Author Topic: 2018 NFL Picks & Discussion  (Read 728 times)

Ngamer

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2018 NFL Picks & Discussion
« on: September 02, 2018, 06:49:52 pm »
Another intense season of NFL action kicks off on Thursday night as the Eagles begin their Championship defense against a tough Falcons squad.  You'd think Philly would be in trouble considering they're going to have to rely on their backup quarterback in this game... but the GOAT Foles sure didn't slow them down in the playoffs last year, so who knows?!  Get in on the fun by playing in an Elite pool this year:

(goal: just pick a winner of each game)
Straight Pick'Em: http://fantasy.espn.com/nfl-pigskin-pickem/2018/en/
Group Name: The NFL Elite
Password: elite
ESPN has a cool feature- if you played last year, as soon as you create your entry you can "Rejoin Last Year's Group" automatically, so take that option to get into the pool the easiest way.  If you're new to the pool and can't find the group through a search, fill out your Week 1 picks and then just click the "Join Group" button located directly on our public page: http://fantasy.espn.com/nfl-pigskin-pickem/2018/en/group?groupID=17576

(goal: pick one team that will for sure win each week, mess up once and you're dead)
Survival Picks: http://fantasy.espn.com/nfl-eliminator-challenge/2018/en/group?groupID=58653
Group Name: Elite Survival
Password: apples
Nate is hosting our Elimination Challenge from ESPN this year.

(goal: pick 5 teams per week that you think can cover their spread, for instance winning by 10 pts when Vegas said they would only win by 7)
Spread Betting aka the Las Vegas SuperContest: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1-Oa2HrWgylOC0Hn8FeWGzWFARrfb3Y3rFV6ZjivZfos/edit?usp=sharing

Edit in the 5 teams you'd like to bet on each week beneath your name.  Would you like to compete but don't have a space on the sheet?  Post here and you'll be added in!
---

But wait, there's more- this is also the thread to post your 2018 Super Bowl prediction!  No one in Elite history has ever gotten one correct but maybe this is the year?

Gosh though mister what about last year's results?  I'm glad you asked...

PIGSKIN PICK'EM 2017
Shep took the season title, narrowly edging out wiff and Neo with 164 point against their 162.  It was a down year however as our winning performance was only at the 97.2 percentile worldwide, we'll have to look to improve that in 2018.

SUPERCONTEST 2017
QB scored 52.5 wins and was never seriously challenged in the back half of the season, with the next closest competitors being wiff and Jimbo at 47.5 and 46.5.  It was the most impressive showing the Elite has seen since Youse's victory in the competition's inaugural season 7 years prior, as QB became only the third Eliter to go over the vaunted 3 wins per week mark on the way to a seasonal Championship.

Previous winners and their avg per week:
Youse w/ 3.29 in 2011
Moto w/ 3.06 in 2012
QB w/ 2.74 in 2013
Ngamer w/ 2.79 in 2014
Come w/ 2.85 in 2015
Matt8k w/ 2.79 in 2016
QB w/ 3.09 in 2017

It took seven years but we finally have a repeat Champ!  We'll see if he can make it two in a row (and three out of eight total).

SUPER BOWL PREDS 2017

Qwec said Raiders > Bucs, whaaaaaat?
Thingy said Cowboys > Steelers, decent guess as they won 9 and 13 games
Matt8k said Steelers > Seahawks, solid guess though the Hawks missed the playoffs (despite winning 9 games)
Ngamer said Steelers > Seahawks, ditto
wheat said Vikings > Titans, not bad as the Titans won a playoff game and the Vikes made the NFC Finals

Ace said Patriots > Browns, an incredible combination of brilliance and failure (Browns went a historic 0-16)
Grav said Giants > Patriots, again very close on one side and way off on the other

And the winner with the closest pred is

Nate, who said Patriots > Cowboys.  Cowboys also missed the playoffs but as mentioned, only by 1 game, so he easily outpaces the guesses from Ace and Grav.
« Last Edit: September 16, 2018, 08:20:23 pm by Ngamer »
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Ngamer

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Re: 2018 NFL Picks & Discussion [Post your Super Bowl guess!]
« Reply #1 on: September 02, 2018, 08:16:48 pm »
Know what would be fun?  Checking how my bets last year turned out!

