MARCH MADNESS 2013 Edition [Congrats to Louisville and Max!]

[Ngamer]

Holy smokes it's the yearly topic where wheat blasts the selection committee and then everyone heads to ESPN!

Elite's Group
http://games.espn.go.com/tournament-challenge-bracket/en/frontpage
Click Join Group, search for The Final Four Elite
our password is "elite"

Sometimes nothing will show up when you try to search for groups... if that happens, try clicking directly into the group with this link

http://games.espn.go.com/tournament-challenge-bracket/en/group?groupID=42871
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Also we're bring back another fun challenge for the more "hardcore" of NCAA tourney fans, the...

March Madness Team Draft

We'll be drafting this Wednesday night in the chatroom!  Here's the sheet with all the info:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AvhZ2lt476FmdDZYbkFmdkx3NUNPMnkyd2lkQmdMVEE&usp=sharing                                                            

Basically 10 of us pick the 64 teams, each with $100 to spend in an auction.  You can pick as many teams as you can afford (better teams will of course be more expensive), and whoever drafts the group of teams that perform the best wins.

Last year's managers have first rights to the slots, but post here if you're interested and will be available Wed night and we'll find a spot for you!

IN
Ngamer
Thingy
QB
wheat
Come
Third
Gabby
Alec
drag

OUT
Shadow
Youse

Will keep this list updated.

Start time will be 9:30 Eastern Wednesday night.
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Links to all previous years and winners
- coming soon

2012 - http://elite.speedrunwiki.com/forum/index.php?topic=16956
 Champ: Kentucky, Elite Champ: Goose
2011 - http://elite.speedrunwiki.com/forum/index.php?topic=15723
 Champ: UConn, Elite Champ: Cyber
2010 -  http://elite.speedrunwiki.com/forum/index.php?topic=15214.0
  Champ: Duke, Elite Champ: sdkess
2009 - http://elite.speedrunwiki.com/forum/index.php?topic=14454
  Champ: UNC, Elite Champ: wheat
2008 - http://elite.speedrunwiki.com/forum/index.php?topic=13536
  Champ: Kansas, Elite Champ: Goose
2007 - http://elite.speedrunwiki.com/forum/index.php?topic=1524
  Champ: Florida, Elite Champ: mostfrantic
2006 - Eaten maybe
  Champ: Florida, Elite Champ: Woll
2005 - Eaten maybe
  Champ: North Carolina, Elite Champ: ???
2004 - Eaten maybe
  Champ: UConn, Elite Champ: ???
2003 - http://elite.speedrunwiki.com/forum/index.php?topic=1777
  Champ: Syracuse, Elite Champ: Tisko
2002 - http://elite.speedrunwiki.com/forum/index.php?topic=10816
  Champ: Maryland, Elite Champ: mikers
2001 - http://elite.speedrunwiki.com/forum/index.php?topic=9174
  Champ: Champ: Duke, Elite Champ: Max Jansen

[dragondragon18]

You could add me in as an alternate, if you can push it back to 10:00 eastern.

[..]

in for draft

[Thiradell]

Put me in the draft.

[wheatrich]

Playins should be top notch, all games are essentially coin flips.

However, I'll talk about the two games on each day projected to be the closest to in the first round (I'm not calling it second go f yourselves ncaa).  (Spoiler alert this post is wiff approved)  won't go into specific players but some stats and why you should probably watch the game.

#8 Colorado State vs #9 Missouri  Thu 9:20 (it won't start this early) EST
This is the best of the group for me and the one I'm looking forward to the most out of all the first round games so saving the best on thursday for the night tip off.  This game features two teams that were slightly underseeded.  Colorado State features the best rebounding team in the nation (unfortunately for them, they also have a lot of practice at it) and are a senior laden club (the kind that often annoyingly to a high seed win 2 games in the tournament) vs a Missouri team who got pretty darn unlucky on the road this season.    This is projected to be the best game by the computers but I didn't need that to know it when I saw the brackets.  If you get only one game to watch on Thursday, I recommend this one.  Both teams are capable of beating L'ville in the next round.

The second thursday matchup to watch is
#6 Butler vs #11 Bucknell  12:40 EST

for the ones who can only watch during the day, this is a very good consolation prize.  This is a very close matchup involving previous cinderellas.  Butler having the more recent and farther success with the GOAT coach.  Bucknell went 28-5 and has the #14 ranked defense so watch out for a low scoring close game here.

Honorable Mention
Arizona vs Belmont 7:20 PM

because who doesn't love a 6 seed from a power conference vs an 11 mid major?  The new 5/12 game.

