Untied World Records that can ONLY be tied by 1 person? Or no one?

[RWG]

A consideration when talking about untieds that may remain untied for a very long time, is who could plausibly tie said untied?  An example of this in recent history is Sammy Rodgers' tie of Jimmy Bauer's Statue Agent 2:18.  If not for Sammy Rodgers, Jimmy's 2:18 would likely still be untied, quickly heading towards becoming one of the oldest untied WRs in GE history.  So this is to say that, if Sammy Rodgers had

So which of the game's current untieds are only tieable by one other?  And if that one other doesn't try to become the untied slayer, might said untied last forever?

Dam Agent 0:52 - Far too early to tell.  Thinking about Dam 52 in its current state reminds me of the conversation we used to have around Depot 25.  Henrik TASed a 25.97, where even one alteration would gave 26.  Dam 52 seems the same way now.  You need literally a perfect run.  Every frame has to be perfect.  I don't think it's worthwhile to discuss this record in this context yet, as right now, no one else can get it.

Runway 00 Agent 0:31 - Obviously Randy can tie it, but I don't think 31 is contingent on Randy alone.  I could plausibly get 31 old strat, and there are plenty of r-leaners like Phil or Mattei who might eventually be arsed to learn it.  More than one person can tie 31.

Surface 1 Secret Agent 1:47 - This would have been a really good example of an "untied WR that only 1 person can tie."  If not for Calle, 1:47 could go years untied.  Marc believes he could get 1:47 with 1.2, and I don't doubt it.  But who knows how many years it would have taken Marc to get there.  It's a time that could have gone unchallenged forever if not for one very specific person (Calle W.)

Silo Secret Agent 1:07 - Goose, Ace, Jono, can all get this.  Clearly an UWR not relying on only one person to tie it.

Frigate Secret Agent 0:58 - Pettit's time is even more suspicious than previously thought, when you realize that other than this untied, he hasn't PRed at all since 2014.  This very well might be untieable but it also very well might be fake.  It's a complete outlier not really worth discussing in this context.

Surface 2 Secret Agent 0:47 - Grav, Randy, likely numerous others can get this.  That doesn't mean it'll be tied soon though.

Surface 2 00 Agent 1:24 - I have to think Clemens, Marc, Ace, Luke and a number of other grinders could threaten this.  Again this might stay untied for a long time because that's the trend on Surface 2 00 Agent, but it's not completely dependent on one person.

Bunker 2 00 Agent 0:54 - Alex, Marc, Luke... I'm sure there is actually a very long list of players who can tie this... the now current LSU.  Someone get to it!

Streets 00 Agent 1:54 - I genuinely may be the only person who can tie this right now.  I tried a good deal back in February... perhaps another grind is in order.  If it threatens LSU territory I will likely have no choice.  There is no one else who has shown potential to get 1:54 other than Ogran and I.

Depot Secret Agent 0:39 - I'm not sure there is anyone capable of tying this atm. I know Sammy and others have tried a good deal, but I've not seen anything really close.  This could remain untied forever.

Train Agent 0:57 - Another record that no one is capable of tying.  If Henrik gets too close, Marc will just grind for 56 and likely get it.  Train Agent is forever unable to be tied.

Control Secret Agent 4:03 - This is the record that began this discussion in Discord.  Marc is certainly capable.  Luke might be capable if he played for a very long time, but he could spend 50-100 hours and not get it.  Marc seems to be the only one that for sure is able to tie 4:03, but even he might come up short.

Control 00 Agent 4:04 - Same as Secret Agent.  Ace's Control records may be LSU contenders.

Caverns 00 Agent 1:30 - A pretty underrated time, or certainly a sleeper counting up quickly on total days untied.  But there is no reason to think the crew that has 1:31 can't also get 1:30 with a little grind + Spec's newer innovations.

Aztec 00 Agent 1:35 - One of the best speedruns of 2017, period.  But there's no reason to assume that Eise couldn't disrespectfully match it if he put in the hours.  Wodahs, Ace, and some others also stand a good chance.

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So what do you all think?  Which Untied WRs do you think come down to only one other person being able to tie them?  Which untieds might remain that way forever, or for a very long time?

[JDBlack21]

Certainly an interesting thing to think about. I haven't been around this community for long, so I don't know as well the magnitude in which certain untieds are achieved compared to others, as well as which specific players are even capable of tying the records. But what I can say through my limited exposure and experience with other speedrun communities is that when a certain time or times in this case seem to be unbeatable or unmatchable, it almost always never ends up being that way. Of course, it may take several years before a lot of these can be beaten. Personally, I think some of the hardest times to tie will be train 57, depot 39, and control 403 and 404.

[Deuceler]

Is Train only untouchable due to the PAL element? Would more American players grind for it if it was more accessible?

[RWG]

Potentially.  The entire history of Train would be different if Clemens had PAL.  Maybe he would have untied with 59 or 58, Marc never would have had 58 as an UWR, and 57 would be more within reach.  Alex is another candidate who would have benefited from having PAL for his whole career.

[DYM]

I'm a historian and expert analyst, and this is one out of the many likely scenarios if Clemens had PAL and the ability to play it from the get-go:

- Ace dominates the level in February 2007. At this point, Clemens doesn't really care about Train. He's in the middle of playing Bunker 1, aiming for the 300 points (0:17/0:23/1:07) and later he would set his sights on Surface 2.

- By late 2007, Clemens has played almost every level. Because Train is one of the most skill-intensive and addictive levels, he spends more time playing it than the average level. He gets 1:00 (untied), shortly after grinding the level and tying 1:01, also adding "lol i knew 101 was overrated" (referring to the number of congratulatory messages and shock the entire Elite had when I achieved it). Note that he was sending tapes at this time, so his videos would be made a month or two after.

- Ace then ties 1:00 a day later and a race to 0:59 begins. It is more than likely Clemens would have untied 0:59 at this point, with a minute chance of him getting 0:58.

- Clemens and Ace then race to lower the SA and 00A records. They both eventually lower their personal bests to 1:25 and 1:51, with a possibility of 1:24 happening. If Clemens had achieved the 1:24 he would have given 1:50 (and therefore an untied sweep) a shot. However, it's difficult to say if he would have actually achieved the untied sweep, since Ace could have tied 1:24 before he could have gotten the 1:50. Train then goes into inactivity.

- It's slightly hard to predict how a 0:58 would have happened, but Clemens would have likely given it a shot in 2009 during my inactivity. If he hadn't yet achieved it (probable scenario), he probably would have when Marc became a threat to the level in late 2010, engendering another rivalry. Marc would later go on to tie 1:24 and 1:50.

The history of the level would have changed tremendously. Clemens would likely have the most number of days of Agent untied, an untied sweep much earlier on (something he was occasionally jeered at for not having until he managed to get one on Aztec in late 2015), 20/20 Agent records (which no player to this date has achieved), etc.

[wheatrich]

Current longest standing untied is only 2015 but sure let's talk about some lasting forever.

Depends like it always does, on players capable of getting one motivation + time for grinding + a pinch of fortunate RNG.

Continuing to get people from wherever into it playing helps with part A.

[LQwerty]

This could remain untied forever.