Ng Bets The 2017 Season

TOTAL WINS FOR THE SEASON
* INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
UNDER 9.0

Result: 4-12, WIN.  Easiest money of my life!  Luck's health was looking shaky entering Week 1 which made hammering this line an easy decision, but even if it hadn't been... what made people think this team had above .500 talent?  It's just massive disrespect for the rest of the division, but in reality the Jags have a good D, the Texans have an exciting do-anything QB, and even the Titans talent level easily outclasses Indy these days.

* PITTSBURGH STEELERS
OVER 10.5

Result: 13-3, WIN.  Pittsburgh wasn't the typical unbeatable juggernaut you'd expect of a team that goes for 13+ wins, but turns out you don't need to be when the rest of the AFC is this mediocre.  Another pretty comfortable victory for the Ngster.

* BALTIMORE RAVENS
UNDER 9.0

Result: 9-7, PUSH.  I'm actually not sure how the Ravens got so close to making the playoffs considering they looked like garbage all season, but luckily they did the world a favor by blowing it in W17 to avoid a boring Wild Card game loss and save me some dough.  Thanks Flacco and company!

* NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
UNDER 12.5

Result: 13-3, LOSS.  It's insane that a team is expected to win 13 games every year or else their regular season will be considered a disappointment.  It's absurd how it always happens.  Whoops, apologies for the disrespect, Tom and Bill!

SEASON LONG PLAYER PROPS
* Tom Brady total passing touchdowns during 2017-18 NFL regular season
Over 33.5

Result: 32 TD, LOSS.  Tom was beyond Terrific, leading the league with 286 yards per game on the most passing attempts while throwing the fewest interceptions (per attempt).  His touchdown total juuuust missed though as he settled for #3 in that category (behind Wilson at 34 and Wentz at 33).

TRADITIONAL ALWAYS LOSES BET
* 6 Teams to Miss the Playoffs in 2017 (all 6 must miss):
Jets, Browns, 49ers, Colts, Bears, Rams

Result: Wins by team, in order: 5, 0, 6, 4, 5, 11.  LOSS.  Noooo it happened again (for the tenth year in a row), 5 great picks and blew it on the last one!  My fault, I got too greedy and took two teams from the same division and as always it burned me.  I actually thought the Rams would be decent, I just figured the Seahawks and Cardinals would be so good that it wouldn't matter.  Unfortunately the Cards lost their stud RB on like the 7th play of the season and then the Rams broke their QB's arm in W7, and that was all she wrote.

(rest of these were small bets for long shot odds)

* Most Receiving Yards, Regular Season
Brandin Cooks
29 to 1 odds (11th most likely)

Result: 1082 yards, LOSS.  The #1 target of the league's top passer felt like a good one to take a flier on, and Cooks did have a great season.  Problem was, he wasn't Tom's top target after all (Gronk actually stayed on the field long enough to catch 4 more passes for 2 more yards total) and in any case Brady spread the ball around too much for any individual Pat to have a chance.  The winner here was instead the pre-season favorite Antonio Brown, with an amazing 1533 yards despite every defense knowing exactly what the Steelers wanted to do week to week.

* Player To Win MVP
David Johnson
33 to 1 odds (14th most likely)

Result: Dead 20 minutes into the season, LOSS.  As mentioned above the Card's hopes for the season were dashed when they lost Johnson for the year in the very first game.  Even so it would have been very difficult for him to outperform Brown, Le'Veon Bell, and Todd Gurley as the most deserving non-QB contender.

