The Sylvester-Tip 2013

[RWG]

A long lost elite tradition is the Sylvester-Tip.  Now, I don't even know where Jimmy's cousin Martin Bauer came up with the term Sylvester-Tip, since googling it provides nothing, but the last time this was done was 4 years ago, so here is a little recap:  The Sylvester-Tip is where you predict new WRs and new top 10 players in the new year.  Then we can look back at the end of the year (this never happens) and see how right or wrong we were.  So without further ado...


Current WRs

Dam: 0:53 / 1:16 / 1:55
Facility: 0:43 / 0:52 / 0:53
Runway: 0:22 / 0:22 / 0:35
Surface 1: 1:02 / 1:48 / 1:48
Bunker 1: 0:17 / 0:21 / 1:02
Silo: 1:01 / 1:09 / 1:22
Frigate: 0:23 / 1:01 / 1:05
Surface 2: 0:48 / 0:49 / 1:25
Bunker 2: 0:24 / 0:44 / 0:55
Statue: 2:19 / 2:18 / 2:18
Archives: 0:16 / 0:54 / 0:54
Streets: 1:12 / 1:55 / 1:55
Depot: 0:25 / 0:40 / 0:47
Train: 0:58 / 1:23 / 1:50
Jungle: 0:50 / 0:53 / 0:54
Control: 3:58 / 4:05 / 4:08
Caverns: 1:01 / 1:19 / 1:32
Cradle: 0:34 / 0:35 / 0:36
Aztec: 1:26 / 1:35 / 1:40
Egypt: 0:45 / 0:46 / 0:46


Current Top 10

1. David Clemens
2. Rayan I.
3. Henning Blom
4. Bryan Bosshardt
5. Marc Rützou
6. Ilari Pekkala
7. Ryan White
8. Jimmy Bauer
9. Shawn Johnson
10. Eddie Lovins


So post your own versions of these lists according to what you believe will be accurate on Dec 31, 2013!


2006 thread: http://elite.speedrunwiki.com/forum/index.php?topic=1035.0
2007 thread: http://elite.speedrunwiki.com/forum/index.php?topic=884.0
2008 thread: http://elite.speedrunwiki.com/forum/index.php?topic=13382.0
2009 thread: http://elite.speedrunwiki.com/forum/index.php?topic=14194.0

GoldenEye overall time evolution: http://quentin.meunier.free.fr/gewrs/timecutter.php?year=2012


It is interesting to note how much we slowed down in 2009, and especially reading some of the predictions in the 2009 thread that still haven't happened.  Feel free to discuss that kind of stuff in here as well.   But Ace and others have shown this year that there are still untieds out there to be had.  2005 was also a pretty dead year but then we exploded from 2006-2008.  So will 2013 be a dead year since we're always getting closer to maxing this game, or will we explode with WRs-a-plenty for all to be had?

Let's see what you think!

[RK]

Dam: 52/1:16/1:55
Facility: 43/52/52
Runway: 22/22/34
Surface 1: 1:02/1:48/1:48
Bunker 1: 17/20/1:01
Silo: 1:00/1:07/1:21
Frigate: 22/0:59/1:04
Surface 2: 48/49/1:24
Bunker 2: 24/0:44/0:54
Statue: 2:18/2:18/2:18
Archives: 16/54/54
Streets: 1:12/1:54/1:54
Depot: 0:25/0:40/0:47
Train: 0:58/1:23/1:49
Jungle: 50/53/54
Control: 3:57/4:05/4:06
Caverns: 1:01/1:18/1:31
Cradle: 34/35/35
Aztec: 1:25/1:34/1:39
Egypt: 45/46/46

[50]

2013 will be a near maxed year according to Koch

Dam: 0:52 / 1:16 / 1:55
Facility: 0:43 / 0:51 / 0:51 (I hope)
Runway: 0:22 / 0:22 / 0:35 (hope 34 but I doubt that)
Surface 1: 1:02 / 1:48 / 1:48
Bunker 1: 0:17 / 0:21 / 1:02 (20 would be sexy)
Silo: 1:00 / 1:09 / 1:22
Frigate: 0:23 / 1:00 (59 Henning ) / 1:04
Surface 2: 0:48 / 0:49 / 1:25 (124)
Bunker 2: 0:23 / 0:44 / 0:54
Statue: 2:18 / 2:18 / 2:18
Archives: 0:16 / 0:54 / 0:54
Streets: 1:12 / 1:55 / 1:55
Depot: 0:25 / 0:40 / 0:47
Train: 0:58 / 1:23 / 1:49
Jungle: 0:50 / 0:53 / 0:54
Control: 3:57 / 4:04 / 4:06 (Probly lower with new strats)
Caverns: 1:01 / 1:18 / 1:32
Cradle: 0:34 / 0:35 / 0:35
Aztec: 1:25 / 1:34 / 1:39
Egypt: 0:45 / 0:46 / 0:46 (hope 45 everywhere.)




