Author Topic: Let's discuss the 2018 Summer Movies [Jurassic hits $1 bil, Incredibles next]  (Read 1221 times)

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Here's a thread where we can discuss the new Summer Movie Season.  Incidentally, I've written up a small preview of all the action along with all the latest trailers if you're interested.  And if you want, you can try to guess the season's Top Five performers.  This is the earliest this topic has ever gone up because Disney has gone crazy and decided the first weekend of May isn't soon enough to start the Summer anymore, so let's dive right in!


2018 Summer Movies

* as always everything behind a $ below is in millions of dollars and is based on the domestic gross, not the combined worldwide number

April 27th
Avengers: Infinity War


Ten years later... it all comes down to this.  After spending the last decade hunting down stones across the galaxy Thanos finally arrives on Earth, and all factions of the Marvel universe (the Avengers, the Guardians, Strange's sorcerers, the armies of Wakanda, Spiderman's quiz team) must unite to stop him.

Well, what more is there to say about this franchise?  This is the 19th film in the shared universe and audiences certainly don't seem to be growing fatigued, considering Movie #18 just blew past Titanic to become the third biggest hit in the history of US cinema.  The only question is if it can threaten The Force Awakens for biggest opening weekend, and how many Star Wars films it'll be able to knock off while climbing the lifetime charts all Summer long.  All I can say for sure is that I'll be a dead ringer for our grizzled new Captain America when I hit the theater in full costume on opening night.

Related: The Avengers $623, Avengers: Age of Ultron $459, Captain America: Civil War $408

Ng Sez: $646


Rival studios knew Disney was going to land an extinction-level crater on their box office dreams in early May, so no one wanted to put out a new movie this week.  That means instead of another standard blockbuster we get a heartfelt Summer indie with Oscar hopes, which is fun in itself!  Won't make any money but hey- nice change of pace.

Writer Diablo Cody (of Juno fame) reunites with Charlize Theron to tell the story of an exhausted mother of three whose life is turned around by the night nanny her husband hires named Tully (played by Mackenzie Davis, aka the girl you fell in love with in Black Mirror's San Junipero).  Seems like a pretty typical slice-of-life indie drama/comedy, but as someone who loved Juno and Young Adult I still think it could be worth seeing.  If the reviews are positive I'll be sure to give this a chance.

Related: Juno $143, Young Adult $16, Atomic Blonde $52

Ng Sez: $29

May 11th
Life of the Party


After being stunned by a divorce after 20 years of marriage, Melissa McCarthy decides the only way to get her life back on track is to return to college to complete her degree.  And for some reason she has to join her daughter's sorority to do it.  Can you just imagine?!

Alright so yes, Old School did this 15 years ago (continuing the trend of gender swapped reboots- more on that later) and this new version of the same idea doesn't look especially original or gut-busting.  But this movie's not for us, and honestly McCarthy is perhaps the most reliably bankable star in Hollywood right now.  I won't be lining up to see this one but everything she stars in finds a big audience with older female viewers and I doubt this will be an exception.

Related: The Heat $160, Spy $111, Ghostbusters $128

Ng Sez: $101


Now you can see why no male-centric movies wanted to release in May, would have been put in quite the Marvel pinch!  Anyways so yeah, deadly time-traveling super solider Cable shows up and Deadpool has to form his own "super duper team" to answer the threat, rest assured many hijinks result.

FOX took a huge risk on Deadpool two years ago; everyone said super hero movies had to be serious, PG-13 (because they couldn't survive without teen boys filling the seats), and that only the MCU was strong enough to center them around lesser-known characters.  Then DP1 went out and became the highest grossing R rated film of all time, the first successful superhero/comedy mashup, and even outgrossed every other mutant slash X-Men movie, including Wolverine's stand alone hits!  Deadpool's humor doesn't always land for me but I love what he's done to lighten up the comic book genre so I'll be there opening weekend to support the dude.

Related: Deadpool $363, Logan $226, Green Lantern $117

Ng Sez: $319

May 25th
Solo: A Star Wars Story


Everyone's favorite smuggler gets his first starring role; we take a deep dive into the past to see how a young Han Solo met his friends Chewie and Lando and got his hands on the Millennium Falcon.