Highest seed with a decent chance to go down early #3 Marquette

Friday's games don't feature as interesting games to me, but they're projected to still be as close and fun as ever

#7 Notre Dame vs #10 Iowa State  9:45 PM EST
man these TV execs sure know how to schedule games for us night owls.  Not so much if you go to bed early but w/e.  Do people really want to see all these 1 seeds beat down 16's (the typical primetime games)?   Iowa State is the #4 scoring team in the nation, so this will be an up and down scoring affair.  Iowa State lost to Kansas 3 times, twice in OT (one was because of referee riggage though, they won the one game).    I really like the way the Iowa State program is run, they aren't silly enough to try to recruit people to corn land, so they rely on getting the best transfers (lots of kids get overlooked, HS recruiting isn't an exact science like the sports drafts aren't) because none of the big time programs bother to go after them generally.  Notre Dame is the last team to beat Louisville (the tournament's #1 overall seed) in 5 OT's.  Yes, Five.  Five is nothing for big east games though.  ND features double double man and a good guard tandem and will be an annoying out for whoever they end up playing in this tournament.  This is the game I recommend for Friday if you only can see one.

#7 Illinois vs #10 Colorado 4:40 PM EST
Illinois is this year's who in the hell is going to show up team.  They beat Indiana at home and took down Gonzaga on the road with other quality wins like Butler and Ohio State and won the Maui tournament but when the shots aren't falling they end up losing to god awful northwestern and should've lost to even worse Gardner Webb.  They still live and die by the 3 point shot.  Colorado has an issue with turnovers being ranked 257th in that category while Illinois has inconsistent shooting.  Colorado doesn't have the quality wins b/c  they didn't bother trying to play basketball when they played Kansas.

Honorable Mention
Villanova vs North Carolina  7:20 EST
a big time 8 vs 9 matchup

Highest seed with a reasonable chance to go down early
ok, UCLA is going to be a trendy 6 seed to die in a fire but I'll go with a team that a lot of people have going really deep in this tournament.
#5 Wisconsin

yeah, duke is playing on friday but they got the weakest 15.  They'll get out of there.

edit--alright I'll mention the committee.  Great job selecting teams, pretty terrible job of seeding.

[wishiwasfamous]

Thanks wheat

[NathanStinson]

Seeing Come do this in chat made me interested in doing it also... and that is a coin flip bracket!

Basic rules:
You flip a coin to decide who wins each match. It's as simple as that. You may flip any coin that has two distinct sides and is not unfairly weighted. Heads = top team in the matchup (not necessarily highest ranked, just the top team on the bracket) wins. Tails = low team in the matchup wins.

As a variation, I will allow you to automatically pass your #1 seeds past the first round if you want to, since none of them have ever lost. However, If you want to truly keep in the spirit of the contest, leave it all to chance:-)


For the final score tie breaker, use http://www.random.org/ and enter a min of 1 and a max of 100.

Fill out your bracket and join in the group!



Get in the action now:
http://games.espn.go.com/tournament-challenge-bracket/en/group?groupID=202673&ex_cid=tcmen-invite-email

On mobile:
http://games.espn.go.com/tournament-challenge-bracket/en/m/group?groupID=202673&ex_cid=tcmen-invite-email

Group: Flip of a Coin Group


Some interesting stats from my bracket:
I used a 2011 US penny.
I did NOT auto pass #1 seeds through.

My first round lost #1 Gonzaga (who I think is the most likely #1 to lose, ironically enough, even though it won't happen) and #2 Duke and #2 Miami. Ouch.

My Sweet 16:
Midwest
Col St v Okla St.
Mich St v Cincy

West
Pitt v KSU
New Mexico v Notre Dame

South
UNC v Akron
Minnesota v Georgetown

East
Indiana v UNLV
Marquette v Pacific

I feel pretty good about my West and East regions at this point. The others have gone to hell.


My Elite 8:
Okla St v Mich St, Pitt v Notre Dame, UNC v Minnesota, Indiana v Marquette

That's almost disappointing. All of my craziest winners are out by now and I still have a very good chance at a winner with Indiana...


Final Four:
Mich St v Notre Dame, Minnesota v Indiana

Final Results!
Notre Dame v Minnesota in the finals, and your winner for 2013 is.... Notre Dame ugh.
My randomly generated final score was.... 92 to 51!


Well that was fun! I hope to see some more entries from some of you!

[Ngamer]

Excellent writeup wheat, except for a certain "likely to loss early" prediction which is frankly the dumbest thing I've read all week!

In other news, Shadow has been forced to drop out of the Wed night Auction due to a busy Finals week, so one spot has opened up.  Post here or drop by the Chatroom and it could you yours!

[sdkess]

Dang. My Davidson upset pick went to the wire and then lost. Ouch.

* remembers UNCA last year against Syracuse and shakes fist *

[Ngamer]

The tourney is up and running and all brackets are now locked down!  We had a great turnout for our Elite pool with 28 players signing up

http://games.espn.go.com/tournament-challenge-bracket/en/group?groupID=42871

Most popular championship picks are #1 Indiana and #1 Kansas, but with only 5 Eliters backing each.  This is probably the most wide-open field we've ever seen, as we've picked 10 different teams to win it all!