* Most Rushing Yards, Regular Season
LeSean McCoy,
9 to 1 odds (3rd most likely)

Result: 1138 yards, LOSS.  As I expected McCoy was a workhorse back (2nd most attempts) for a team that loved to run the ball, so he definitely had a good shot, but his 4.0 yards per carry weren't quite enough in the end.  He was narrowly bested by Gurley and Kareem Hunt, who did more with less over the course of the season (4.7 and 4.9 yards per attempt).

Finally there's the traditional one bet with Third, which last year was

* LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
OVER 7.5 total wins

Result: 9-7, WIN.  New city, same Bolts- disastrous first half including blown 4th quarter leads, a self combusting rookie kicker, and a 0-4 record.  ...before realizing HEY, we're actually the best team in the division and going on a second half tear, doing just enough to barely miss the playoffs.  That's fine though as long as these .500ish seasons keep winning me bets!
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TheFlash

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Re: 2018 NFL Picks & Discussion [Post your Super Bowl guess!]
« Reply #2 on: September 03, 2018, 01:28:08 am »
Can you add a tl;dr version of the leagues to join and the deadline for each?

Ngamer

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Re: 2018 NFL Picks & Discussion [Post your Super Bowl guess!]
« Reply #3 on: September 03, 2018, 02:12:18 am »
Here you go:
(goal: just pick a winner of each game)
Straight Pick'Em: http://fantasy.espn.com/nfl-pigskin-pickem/2018/en/
Group Name: The NFL Elite
Password: elite

(goal: pick one team that will for sure win each week, mess up once and you're dead)
Survival Picks: http://fantasy.espn.com/nfl-eliminator-challenge/2018/en/group?groupID=58653
Group Name: Elite Survival
Password: apples
Nate is hosting our Elimination Challenge from ESPN this year.

(goal: pick 5 teams per week that you think can cover their spread, for instance winning by 10 pts when Vegas said they would only win by 7)
Spread Betting aka the Las Vegas SuperContest: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1-Oa2HrWgylOC0Hn8FeWGzWFARrfb3Y3rFV6ZjivZfos/edit?usp=sharing
By 7pm Thursday (kickoff of Eagles/Falcons game)
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NathanStinson

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Re: 2018 NFL Picks & Discussion [Post your Super Bowl guess!]
« Reply #4 on: September 04, 2018, 09:35:44 am »
Off the cuff Super Bowl prediction is Patriots > Packers
Keeper of Jimbo's Pillow

TheFlash

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Re: 2018 NFL Picks & Discussion [Post your Super Bowl guess!]
« Reply #5 on: September 04, 2018, 02:27:39 pm »
By 7pm Thursday (kickoff of Eagles/Falcons game)

Thanks, I've filled out the whole season on the ESPN ones but unlike the last several years I am going to reserve the right to modify my picks at a later date if I choose to.

For the SuperBet I'd like to negotiate an auto-fill system for my entries again this year. I would like to also reserve the right to modify those picks on a weekly basis if possible.  I'd also like to see an auto-fill backup system offered to every participant...once accepted it would fill in default picks for them in case they forgot to show up to make those picks each week. This should help avoid the situation where players quit for the season after missing just one week of picks.

TheFlash

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Re: 2018 NFL Picks & Discussion [Post your Super Bowl guess!]
« Reply #6 on: September 04, 2018, 02:31:31 pm »
Vikings > Jaguars

wishiwasfamous

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Re: 2018 NFL Picks & Discussion [Post your Super Bowl guess!]
« Reply #7 on: September 05, 2018, 04:12:10 pm »
Falcons > Steelers

T

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Re: 2018 NFL Picks & Discussion [Post your Super Bowl guess!]
« Reply #8 on: September 05, 2018, 04:49:42 pm »
Rams > Patriots

TheFlash

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Re: 2018 NFL Picks & Discussion [Post your Super Bowl guess!]
« Reply #9 on: September 06, 2018, 06:11:22 pm »
Let's try the one about the 5 largest underdogs all covering. But I want the freedom to change it later.

