8
   D-12 , B. Sanford 8 13 8 7 14 9 8 6 9 9 11 10 6 9 10 9 11 157 96.8
6 Mike Entry1, M. Mike 9 12 9 11 12 6 7 7 7 7 10 12 8 9 10 8 10 154 93.9
   haley Entry1, s. haley 9 10 11 7 11 8 8 7 8 8 7 11 8 11 10 11 9 154 93.9
8 Octo's Picks , P. McCanna 9 11 8 9 10 9 4 7 7 9 9 12 9 10 11 8 10 152 91.6
   Andrews Entry1, T. Andrews 11 12 11 9 11 6 10 6 7 9 8 11 7 8 11 8 7 152 91.6
10 Sanders , R. Sanders 10 13 8 10 12 8 7 5 8 7 9 10 8 7 10 10 9 151 90.4
11 BrewCity Blitzed , M. Jansen 9 11 10 7 13 8 6 7 8 10 8 12 11 11 10 8 0 149 88.0
12 Ng's Superpicks! , J. Bearder 8 11 7 7 11 9 7 8 8 7 9 10 8 8 9 10 9 146 84.6
   QB's Mediocre Picks! , J. Lay 9 14 8 10 14 7 5 8 6 10 12 10 7 6 9 5 6 146 84.6
14 Esox Magnus , R. Bearder 8 11 10 8 11 7 7 7 9 10 8 11 9 10 10 8 0 144 82.4
   Sucram's crappy picks! , M. Dolejsi 10 11 10 8 12 10 7 4 9 7 8 12 9 6 11 0 10 144 82.4
16 Boss , B. Bosshardt 9 11 8 9 14 5 5 7 7 10 9 11 7 8 8 7 7 142 80.5
17 Woll , G. Woll 7 11 5 10 5 6 5 7 7 9 8 11 9 7 9 8 10 134 73.5
18 Clark Kills , D. Clark 10 11 10 9 11 8 3 8 5 9 11 8 0 10 10 10 0 133 73.0
19 Graves , C. Graves 9 8 5 6 12 6 6 6 8 5 8 10 10 9 11 8 0 127 70.6
   Neo's Aussie Picks , P. Johannessen 9 12 9 9 14 7 5 8 8 9 10 11 7 8 1 0 0 127 70.6
21 Matt8000 the Clueless , M. Hedding 7 11 0 6 9 6 5 6 7 2 9 12 9 10 1 8 9 117 67.5
22 DarkHawks Supergood Picks , A. Day 8 12 9 8 13 9 5 6 9 8 0 8 9 11 0 0 0 115 67.0
23 Slayer's Entry , M. Burden 9 12 7 9 0 6 0 9 0 8 0 0 7 0 11 0 10 88 61.9
24 Fallens , I. Fallens 9 12 10 7 12 5 9 7 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 80 60.4
25 Thiedeman Entry1, G. Thiedeman 10 11 10 9 11 8 6 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 73 59.1
26 Woll's Roommate , E. Tribley 9 13 1 8 6 4 7 3 8 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 66 57.8
27 Strom Entry1, R Strom 8 4 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 21 47.1
28 King Entry1, B. King 0 0 0 0 12 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 46.6
29 PSK , G. Shreiber 6 0 0 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 42.6
30 UA Fort Smith Lions , N. Stinson 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 35.5
31 KC_Chiefs_Pismistic , A. Pism 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 31.7
   The Amazings , D. Olson 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 31.7
33 drummond Entry1, l. drummond 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0

KATHLEENTHOMPSON · « **Reply #71 on:** January 19, 2007, 01:09:00 pm »

Saints over Bears by 7 :rollin

News:

Author Topic: NFL Pigskin Pick'em w/ the Elite! (Read 3045 times)