We also completed the Team Auction Draft last night, here's the sheet to track all the action

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AvhZ2lt476FmdDZYbkFmdkx3NUNPMnkyd2lkQmdMVEE&usp=sharing


Additionally we did a little Ng/Come/wheat/QB mini-draft on Tuesday night where each of us gets one of the four team at every seed.  Those lineups are here, Come will be updating this sheet after each round.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AokSHopXyY5rdFptanRvODl3TUg4ZGJGY2xJMThPb3c&usp=sharing

[RWG]

Who is "netball queen" and why do they think the final is going to be a score of 500-450?

[TheFlash]

Women don't always catch on to these things when it's their first attempt. No big deal!

[RWG]

It's your gf?

[wheatrich]

tomorrow's times and games in eastern  US and CBS unless noted
12:15  VCU vs Michigan
Game of the day--tho sometimes those don't go so well...  VCU's strength is pressuring guards, Michigan has... NBA guards.
2:45  Memphis vs Michigan State
MSU has struggled facing athletic guards... which Memphis has.
5:15
Colorado State vs Louisville.   This game is a round too soon, CSU is definitely better than their seed.   
6:10
Harvard vs Arizona  (TNT)
yawn, Zona wins, next
7:10
Oregon vs St.Louis  (TBS)
let's see if Oregon can wreck the St.Louis bracket
7:45
Butler vs Marquette
Marq has a better team but are you really going to go against the GOAT coach?
8:40
Wichita State vs Gonzaga  (TNT)
Gonzaga's road is pretty weak to the elite 8, let's see if they get shocked!
9:40
California vs Syracuse (TBS)
all but another home game for Cal but I don't like their chances here.

lol everyone who had Gtown.

Night blows but Marq Butler should be a low scoring drives wheat nuts kind of game.  Mid day to afternoon has only one game at a time, but they're at least they are all good ones.

[Ngamer]

We're down to the Final Four!  Your very unexpected matchups are

1. Louisville vs 9. Wichita St

4. Michigan vs 4. Syracuse

Despite being the overall top seed and a heavy favorite for expert's picks, amazingly only 3 out of 28 Eliters went with a Louisville Championship, meaning our winner this year will likely by my cousin, the infamous Max Jansen.  He picked the correct winner last year as well, but could only manage 2nd place because Goose still edged him out.  The only other bracket still alive belongs to Gabby, who went with the longshot Michigan Wolverines to win it all and will be our Champ if they come through for him.

Feels like this will be the lowest-scoring overall Elite pool we've ever seen, but that's probably more or less true worldwide.  Let's take a look at the Final Four prediction numbers across all 8 million brackets on ESPN.

1Louisville-39.7%
4Michigan-4.9%
4Syracuse-3.5%
9Wichita State-0.1%

Wichita was considered the 46th most likely team to make the Final Four- to give you an idea they were only picked by a couple thousand more brackets than 14th seed Harvard!  That's not tooooo crazy though, there's often one Cinderella that surprises everyone with a deep run to the Final Four, and Louisville was easily the overall #1 most likely to be here.  What really hurt us was all the 1, 2, and 3 seeds flopping on the right side of the bracket... every team from 2 down to 9 got knocked out early, allowing #10 and #11 overall Michigan and Syracuse to sneak through and destroy 95% of brackets in the process.

[Lark]

Well well well. It appears Sniper Patrol placed 2nd this year. gg all.

[MostFrantic]

Congrats to mxjnsn for pulling out the win. Thanks to Jon for setting this up once again. I'll look forward to the dance again next year.

[Ngamer]

Whoaaaaaa now, was that ever a heck of a final game!  I was happy to hear that overall this was the most-watched March Madness since 1994.  Between those incredible Michigan/Louisville and Michigan/Kansas games and Wichita's wild run and Florida Globetrotter Coast, it's easy to see why!  In any case, here are the final standings for this year



Congrats to my cousin Max who came from behind to earn the 2013 Championship!  He had a great bracket last year as well and would be our first ever repeat winner if Goose hadn't just edged him out.  The craaaaazy part is that if Louisville wouldn't have been able to complete a 12 point comeback against Wichita St our winner would have been Max's wife... who wouldn't have picked the correct Champ OR either of the two teams in the Final and only two teams out of the Final Four!  Which surely would have been the new record for worst bracket to win our Elite pool.  Even as is our best bracket didn't crack the 97th percentile and our overall performance has to be our worst ever... ah well, we'll do better next year!

Sports fans, be sure to stay tuned for our NHL and NBA playoff prediction topics, coming soon.

[wheatrich]

and would be our first ever repeat winner

you are a good needler