1. Nick Michels
2. David Clemens
3. Rayan I. (will maybe pass Clem but it'll depends of if he can keep the heat to the top. Clemens will probably gain 1st again anyway (if Ace pass him) after Ace rerereretire)
4. Marc Rützou
5. Henning Blom
6. Bryan Bosshardt
7. Ilari Pekkala
8. Ryan White
9. Jimmy Bauer
10. P. Tip

[RWG]

Here are Goose's predictions


World Records

GREEN means I think it will be lowered
RED means a lot of people think it can go lower but I think it will stay the same


Dam: 0:52 / 1:16 / 1:55
Facility: 0:43 / 0:52 / 0:52
Runway: 0:22 / 0:22 / 0:35
Surface 1: 1:02 / 1:48 / 1:48
Bunker 1: 0:17 / 0:21 / 1:02
Silo: 1:00 / 1:08 / 1:22
Frigate: 0:23 / 1:00 / 1:03
Surface 2: 0:48 / 0:49 / 1:25
Bunker 2: 0:23 / 0:44 / 0:54
Statue: 2:19 / 2:18 / 2:18
Archives: 0:16 / 0:54 / 0:54
Streets: 1:12 / 1:55 / 1:55
Depot: 0:25 / 0:40 / 0:47
Train: 0:58 / 1:23 / 1:49
Jungle: 0:50 / 0:53 / 0:54
Control: 3:57 / 4:04 / 4:07
Caverns: 1:01 / 1:19 / 1:32
Cradle: 0:34 / 0:35 / 0:36
Aztec: 1:26 / 1:35 / 1:39
Egypt: 0:45 / 0:45 / 0:45


If Dam 52 happens, Illu will be the one to do it.

I could get Silo SA 1:08 but 1:00 will be Marc or Ace's doing.

Clemens will have an untied sweep on Bunker 2, at least temporarily.

I doubt Statue A 2:18 happens since I can't see anyone bothering to put in the time.  Someone might tie 2:18 00A though.

I can also see Ace tying and possibly lowering the Train WRs.

One of Clem/Marc/Ace will get bored one day and get 45s on Egypt.


Top 10

1. Rayan I.
2. David Clemens
3. Marc Rützou
4. Henning Blom
5. Bryan Bosshardt
6. Jimmy Bauer
7. Ryan White
8. Ilari Pekkala
9. Luke Pettit
10. Glen Stevens


The 10 spot could really go to any of Glen, Karl, Sklarz, possibly a new player from SRL.  Clemens is just getting too busy with real life stuff and I think Ace's championship is inevitable.



- There are some serious problems with formatting on the boards here so I couldn't add in the colors.  Scott is aware of it so hopefully something gets done soon.

[AZ]

Dam: 0:52 (hope I'm wrong though :P) / 1:16 / 1:55
Facility: 0:43 / 0:52 / 0:52
Runway: 0:22 / 0:22 / 0:35
Surface 1: 1:02 / 1:48 / 1:48
Bunker 1: 0:17 / 0:21 / 1:02
Silo: 1:00 / 1:08 / 1:22
Frigate: 0:23 / 1:00 / 1:04
Surface 2: 0:48 / 0:49 / 1:25
Bunker 2: 0:24 / 0:44 / 0:55
Statue: 2:19 / 2:18 / 2:18
Archives: 0:16 / 0:54 / 0:54
Streets: 1:12 / 1:55 / 1:55
Depot: 0:25 / 0:40 / 0:47
Train: 0:58 / 1:23 / 1:49
Jungle: 0:50 / 0:53 / 0:54
Control: 3:57 / 4:05 / 4:07
Caverns: 1:01 / 1:19 / 1:31 (most likely if Ace gets JAP)
Cradle: 0:34 / 0:35 / 0:35
Aztec: 1:26 / 1:35 / 1:39
Egypt: 0:45 / 0:46 / 0:46

Top 10

1. Rayan I.
2. David Clemens
3. Marc Rützou
4. Henning Blom
5. Bryan Bosshardt
6. Jimmy Bauer
7. Ilari Pekkala
8. Ryan White
9. Luke Pettit
10. Guilherme Alberto

[KingJames27]

No time for a full list atm but goona go out on a limb and say.

1. Marc Rutzou
2. Rayan I.
3. David Clemens

To be continued...

[Manocheese]

Silo DLTK 8:34

[wheatrich]

some preds

20th will have OVER 5000 points on the ranks

3 members of the current top 10 won't be there at this point next year (2 is way safe to predict so let's go with 3)

Jim Barrett will not be in the top 10 in points at any point in 2013.

editing b/c the rest of the post disappeared  (Jim = obvious lock but fun to put down and some other line but I forgot.  wtf is up with this board)

[Time was untied when set.]

