Has anyone ever made a mod on an everydrive so that the 5 hostages always run straight to the closest despawn spots and played it out so they dont get stuck to see whats the fastest they can escape? Is 104 maxed or is it in theory able to go lower? Can you like tas a moded file so you release them as fast as possible and they escape as early as possible?
I think doing this and playing the level manually, counting number of runs between completions, then assuming every run where they don't choose the best despawns would fail, and simply dividing the probability by 6 or 7 or whatever the number of spawn points are per hostage would be the most efficient human-reliable way to test this. It would at least give a rough idea of the probability, and it would be quick to see who's correct. If it still takes 10+ runs to get a completion, the figure would be closer to Ace's, but if it completes almost every time, it'd be closer to Wyst3r's.
Because of death speed randomness and the other chaos leading to hostages' deaths, I would assume it's closer to Ace's figure.