The main trilogy will conclude next Christmas, until then we're back to the "off brand" Star Wars anthology series.  Positives:  Rogue One was way better than I expected, Donald Glover is the perfect choice for a young Lando, and having Woody Harrelson and Emilia Clarke involved is certainly promising (as is Ron Howard in the director's seat).  Negatives:  I can't get over how un-Harrison Ford this guy is!  I'll still check out Solo on opening weekend and hope the rest of the film is good enough to make up for Han's casting, but in the meantime I'm going to stay very conservative with my box office pred.

Related: Rogue One $532, The Last Jedi $620, The Force Awakens $937

Ng Sez: $265


Here's another week the rival studios avoided like the plague, and between Star Wars and the second weekend/tail end of two surefire comic book hits you can't blame them.  Left to pick up the pieces is... Johnny Knoxville?!  He stars in an '80s teen flick throwback about the world's most dangerous theme park where (of course) he and his friend Chris Pontius perform all the stunts.

Jackass may have debuted almost 20 years ago, but idiots injuring themselves in ridiculous ways is timeless.  If anyone had doubts on that matter they should have been assuaged by the shockingly successful Bad Grandpa a few years back.  I can't see this one becoming the same kind of breakout hit, and I won't be rushing to the theater to get tickets myself, but I do dig the goofy Wet Hot American Summer-style vibe so I'll probably catch it when it comes to Netflix.

Related: Bad Grandpa $102, Jackass 3D $117, Jackass: The Movie $64

Ng Sez: $63


"Anything men can do, we can do better."  The theme of female remakes/reboots keeps right on rolling as George Clooney's sister Sandra Bullock assembles her own crack team of super-thiefs to pull off the heist of the century:  stealing a $150 million diamond off the neck of the world's most famous actress (Anne Hathaway) at the Met Gala.  Her crew?  Cate Blanchett, Sarah Paulson, Mindy Kaling, Rihanna, Awkwafina, Helena Bonham Carter, and Dakota Fanning.

For all the hate 2016's Ghostbusters received online it still went on to make a very respectable chunk of change (about $230 million worldwide), which wasn't enough to put it into the positives only because it was way too expensive to make (costing nearly $150 million).  Ocean's 8 isn't going to have that problem and I think between that and the very smartly counter-programmed release date, women are going to turn out to this one in droves and turn it into a big time hit.  Which is wonderful since I've always been a sucker for heist flicks and the trailer looks great- count me in, ladies!

Related: Ocean's 11 $183, Ocean's 12 $125, Ocean's 13 $117

Ng Sez: $138


Having to wait 14 years for this is undoubtedly the most absurd scheduling decision in Disney history, especially considering they talked Pixar into making two Cars movies in the meantime despite no one asking for them... but let's put all that behind us because it's finally here!  Mr. Incredible struggles with becoming a stay-at-home Dad when Elastigirl is promoted to the status of world's #1 super hero.  (Will Samuel L. Jackson agree to be his Tully?)

The whole cast is back including legendary writer/director Brad Bird, and I couldn't be more excited!  The addition of Breaking Bad alums Bob Odenkirk and Jonathan Banks is a nice touch as well.  Basically I would be SHOCKED if this isn't the best movie of the Summer, and I'd be equally surprised if it didn't have the blockbuster results to back that up.

Related: The Incredibles $261, Finding Dory $486, Monsters University $268

Ng Sez: $439

June 22nd
Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom


A volcano or something is set to blow up Dinosaur Island, and only Chris Pratt and Bryce Dallas Howard can save these noble (genetically modified, shouldn't exist in the first place, ate hundreds of people) creatures!

2015's Jurassic reboot was... perfectly fine.  No one's a bigger Chris Pratt fan than myself and he was the right choice for the role, it had some incredible action sequences and all the dinos looked pretty good.  All that being said, I didn't see a need to return to that world so soon.  Universal Pictures saw it another way, and when you consider World's eye-popping numbers it's hard to blame them:  it finished its run as the 3rd biggest movie in history, both domestically and internationally (behind only Titanic and Avatar).  In summary, I'll be in the theater opening weekend, crossing my fingers that they came up with a more compelling script than the trailer would lead us to believe.

Related: Jurassic World $652, Jurassic Park $402, The Lost World $229

Ng Sez: $393

June 29th
Sicario: Day of the Soldado


What an odd choice to place smack-dab in the middle of Blockbuster Season:  a sequel to a small Oscar-nominated 2015 film that was critically acclaimed but almost no one saw, and which lost its leading actor (Emily Blunt).  Kind of makes sense though because, based on the trailer, it looks like Soldado is shedding its small scale indie roots and going in a Micheal Bay-lite action direction with Benicio del Toro starting an ill-advised war with the Mexican government.