I vote this the most troll and useless topic of 2012!

[Funky_Buddha]

I vote that the most useless post of the year! Followed closely by many other negative/self-absorbed/give me more credit Clem posts.

Don't know much about this game really, but hey, I'll give it a shot.

1. Rayan
2. Clem
3. Marc
4. Boss
5. Jimmy
6. Karl
7. Henning
8. Pettit
9. Snowdome
10. Glen Stevens

Dam: 0:53 / 1:16 / 1:55
Facility: 0:43 / 0:52 / 0:52
Runway: 0:22 / 0:22 / 0:35
Surface 1: 1:02 / 1:48 / 1:48
Bunker 1: 0:17 / 0:21 / 1:02
Silo: 1:00 / 1:08 / 1:22
Frigate: 0:23 / 1:00 / 1:04
Surface 2: 0:48 / 0:49 / 1:25
Bunker 2: 0:24 / 0:44 / 0:54
Statue: 2:19 / 2:18 / 2:18
Archives: 0:16 / 0:54 / 0:54
Streets: 1:12 / 1:55 / 1:55
Depot: 0:25 / 0:40 / 0:47
Train: 0:58 / 1:23 / 1:49
Jungle: 0:50 / 0:53 / 0:54
Control: 3:57 / 4:05 / 4:08
Caverns: 1:01 / 1:18 / 1:30
Cradle: 0:34 / 0:35 / 0:35
Aztec: 1:26 / 1:35 / 1:40
Egypt: 0:45 / 0:46 / 0:46

[RWG]

I vote this the most troll and useless topic of 2012!

You're the one who made the thread in 2009 (when we had the worst year for untieds.)

Also you're only just saying this because you know you won't be 1st place by the end of the year.

[Darth Vader]

Facility 00A 0:52
Silo Agent 1:00
Silo SA 1:08
Frigate SA 1:00
Train 00A 1:49
Control Agent 3:57
Control 00A 4:06
Caverns SA 1:18
Cradle 00A 0:35
Aztec SA 1:34
Aztec 00A 1:39

Probably 2-3 of these wont happen as i don't expect an active year of playing, but if 2013 will be active, all of these will happen.

[Wyst3r]

1. Clemens (Rayan temporarily gets #1 but Clem returns and retakes the spot)
2. Rayan
3. Marc
4. Henning
5. Boss
6. Illu
7. Monteith
8. Goose
9. Luke P
10. Guilherme Alberto

Dam: 0:53 / 1:16 / 1:55
Facility: 0:43 / 0:52 / 0:52
Runway: 0:22 / 0:22 / 0:35
Surface 1: 1:02 / 1:48 / 1:48
Bunker 1: 0:17 / 0:21 / 1:02
Silo: 1:00 / 1:08 / 1:21
Frigate: 0:23 / 1:00 / 1:04
Surface 2: 0:48 / 0:49 / 1:25
Bunker 2: 0:24 / 0:44 / 0:55
Statue: 2:19 / 2:18 / 2:18
Archives: 0:16 / 0:54 / 0:54
Streets: 1:12 / 1:54 / 1:54
Depot: 0:25 / 0:40 / 0:47
Train: 0:58 / 1:23 / 1:49
Jungle: 0:50 / 0:53 / 0:54
Control: 3:57 / 4:04 / 4:06
Caverns: 1:01 / 1:18 / 1:31
Cradle: 0:34 / 0:35 / 0:35
Aztec: 1:25 / 1:35 / 1:39
Egypt: 0:45 / 0:45 / 0:46

[Time was untied when set.]

Lol goose. The difference between us is that I rise in the face of competition and actually defend myself. Your lackluster return to goldeneye proves this. I've been passed by ace like twice now and got my spot back both times, using only ntsc and black magic.

Thanks Henrik for being the only personm who has faith in the champ.

[DYM]

^ It seems like you actually care about this lol.

[Time was untied when set.]

Well , if none of us cared we wouldn't be playingf this game or checking the elite. I don't care too much, but at some point its necessary to say something.

Though to be fair, when I said this topic was troll I was mostly referring to the horrible preds and alecboy trolls.

[Scrambler Fanny]

I've been passed by ace like twice now and got my spot back both times, using only ntsc and black magic.

LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLO @ black magic!

Don't care about times all that much, but here is my pred's for top 10 playaz:

DC
MR
RI
HB
BB
IP
JB (Bauer obv.  If he pr'd a little more frequently, I'd have him above IP, but he's the slowest person to climb the ranks ever, so I have him below IP this year.  He could easily pass IP next year)
RW
LP
GA

lol @ GS and KJ top 10 preds!  They both have the ability to make a push but they will be too busy being wild crazy Auzzies.  If Karl cracked the top 10 by the end of the year, it would be one of the craziest pushes of all time!  Glen has given me nothing to make me think he will actually do any serious pr'ing.  Prove me wrong, fellas.