Ngamer

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Re: 2018 NFL Picks & Discussion [Post your Super Bowl guess!]
« Reply #10 on: September 06, 2018, 08:15:32 pm »
Let's try the one about the 5 largest underdogs all covering. But I want the freedom to change it later.
Consider your wish... granted.
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Ngamer

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Re: 2018 NFL Picks & Discussion [Post your Super Bowl guess!]
« Reply #11 on: September 09, 2018, 04:59:40 am »
Ng's 2018 Helmets





Saints 34, Patriots 30
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Ngamer

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Re: 2018 NFL Picks & Discussion [Post your Super Bowl guess!]
« Reply #12 on: September 10, 2018, 12:53:33 am »

...are you kidding me?



Honestly it's just ridiculous (and you could even say unfair) how many incredible moments like this we've gotten to experience since 1992, as Packer fans.  This one's got to be in the top five though, even against all those other great memories, just for the sheer insanity of the 0 to 100 enthusiasm level of the fanbase at halftime versus when Cobb skipped into the endzone.
« Last Edit: September 10, 2018, 01:06:33 am by Ngamer »
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wheatrich

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Re: 2018 NFL Picks & Discussion [Post your Super Bowl guess!]
« Reply #13 on: September 10, 2018, 11:07:34 pm »
Counting preseason the bears have entered the 4th quarter a combined 47-6 in the last two games and lost both.  This coach is gonna be irritating, fucking great for three quarters, then worse than at least half the fans in the stands in the fourth.

packers will NEVER sign kaepernick.   No way mccarthy isn't a stand for the anthem or else type of guy.

not even mad, seen that movie plenty of times, he always makes one super ridic throw for a TD in bears games, covered cobb with the deep safety with no help again, long ass TD again.  Seen it all before.  All we had to do was keep running the ball, or fuller catch that ball thrown straight to him.

Ngamer

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Re: 2018 NFL Picks & Discussion [Post your Super Bowl guess!]
« Reply #14 on: September 13, 2018, 06:23:28 pm »
[5:20 PM] ~Ng: SURVIVAL UPDATE: out of 16 players this season, 10 were killed off in W1.  Saints got Neo, Qwec, Sharp, Thingy, caddy.  Steelers tie murdered Matt and Cyber, Lions suckage cost Ngamer and Third.  also Clark forgot to make a pick
[5:21 PM] ~Ng: only one still standing tall and proud is QB's Unblemished Unit
[5:21 PM] ~Ng: (well, also Jimbo Grav Nate Mike and Bertin)
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Ngamer

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Re: 2018 NFL Picks & Discussion
« Reply #15 on: September 16, 2018, 09:05:54 pm »
The Pack is undefeated heading into W3 and I should be jumping for joy, considering it took two minor miracles to get there.  And I am... but sorry, that game was absolute garbage!



- the roughing call last week was fine; Clay Matthews made a boneheaded rookie-level mistake on third down to extend things, if the Bear would have been able to finish that drive it would have been fair play.  but there was ZERO wrong with his hit on Cousins to force the game-ending INT in this one.  wasn't late, didn't lead with his head, didn't drive him into the ground or land on him... unbelievable to decide the game on a call like that

- the disgusting thing is, the NFL invented the new QB protection rule because their cash cow Packers quarterback had his shoulder broken by a (now illegal) Vikings tackle.  only to have a Packers win stripped away and handed to the Vikings on the Cousins call... and even though on four separate occasions earlier in the game Rodgers was hit harder than that, after having delivered his throw earlier than that, and driven into the ground more forcefully than that (while sometimes getting smacked in the facemask on the way down)   

- dumb calls happen, that one was just super frustrating because it came on the heels of calling off the Jimmy Graham touchdown at 6 minutes that would have likewise sealed the win.  the Vikings D lineman fell over and Taylor followed him to the ground, it wasn't tripping or anything dirty and shouldn't have been called a hold