I'm sure it'll do okay for itself and improve on Sicaro's modest success, can't see it turning into a break out smash hit...  But enough about that nonsense, let's get to the real story here:  what a Summer for Josh Brolin!  He gets to chew scenery and steal scenes as the ultra intimidating super villain in TWO of what will be the most successful comic book movies ever only two weeks apart, then a mere month later here he is lighting up the screen with another juicy villainous role.  He'll never have to worry about money again, and good for him; now he just needs an Oscar statue to go along with his Scrooge McDuck vault.

Related: Sicario $47, The Wolfman $61, Traffic $124

Ng Sez: $73

July 6th
Ant-Man and the Wasp


Ant-Man makes his glorious return to the silver screen, this time alongside his new sidekick Evangeline Lilly.  (Well, not new, she was in the last movie already, but now she gets to wear a bumblebee suit and shrink and talk to bugs or whatever.)

Okay so Ant-Man is the lowest of the low tier when it comes to super heroes, but Paul Rudd is great in the role and somehow even joke characters can turn Disney shareholders into mega millionaires thanks to the far reaching appeal of the MCU. I'm thinking audiences are going to leave Infinity War newly reenergized about this universe and the high tide will raise all ships, lifting even the least consequential of their 20 shared-world movies to new heights.  And I'll be right there to get in on the fun on opening week!

Related: Ant-Man $180, Doctor Strange $233, Thor: Ragnarok $315

Ng Sez: $223


Did I call Melissa McCarthy Hollywood's most bankable star above?  Someone musta forgot about THE ROCK.  His track record of success is actually even more unbelievable considering he makes twice as many movies as Melissa and somehow every second one explodes as a mega-hit, like Jumani did earlier this year.  In any case Skyscraper is, well... 99% just the original Die Hard, with Rock in the Bruce Willis role.

Will that be enough to make it a show-stopping blockbuster?  Probably.  Will it be enough to get me to the theater on opening weekend?  HECK yes!  Now if you'll excuse me I have to cut this review short and see Rampage instead.

Related: Jumani $404, Central Intelligence $127, San Andreas $155

Ng Sez: $129

July 20th
Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again


Did you realize the original Mamma Mia movie came out ten years ago?  I'd have said four or five!  Not that I think about it often (other than when the admittedly catchy songs get stuck in my head).  Regardless, Here We Go Again is the story of Amanda Seyfried getting knocked up a notch by a man who leaves her, so she needs to get cheered up by time traveling to the '70s to watch her Mom Meryl Streep (errr, Lily James) likewise get knocked up by a young Pierce Brosnan (or possibly two other men, who knows).  Inspirational stuff!

I'd say 10 years is way too long between entries but female moviegoers are going to be starved for entertainment this Summer, as we've covered a few times already, and musicals are some of the safest bets at the box office these days.  I'm betting this still puts up a very respectable number, though it probably doesn't match the original's success.

Related: Mamma Mia $144, Les Miserables $149, The Greatest Showman $174

Ng Sez: $122

July 27th
Mission: Impossible - Fallout


Tom Cruise puts on his running shoes for the sixth time... but this time, it's personal.  Oh, they've all been personal?  Okay, this time, it's impersonal.

I don't know how much there is to say about Fallout other than that I absolutely LOVE this trailer  (especially when the remixed theme song kicks in) and that the last two entries in this series have been downright delightful and I'd happily watch another six.  The rest of the world seems to be in agreement based on the box office tallies, so here's to predicting more of the same aka another 200+ showing for this unkillable franchise!

Related: Rogue Nation $195, Ghost Protocol $209, MI3 $134

Ng Sez: $203

August 3rd
Christopher Robin


When Ewan McGregor's family leaves him at home in the midst of a serious midlife crisis he's visited by his closest childhood friend... a talking stuffed animal named Winnie the Pooh.  Fever dream, severe mental trauma, an unhinged psychotic break?   Oh, bother!

I joke, but Disney's animated-films-turned-live-action-for-no-good-reason genre has been one of their best decisions ever from a purely business standpoint.  Everyone saw Beauty & The Beast go nuts a year ago but even their second tier titles like Cinderella and Maleficent have made serious bank.  And of course we'd be fools to disregard Seth MacFarlane's trailblazing role in this area- clearly talking teddy bears are as sure a sign of an upcoming box office bonanza as insanity!