[Jimbo]

1. Clemens
2. Rayan
3. Marc
4. Henning
5. Bryan
6. Bauer
7. Ilari
8. Goose
9. Luke
10. RYAN KOCH

I predict myself in 12th by year's end, but who cares there. Karl and Glen won't do anything.

[Scrambler Fanny]

Both you and Koch are wild cards, imo.  Infrequency, your rant about not playing, Koch being "content" with times that he shouldn't be (for his ability), etc.

Alberto is guaranteed to climb, so is Pettit.  The gap between Barrett/Koch and Cervone/Lovins/me is substantial, imo, which keeps you both at bay for the majority of the year. 

[Darth Vader]

no idea about top 10, i wont even make a pred, but top 1 is certain.

1. Marc Rützou

[Jimbo]

And by "certain", you mean a "certain impossibility" due to Clemens supreme skills.. then yeah!

[Lark]

1. Rayan
2. Clemens
3. Marc
4. Henning
5. Boss
6. Guilherme Alberto
7. Illu
8. Jimmy
9. Goose
10. Luke P

[Shadow]

Now, I don't even know where Jimmy's cousin Martin Bauer came up with the term Sylvester-Tip, since googling it provides nothing

Maybe?  :-?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silvester

[The Specialist]

Dam  52
Facility 00 -52
Bunker 2 - 23/43/53
Control - 357/405/407
Caverns - 101/118/130

1 - I.
2 - Clemens
3 - Rutzou
4 - Boss
5 - Henning
6 - Goose
7 - Illari
8 - Jimmy
9 - Guilherme
10 - Stevens

[OHMSS]

Maybe?  :-?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silvester

Exactly! Silvester = 31.12. new year celebration. Recently, to my surprise, I found that nobody knew what that Silvester is I was talking about in twitch chat.

Is Martin Bauer german or of german descent?

[Soft-Hedwig]

Shawn Johnson out of top 10 needs to happen.

[RWG]

AFAIK Martin Bauer was actually Germanic

[Smit]

1. Clemens
2. Rayan
3. Marc
4. Henning
5. Boss
6. Illu
7. Jobst
8. Goose
9. Luke P
10. Guilherme Alberto

Dam: 0:53 / 1:16 / 1:54
Facility: 0:43 / 0:52 / 0:52
Runway: 0:22 / 0:22 / 0:35
Surface 1: 1:02 / 1:47 / 1:48
Bunker 1: 0:17 / 0:20 / 1:00
Silo: 1:00 / 1:08 / 1:21
Frigate: 0:23 / 0:59 / 1:04
Surface 2: 0:48 / 0:49 / 1:23
Bunker 2: 0:24 / 0:44 / 0:54
Statue: 2:19 / 2:18 / 2:18
Archives: 0:16 / 0:54 / 0:54
Streets: 1:12 / 1:54 / 1:54
Depot: 0:25 / 0:40 / 0:47
Train: 0:58 / 1:23 / 1:49
Jungle: 0:50 / 0:53 / 0:54
Control: 3:57 / 4:04 / 4:06
Caverns: 1:01 / 1:18 / 1:31
Cradle: 0:34 / 0:35 / 0:35
Aztec: 1:25 / 1:33 / 1:39
Egypt: 0:45 / 0:45 / 0:46

[50]

Not an official "The Sylvester-Tip" but I guess it's kind of. Add it. 2010 http://elite.speedrunwiki.com/forum/index.php?topic=15089.msg335355#msg335355

[flukey lukey]

I'm about to ruin all of these preds ^_^

[50]

<3

[Jimbo]

Bumping for fun, consider making a new topic!

[DYM]

Results

Times:

1. Goose: 50 correct times
2. AZ: 47 correct times
3. FB: 45 correct times
4. Henrik: 44 correct times
5. 50 Cent: 40 correct times
6. Eise: 38 correct times
7. Koch: 37 correct times

Untieds (out of 10):

1. Goose: 7 correct untieds
2. Eise: 6 correct untieds
3. Henrik: 5 correct untieds
4. Koch: 5 correct untieds
5. 50 Cent: 4 correct untieds
6. AZ: 4 correct untieds
7. The Specalist: 3 correct untieds
8. FB: 2 correct untieds
9. Marc: 2 correct untieds

Fun facts:

- There were 10 preds for top 10. 4 of those (Goose, AZ, FB, Lark, The Specialist) predicted Ace would pass Clemens.
- Pretty much everyone predicted Facility 00A 0:52.
- Pretty much everyone predicted Control 3:57 and Silo 1:01. I'm surprised those didn't happen too.
- Goose correctly predicted State 00A 2:18 being tied (it was untied for 5+ years) and Egypt 0:45s happening by Ace/Clemens/Marc.