- and sure, holding calls are often questionable but it was particularly cruel to do that to Graham after his second quarter "drop" down the sideline where the defender reached in before the ball arrived and wrapped around his elbow, but it didn't draw a flag for pass interference

- the push off call on Davonte Adams in the second quarter was also garbage (he flicked his hand out yes but barely made contact with the DB)

- the THIRD game-deciding call was correct, however (stripping the touchdown from I believe Adams).  the defender got enough of the ball that he didn't control it cleanly before landing in the endzone.  that was a legit incomplete; 1 out of 3 still isn't acceptable though

Despite all of the above complaints we still get the win if Aaron doesn't blow all three second half timeouts early by being too slow to get plays in, or fumble that handoff on second and short at the end.  And credit where due, Cousins was fantastic and definitely individually deserving of the win- if his receiving crew ever stops dropping half of his perfectly-thrown balls, I'm not sure this team loses again in 2018!

Final thought: I despise icing the kicker.  Hard to argue with coaches still doing it when it works three times in a row though.  And ultimately the one who comes out of this game looking the worse is me.  I had my choice of kicker in the final round of Fantasy and snubbed Mason Crosby in favor of Carlson because "warm weather/dome kickers are always more reliable."  Which will probably cost me a win this week.  Whoops!
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wheatrich

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Re: 2018 NFL Picks & Discussion
« Reply #16 on: September 16, 2018, 09:36:22 pm »
the defender did not defy the laws of physics--15 yard penalty.

Jimbo

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Re: 2018 NFL Picks & Discussion
« Reply #17 on: September 16, 2018, 10:03:37 pm »
Can't say much more than what Ngamer said, I felt all the same emotion too. Clay got the flag thrown I think because of last week's garbage on Trubisky late in the game as well. On a positive note, 29-29 is now checked off the list of "scores that have never happened". Woo!

Ngamer

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Re: 2018 NFL Picks & Discussion
« Reply #18 on: September 24, 2018, 12:57:04 am »
[5:20 PM] ~Ng: SURVIVAL UPDATE: out of 16 players this season, 10 were killed off in W1.  Saints got Neo, Qwec, Sharp, Thingy, caddy.  Steelers tie murdered Matt and Cyber, Lions suckage cost Ngamer and Third.  also Clark forgot to make a pick
[5:21 PM] ~Ng: only one still standing tall and proud is QB's Unblemished Unit
[5:21 PM] ~Ng: (well, also Jimbo Grav Nate Mike and Bertin)

UPDATE - Nate and Grav were knocked out by the Redskins(!?) in W2 when they lost to the Colts.  Bertin was eliminated that same week by the Seahawks, who lost to the Bears.

QB and Mike have just been killed by the Vikings, who were clowned at home by the lowly Bills.

That means your Survival Champion of 2018 is Jimbo, who has made it past W3 for the first time in his life!  His picks this year:
Vikings > 49ers
Bears > Seahawks
Chiefs > 49ers
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Cyberwrath87

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Re: 2018 NFL Picks & Discussion
« Reply #19 on: September 24, 2018, 01:22:00 am »
Did they change the way the Survival challenge works this year? How are people that lost W1 still making picks in subsequent weeks? (and why would you?) Also doesn't a tie count as nothing and you continue to survive?

Ngamer

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Re: 2018 NFL Picks & Discussion
« Reply #20 on: September 24, 2018, 02:06:24 am »
ESPN has some kind of scoring system where you could still take first place if you get 16 out of 17 picks right, assuming everyone else in the world missed once as well.  So you're still allowed to continue guessing to improve your rank... but I call that dumb, it's All or Nothing in my book.

On closer inspection however it appears the background for Ties is just white instead of the usual red when you guess wrong.  If we want to play it that way, Cyber and Matt could be considered still alive alongside Jimbo (though if they get knocked out the same week as Jim I'd consider him the winner, as a tiebreaker advantage.)
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