Related: Winnie the Pooh (2011) $27, Cinderella (2015) $201, Ted $219

Ng Sez: $116


Remember when you were 10 and you discovered that 3 million years ago there was a great white shark the size of a schoolbus swimming around eating literally everything in the ocean, and its name was Megaladon, and it was the best day of your childhood?  What if I told you that there was secretly one 75 foot Meg still hiding at the bottom of the ocean, and now its eating every surfer on the West Coast, and only Jason Statham can stop it?  If you answered "that would be the best day of my adult life," boy do I have the movie for you.

Sharks have never really gone out of style post-Jaws, but they're especially hot right now in the wake of The Shallows and 47 Meters Down the last couple years.  Well, okay so neither of those movies made much money, but Meg has a much larger budget and the advantage of being the last action flick of the Summer- maybe it can turn that into a respectable showing?  Personally I think I'll wait for Netflix on this one but it could still be fun with a large enough popcorn bucket in your lap.

Related: The Shallows $55, Piranha 3D $25, Sharknado (zero dollars)

Ng Sez: $69

August 17th
The Happytime Murders


Honestly I should have concluded this Summer's movie coverage with Mission Impossible, but I had to do August solely so I could talk about this one- undoubtedly the weirdest idea I've ever had the pleasure of doing a writeup for.  Soooo there was this Muppet/Sesame Street-like TV program in the 70s and 80s, except all the puppets on the show existed in real life, and now in 2018 they start turning up dead.  This is an R-rated film noir about the puppet detective who has to follow shady characters into gin joints and strip clubs to get to the bottom of these Happytime Murders, before he gets knocked off himself.

...and no I didn't just make that up, this movie really exists, I just can't prove it because they haven't released a trailer yet.  I could see a show like this becoming a cult hit on a streaming service or Adult Swim, but someone spending millions of dollars to promote it slash release it in thousands of theaters?  Personally I won't believe it until I see it with my own eyes on opening night!

Related: The Muppets (2011) $87, The Dark Crystal $41, Team America: World Police $33

Ng Sez: $11


After a horrific car accident kills his wife and kids, brilliant Doctor Keanu Reeves will stop at nothing to bring them back to life.

Keanu's riding high off the goodwill generated by the frankly incredible things he's done in the past few years to anyone who looked at his dog the wrong way, so I could see him turning this fairly stereotypical sci-fi trope into a decent hit.  Won't set the world on fire but I'm down for some mind-bending synthetic action, so count me in if the reviews are better than expected!

Related: John Wick 2 $92, The Lazarus Effect $26, Flatliners (2017) $17

Ng Sez: $59
---

Ng's Top Five Picks:
1. Avengers Infinity $646
2. Incredibles 2 $439
3. Jurassic Fallen $393
4. Deadpool 2 $319
5. Solo $265
« Last Edit: July 16, 2018, 01:22:28 am by Ngamer »
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Re: Hear Yeezy Hear Yeezy
« Reply #1 on: April 25, 2018, 05:25:09 am »
Summer movie topics are a Ten+ Year Tradition around these parts; here are the links to all previous seasons in case you'd like to take a look back.

The Summer of 2007 - http://elite.speedrunwiki.com/forum/index.php?topic=1418
* An incredible May lineup of Spider-Man 3, Shrek 3, and Pirates 3 kicked off what became the #1 Summer of all-time at the box office (though it wouldn't have gotten there without strong returns from Ratatouille, Harry Potter 5, The Bourne Ultimatum, The Simpson Movie, plus the surprising successes of Transformers, Knocked Up, and Superbad).

The Summer of 2008 - http://elite.speedrunwiki.com/forum/index.php?topic=13628
* While not a record breaking season, '08 DID feature one of the most incredible runs in box office history by The Dark Knight, along with some very respectable showings by Iron Man, Indy 4, Hancock, Get Smart, and Wall*E.

The Summer of 2009 - http://elite.speedrunwiki.com/forum/index.php?topic=14599
* Transformers 2, Harry Potter 6, and Up delivered the goods, and we were blindsided by the success of Star Trek and The Hangover, but weaker than expected returns from pretty much the whole rest of the slate resulted in a somewhat disappointing season at the box office.

The Summer of 2010 - http://elite.speedrunwiki.com/forum/index.php?topic=15297
* Toy Story 3, Inception, Twilight 2, and Iron Man 2 got the job done, and Karate Kid/Despicable Me turned into surprise hits, but nearly everything else embarrassed itself (Shrek 4, Prince of Persia, The A-Team).  The result was consecutive disappointing Summer seasons.

The Summer of 2011 - http://elite.speedrunwiki.com/forum/index.php?topic=15779
* Harry Potter 8 was huge, Bridesmaids and Rise of the Planet of the Apes were unexpectedly major hits, and most of the other big releases performed reasonably well (Thor, Captain America, Transformers 3, Hangover 2), making 2011 one of the biggest Summers ever.  The only especially notable bombs were The Green Lantern and Conan the Barbarian.

The Summer of 2012 - http://elite.speedrunwiki.com/forum/index.php?topic=17011
* Dark Knight Rises, Amazing Spiderman, and Brave put up blockbuster numbers as we had expected, and there were some pleasant surprises like Ted and Magic Mike coming out of nowhere to make a ton of money.  Battleship was the only real bomb... but the story of the season was obviously The Avengers destroying the opening weekend record and racking up the 3rd largest box office total in history.  In the end my prediction was correct- it was the highest grossing Summer season we've seen and helped make 2012 overall the biggest year for movies in history!  (With a notable assist from an incredible holiday season where Hunger Games/Skyfall/Hobbit/Twilight and the Oscar films all did very well.)

The Summer of 2013 - http://forums.the-elite.net/forum/index.php?topic=18876
* Well, I got it half right.  I predicted the '13 Summer season would start out hot before tailing off and coming up a little short of record numbers, and that's just what happened: Iron Man 3, Despicable Me 3, Man of Steel, Monsters U, Fast 6, Star Trek Into Darkness, and World War Z were huge hits (all grossed over $200 million), but a few flops like After Earth, The Internship, and The Lone Ranger held the season back.  However I went on to guess that a somewhat weaker than usual Holiday slate would likewise hold the full year to below-record numbers... whoops!  Turns out the box office exploded from October on to earn a full $11 billion for the year, smashing the old record.   You've got Catching Fire/Gravity/Desolation of Smaug/Lone Survivor to thank for that, though of course the real #1 story was Frozen coming out of nowhere to make $400 million.

The Summer of 2014 - http://forums.the-elite.net/forum/index.php?topic=19569
* For the first time ever an August release was the #1 story of the season- Guardians of the Galaxy surpassed all expectations to headline the Summer.  There were some other huge opening weekends as well, from X-Men: Days of Future Past, Godzilla, Amazing Spiderman 2, and Transformers: Age of Extinction, but all four films collapsed in their second week and contributed to what was overall a pretty disappointing season.  Fortunately the year ended with one of the stronger holiday seasons we'd seen: Big Hero 6, Interstellar, The Hobbit: Battle of the Five Armies and Hunger Games: Mockingjay were all very successful.  However even with American Sniper turning into a totally unexpected runaway phenomenon in December, the year couldn't quite match up to 2013's record total.

The Summer of 2015 - https://forums.the-elite.net/index.php?topic=20320
* Avengers 2 delivered as expected, Minions made bank, Inside Out was a huge hit... but it was Jurassic World that exploded to become the runaway smash of the Summer.  A strong holiday season that featured good results for The Revenant, Spectre, the final Hunger Games film, and (of course) The Force Awakens was enough to just barely put 2015 over the top as the new #1 year in box office history.

The Summer of 2016 - topic lost to space and time in a tragic black hole accident
* Rogue One did extremely well but couldn't match the success of the previous December's Star Wars release... and it didn't have to!  Much better than expected results for Deadpool and The Jungle Book and Zootopia combined with the (as expected) huge bank for Finding Dory and Moana and Marvel's Civil War were enough to easily shatter all previous records in making 2016 Hollywood's new biggest year ever.

The Summer of 2017 - https://forums.the-elite.net/index.php?topic=21939
* The year got off to a fantastic start thanks to Beauty & The Beast and a very powerful finish courtesy of The Last Jedi... but overall the box office was down compared to '16 and a disappointing Summer season was largely to blame.  Wonder Woman stunned the world and Marvel's Spiderman Homecoming and Guardians of the Galaxy 2 held their own, but almost everything else either slightly underperformed or straight up bombed (looking at you, Transformers 5).
---

Now let's check how I did last year!

Ng's Top Five Picks for Summer 2017:
1. Spiderman Homecoming @ 319
2. Guardians 2 @ 293
3. Despicable Me 4 @ 291
4. Wonder Woman @ 267
5. Dunkirk @ 252

ACTUAL RESULTS
1. Wonder Woman $413
2. Guardians 2 $340
3. Spiderman Homecoming $334
4. Despicable Me 3 $265
5. Dunkirk $188
6. Pirates 5 $173 (I said $217)
7. Cars 3 $153 (I said $169)
8. War for the Planet of the Apes $147 (I said $166)
9. Transformers 5 $130 (I said $213)
10. Girls Trip $115 (I said $83)

Overall I'd say I did pretty well... correctly identified the top six films, had Despicable/Dunkirk/Pirates in the right order behind the Marvel entries, and my money estimates were close across the board.  There were only two major blunders: vastly underestimating Wonder Woman (which everyone did, to be fair) and vastly overestimating Transformers (never been more happy to look stupid!).
« Last Edit: April 25, 2018, 01:45:30 pm by Ngamer »
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TheFlash

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Can we just make it required for everyone to post their top 5 so that way we know who is really the best at predicting? Thanks.

I will even break from tradition and post my predictions immediately with no more than a few minutes' thought.

TheFlash

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Avengers
Solo
Incredibles 2
Deadpool
Jurassic World

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Avengers
Incredibles 2
Solo
Jurassic World
Ant Man 2

Eh...why not? Thanks for the write-ups, it informs me what is actually coming out since I usually pay no attention to these things!

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are all these movies going to be fucking shitters?
LAS

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Avengers
Solo
Incredibles 2
Jurassic World
Deadpool 2

Will be seeing; Marvel Movies, Jurassic World, Deadpool, Incredibles.
« Last Edit: April 29, 2018, 01:03:31 am by matt8k »
Frigate doesn't complete in Melbourne 

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wtf Deadpool isn't in the MCU?
~ S T A Y ❄ T R U E ~   |   ~ S T A Y ❄ B L E S S E D ~   |   Verax Maneret

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Correct, Deadpool technically exists in the FOX-owned X-Men shared universe, rather than the Disney-owned Marvel Cinematic Universe.  But he's in a weird limbo because even the popular mutants from his own universe don't want to hang out with him, on account of what a weirdo he is.

In other news, Avengers came up a little short on opening day, missing the #1 record by 13 million dollars.

But the final numbers are now in and... yikes oh mikes!  I was impressed by Infinity's opening day (as well I should have been), but turns out that was just a light warmup lap.  After losing Friday to The Force Awakens, Avengers destroyed Star Wars by $14 million on Saturday, then bested it by a further $9 million on Sunday.

All told that comes to a weekend total of $258 million, easily topping the old mark of 248.  And it wasn't just a world-beating hit in North America- the movie smashed weekend records in nearly every country for a combined total of over $640 million.  That tops the old record for a worldwide total... by 100 million.  Amazingly it accomplished all that without opening in China (now the second most important market on the globe) or Russia (also a pretty big one).

Next on the horizon: trying to stay over $150 million next time out, to beat Star Wars for biggest second weekend.  With all the other studios too afraid to challenge this juggernaut even in its second outing, it should have a great shot.
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the FOX-owned X-Men shared universe, rather than the Disney-owned Marvel Cinematic Universe

Not for long!

https://www.polygon.com/2017/12/14/16778224/disney-fox-deal-movies-tv-rights

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Re: Let's discuss the 2018 Summer Movies [Avengers did it!]
« Reply #10 on: May 06, 2018, 08:09:33 am »
Avengers
Solo
Jurassic World
Incredibles 2
Dead Pool 2

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Re: Let's discuss the 2018 Summer Movies [Avengers did it!]
« Reply #11 on: May 14, 2018, 09:40:00 pm »
Third Weekend Roundup
Final numbers are in- Infinity pulled down $62 million domestically this past weekend.  The bad news: that's way off The Force Awaken's 90 mil and only the 4th best third weekend on record, behind Black Panther's 66.  With Deadpool arriving next week to cut out its legs it seems unlikely that Avengers will be able to maintain its lead on Panther and will have to settle for being "only" the 4th biggest movie ever domestically.

The good news: Infinity War absolutely killed it internationally this weekend thanks largely to a huge $200 million opening in China (selling more than twice as many tickets as any previous comic book movie there).  It's already the first comic book film to pass the $1 billion mark outside of the US, has already climbed into the #5 position worldwide, and is a virtual lock to surpass both Force Awakens and Titanic to finish as the #2 box office smash in history.
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WHOOPSIES, got a little ahead of myself with that topic title!  Deadpool did smash the opening day record for an R rated film with $53 million (besting the 50 that It put together last year), but it was very front loaded and finished the weekend with $126, 6 million off the record.  That's still a fantastic total and it's pretty clear it only missed out on the #1 finish because so many people are still heading to Avengers for the first or second or third time.  (Despite the inter-Marvel competition Infinity War amazingly dropped only 52% in its 4th weekend, scoring another $29 million to almost reach $600 domestically.)

Yup, bit of a shame that Deadpool got pinched with unlucky timing for the release window, but the sad thing is... it's only going to get worse.  Launching behind what will go down as the third-biggest movie ever was bad enough, and now its second weekend numbers are going to be destroyed by a Memorial Weekend Star Wars release.  Poor DP!

Between these three huge films and the extra day for the holiday we might be heading into the biggest 4 day total in US box office history- should be fun!
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Re: Let's discuss the 2018 Summer Movies [Can Star Wars Do It Again?]
« Reply #13 on: May 30, 2018, 10:03:50 pm »
Once upon a time every studio dreamed of a $100 million opening, but in 2018 the $103 million Solo pulled down in its first four days has to be considered a bit of a disappointment. Rogue One and its $155 mil start was considered incredible at the time and only looks more spectacular in hindsight; clearly having only 5 months between Star Wars releases instead of the usual 12 was a mistake, and I doubt Disney will repeat it. (Though rumors of the movie's troubled filming and reshoots surely held it back as well.)

Also not quite up to par: Deadpool's large 57% drop in its second weekend. DP2 still made $54 million for a new total of $219, which is highly respectable, but its now fallen over 20 mil behind the pace of DP1 and is clearly being hurt by this month's tough competition. Speaking of which, Avengers was the weekend's bright spot, continuing to astound by dropping only 24% despite two huge new releases displacing it in most screens across the continent.

Overall the holiday weekend came in at around $220 million- one of the better showings for the year but nowhere near the $400 we saw at the launch of both Black Panther and Infinity War.

Things finally cool off next weekend with no major releases, but after that its back to Blockbuster Season with Ocean's 8/Incredibles 2/Jurassic World all looking to have huge openings in June.
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Re: Let's discuss the 2018 Summer Movies [Can Star Wars Do It Again?]
« Reply #14 on: June 20, 2018, 05:06:58 pm »
The Incredibles opened to $72 million domestically, which was considered fantastic at the time.  Last weekend the sequel hit that number... in the first day alone!

And yowza, it ended up being an ever better weekend for Incredibles than that big Friday indicated.  Final numbers are in and I2 hit $183 million, destroying the old animated film record of $135.  That's good for the 8th largest opening ever domestically (edging out Civil War).  As I mentioned the movie continued to strength every day thanks to the family appeal; it was only the 14th largest Friday but then 10th biggest SAT and 6th highest-grossing Sunday.

Fallen Kingdom arrives on Friday and though it's not going to match Jurassic World's Earth-shattering opening ($208 million) it might get close, which could result in an all-timer of a combined weekend given how well Incredibles 2 is likely to hold up.  Should be exciting!

Speaking of which, here's the updated Summer Standings:
1. Avengers Infinity - $666
2. Deadpool 2 - $297
3. Incredibles 2 - $233
4. Solo - $196
5. Ocean's 8 - $84

Looking perfect for my prediction!
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Ignominious Sin

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Definitely keen to see Deadpool 2. I never saw the first though. It looks so good!
The elite as we know it is done. I'm emailing my people. Enjoy a dead forum.

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Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom finished the weekend at $148 million, down from three years ago but still a very respectable opening given the large family-film overlap with Incredibles.  Combined it was the second largest weekend of the year so far in the US, behind only April 27th (when Infinity War launched).  Fun facts:

- movies opened to over $100 million dollars back-to-back for only the second time ever.  the last time was way back in May 2007 [at the birth of the Summer Previews!] when Shrek The Third was followed up by Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End, both of which finished around $120 million

- we've locked up the record for highest-grossing June ever at the American box office... and this past month + Avengers has us on a record-setting pace for the entire year as well.  we've just crossed the 6 billion dollar mark overall, the previous best at this point in the year was only 5.5 billion

- Fallen Kingdom will probably hold on fine domestically- but even if it doesn't it won't matter much as it's a certified smash hit internationally.  the movie's already up to $800 million worldwide meaning it will have no trouble becoming the 35th film to crack the 1 Billion Dollar Club

Updated Summer Rankings
1. Infinity War - $671
2. Incredibles 2 - $384
3. Deadpool 2 - $306
4. Solo - $204
5. Fallen Kingdom - $193

Solo will drop another spot tomorrow, the real question is if anything will be able to knock it out of the Top Five.  Maybe Ant Man in two weeks, or Mission Impossible at the end of July?  Stay tuned!
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TheFlash

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- we've locked up the record for highest-grossing June ever at the American box office..

Is that inflation-adjusted?

What about the number of tickets sold, that seems a lot more meaningful when comparing across years.

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Movie maniacs prefer raw dollar totals because they immediately tell us how successful a film is going to be.  If you read an article saying The First Purge sold 1.9 million tickets in its opening weekend, that sounds pretty pathetic compared to Solo's 9.4 million.  But a movie buff knows that Star Wars films cost hundreds of dollars to make and even more hundreds of dollars to advertise whereas horror/suspense movies are always light on special effects and made on a shoestring budget.  Meaning when I instead read that Solo is sitting at $380 million worldwide compared to the Purge crossing the $50 million mark after only a week, I'm immediately aware of the first number being a major disappointment (worth shutting down SW one-off movies for at least a couple years) while the second is extremely promising (ie you can guarantee there will be a sequel within the next 18 months).

The other aspect is, a high school kid paid $18 dollars to see the midnight showing of Ant Man in 3D on a huge IMAX screen last weekend.  Is his ticket worth exactly as much as the one his grandmother paid 3 dollars for when she saw the matinee of Diane Keaton's Book Club at the second run theater on the following Tuesday?  The movie studios sure as heck don't think so, and with good reason (they take a larger cut of the ticket sales during the first two weeks of a movie's release).  That's also a factor in making dollar totals more attractive in terms of what's a success and what's a failure.  The studios would be financially motivated to continue creating huge must-see-this-weekend-so-I-don't-get-spoiled tent pole releases like The Avengers, even if older-adult options like Book Club would do strong business for four months straight and ultimately sell more tickets than super hero movies.

All that being said... we won't know exactly how many tickets were sold this year until the MPAA releases the official numbers in January, but based on 2017's prices we can accurately estimate that about 745 million people have paid to see a movie in the United States so far this year.  If we have a strong Holiday season, more people will pay to watch a movie at a North American theater in 2018 than in any year since 2004.  (2002/3/4 were crazy strong and can probably never be touched, but '18 has a solid chance at #4 all time.)

That's nice and all, but the other thing to factor in is that the international appeal of theaters has EXPLODED in the past decade, particularly in China and India.  If what you care about is the total number of people worldwide paying to see movies, at this point 2018 is a virtual lock to take home that title.
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The results are in.  Yes there is an Infinity War Boost, and it's worth... 20 million dollars!  Ant Man and the Wasp opened to $76 million last weekend, landing comfortably in the middle of the previous MCU films (ahead of original Ant Man/Thor/Captain America and just behind Dr. Strange/Thor 2).  This leaves it with about a 50/50 chance of hunting down Solo for a Top Five position this Summer; we'll see how well it's able to hold up.

Other quick hitters:

- Incredibles pushed past $500 million over the weekend and is now the #1 animated film of all time

- Fallen Kingdom will reach $350 million in the US this evening, but its internal appeal is so strong that it's already become the 35th film to hit 1 billion dollars worldwide... and could easily crack the Top 15 by next month

- Infinity War reached the $2 billion milestone on the same day, and by the time the next weekend actuals arrive it will have surpassed The Force Awakens for the lifetime worldwide #3 position  (yet it's still going to have to settle for being only the #2 movie of 2018 in the US)

- Ocean's 8 is going to reach $130 million domestically and $250 million worldwide tomorrow.  with a production budget of less than 100 mil, that means it's officially A Hit

- nice start for The First Purge, already over $40 million in its first week

Nothing too crazy at the box office this weekend with just Skyscraper and a new Hotel Transylvania opening.  Things heat up soon though, with Mamma Mia/The Equalizer/Mission Impossible all launching within the next two weeks!
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TheFlash

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I thought Ocean Eight was way better than Jurassic World.

TheFlash

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Everyone needs to go see Mission Impossible or Ant Man otherwise Ng will end up with a perfect prediction for the year. However it looks like it was a pretty easy year, at least to find the top 5-6 movies.

TheFlash

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I enjoyed the documentary on Mister Rogers. But Mission Impossible made 10x the money. That seems kinda wrong.